Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Northport, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:55PM Friday August 7, 2020 8:46 AM EDT (12:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:16PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- 326 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Today..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ344 Expires:202008071530;;059429 FZUS53 KAPX 070726 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 326 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ344-071530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northport, MI
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location: 45.13, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 071008 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 608 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

High pressure was over the region early this morning, right behind a departing shallow upper trough, which had earlier helped spark a few light showers in lake breeze convergence zones. Still some remnant cloudiness lingering around, but otherwise things are quiet. Low T/Td depressions in light winds are resulting in some patchy low lying fog. Pushing into the upper Mississippi valley, was some shallow mid level ridging and similar weather as to what is ongoing here in nrn Michigan. All of the convection remains scattered out in the Plains, tied to weak low pressure, a developing warm front, and in an air mass of increased moisture and instability.

It'll be quiet through at least tonight. The high pressure over the region will slowly work eastward through tonight, allowing that weak low pressure and warm front to lift north through the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Winds will be light and fairly variable in direction, before turning to lake breezes this afternoon. No showers expected, with just a scattered cumulus deck of clouds. Patchy fog in some low lying areas through daybreak, maybe that can happen tonight as well, but increased winds in the BL may not allow that.

Highs today will largely be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will again range through the 50s, coolest in low lying areas.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High impact weather potential: Chance of thunderstorms Saturday night - Sunday night.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Saturday morning, weak ridging/nearly zonal flow is anticipated aloft across the western Great Lakes. This general flavor is anticipated to continue through the weekend, only to be occasionally disrupted by several passing mid-level shortwaves. First of such waves is expected to approach the forecast area from the west late Saturday/Saturday evening, followed by several additional perturbations Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Each perturbation and attendant surface reflection is expected to aid in increase precip chances across at least parts of northern Michigan, however, lots of uncertainties prevail through this time frame as the coverage and intensity of showers/storms locally will likely largely hinge on upstream convective development and evolution. None the less, above normal temperatures are expected to continue along with increasing humidity levels, especially Sunday as dew points surge to near 70 degrees.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Timing, coverage and intensity of any showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday.

The period starts under fairly tranquil conditions Saturday morning as surface high pressure settled across the area late this work week gradually shifts eastward through midday. For many, lots of sunshine will be the rule, along with occasionally breezy southwest return flow and high temperatures characterized as some 5-10 degrees above normal . ranging through the mid 80s. The exception to this is expected to lie across parts of eastern upper where mid-upper level height falls will be common ahead of the aforementioned initial shortwave expected to barrel across the Upper MS Valley/Lake Superior and eventually across the far northern reaches of the forecast area toward midday. Pocket of deeper moisture and more robust forcing will warrant at least chance pops north of the bridge by midday, and especially into the afternoon hours . along with more cloud cover.

Beyond this, confidence really diminishes as some guidance suggests the possibility of upstream convective development late in the day, that has the potential to spread southeastward across parts of northern lower Saturday night. Think the overall likelihood of something resembling a long-lived/widespread MCS is pretty low, but the chances aren't entirely zero given nocturnally increasing instability (albeit far from impressive) and slightly better deeper layer shear values on the order of 25-35 kts. At the very least, lingering deeper moisture and upper-level dynamics combined with the aforementioned destabilization will support PoPs across much of northern lower Saturday night.

Occasional shower/storm chances continue Sunday, most numerously across northeast lower as afternoon lake breeze development combined with weak support aloft from another mid-level perturbation and lots of low-level moisture may become the focus for scattered shower and storm development. Highs creep up several more degrees in the mid- upper 80s for most. Dew points varying from the upper 60s to low 70s will certainly make it feel sticky out there and lead to heat indices commonly in the low 90s despite occasional southwest/west wind gusts approaching 15 mph. Worth noting the potential for organized convective development to our west Sunday afternoon, and something we'll have to monitor over the next several days for any impacts locally Sunday night/early Monday. Current trends would suggest the bulk of convection able to survive eastward progress would either hold off until Monday or focus to our south, but we're certainly not out of the woods yet given a juicy and unstable airmass in place along with lots of uncertainties with respect to mesoscale details.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorm chances continue Monday.

Needless to say given the uncertainties around convective evolution Sunday night that low confidence prevails Monday. However, Monday may wind up being the day with the most widespread shower/storm activity ahead of a cold front that's expected to roll across the region late Monday/Monday night. Suppose there's again a non-zero severe weather threat Monday given progged instability upwards of 1,000-1,500+ J/kg MLCAPE and somewhat better deep layer shear values approaching 35-40 kts. Worth keeping an eye on at least. This frontal passage should ultimately lead to quieter sensible weather Tuesday and beyond, along with somewhat cooler temperatures and less humidity through the middle of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 608 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High pressure over the region will slowly work eastward through tonight, allowing weak low pressure and a warm front to lift north through the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Winds will be light and fairly variable in direction, before turning to lake breezes this afternoon. No showers expected, with just a scattered VFR cumulus deck.

MARINE. Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High pressure over the region will slowly work eastward through tonight, allowing weak low pressure and a warm front to lift north through the western Great Lakes. Light winds and lake breezes today, will increase and become a little gusty out of the S/SW on Saturday, with a small chance for some low end advisory speeds and chop over primarily Lake Michigan. These southerly winds will also usher in increasing atmospheric moisture, which has resulted in a chance for showers later Saturday and into next work week. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, but no severe storms are expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 7 mi66 min S 5.1 G 8.9 75°F 1022.4 hPa
45183 15 mi16 min S 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 66°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 44 mi16 min W 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 69°F1021.6 hPa63°F
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 59 mi46 min 62°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 65 mi66 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI22 mi51 minESE 310.00 miFair60°F56°F90%1022.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair55°F52°F90%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW7W11W10
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1 day agoNW6NW7W5W9W8W8W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.