Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellison Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:14PM Saturday December 14, 2019 6:28 AM CST (12:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:41PMMoonset 10:35AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Expires:201912141715;;762655 Fzus53 Kgrb 140948 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 348 Am Cst Sat Dec 14 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-541-141715- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 348 Am Cst Sat Dec 14 2019
Today..NW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Patchy freezing drizzle. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind 15 to 20 kts with a few gusts near 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers in the evening.
Sunday..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly Sunny.
Sunday night..W wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy.
LMZ541


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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location: 45.21, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 141155 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 555 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Sunday Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Light mixed precipitation today, and lake-effect snow showers over far north central WI today and tonight, will be the main forecast concerns.

Patchy freezing drizzle was falling across parts of the forecast area early this morning. Calls to central WI a few hours ago indicated that freezing drizzle was light, and was only resulting in scattered slippery spots on roads. ASOS's in central WI measured a trace to a couple hundredths of ice accumulation, but no appreciable accumulation was noted here at NWS GRB. Given these reports, do not plan to issue any headlines, but will continue to mention locally hazardous travel via Special Weather Statements and the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Areas of fog were also ongoing over all but far northeast WI, with local vsbys below one mile at times.

Patchy freezing drizzle and flurries will continue early this morning, but precipitation should pick up a bit as a short-wave trof and associated cold front move through later this morning and afternoon. As colder air filters in, the threat of freezing drizzle will end from west to east during the afternoon. Developing cold northwest flow will lead to an increase in lake- effect snow showers over far north central WI this afternoon. Should see 1 to 2 inches of snow over Vilas County by the end of the day. Highs will be in upper teens and lower 20s far west to the 20s elsewhere.

Lake-effect snow showers will continue in north central WI this evening, then gradually taper off overnight. An additional inch or two is expected over northwest Vilas County. Scattered light snow showers or flurries will taper off across the rest of the region this evening. Clearing skies are anticipated away from the Lake Superior snowbelt overnight, as high pressure builds into the southwest part of the forecast area, and downsloping northwest winds continue. Lows will be in the single digits above and below zero west, and upper single digits and teens east.

High pressure will bring sunshine on Sunday, but temperatures will be quite cold, highs ranging from around 10 above far west to around 20 near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

LONG TERM. Sunday Night Through Friday Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Conditions in the extended forecast will generally be quiet with chances for lake effect snow showers over far north-central Wisconsin on Tuesday, below normal temperatures through midweek, and at/above normal temperatures to end the week.

Sunday night through Tuesday . With a surface high pressure system and upper-level zonal flow set up over the Upper Mississippi Valley, conditions are likely to be relatively quiet. However, models continue to have a low pressure system riding along the Ohio River Valley for Monday. It is possible southern Wisconsin could end up on the northern most fringe of the precipitation and see snow; although, there has been a southward trend with this system. Portions of east-central Wisconsin could see some of this snow before the system moves northeast towards West Virginia and Pennsylvania by Monday night. By Tuesday morning, a clipper system will be shifting over Lake Superior causing winds to switch to the northwest. Lake effect snow showers could develop over far north-central Wisconsin, however, this system appears to have weak forcing, so accumulations would likely be light.

Rest of the forecast . As the clipper system, in concert with the upper-level cut-off low, shifts to the east Tuesday night, the upper-level pattern evolves into a northwest flow over the Upper Mississippi Valley as a ridge builds over the western US. The northwest flow will sync up with a surface high pressure system Wednesday morning, ultimately funneling cold Canadian air into the forecast area. Wednesday morning's temperatures will be the coldest of the extended with values in the single digits above and below zero. This high pressure won't stick around long as WAA increases across the forecast area ahead of another clipper system riding along the northwest flow. This system could bring light snow showers to far northern Wisconsin, however, there is a decent amount of dry air to overcome from the high pressure system. Kept snow chances out of the forecast for Wednesday as confidence is too low. Beyond Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will shift over the Upper Mississippi Valley keeping conditions dry for Thursday and temperatures at/above normal. Once the ridge exits the region, the focus then turns to Friday. Model guidance suggests a relatively dry shortwave trough moving into the area. Since the models are not in agreement with this system, decided to keep Friday dry.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 546 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions should improve this morning as northwest winds gradually increase and drier air moves in. A short wave trof will impact the region later this morning and afternoon, and should generate light snow showers, flurries or freezing drizzle. Lake-effect snow showers will increase across north central WI this afternoon, and continue into tonight. IFR vsbys are possible with the lake-effect in Vilas County. Snow showers and flurries will taper off tonight, with clearing expected away from the Lake Superior snowbelt as high pressure arrives overnight.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Kieckbusch LONG TERM . Hykin AVIATION . Kieckbusch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 18 mi48 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 28°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi58 min W 4.1 G 6 26°F 35°F1006.1 hPa24°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi48 min NW 5.1 G 6 29°F 1005.8 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI32 mi32 minW 34.00 miFog/Mist25°F24°F96%1007.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4W5W3W3CalmW5W6W6W4W3W4W4S4CalmW5W4W3W3W3CalmW3W3W3
1 day agoNE6
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S7S6S4SW3CalmW4W4W3W3NW5NW6NW4NW5NW3W4W5
2 days ago----------4W13W10W8W8SW9W10W9W8W8W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.