Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Idaville, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:33PM Friday November 27, 2020 11:49 PM PST (07:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:33PMMoonset 4:40AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 221 Pm Pst Fri Nov 27 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Tonight..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, shifting to W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Wind waves S 3 to 4 ft at 4 seconds becoming W 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, veering to ne in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the ne at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Combined seas 15 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds. Chance of rain.
Mon..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. W swell 17 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 15 ft.
Tue..NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 11 ft, becoming nw 8 ft.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 6 ft, building to 11 ft.
PZZ200 221 Pm Pst Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak frontal system will push across the region Friday night. High pressure returns Saturday. A stronger frontal system is expected to move through the waters late Sunday night and Monday morning. High pressure and offshore flow develops late Monday and continues through at least Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Idaville, OR
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location: 45.49, -123.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 280429 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 828 PM PST Fri Nov 27 2020

Updated aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature over the upcoming week, but a couple of fronts will bring a good chance for light valley rain and Cascade snow Friday night into Saturday morning and then again Sunday night through Monday.

SHORT TERM. This evening through Sunday night . Satellite observations earlier this afternoon showed an area of low stratus over the central and southern Willamette Valley, for elevations below 500 feet. Mostly clear skies were occurring elsewhere. Areas with low clouds will most likely remain mostly cloudy into tonight, with low clouds expanding this evening as high clouds move in ahead of an incoming weak front. Areas of fog will most likely redevelop this evening into tonight, before the aforementioned front moves inland and attempts mixing fog out.

Models continue to suggest the baroclinic zone tied to this front will essentially stall out and fall apart across the central and southern Willamette Valley Saturday morning. As a result, expected rain amounts are unimpressive with this system. The highest amounts should occur over the north OR/south WA coast, Willapa Hills, and north Coast Range where forcing will be the strongest. These areas could see around a quarter inch of rain. Elsewhere, expect around a tenth of an inch or less. The Eugene area and the Lane County Cascades will most likely only receive a trace of precipitation, if any at all. Model soundings over the northern Willamette Valley and the south WA/north OR Cascade Foothills suggest low-level moisture may be deep enough for some light drizzle to linger through most of Saturday afternoon, especially given the slightly negative 1000-850mb omega values.

Models and their ensembles remain in agreement on a weak shortwave ridge traversing the Pacific Northwest Saturday night into Sunday. This should result in any lingering precipitation Saturday afternoon decreasing Saturday evening into Saturday night. In areas that sufficiently clear, expect another round of morning fog and low clouds Sunday morning. This could hold temperatures down a bit from the current forecast highs Sunday afternoon, but confidence in exactly where and by how much remains low.

Conditions begin to change Sunday night as a compact shortwave trough and attendant cold front begins pushing into the Pacific Northwest, bringing light to moderate rain to the coast sometime late Sunday night into Monday morning. There are still some timing differences between the deterministic GFS/NAM/EURO/Canadian 12Z model runs. The GFS/NAM/Canadian bring precipitation into the region roughly 6 hours sooner than the EURO. If the EURO solution verifies, Sunday night would remain dry and rain would not arrive at the coast until Monday morning. The most likely outcome appears to be what the GFS/NAM/Canadian suggest, with rain arriving at the coast Sunday night. -TK/Neuman

LONG TERM. Monday through Thursday night . Models and their ensembles continue to suggest a fast-moving but potent shortwave trough will slide across the area late Sunday night into Monday. Models continue to show some timing differences with this system, which is discussed above in the short term discussion. In addition to these timing differences, there continues to be a quite a bit of spread in ensemble guidance for QPF totals. The only noticeable change with the ensemble spread for QPF is that there is now noticeable packing of ensemble members near higher QPF solutions. This makes sense, given the stronger jet dynamics and QG forcing that appears to accompany this system. There still appears to be a chance the Cascades could see low end advisory level snow accumulations of 4-8" above 3000-4000 feet late Sunday night into Monday. The current forecast keeps snow amounts just below advisory level criteria, but not by much.

Otherwise, there continue to be strong agreement in the models and their ensembles in a stronger and more pronounced shortwave ridge building back over the Pacific Northwest Monday night into Tuesday. This should lead to dry conditions across the area with temperatures near seasonal normals. As the ridge axis slides east of the region and cold air lingers east of the Cascades Tuesday night into Wednesday, expect east winds to begin to increase through the Columbia Gorge. Otherwise, would expect areas of fog and low cloud development each night/morning in the Willamette and lower Columbia River valleys away from the Gorge mouth with their coverage likely being highly dependent on the strength of the developing easterly flow. Would not be surprised to see valley high temperatures end up a bit cooler than the current NBM guidance in areas unaffected by the east winds towards the middle of next week. -TK/Neuman

AVIATION. Low stratus and fog continues to redevelop over the interior Friday evening with cigs around 200 to 500 feet and cloud tops up to 2000 feet. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to persist into early Sat morning. An approaching front overnight will add some uncertainty to the forecast as it could bring enough mixing to break up fog and low stratus around 09-14Z Saturday. This front though will be weakening rapidly as it moves inland and may stall near or north of KSLE allowing areas south to remain in dense fog and LIFR cigs.

Along the coast VFR conditions will begin to decline to MVFR as the front arrives at KAST around 08Z and KONP around 12Z Saturday. Along the northern coastal locations conditions should improve by 20Z while central coastal locations may remain in low MVFR to IFR stratus. Expect the front to dissipate by 00Z Sunday, if not a few hours sooner. Areas of low stratus will likely persist throughout the interior into Sat evening, but a few locations may see breaks in the clouds late Sat afternoon.

For detailed regional Pac NW weather information, go online to: http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Fog has redeveloped with LIFR stratus around 300 feet. Expect these conditions and light southerly winds to persist Fri night until a weak front approaches early Sat morning. This front will bring rain and could mix the lower atmosphere enough to lift cigs into low MVFR category. After the front passes through expect slight improvement by late Sat afternoon. /DDH

MARINE. A weak frontal system will increase winds across the waters through tonight. The strongest winds will be confined to the northern waters with gusts reaching up to 25 kt. Wave heights in the 10 to 13 ft range continue tonight, then slipping below 10 ft by Saturday afternoon.

A stronger front is expected to move onshore Sunday night and Monday. Solid small craft advisory wind speeds appear highly likely, with the potential for 30-35 kt gusts early Monday morning. NAEFS & GEFS probabilistic wind speeds greater than 30 kt is only 40-50 percent chance at this time. Seas likely to climb into the mid teens Monday then gradually subside below 10 ft Tuesday. High pressure to return by Tuesday with a summer like pattern with a trough of low pressure near the coastline Wednesday.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for Columbia River Bar.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 5 mi50 min 51°F1024.3 hPa (+1.1)
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 50 mi50 min ENE 4.1 G 8.9 44°F 48°F1023.2 hPa (+1.3)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 52 mi54 min 50°F9 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR6 mi55 minSE 310.00 miOvercast39°F37°F93%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

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Last 24hrCalmE4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmSE3S3SE4SE4SE4Calm
1 day agoS3CalmSE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E3
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Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Sat -- 12:25 AM PST     5.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:43 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:00 AM PST     1.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:41 AM PST     6.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:34 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:01 PM PST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.25.24.743.22.41.81.62.13.55.26.56.86.45.74.63.32.110.30.10.61.93.5

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Barview
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Sat -- 04:41 AM PST     2.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:43 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:31 AM PST     7.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:34 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:42 PM PST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:57 PM PST     6.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.95.24.23.32.72.63.14.35.66.97.77.87.15.84.22.51.20.30.20.823.54.95.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.