Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Martin Lake, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday August 9, 2020 6:37 AM CDT (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:27PMMoonset 11:03AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martin Lake, MN
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location: 45.33, -93.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 091105 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 605 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

UPDATE. For 12Z Aviation discussion below

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

The first concern in the short term is the wind-producing MCS over eastern South Dakota that is on our western doorstep. Damaging wind gusts are the greatest concern with this complex as it races east this morning, and also large hail given mid-level lapse rates of 8.5-9 C/km. Do expect a waning trend with eastward progression moving into a region of lower DCAPEs/MUCAPEs, as we're seeing with wind gusts more in the 45-50 mph range in southwestern Minnesota, but storms should be at least strong through 14Z.

We likely won't be out of the woods after this line moves through, however. Several of the Hi-res models, particularly the HRRR family, show redevelopment of strong storms over central/east central MN between 15Z and 18Z, expanding across west central Wisconsin during the early afternoon. This scenario seems very possible given the forcing the shortwave will supply in combination with plenty of instability and shear.

And yet a third round of convection will be possible this evening as thunderstorms develop along the front over the eastern Dakotas and race eastward across the area. Damaging wind and hail will again be the primary threats. Additionally, given the subsequent bouts of precipitation in a 24-48 hour period, we will have to monitor impacts of heavy rainfall occurring over the same area. Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, illustrating the threat for these storms to be efficient rainfall producers.

A few lingering showers will be possible in the south on Monday, but then we look to dry out briefly as weak high pressure settles in. Monday will bring a relief from the warmth and humidity, as dewpoints retreat into the 40s and 50s, and high temps top out in the 75-80 degree range.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

The long term period starts off with high pressure in control giving the CWA a dry, mostly sunny and pleasant Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. On Wednesday the high pressure moves off to the east and more humid air starts to return to the area. The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns as well and lasts through the period. There is little agreement amongst the deterministic models on the placement and timing of features, so trying to pinpoint where and when precipitation may occur is tough. The latest NBM has slight to chance PoPs in the grids from Wednesday through the end of the period which seems reasonable at this point. Temperatures will run near or slightly above average with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows mainly in the 60s.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites this morning, with attendant MVFR conditions and the potential for gusty winds. A few strong storms look to flare up over east central MN and west central WI during the late morning and afternoon hours. After that we await thunderstorms along the advancing cold front over the eastern Dakotas to spread into the area this evening. Those will have the potential to be severe as well.

KMSP . Thunderstorms look to be in the vicinity of the aiport at TAF issuance, although an overall waning trend is expected throughout the morning. Also expect high-end MVFR ceilings into early afternoon. Hi-res models are relatively consistent with bringing in another round of strong to severe storms this evening, so have upgraded the Prob30 to a Tempo.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon . VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kt. Tue . VFR. Wind SW at 10G15 kt. Wed . VFR. Wind SE at 10G15 kt.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . LS LONG TERM . CEO AVIATION . LS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi43 minSSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F68°F88%1014.2 hPa
Cambridge Municipal Airport, MN20 mi43 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F60°F69%1014.2 hPa
L O Simenstad Municipal Airport, WI20 mi43 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast68°F68°F99%1015.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN24 mi45 minSSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds70°F64°F84%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANE

Wind History from ANE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S7S7S9SW7S5S5SW7SW7SW7SE7N11
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W4CalmCalmS5CalmSE3S4S3SE3S6S4
1 day agoS6S9S9
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2 days agoSE4SE8SE8S10S9SE11SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.