Friday, November15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Troutdale, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:41PM Friday November 15, 2019 2:46 PM PST (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:15PMMoonset 10:16AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 251 Am Pst Fri Nov 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...7 to 9 ft through Friday night. - first ebb...around 6 am Friday. Seas near 11 ft. - second ebb...a strong ebb around 615 pm Friday. Seas near 12 ft with breaker possible. - third ebb...around 645 am Saturday. Seas near 11 ft.
PZZ200 251 Am Pst Fri Nov 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A series of low pressure systems will move into the north pacific and gulf of alaska through the weekend. Weakening fronts associated with these lows will affect the waters today and again later Sat and Sun. More front to affect the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Troutdale, OR
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location: 45.5, -122.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 151843 aab
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
1043 am pst Fri nov 15 2019
updated aviation discussion plus the earlier short-term section.

Synopsis Cold front has moved east of the cascades leaving
showers in it's wake. Showers will gradually taper off this
afternoon and evening. Clouds break up later tonight which will
allow for pockets of fog to develop by early Saturday morning. The
fog may be slow to lift into a low stratus deck for a few areas,
namely the south willamette valley. A weaker front on Sunday will
mainly affect northern portions of the forecast area with another
chance for rain. More widespread rain is possible late Monday and or
Tuesday as a low pressure system moves across the pacific northwest.

Short term Today through Sunday... Morning update was sent earlier
mainly to reflect QPF details for the rest of the post-frontal
period through this evening. Also changed zone wording to indicate
shower coverage vs. Probability. Snow levels remain 7000-8000 feet
and will see a slight bump up this morning before the deeper cooler
air arrives this afternoon. Still, do not expect them to get much
below 5500 feet for the south washington north oregon cascades and
6500 feet for the central oregon cascades by the time showers taper
off late this evening.

For the afternoon package, will be taking a closer look at fog
coverage for tonight as temperatures will not stray too far from
dew points this afternoon. This will make it fairly easy to saturate
the surface as clouds break up at times overnight. Would not be
surprised if there is some local dense fog by daybreak Saturday.

Jbonk
previous discussion from 248 am follows: as of 2 am pst this
morning, an approaching cold front had finally spread steady rain
onshore, with some areas of light rain beginning to develop over the
willamette valley. This front has been in no hurry to move onshore,
partially due to a split flow pattern that has developed along the
west coast. That said, this system will begin to accelerate eastward
over the coming hours as it begins to feel the influence of an 80-
100 kt streak within the north pacific jet stream. The left-front
quadrant of this jet streak will provide modest forcing to act on
total precipitable water values of around 1 inch, likely wringing
out 0.25 to 0.50" of rain along the coast and across much of sw
washington, and locally up to 1 inch in the higher terrain. The
willamette valley will likely receive less, especially west of
interstate 5 where some downsloping westerly flow will limit post-
frontal showers. As has been the case with our recent frontal
systems, snow levels should remain well above the cascade passes.

High pressure will build both at the surface and aloft tonight and
Saturday, although upper level ridging will be somewhat flat. This
will keep the jet stream close enough to the pac NW to bring another
chance of rain to our northern zones Sunday as the next shortwave
clips by to our north. Again, snow levels look to remain well above
the cascade passes Sunday.

Renewed ground moisture from today's rain will probably lead to areas
of valley fog the next couple nights and mornings, some of which may
be dense if higher clouds thin enough. Fog, inversions, and a return
to unseasonably warm 850 mb temps will make temperature forecasting
tricky for the inland valleys Saturday and potentially Sunday, but
overall temps should be within a few degrees of normal if not
slightly on the warm side of normal with highs generally in the 50s
for the lowlands. Weagle

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... No changes.

Previous discussion follows... Medium range models are in fairly good
agreement with the southern remnants of the upper ridge
reestablishing across the region Sunday night and most of Monday. A
well established upper low starts the period near 45n, 150w then
slides eastward to near 130w by Monday afternoon. The GFS is the
coldest and strongest of the models and brings rain to the north
coastal areas by mid-day Monday while other models are slightly
slower and warmer. They all agree the bulk of the rain shield will
cross Monday evening through early Tuesday morning with perhaps up
to 1 2" pf QPF possible for favored portions of the coast range and
cascades. By this time, however, even the colder GFS lifts snow
levels to well above the passes.

The upper low moves inland Tuesday, but a trailing vort MAX drops
south along the western flank of the low and forms a new low as it
continues diving south along the coastline and into california. This
will keel some chance of rain continuing through most of the day
Tuesday and Tuesday evening. The differing details of the models
will ultimately determine just how much rain fall and how long it
will fall, but amounts do not seem to be all that impressive once
the initial low passes by Monday night.

The broad model agreement continue well into the long term period as
they all show a fairly high amplitude ridge building offshore by
early Wednesday. This will serve to keep the region dry through at
least Thursday. Jbonk

Aviation 18z TAF package: cold front has moved east of the
cascades as of 17z. Ifr CIGS have established across much of the
area with interspersed MVFR and isolated lifr CIGS vsbys. Do expect
cigs to gradually lift through the day with periods ofVFR across
the board possible after 16 00z. Aside from the patchy fog, vsbys
have improved with the departing front and should not be a factor
the rest of the day. Trailing showers will taper off through 16 09z
but none are looking particularly strong either. Periods of clearing
skies overnight may provide enough clearing to produce ifr CIGS with
local lifr vlifr conditions in fog after 16 12z. Best candidates for
the fog are khio and keug with limited improvement expected by
16 18z. Other terminals may see sub-2000 foot cigs, but confidence
is low.

Kpdx and approaches... High end ifr deck has become well established
this morning. Gut feeling is it will improve by 20z, but only have
moderate confidence. CIGS will lift as south surface winds develop
in a few hours and should become MVFR or better until around 16 06z.

When the MVFR deck does develop, expect it to last through roughly
16 17z. Jbonk

Marine A front will move ashore this morning with winds easing
below small craft advisory. Models show a bit of a coastal jet so
will probably see gust 30-35 kt briefly. Seas will be in the 11
to 13 feet for the outer waters, and 10 to 12 feet for the inner
waters through tonight then drop below 10 ft for the inner
waters sat. Another front will arrive Saturday,and could bring
small craft advisory winds back into our waters through the
weekend. 26 42

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 4 pm pst Saturday for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 am pst this morning for columbia
river bar.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm pst this
evening for columbia river bar.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 51 mi52 min 51°F1021.9 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 81 mi52 min 52°F1022.7 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 88 mi52 min WSW 2.9 G 7 55°F 52°F1021.5 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR3 mi53 minN 010.00 miOvercast56°F51°F84%1022.1 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR13 mi53 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast58°F52°F81%1022.3 hPa
Pearson Airfield, WA17 mi53 minW 410.00 miOvercast57°F51°F81%1022.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTD

Wind History from TTD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE22E15
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E14E13E11E11E9E8E7NE5NE3CalmCalm
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmW3E12
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Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Fri -- 04:32 AM PST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:11 AM PST     1.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:17 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:50 PM PST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:24 PM PST     0.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM PST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:15 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:52 PM PST     2.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.30.1-0.1-0.10.20.81.31.51.41.20.90.90.90.90.80.811.51.921.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:29 AM PST     5.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:52 AM PST     1.90 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:22 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:20 PM PST     6.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:53 PM PST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.334.65.45.554.33.42.62.11.92.64.15.86.86.86.35.44.22.81.60.5-0.1-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.