Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellison Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:50PM Saturday January 23, 2021 1:00 AM CST (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:25PMMoonset 3:50AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 852 Pm Cst Fri Jan 22 2021
Rest of tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
Saturday..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy.
Saturday night..S wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers after midnight.
Sunday..S wind 10 to 20 kts veering sw early in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Snow showers and showers. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ541 Expires:202101231115;;338740 FZUS53 KGRB 230252 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 852 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-231115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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location: 45.21, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 230459 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1059 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Saturday Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

The main short-term concern will be the colder air tonight as clouds clear portions of the region and temperatures drop. Precipitation will likely arrive Saturday night, right at the beginning of long term forecast.

This afternoon and tonight . Surface high pressure will continue to push into the region this afternoon and evening, pushing the remaining clouds out of the eastern portions of the region. Sunny and clear skies will likely be in place for much of the region for a time, although some mid level clouds could bring back cloudier skies for portion of central and north-central Wisconsin by the early evening. Temperatures tonight will be fairly cold, with lows in the single digits and even below zero across most of the region, with the exception of Door County. There are some hints that low level clouds will linger across the far north, which would make central Wisconsin the coldest spot overnight. Stuck with lower end temperature guidance for the forecast, to account for the relatively clear skies.

Saturday . The morning will start off cold and mostly clear for the region, before clouds begin to return by the early afternoon. WAA aloft will likely see cloud cover slide over the region from the west through the afternoon and bring temperatures back into the 20s. The best WAA and shortwave associated with the upcoming snowfall will hold off until late Saturday evening. Please see the long- term discussion for additional details. Overall, Saturday will start cold and rise to near normal temperatures in the afternoon as sky cover and WAA aloft increase.

Saturday . A cold, but mostly clear, morning is expected for Saturday before the high pressure slides out of the region in the afternoon. Behind the high, increasing WAA will allow clouds to spread across the forecast area and bring highs back into the 20s. The best WAA is in association with the next system expected to bring accumulating snow to the forecast area. Chances for snow will begin to increase in central Wisconsin late Saturday afternoon, but the majority of the snow is expected Saturday night into Sunday. See the long- term discussion for more details about this system. Near normal high temperatures are expected for Saturday with readings in the lower 20s.

LONG TERM. Saturday Night Through Friday Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

The main focus in the long-term portion of the forecast will be on the snow chances Saturday night into Sunday. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory with the expectation of seeing 2 to 4 inches across central into east-central Wisconsin. Might be a bit early on issuance, but decided to issue with this update in anticipation of increased travel into northeast Wisconsin this weekend. Outside of that, most of the extended forecast is fairly quiet with near to above normal temperatures expected.

Saturday night and Sunday: High pressure will exit off to the east of the area Saturday evening, allowing south to southeasterly return flow to increase. At the same time, a couple of low pressure centers are expected to approach the area. One of those will be over western Ontario Saturday evening, while the other is expected to be over the central Plains. A cold front is expected to stretch between the two, across central/western MN. These features will shift eastward through 12Z, with the cold front reaching into western/central WI by 12Z Sunday. Aloft, the associated upper-level trough is expected to be staggered back to the west, across MN by 12Z Sunday. The area will also be in the left-exit region of an upper-level jet overnight into Sunday morning, which will increase broad scale forcing across the area. WAA ahead of the front will also lead to isentropic upglide by mid to late evening.

The light snow is expected to spread into central Wisconsin first then through the rest of the area by Sunday morning. Models continue the slowing trend as some low-level dry air lingers through 00-03Z Sunday. The snow will become more widespread as the front and upper- level features shift into eastern Wisconsin Sunday morning. Some lake enhancement is also likely along the Lake Michigan shoreline into Sunday afternoon as 1000-850mb winds remain out of the south to south-southeast. 850mb temperatures are expected to be around -10C with Lake surface temperatures around +5C. This should be sufficient for lake enhancement for the lakeshore counties. Will trend QPF up a bit in those areas. Otherwise, the snow will taper off from west to east across much of the rest of the area. Most locations will end up with 2-4 inches of snow, with the greatest totals expected central and along the shoreline, while the least totals will be across northern WI (near the UP border). Lows are expected to be in the teens for most of the area with highs warming into the mid 20s to low 30s.

Sunday night through Monday night: The northern surface low is expected to weaken as the Plains low develops across the mid Mississippi Valley. This low is expected to remain well south of the area as it treks into the Ohio River Valley by Monday afternoon/evening. At same time a surface ridge is expected to build into Wisconsin through this time period. The main impact this will have on NE WI weather is an increase in cloud cover from the south. Most of the precipitation is expected to be across northern Illinois and possibly into southern Wisconsin. Lows are expected to range from the single digits above zero to the mid teens (coldest central/north-central). High temperatures are expected to be in the 20s.

Rest of the extended: A surface ridge is expected to build across the area Wednesday and become reinforced Thursday into Friday. This will mean fairly quiet weather is expected to continue. An upper- level trough may briefly brush through the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, which will mainly bring continued cloud cover to the area. Increased ridging aloft, Thursday into Friday, will lead to near to slightly above normal temperatures.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1059 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

MVFR ceilings between 2000 and 3000 feet may move into northcentral Wisconsin north of a line from RRL to IMT overnight, and remain through 14z Saturday. Otherwise VFR conditions will continue overnight through Saturday evening. A period of IFR conditions and snow is expected late Saturday night through part of Sunday. The greatest amount of snow will be over central and east central Wisconsin. The snow will be fairly dry and not much blowing or drifting is expected.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to noon CST Sunday for WIZ038-039-048-049-074.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM CST Sunday for WIZ020-030-031-035>037-045.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 3 PM CST Sunday for WIZ022-040-050.

SHORT TERM . Uhlmann LONG TERM . Cooley AVIATION . RDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 6 mi20 min W 8.9 G 14 17°F 1025.1 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 18 mi30 min W 4.1 G 8 15°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi42 min W 5.1 G 7 13°F 35°F1024.4 hPa1°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi80 min NW 9.9 G 15 15°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI32 mi64 minN 010.00 miOvercast14°F5°F67%1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.