Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Meares, OR

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:13PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 10:02 PM PDT (05:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:52PMMoonset 10:19AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 253 Pm Pdt Tue Aug 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm pdt this evening through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 10 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Wed night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Fri night..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 5 ft.
Sun..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 253 Pm Pdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak ridge of high pressure over the waters today will give way to an approaching frontal system later tonight into Wed. The approaching frontal system will bring small craft advisory conditions to all of our waters. This front will likely move onshore by late Wed afternoon, with some W to nw swell lingering into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Meares, OR
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location: 45.53, -123.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 210422
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national service portland or
922 pm pdt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis A fall like storm system will bring widespread, and
locally heavy, Wednesday. Westerly flow and mild conditions return
heading into the weekend. A weak system brushes by on Saturday with
light rains possible across the north. Offshore high pressure begins
building early next week bringing a gradual warming trend.

Short term Tonight through Friday... Mature low pressure center
located near 45n 145w is at the heart of a slowly deepening offshore
trough. The trough has tapped into a notably moist tropically
sourced moisture plume with pw values as high as 2.50". That
moisture is getting entrained into the frontal structure with the
cold front pegged to cross the forecast area during daylight hours
Wednesday. Fortunately, the highest pw will not make it to the
frontal zone by tomorrow morning, however, there will still be 1.80"-
2.00" moisture plumes phasing into the front by late tonight and
early Wednesday.

The 12z hi-resolution convective allowing models (cams) have a rough
consensus that the precip evolution will largely be focused on a 2-3
hour window where precip rates will be enhanced by some embedded
convection. However, the global and mesoscale models are not hinting
at much instability associated with the front. Suspect there is just
enough conditional instability to warrant the pinpoint pockets of
45+ dbz modeled composite reflectivity. Model soundings do indicate
a few hour period near the frontal passage where the odd thunder
clap may occur. Did add in a slight chance mention in a narrow
ribbon across the area from west to east as the front passes by
during the late morning through early evening.

The pinpointed QPF maxes mean a wider range of potential QPF values
brings considerable uncertainty to which locations will see the
higher end of the potential rain closer to three-quarters of an inch
and to those which will see the lower end around several hundredths
to a quarter-inch. If nothing else, the cams agree that everywhere
in the CWA will likely see measurable rain. Unfortunately, the
central cascades and lane county foothills are a little less
certain, but still have an above average shot at picking up at least
some measurable rain, albeit more likely limited in nature.

Showers will taper off from late Wednesday evening with the last
vestiges hanging on longest over the cascades Thursday morning.

Westerly flow then takes over heading in to the weekend with
temperatures starting to warm about 5-8 degrees after tomorrow
roughly 15 degree drop. Jbonk

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... A shortwave will slide
north of the region and appears to have enough moisture in the flow
to bring some light rains across the far north. Amounts may struggle
to reach a tenth, if anything. Did increase pops some but have
leaned on an overall model blend for their output.

Longwave ridging tries to build over the west coast Sunday but will
have an easier time Monday and Tuesday as the upper trough drifts
away to the east. Temperatures will gradually warm toward the mid
and upper 80s as an initial projection but there is still some
uncertainly as the driving thermal trough may remain closer to the
cascades which would lend toward the slight cooling effects from
onshore flow during the afternoons. Jbonk

Aviation Vfr conditions continue this evening under mostly
clear skies inland as scattered high clouds continue to pass across
the area. Meanwhile low and mid clouds will continue to increase
along the coastal areas late this evening as the front approaches.

MVFR marine stratus will return late this evening followed by
lowering CIGS with the front later tonight as the front pushes
onshore by daybreak Wednesday. Expect rain and MVFR CIGS to spread
onshore late morning through early Wednesday afternoon with
mountains remaining obscured in rain clouds through the day.

Kpdx and approaches... PredominatelyVFR tonight, but mid clouds
increase early Wednesday by 15z ahead of the approaching front.

LowVFR CIGS expected to lower by 18z Wednesday with steady rain and
MVFR conditions expected into the afternoon. Cullen

Marine Seas remain in the 4 to 6 ft range, mainly from a nw
swell. That will change today as an unseasonable front
approaches the waters through tonight, then moves through the
waters Wednesday. Small craft winds are being seen at bouy 46089.

Expect these winds to progress further into the outer waters
through the evening, then progress to the inner waters by
Wednesday afternoon. The strongest winds are still expected from
tonight through Wednesday with gusts of 30 kt in our outer
waters with the potential for some isolated gusts higher than 30
kt.

Seas will generally start to build towards 6 to 8 feet with the
potential for some steep square seas too. Wind wave and swell
associated with this system could push seas towards 10 feet
Wednesday and possibly Thursday. The area that would have the
best chance of having 10 foot seas is our northern waters due to
larger swells and potentially stronger wind. 42

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Wednesday for waters from
cape shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Wednesday for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi62 min 60°F1016.8 hPa (+0.6)
46096 46 mi142 min S 14 G 16 59°F 61°F1014.9 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi62 min S 2.9 G 5.1 65°F 68°F1015.4 hPa (+0.5)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi32 min 63°F5 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR10 mi2.5 hrsSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F55°F64%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------Calm--SE3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmS3NW6S10SW9SW8
G14
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1 day ago------CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW8NW11NW11NW12NW15
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2 days agoW3W3S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6NW6NW8W8NW11
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G20
W8

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon (2)
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Garibaldi
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Wed -- 05:00 AM PDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:01 AM PDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:21 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:27 PM PDT     6.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:16 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.93.94.95.765.753.92.92.11.82.12.94.15.36.46.96.96.35.342.92.1

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Wed -- 01:08 AM PDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:38 AM PDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:21 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:00 PM PDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:05 PM PDT     5.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.11.52.63.94.854.74.13.32.51.71.211.52.64.15.35.85.75.14.43.42.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.