Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 3:02 AM   Moonset 1:04 PM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 913 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Overnight - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. Numerous showers through the night. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West wind 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 030112 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 912 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered storms tonight into Friday

- A few showers remain possible Sunday morning as a weak cold front progresses across the CWA

- Weather turns towards a wetter pattern starting Tuesday as low pressure settles into the Central CONUS.

UPDATE
Issued at 909 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Still expecting showers to expand northeast across the area tonight, tied to deep layer moisture advection ahead of approaching shortwave trough and its attendant cold front. Just enough elevated instability to support of few rumbles of thunder, but definitely not expecting anything too impactful. A mild night, with lows only in the 40s to middle 50s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging overhead will continue to slide over the southern Great Lakes/New England today and tonight. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough will lift from the Midwest over the far northern Great Lakes/Ontario later tonight and Friday. An associated surface cyclone will follow suit, dragging an attendant cold front across the state Friday morning into Friday evening.

Forecast Details:

Showers, scattered storms tonight into Friday -- Mainly light rain chances will move into western portions of the area this afternoon as high clouds continue to spread overhead. Primary rain chances move in later this evening and overnight with the potential for isolated/scattered thunderstorms. While a few stronger storms may form and will be capable of gusty winds and small hail, severe storms are not anticipated at this time. Showers will continue into Friday morning for most areas as the front swings through, ending rain chances from west to east later Friday morning into early Friday afternoon. After chances pass, mostly sunny skies are anticipated as a dry air mass filters into the region. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s are in store with highs on Friday reaching into the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel longwave troughing with embedded height disturbances spanned across North America will keep a non impactful weather pattern for the entirety of the long term period with some precipitation at times. Closed low pressure currently over the Saskatchewan/Montana boarder and a second low over the Pacific northwest will return chances of precipitation later this weekend and early next week.

The first low over the boarder will progress northeast to the southern shore of Hudson Bay by Saturday Morning. A cold front attached to the aformentioned low will drag across the Great Lakes region Saturday night. Additional showers and storms continue beginning on Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period as the secondary low settles into the central CONUS.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-A few showers remain possible Sunday morning as a weak cold front progresses across the CWA: The long term period starts off dry with a shortwave ridge pushing another day of surface high pressure on Saturday. A weak cold front will deliver scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday morning. PWAT's remain near the 90th percentile of climatology for Gaylord, but very weak forcing will keep QPF low. Most areas will remain at a trace but locations with stronger convection could see a general tenth or so of measurable liquid.

-Weather turns towards a wetter pattern starting Tuesday as low pressure settles into the Central CONUS: Attention for the long term period is drawn towards the middle of next week as midlevel low pressure settles into the central CONUS for the remainder of the forecast period. Current guidance is depicting surface low pressure to push a front through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday with additional waves of precip at times Wednesday and Thursday. Still a bit of uncertainty on impacts due to the chance of the front becomes cut off and looses strength/moisture, but potential of heavier showers and thunderstorms for the middle of next week continue to grow for the Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Expect MVFR to IFR producing cigs to spread across the area from southwest to northeast tonight. Showers, with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms, will accompany this band of lower clouds. Will likely see some vis restrictions in the heavier showers. Cigs will lift from west to east on Friday as a cold front crosses the region. No significant wind concerns.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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