Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ephraim, WI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:46PM Friday August 23, 2019 6:56 PM CDT (23:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:49PMMoonset 1:57PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Expires:201908240445;;097484 Fzus53 Kgrb 231954 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 254 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-541>543-240445- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 254 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Clear.
Saturday..E wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Saturday night..SE wind 5 to 10 kts veering S after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Clear.
Sunday..SE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly Sunny.
LMZ541


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ephraim, WI
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location: 45.16, -87.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 232318
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
618 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Saturday
issued at 229 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
quiet weather is anticipated in the short-term, with only cloud
trends, temperatures and nighttime fog potential to consider.

Canadian high pressure was ridged over northeast wi this
afternoon, with scattered diurmal cumulus covering much of the
forecast area. Temperatures were cool, ranging from the middle
60s to lower 70s.

The canadian high will drift slowly eastward through Saturday. At
the same time, an upper level ridge will build into the region.

The combination of these features, along with very dry air in
place, will lead to quiet conditions. The main concern with this
setup will be patchy fog over northern wi late tonight into early
Saturday. Otherwise, expect diurnal cumulus to dissipate early
this evening, then reform during the late morning and afternoon
on Saturday.

Cool temperatures will persist into Saturday. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 30s in the cold spots of north central wi to
the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. Highs on Saturday may be a degree
or two warmer than today, with most locations getting into the
upper 60s to middle 70s.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
issued at 229 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
models continue to show a strengthening upper trough that will dig
southeast into the great lakes early next week. Eventually, this
trough to expand and cover much of the northern tier of states as
a closed upper low develops over northwest ontario hudson bay. The
resultant broad, cyclonic flow aloft to keep an unsettled weather
pattern for northeast wi through mid-week. Canadian high pressure
is forecast to build into wi later Wednesday into Thursday before
the passage of a cold front on Friday brings rain chances back
into the forecast. Temperatures should be a bit below normal this
weekend, rise to around normal Monday-Wednesday, then fall below
normal again Thursday-Friday.

Northeast wi to remain on the western periphery of the broad area
of high pressure centered over southeast canada northeast conus
Saturday night. Another night of clear skies and light winds can
be expected with min temperatures in the middle to upper 40s
north, lower to middle 50s south. The high pressure finally begins
to lose its influence on our weather on Sunday as a prevailing
southeast wind begins to pull more moisture north into the region.

Still expect dry conditions through the day, but we may see more
cumulus clouds compared to Saturday. Temperatures to remain below
normal with most locations in the lower to middle 70s.

Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night ahead of the
strengthening upper trough moving into the northern plains. If
saturation can be achieved, there could already be a few showers
to reach central wi after midnight. Min temperatures to be in the
lower to middle 50s north, middle 50s to around 60 degrees south.

The upper trough is forecast to reach the upper ms valley on
Monday with a series of mid-level shortwaves moving within the
trough. Models are now showing a better signal that one such
shortwave will lift northeast into the region and help to set off
showers slight chance of thunderstorms by Monday afternoon.

Instability still looks weak, but there may be enough shear to
provide for a locally strong storm. Pw values of around 1.5" may
also provide for locally heavy rainfall. MAX temperatures for
Monday to be in the lower 70s north-central wi near lake mi,
middle to upper 70s elsewhere.

Showers isolated thunderstorms to continue into at least Monday
evening as the upper trough (and its associated cold front) drive
eastward into the western great lakes. As the stronger lift and
forcing push east overnight, anticipate the precipitation to
become more scattered in nature. Still cannot rule our a few
showers rumble of thunder on Tuesday as northeast wi to be under a
broad, cyclonic flow aloft. MAX temperatures for Tuesday to be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s north-central wi, lower to middle 70s
elsewhere.

Other than a few showers that could linger into the evening hours,
the vast majority of Tuesday night should be dry as daytime
heating wanes. Wednesday could be a replay of Tuesday's weather as
the region remains under the influence of the broad upper trough.

Once again, any precipitation would be spotty with many dry hours
in between. MAX temperatures to reach the middle to upper 60s
north-central, lower to middle 70s for everyone else.

There remains questions in the forecast for late next week as
the models have timing issues with regards to the passage of the
next cold front. The gem advertises a frontal passage as early as
Wednesday night, while the gfs ECMWF suggest a late Thursday
night Friday passage. Have leaned the forecast toward the latter
model solution, thus allowing high pressure passing to our south
to keep Wednesday night through most of Thursday night dry. Chance
of showers possible thunderstorms to then accompany the cold
front for late Thursday night into Friday. Gulf moisture may be
limited, thus any rainfall should not be heavy. MAX temperatures
for both Thursday and Friday to be slightly below normal with
readings from the middle to upper 60s north near lake mi, upper
60s to lower 70s south.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 618 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
diurnal cumulus clouds, with bases of 4-6k ft, should dissipate
quickly after sunset. Diurnal cumulus clouds are again expected to
develop during the morning and into the afternoon on Saturday.

Some patchy MVFR ifr fog is possible across northern wisconsin
later tonight into Saturday morning. OtherwiseVFR conditions are
expected at all of the TAF sites through the period.

Winds will be light from the northeast to east, so patches of
lake-enhanced low clouds cannot be ruled out near lake michigan
late tonight into early Saturday. Confidence is not high enough to
include at mtw or grb at this time.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kieckbusch
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 14 mi76 min E 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 1024.4 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 22 mi56 min NE 6 G 7 67°F 70°F1024.5 hPa (+0.0)
45014 40 mi56 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 70°F1024.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 42 mi76 min E 2.9 G 7 67°F 1024.4 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 43 mi36 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 70°F1024.9 hPa50°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI24 mi2 hrsENE 610.00 miOvercast67°F50°F55%1025.1 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI24 mi2 hrsENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F52°F61%1025.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmN5NE5NE7NE6NE6NE4NE5NE5NE4NE8N7N9N9N9N10N7NE9NE6E6E4
1 day agoNW6N9N11N9NE6NE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4E5NE7N9N8N6N6NE3CalmNE5E3
2 days agoS4S4SW3CalmCalmSW4W4W5W4NW4N9N5N7N6N7N7N74W4NW6NW11NW9NW7N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.