Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Netarts, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 4:32PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 2:10 AM PST (10:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 5:57AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 255 Pm Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
Tonight..SE wind to 5 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of light showers.
Tue..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 6 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 15 ft. Showers.
Thu night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 15 ft. Showers.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 15 ft.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 10 ft.
PZZ200 255 Pm Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres inland with low pres well offshore through Mon night. A series of fronts will reach the waters through at least mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Netarts, OR
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location: 45.43, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 100455 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 854 PM PST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Dry tonight, but wet pattern resumes Tue, as a series of fronts line up to push into the Pac NW this week. More rain arrives later Wed, with rather wet and potentially breezy Thu on tap. The wet unsettled weather continues into next weekend, though there are some hints of drying later next weekend. Snow levels stay at or above pass levels through at least midweek, but significant snow accumulations are likely above the passes.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Thursday . Satellite imagery shows a weak cold front near 130W approaching the Pacific Northwest, albeit weakening considerably while doing so. Split flow is stretching the front while it approaches the coast tonight, and very dry air aloft will make it take some time for the air mass to saturate enough to thicken mid to high level clouds appreciably. Easterly pressure gradients have developed through the Columbia Gorge, with -3.4 mb KTTD-KDLS as of 04z. The increasing offshore flow cleared the morning low clouds out of the West Columbia Gorge and much of the Portland metro area by early afternoon, but low clouds never cleared for most other interior lowland areas. These clouds are unlikely to budge overnight, possibly limiting the extent of fog. Ironically areas like the Tualatin Valley, which also cleared but have since decoupled, have the better chance for locally dense fog tonight into Tuesday morning.

Rain associated with the incoming front should spread to the coast by sunrise Tuesday morning, then inland after daybreak. With the front stretching apart and the air mass aloft so dry to start, the rain should arrive without much fanfare . mainly light rain or sprinkles Tuesday morning. However, latest guidance has shown shortwave energy presently crossing 140W may energize the frontal zone a bit Tuesday afternoon and evening, allowing for more significant rain. Even of this occurs, NBM 90th percentile QPF suggests rainfall amounts for the Willamette Valley would only be around 0.25", less than 0.50" along the Coast, and generally less than 1 inch in the higher terrain. Again, these are the higher-end QPF values produced by guidance, and many models suggest less than 0.10" in the Willamette Valley and maybe 0.25-0.50" for the higher terrain. With precip unlikely to move into the Cascades until Tuesday afternoon, it appears most high elevation valleys should have ample time to warm above freezing, including the Upper Hood River Valley. Snow levels are expected to be near or slightly above the Cascade passes, so significant travel impacts are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Expect showers to continue Tuesday night and through much of the day Wednesday as weak ridge passes over the region. But the next front will be fast approaching from the west on Wednesday. Used the SREF for rain arrival timing Wednesday, which puts it at the coast Wednesday afternoon, spreading inland Wednesday evening. Some models are a little bit slower than this, so will continue to refine timing.

Another shortwave moves into the Pacific NW Thursday, keeping rain chances high. This looks like it could be a rather juicy system, with widespread rainfall totals of 1" between Wednesday night and Thursday, higher in the terrain. However, given dry antecedent conditions, don't expect any river flooding. Snow levels stay in the 4500 to 5500 ft range through Thursday, so don't expect much snow accumulation on the Cascade passes. However, with many models producing 1 to 2 inches of QPF in the Cascades and W-SW 850 mb flow in the 35-45 kt range for good orographic enhancement, we will likely need at least a Winter Weather Advisory for the ski resort elevations above 5000 feet. With expected snow accumulations on the doorstep of warning criteria, will allow future shifts to determine whether an Advisory, Watch, or Warning is most appropriate. Weagle/Bowen

LONG TERM. Thursday night through Monday . Models and their ensembles are in good agreement a broad shortwave trough will be in place over the Gulf of Alaska with a broad downstream and low amplitude shortwave ridge over the Great Basin late in the week. This will place the Pacific Northwest in a progressive westerly flow pattern through the first half of the weekend. Expect several rounds of showers Thursday night, Friday, and again on Saturday as shortwave trough slides eastward across the area. Snow levels should gradually lower from around 4000-5000 ft Thursday night to 2000-3000 ft Saturday as colder air from the Gulf of Alaska trough spreads eastward across the area. This should result in at least some snow for the Cascade passes Friday and Saturday, but at this point, it looks questionable that 6-12" will fall in any given 12 hour period at pass level. There seems to be reasonable agreement that shortwave ridging will then develop over the eastern Pacific and Pacific Northwest Sunday into Monday. This should result in the area temporarily drying out Sunday and/or Monday, but there is a bit more uncertainty in how this time period will play out when examining ensemble data. /Neuman

AVIATION. Easterly winds from the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge will keep primarily VFR conditions for KPDX and KTTD, but can't rule out some MVFR vis developing towards early morning Tuesday. Stable conditions will continue overnight through most of the Willamette Valley. Expect the current MVFR conditions to persist, but a return of IFR/LIFR conditions is possible by Tuesday morning along with patchy fog. Expect MVFR conditions to develop along the coast over the next few hours, and the potential for IFR conditions to develop by early Tuesday morning.

Expect rain along the coast starting around 12Z Tuesday and the precipitation to reach the interior by 18Z Tuesday. The precipitation is expected to keep all locations in MVFR conditions through Tuesday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions should persist through this evening as increasing east winds will likely keep the area clear, particularly KPDX eastward. There is the possibility for some MVFR vis developing west of KPDX. However, the lower vis could impact the terminal, but am not confident in this happening if the east winds persist as expected. /42

MARINE. Offshore flow will continue through the day with southerly winds increasing through the evening. Winds will strengthen overnight to 15 to 20 kt with wind gusts near 25 kt in the outer waters with seas reaching 11 ft. The inner waters could reach small craft thresholds in some areas but the advisory will hold only for the outer waters at this time. Winds will weaken by tomorrow evening for a brief period before the next system however seas will stay around 10 ft.

A strong low pressure will form in the NE Pacific around 160 W tonight into Tuesday which will produce a significant westerly swell that could reach 15 to 17 ft according to the ECMWF. This system will not move across the area but will move north along the Canadian coastline. The strong surface front however will cross the waters Wednesday night through Thursday morning which has the potential for gale force gusts Wednesday afternoon according to the 18Z hi-res models. -BPhillips

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 9 mi59 min 48°F1021.6 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 55 mi41 min 49°F3 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 55 mi53 min E 1.9 G 2.9 1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR7 mi16 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F37°F100%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4S3SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Tue -- 12:25 AM PST     5.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:57 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:51 AM PST     1.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:33 AM PST     7.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:50 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:59 PM PST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.25.24.743.22.41.91.72.43.95.76.97.16.65.84.63.21.90.80.1-0.10.41.83.5

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon (2)
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Garibaldi
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:52 AM PST     2.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:57 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:55 AM PST     8.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:50 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:00 PM PST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.35.9543.233.44.45.87.28.28.68.16.95.13.21.40.2-0.20.21.42.94.55.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.