Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Netarts, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 11:29 AM PDT (18:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:21PMMoonset 1:17PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 803 Am Pdt Tue Aug 11 2020
Rest of today..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 9 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt early in the evening. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..SE wind 5 kt, backing to nw with gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw 2 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 6 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Thu night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Sat..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 803 Am Pdt Tue Aug 11 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak high pressure over the oregon waters continues through Wed. Thermally induced low pres strengthens on the south or coast Thu resulting in stronger northerly winds over the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Netarts, OR
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location: 45.43, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 111636 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 935 AM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Updated: Aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS. A broad upper level trough will swing across the Pacific Northwest over the next few days. This will bring a return to cooler temperatures along with an increase in late night and morning clouds to the coast and north part of the interior. Warmer weather returns towards the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the far western United States.

SHORT TERM. Today through Thursday . The transition to cooler weather is underway across SW Washington and NW Oregon. Onshore MSLP gradients have ramped up over the past 12-18 hours, with +4.7 mb KTTD-KDLS as of 2 AM this morning. GOES-16 fog product indicates that low clouds remain somewhat limited along the coast and over the coastal waters, but they are slowly increasing in coverage especially Cannon Beach northward. Despite the robust onshore pressure gradients, low clouds have yet to spread up the Columbia beyond Kelso. Dry air left behind by the last couple warm/dry days is taking some time to saturate, but we should see some clouds bank up against the Cascade foothills north of Sandy toward sunrise as the boundary layer cools to saturation. Any morning cloudiness should clear back to the coast and coastal valleys by midday, leaving mostly sunny skies for inland areas this afternoon. Afternoon temps will be seasonable with inland valley highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, while the coast generally remains stuck in the 60s due to persistent onshore flow and occasional cloud cover.

Meanwhile, a broad upper trough will be developing over the Pac NW, with latest GFS 500 mb heights dipping into to 570-573 dam range by midday Wednesday. The 00z GFS also shows a decent amount of shortwave energy moving through the Pac NW Wednesday. 00z HREF composite reflectivity plots hint at some light precip moving through the region with this shortwave, but further analysis suggests this would be virga as time-height cross sections keep most of this moisture above 700 mb. Cannot completely rule out a sprinkle or two Wednesday, but we kept the forecast dry as very few models/ ensembles show any QPF and MOS PoPs are generally below 10 percent.

Cloud cover and a cool air mass for the season should hold temps several degrees below seasonal normals inland Wednesday afternoon, with inland valley highs mostly in the 70s. With cooler air moving in aloft, marine inversions will likely deepen to the point where coastal stratus begins to break up, potentially allowing for more sunshine along the coast Thursday. With 850 mb temps in the +8 to +10 deg C range Thursday, lowland highs will likely range from the mid-upper 60s for cooler coastal locales to the mid-upper 70s for most inland valleys. Weagle

LONG TERM. No Changes Previous discussion follows. Thursday night through Monday . Models in good agreement in continuing to show a ridge developing over the region headed into the weekend, before shifting slowly east in the ensuing days. Model trends have been for a stronger ridge over the weekend than earlier runs, with 850 mb temps likely peaking above 22C, which should be good for 90s for the inland valleys over the weekend. Temperatures along the coast appear likely to be warm as well, but not quite so hot as onshore winds appear likely to develop each afternoon with the upper ridge inland. Sunday and Monday models tending to shift the upper flow more to the south-southwest as the pattern shifts east, and while timing is uncertain, there are hints in the models of a shortwave lifting through around Monday. For now will stick with National Blend and limit pops to a slight chance for showers in the north Sunday night and Monday, but the pattern may ultimately wind up being supportive of chances for convection over the Cascades. Monday may wind up being pretty warm as well, depending on how quickly the ridge breaks down.

AVIATION. Current satellite is showing stratus continuing to clear out over the lower Columbia River Gorge. MVFR ceilings in KAST will likely stick around until roughly 19Z before clearing into VFR criteria. Winds are expected to shift slightly onshore around 06Z which may cause a marine push inland. Most guidance is showing a 015 ceiling for a couple hours along the north coast during this time. Areas along the central coast are expected to keep clear skies through the day. However, stagnant overnight winds have allowed enough moisture to build in low lying areas. This has resulted in intermittent periods of low visibility for KONP. Winds are starting to pick up and mix with the dry air aloft. KONP should expect a mix of VFR to MVFR visibility throughout the day.

Inland sites are expected to stay VFR with clear skies through the next 24 hours. Breezy conditions in the late afternoon are expected as a surface low pressure to the south is starting to build.

KPDX and APPROACHES . VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours, breezy conditions in the late afternoon. -BPhillips

MARINE. High pressure will reside over the Oregon waters through Wed with a weaker thermally induced trough on the south Oregon coast. This will result in easing of winds compared to past several days. The low pressure trough strengthens on the south Oregon coast Thu into the weekend for increase in northerly winds over the waters. Will likely need to issue a Small Craft Advisory for the Central Oregon waters as early as Thu and expands the advisory north Fri. Beyond the forecast period looks like a flow reversal develops on Sun. Seas will be around 6 to 9 ft today will gradually subside to around 5 ft by Thu. /mh

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . None.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 9 mi59 min 57°F1017.4 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 55 mi63 min 58°F8 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 55 mi59 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 62°F 70°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR7 mi34 minNW 310.00 miFair64°F51°F64%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Tue -- 03:10 AM PDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM PDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:47 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:16 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:29 PM PDT     1.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM PDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:27 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.81.31.11.42.23.344.243.532.41.91.61.62.33.44.65.55.75.44.94.1

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon (2)
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Garibaldi
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:11 AM PDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM PDT     5.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:47 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 12:30 PM PDT     2.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:16 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:04 PM PDT     6.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.92.12.63.44.24.854.94.43.73.12.72.73.13.94.95.96.66.96.7653.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.