Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Martin Lake, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:16PM Sunday September 19, 2021 9:22 AM CDT (14:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:13PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martin Lake, MN
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location: 45.33, -93.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 191121 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 621 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

There are two key messages in the short term. The first is warm and breezy conditions today as afternoon highs approach 90 degrees and southerly winds gust 30 to 40 mph. The second is the near certainty of rainfall for all locations as showers and thunderstorms move across the region Sunday night into Monday. A few storms could produce hail and gusty winds.

Sunday - Southerly flow overnight will only increase today as the boundary layer mixes and taps into the strong low level jet. The combination of mostly sunny skies and deep mixing will lead to a very warm day across the region, so continued the trend of pushing afternoon highs toward the upper end of the forecast guidance. Forecast soundings show 35 to 45 kt at the top of the channel, so have increased winds/gusts toward the higher end of the forecast guidance as well.

Sunday night through Monday Night - A few elevated rain showers could be ongoing across western Minnesota, but these will increase in coverage and should transition to thunderstorms so the better forcing for ascent arrives from the west. Forecast CAPE profiles are very skinny which should provide the limiting factor on severe weather potential. However, the deep layer shear is very strong so this could lead to a few strong/severe storms capable of producing gusty winds or hail. As a result the SPC outlook has a marginal risk of severe storms mainly west of I-35 through tonight, and a marginal risk of severe storms mainly east of I-35 for Monday. As mentioned earlier, most locations have nearly a 100 percent chance of rain, with total amounts generally a half in to an inch, with higher amounts possible in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The rain will end from west to east Monday night.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

A rather quiet long term period looks to be on tap for us, picking up at 12Z Tuesday with the last of the showers from the system moving through on Monday having ended a few hours earlier. Tuesday will see high pressure returning as the upper level trough pushes through, with a ridge building in behind it into the middle of the week. Surface high pressure remains over the region for Wednesday and finally gets pushed out as the upper level ridge begins to break down as another system forms underneath a trough in the NW CONUS. Deterministic models continue to show increasing southerly winds on Thursday coupled with slightly warmer temperatures as the system approaches from the west, however the upper level support breaks down enough such that precipitation chances remain mostly absent. Our best chance for precipitation last night was looking to be late Saturday into Sunday next week, however this has already shifted to the northeast over the northern Great Lakes, and I expect further shifts over the coming days. Suffice to say, we will enter the final week of September just as dry as most of the summer was.

Temperatures will be nothing too crazy over the coming week, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s, which is typical for this time of year. We are rapidly losing minutes of daylight as the Autumn Equinox occurs on Wednesday, and with no major systems bringing potential rainfall in the forecast, our prospects of seeing any more severe weather are also rapidly diminishing.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

The primary concern today will continue to be winds throughout the day, with some LLWS this morning. Gusts to 30-35kts are possible by the afternoon, especially for AXN/RWF. LLWS returns towards the end of the period as the low level jet strengthens ahead of showers arriving shortly before 12z tomorrow.

KMSP .

No additional concerns today, with LLWS and showers entering the end of the TAF period. MVFR CIGS are a possibility once showers arrive tomorrow, which right now is expected after 12z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Mon . MVFR/-SHRA with TSRA/IFR possible. Wind S 10G20 bcmg NW. Tue . MVFR/-SHRA early, VFR after. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. Wed . VFR. Wind N 5kts bcmg E/SE.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . JRB LONG TERM . TDH AVIATION . TDH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi37 minSSE 610.00 miA Few Clouds72°F64°F78%1012.9 hPa
L O Simenstad Municipal Airport, WI20 mi27 minS 12 G 2010.00 miFair72°F65°F78%1014.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN24 mi29 minS 1310.00 miFair75°F65°F71%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANE

Wind History from ANE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE8S11
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1 day agoW10NW12NW10NW10
G16
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G18
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NW10NW8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5
2 days agoS11
G19
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G27
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G30
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G28
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G33
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G33
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G26
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S15
G23
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G25
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W20
G36
N25
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N4NW8
G17
W9W9

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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