Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ephraim, WI

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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 090523 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1123 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 254 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

A round of wintry precipitation tonight through Monday, then a short-lived shot of arctic air for the middle of the upcoming work week.

Amplification and consolidation of the upper pattern will occur the next couple days as troughs deepen off the West Coast and over eastern North America while a sharp ridge develops between those features. The relatively short wavelength between the troughs will allow the Pacific jet carving out the West Coast trough to undercut the ridge by mid-week. As a result, the latter part of the period will be characterized by a seasonably strong band of modest amplitude westerlies across the CONUS and southern Canada, locked beneath a very blocky pattern at high latitudes.

Temperatures will trend sharply downward the next couple days, bottom out at considerably below normal levels mid-week, then quickly rebound to above normal by the start of next weekend. At least a couple precipitation events are anticipated (the most significant occurring tonight through Monday), but amounts will probably remain AOB normal.

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Monday Issued at 254 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the region this afternoon. Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 30s north to the lower 40s across northeast Wisconsin.

For tonight, many concerns with respect to freezing drizzle prospects and then the change over to all snow late tonight and Monday. Latest observations indicated freezing drizzle was occurring across portions of Upper Michigan. With the freezing drizzle already occurring, have moved up the start time of the Winter Weather Advisory for the far north to 6 pm. Models indicating 850mb warm advection and the right entrance region of a 300mb jet north of Wisconsin to aid lift resulting in freezing drizzle. It gets more complicated south of a Wausau to Sturgeon Bay line where low clouds were struggling to move into the area. Satellite indicated a sharp edge to the low clouds. Expect the low clouds to expand southward late this afternoon and evening behind a cold front along with the ending of deeper mixing from this afternoon. Went with a Winter Weather Advisory beginning at midnight from Marathon and Wood Counties east to Shawano, Waupaca and Wautoma Counties.

The precipitation type for the Fox Valley becomes more challenging as temperatures will be at or slightly above freezing. Numerical guidance has been too cool for minimum temperatures the last few days to complicate matters. Also, looked at the road temperature forecast along Interstate 41 which indicated road temperatures will remain above freezing. Current thinking is most of the precipitation will fall in the form of drizzle from Interstate 41 on eastward to the Lake Michigan. To the west of Interstate 41, a mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle is anticipated. Later shifts may need to add a Winter Weather Advisory for this area if temperatures are a degree or two cooler than expected. On Monday, the drizzle or freezing drizzle will transition to snow from northwest to southeast. The only exception to this may be across the Fox Valley east to the lake where mid level moisture returns ahead of a surface low passing to the south of the area. Precipitation may transition over a little quicker to rain or snow across the Fox Valley tomorrow morning depending on boundary layer temperatures. Bufkit soundings indicated snow or sleet at Green Bay while it showed rain at Manitowoc.

As for temperatures, stayed closed to the 3 hourly temperatures off the MET guidance for lows tonight, especially across the Fox Valley and lakeshore region where boundary layer temperatures are critical. On Monday, high temperatures will be during the morning with slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon.

LONG TERM. Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 254 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

The core of the coldest air will shift through the area Tuesday through Wednesday evening. The forecast apparent temperature would support a Wind Chill Advisory across central and north-central Wisconsin Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday night into Thursday may be even colder as the center of the anticyclone will be stretched across the area, but winds will probably be too light for an advisory at that time.

Precipitation chances will return at some point during the latter part of the week as isentropic lift develops along the western periphery of the retreating anticyclone. Yesterday, the best chance appeared to occur on Friday, though Thursday looks a little more favorable this afternoon. The chance was represented by a prolonged period of 15-35 percent PoPs on the standard forecast initialization grids, the result of blending the various solutions together. That seemed sufficient for now, as there will still be plenty of time to hone in on the timing with later forecasts.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Low cigs and drizzle have taken their time advecting south this evening, with many sites across central and east-central Wisconsin still with VFR cigs. Hi-res models indicate that most of the drizzle for east-central Wisconsin will actually come up from the south later tonight and into Monday morning as a low pressure system passes to the south. Any drizzle that does form could be in the form of freezing drizzle as temperatures have fallen below freezing, however if the drizzle can hold off long enough temperatures may warm enough for mainly drizzle. This is probably the most uncertain portion of the forecast regarding precipitation type early in the forecast. Otherwise liquid precipitation should change over to snow from north to south Monday morning as a cold front sweeps through the region. Behind the cold front conditions should improve back to VFR later Monday night, except across Vilas County where snow showers will linger into Tuesday morning.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for WIZ030- 031-035>037-045.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for WIZ005-010>013- 018>021-073-074.

SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . Eckberg LONG TERM . Skowronski AVIATION . Kurimski

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI	10 mi	34 min	N 13 G 16	35°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI	22 mi	46 min	NE 15 G 18	34°F	36°F		1008.3 hPa	33°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI	42 mi	84 min	NNE 4.1 G 9.9	33°F			1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI

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NW8 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI	24 mi	68 min	ENE 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	32°F	96%	1009.5 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI	24 mi	68 min	NE 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	34°F	30°F	85%	1009 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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