Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Meares, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:31PM Friday December 6, 2019 7:43 AM PST (15:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 1:41AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 246 Am Pst Fri Dec 6 2019
Today..E wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves se 3 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 3 ft at 8 seconds, increasing to 7 ft at 10 seconds. SEcondary swell W 5 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 7 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the morning. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 7 ft at 10 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW wind 5 kt, veering to nw after midnight. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw after midnight. SW swell 6 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of showers and patchy fog.
Sun..NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun night..SW wind to 5 kt, backing to se 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the se at 4 seconds after midnight. NW swell 5 ft at 14 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..SE wind 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 6 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 9 ft.
PZZ200 246 Am Pst Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A strong low pressure system will move east near 40n towards the coastal waters Fri. The low will continue east but weaken Fri night through Sat, reaching the north california coast Sat night. High pressure returns to the waters Sun through Mon night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Meares, OR
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location: 45.53, -123.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 061022 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 219 AM PST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. An upper level low well off the northern California coast early this morning will move east and weaken through Saturday morning. This will bring periods of light rain to the area. The unsettled conditions continue through Saturday night. High pressure returns to the area Sunday and persists into early next week for another potential round of air quality issues.

SHORT TERM. Friday through Sunday . At 10Z water vapor satellite imagery revealed a weak 500 mb ridge axis extending from the Great Basin to the north Washington coast. Meanwhile, a large upper level low was noted near 39N 138W and will be the primary weather feature through the short term.

Offshore flow continues through the Gorge early this morning. At 09Z the KTTD-KDLS gradient was -6 mb, slightly down from the -6.5 mb around 06Z. This has produced gusts of 60-70 mph at the usual windy spots at the west end of the Gorge. Models show the gradient peaking late tonight through Fri morning, likely ending up closer to -7 mb vs. the -5 to -5.5 the NAM suggests. Fog is less extensive early this morning, but areas of dense fog have developed in the south Willamette Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding the large upper low off the north California coast. A weakening occluded front is expected to reach the coastline around 18Z and then ease inland in the afternoon. However, with the frontal boundary becoming parallel to the mid and upper flow, its eastward progression will be slowed. Precipitation may not reach the Cascades until mid to late afternoon. South 850 mb and 700 mb flow this afternoon will not be conducive to orographic enhancement for the Cascades and Oregon Coast Range. The 18Z ECMWF 12-hr QPF ensembles valid 00Z Sat suggest about a tenth of an inch for the coast and Coast Range and a few hundredths at best elsewhere.

The upper low weakens as it moves east Friday night through Saturday morning. Embedded mini-shortwave troughs rotating around the parent low pressure will likely enhance rainfall across the area at times Friday night into Saturday. However, forecasting areas of enhanced QPF Friday night through Saturday will be tricky. The 850-700mb mean flow becomes more southwest during this period for some orographic enhancement for the mountains. Snow levels Friday night through Saturday will remain above the passes.

The primary surface low meanders into northwest California Saturday afternoon. The GFS has come more in line with the NAM and ECMWF with this feature. Thus, the best dynamics and instability will be south of the area. The remnant upper trough moves through the region Saturday night. Have left some residual low-end POPS into Sunday, mainly over the Oregon Cascades. A sharp amplitude ridge develops along 130W Sunday. This feature eventually shifts over the area at the start of the extended period. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Sunday night through Friday . The operational model runs and ensembles are in good agreement early in the extended period. The upper ridge axis shifts to the coastline by Monday afternoon. The 18Z ECMWF ensemble mean 500mb height anomaly valid 12Z Mon shows 125-200 meter height anomalies values just off the coast. As such, will likely have to contend with another episode of reduced air quality beginning Monday. Another weakening frontal system is expected to move inside 130W 12Z Tue. This will force the upper ridge east of the area. A vast majority of the 18Z ECMWF ensemble members show this frontal band just offshore 18Z Tue. This front falls apart Tue afternoon and evening as it moves inland.

Much more model variability exists in the Wed-Fri time frame. The NCEP Global Ensemble Mean Relative Measure of Predictability (RMOP) depicts this uncertaintly rather well, with a very low predictaility score valid 00Z Thu. The ECMWF ensembles suggest a more zonal pattern during this time period. The GEFS does hint at a weak atmospheric river impacting the Oregon/Washington coast towards the end of next week, but QPF amounts are still rather meager with its various scenarios. Meanwhile, the EPS suggests a much wetter multi- day stretch is in store for the region towards the end of next week. Given the considerable differences among the various modeling systems, have trended the forecast towards a blend of the various scenarios for now. Weishaar

AVIATION. Fog in the southern willamette Valley had dropped ceilings and visibilites to LIFR conditions. These conditions appear likely to persist through much of the morning, before improving to VFR conditions between 19Z and 21Z. In the remaining inland valley locations, there is at least a chance for seeing an expansion of fog and low clouds early this morning through 14Z, although thickening high clouds make it an iffy proposition for the northern Willamette and lower Columbia valleys. KHIO and KSLE are the most likely to see IFR conditions to develop this morning, while KTTD and KPDX are unlikely to see such conditions develop due to dry easterly winds. The coast also is likely to remain mostly VFR due to a modest easterly flow. Rain is likely to move in from the southwest later this morning and afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to be the most likely scenario after 20Z today and tonight, although there is a chance for MVFR conditions mainly along the coast after 22Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Ceiling are expected to drop down to the lower end of VFR between this afternoon between 21Z and 01Z. There is a chance for seeing temporary MVFR conditions after 01Z with occasional rain.

MARINE. Southeast winds and seas will pick up today, most notably over the outer waters beyond 10 nm as a strong low pressure system moves east along 40N, to the west of 130W. Peak wind gusts over the outer waters can be expected to reach 20 to 30 kt today. As the low continues east towards the north California coast tonight and Saturday the low will weaken, eventually moving inland Saturday evening. This will allow winds to decrease again, likely dropping below 20 kt after midnight tonight. Windwaves and fresh swell build steep seas today as the winds increase. Expect seas to top out over the outer waters from 10 to 14 feet this afternoon before slowly subsiding again tonight and Saturday. Over the inner waters the same trends in winds and waves can be expected today through Saturday but but peak wind gusts are likely to be limited to about 20 kt, and seas to top out around 9 to 10 ft.

High pressure brings quieter wind and sea conditions Saturday through Monday. The next chances for small craft level winds and building seas comes with another front Tuesday.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley- Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County- South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi55 min 47°F1011 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi61 min W 1.9 G 6 47°F 45°F1011.2 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi43 min 50°F4 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR10 mi68 minSE 410.00 miFair41°F41°F100%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3S4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon (2)
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Garibaldi
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Fri -- 01:40 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:00 AM PST     1.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM PST     7.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:24 PM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:06 PM PST     5.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.222.234.15.46.57.27.36.964.83.72.72.32.32.93.74.65.35.65.44.8

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Fri -- 01:40 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:59 AM PST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:23 AM PST     6.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:23 PM PST     1.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:44 PM PST     4.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.41.81.31.11.52.645.36.165.64.943.12.21.61.31.52.33.54.44.74.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.