Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Jordan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 4:52PM Friday December 6, 2019 6:25 AM EST (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 417 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday evening...
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered rain and snow showers in the morning. Isolated rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the morning.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201912061730;;930352 FZUS53 KAPX 060917 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 417 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-061730-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan, MI
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location: 45.14, -85.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 061112 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 612 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Impactful weather: Minimal. Light snows departing to light lake effect which will wane by this evening. A touch more light snow possible tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A fast moving shortwave and associated weak low pressure/clipper, was moving into nrn Michigan early this morning, with a large expanse of light snow impacting much of the region. The light snow was being driven by WAA and DPVA, and this forcing was now maximized out over Lake Huron, while the back edge of the snow was moving through the western portions of the CWA. A light westerly flow across nrn Lake Michigan, combined with sufficient overlake instability, likely provided at least a little lake enhancement to the snow across far NW/nrn lower, while RUC soundings suggested lift maximized in the DGZ, especially over areas along and north of M-32 in nrn lower. This was noticed at the office, with decent sized dendrites coming down for a time. Behind the low pressure in WI and western Lake Superior, the pressure gradient was tightening up, and gusty NW winds were ushering in colder air. Further west, higher pressure was moving into the nrn/central Plains.

The light synoptic/possible lake enhanced snow, will continue departing off to the east, and will be gone by daybreak, with that tightening pressure gradient and cold advection via gusty NW winds, settling in this morning. This will lead to scattered nuisance light lake effect snow showers focused primarily between TVC/PLN, and scraping by the NE lower shoreline from Rogers City through Alpena. Inversion heights will only be around 4-4.5kft, with some semblance of that shallow moisture, shallowing out further through the afternoon. In addition, the upstream higher pressure and drier air nudges in later today, with the 1000-850mb flow turning more anticyclonic. Therefore, would expect any overlake convection to weaken/wane by late day/evening. This process continues through tonight, with winds backing around out of the WSW, while a weak shortwave arrives late tonight. The overlake instability is still there, while less than stellar synoptic moisture arrives. Fcst soundings are fairly unimpressive, but there's a decent enough chance for patchy light snow/redeveloping scattered light lake effect to impact eastern upper and far NW/nrn lower. Most all of nrn Michigan will see snow amounts under an inch, with only the most favored NW flow regimes seeing around an inch (higher terrain NW lower and Chippewa county in eastern upper).

High temperatures will mostly be in the 30F-35F range, with lows tonight mostly in the teens, lower 20s coastal areas.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Light lake effect Saturday, wet and a little milder Sunday .

Synopsis/Forecast: A weak wave slides across lake Huron early in the day before heights start to rebound across Michigan. At the surface high pressure be just starting to push off to our southeast, allowing southwest winds become more southerly through the day. Our next system starts in the southern Canadian Rockies Saturday, treking toward Hudson Bay overnight, then into Quebec on Sunday. This leaves us in a psuedo-warm sector late Saturday into Sunday, with a cold front finally swinging down through Michigan Sunday night into Monday.

Sufficient overlake instability and a 4 kft DGZ over lake michigan will keep lake effect going into portions of Leelanua and the ern UP. We loose low level moisture as winds back to the south through the afternoon. 850mb temperatures also start to warm up and inversion heights sink through the afternoon and evening, effectively reducing any snow to flurries during this timeframe and overnight.

Southwesterly winds increase overnight into Sunday morning as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of the incoming system. A 40-50 kt LLJ helps bring a surge of 'warm' moist air northward. PWATs climb to above a half inch (+1 St Dev above normal). 850mb temperature rise above freezing through midday with surface temperatures warming into the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday afternoon. Precipitation will be all rain for nrn lower, and likely even ern upper as the lowest 2 kft of the column stay above freezing. Total QPF from the rain looks light as overall dynamics and forcing for lift doesn't get too crazy. Rain slowly mixes with and then changes over to snow late Sunday night/early Monday morning as the cold front moves in. During the night an upper level wave dives southeast into the central Plains, spinning up a surface low near Kansas. This low quickly rides up along the existing cold front.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

High Impact Weather: Strong winter storm with strong winds and multiple precipitation types possible

An elongated area of low pressure moves toward southern Michigan through the morning. Discrepancies still abound with the intensity and timing, but the general consensus is intensification as the low moves into southeastern Ontario. P-type issues are likely through the day Monday, and are heavily dependent on the choice of model right now. The GFS is more bullish, both with the warm nose and the very cold air undercutting it. The farther south/weaker Canadian gives mainly light to moderate snow, with the Euro in between. Given performance of the long range Canadian in the past few storm systems, am leaning more toward a GFS/Euro blend. In fact the latest Canadian has came more in line with the others: stronger and more northwest. Arctic air pours into the Midwest and Great Lakes following this system. 850mb temps drop into the negative mid-20s, with single digits overnight lows looking more and more likely. Deep troughing rotates over Hudson Bay Tuesday and Wednesday, likely bringing multiple rounds of lake effect through midweek. High pressure moves in late in the week, bringing quieter conditions.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 612 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Low pressure has crossed nrn Michigan and the light synoptic snow has ended. CIGS remain MVFR/IFR, while gusty NW winds and cold advection take over during the next few hours. This will result in scattered light lake effect, mainly between TVC/PLN, and also scraping by APN along the Lake Huron coast. The snow showers will wane into the late afternoon/evening, and there is also not enough confidence attm in showing any reduced VSBYS right now, to do anything other than VCSH. Will have to watch radar to the see the strength and coverage. CIGS through the day will largely be MVFR, but will lift to VFR late today into this evening. MVFR CIGS and some additional light snow showers may return by daybreak Saturday at PLN.

MARINE. Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Advisory level winds are likely across all nearshore waters today and for many into this evening, behind low pressure and a cold front crossing the region early this morning. This will be a relatively quick shot of gusty winds, as an axis of higher pressure sweeps through tonight. The gradient remains somewhat tighter across Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay into Saturday, for possibly some advisory gusts every now and then, but it's not until late Saturday through Sunday, when the gradient really tightens up. This will be in response to low pressure crossing nrn Ontario, and a cold front draping back across Lake Superior by Sunday. Advisories look to be a given, and gales seem likely for many in strong SW flow and good mixing from overlake instability.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. LM . GALE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-342- 344. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341-345- 346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi45 min NNW 19 G 24 34°F 1017.3 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi55 min ENE 5.1 G 6 29°F 35°F1015.5 hPa
WSLM4 49 mi85 min NE 7 27°F 38°F1015.8 hPa (+1.6)27°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI11 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast30°F27°F89%1015.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi30 minNW 61.75 miLight Snow32°F28°F89%1015.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI22 mi30 minN 510.00 miOvercast28°F27°F100%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACB

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW3S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW4CalmW3CalmNW5W6N3NW3NW4NW5CalmN4CalmCalmNW7N4CalmNW5NW9
G14
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2 days agoSW3S3S4S4SW5SW4SW8S7SW7SW7SW4S4SW4SW5SW5SW4SW5SW4CalmW5CalmCalmW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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