Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 4:03 AM   Moonset 6:11 PM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 242 Am Pdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Active weather persists through Monday with another frontal disturbance moving across the waters bringing increased winds and steep seas at times. Fortunately, drier/calmer more summer- like weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday accompanied by northerly winds.

FXUS66 KPQR 061058 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 357 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cool onshore flow will maintain showers across SW Washington and NW Oregon through Tuesday, with unseasonably low snow levels in the Cascades. Isolated thunderstorms or heavy showers will have the potential to produce small hail today. A dramatic shift toward warmer and drier weather comes mid to late week as low-level flow turns offshore and strong high pressure builds aloft. Once showers come to an end Tuesday evening, dry weather is expected through the weekend.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday...Latest infrared and water vapor imagery from GOES-West reveals plenty of low-level moisture being driven onshore across SW Washington and NW Oregon. This is leading to widespread and fast-moving showers moving onshore and across the region early this morning, but the moisture is lacking a cohesive forcing mechanism to organize the showers, so amounts have generally been light. The frontal system approaching the Pac NW coast appears to have occluded down to around 44N/126W, so any isentropic lift is very weak and will continue to be so as the frontal zone progresses into the Cascades this morning.

Behind the front, the 00z GFS shows 500 mb temps falling to -25 to -28 deg C this afternoon, steepening lapse rates and thus enhancing instability enough to warrant a chance of thunderstorms and small hail. The coldest air aloft will swing across the northern portion of the CWA, with instability looking a little more marginal over Lane County. Northern portions of the CWA will also see the front move through early in the morning, possibly yielding a few sun breaks later in the day. If sunbreaks are sufficient to push sfc temps into the mid-upper 50s, both NAM/GFS deterministic soundings suggest equilibrium levels could reach 15-18 kft with momentum possibly allowing cloud tops to reach 20 kft. This would be deep enough convection to produce a few lightning strikes today. With limited instability and SBCAPE values struggling to reach 500 J/kg, these cells won't be particularly strong nor organized. Brief heavy downpours can be expected from these showers, but steering flow will be W-SW at about 20 kt so the downpours shouldn't last particularly long unless training occurs.

A trailing shortwave will keep flow onshore and lapse rates steep enough to maintain showers tonight into Tuesday morning. After that, strong high pressure will build in from the Pacific while temps warm aloft. This will bring a swift end to the showers after sunset Tuesday, as a subsidence inversion increasingly pushes a capping inversion down below 10 kft and the air mass stabilizes with the loss of solar heating.

Showers will continue to push into the Cascades through Tuesday morning, then they should become less numerous throughout the day Tuesday. Snow levels remain unseasonably low, but marginal temperatures and strong May solar heating (even behind the clouds)
will likely lead to just wet roads for the midday and afternoon hours. As has been the case the last few nights, conditions deteriorate for the Cascade passes during the cooler night and morning hours, when the lack of solar energy makes it easier for snow to accumulate on paved surfaces. With this in mind, will extend the Winter Weather Advisory through 8 AM Tuesday morning, after which conditions should improve considerably with solar heating and decreasing showers. By the end of Tuesday, another 3-8 inches of snow are expected for the Cascade passes and above.

Tuesday night will need to be watched for the potential of frost in the lowlands, as residual cool air and good radiational cooling conditions are expected. The air mass may warm up sufficiently to keep the frost/freeze threat limited to our coldest and most outlying valleys such as the upper Nehalem and Hood River Valleys. Will need to assess how quickly skies will clear Tuesday afternoon and evening to determine whether or not frost/freeze products are warranted.

Wednesday will be transition day as strong high pressure asserts its dominance over the Pac NW weather pattern. Any morning clouds should clear quickly for plenty of afternoon sunshine. With the chilly start and flow still not totally offshore, Wednesday's high temperatures will probably remain in 60s for the lowlands despite the rapidly warming air mass aloft. That said, NBM probabilistic guidance suggests a 30-50% chance of reaching 70 degrees Wednesday afternoon across the PDX metro, so it is not out of the question the inland valleys reach the lower 70s as early as Wednesday. Weagle

LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...If you're ready for a break in the rain, the long term forecast is for you. If you're looking for temperatures in the 70s, and 80s, then mid and late this week are definitely for you! A large area of high pressure builds over the Pacific starting on Wednesday. Clusters are in very good agreement of this ridging, and how amplified it is stretching from off the coast of California up through southern Canada. The extent of this high will increase easterly flow as thermal troughs form along the coast. There will be a slight gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge and downsloping off of the Coast Range. There is still a lot of room for conditions to change, but there are very high probabilities (90% or higher) of temperatures rising into the 80s on Friday for all lowlands that are more than a couple miles from the coast, with similar high probabilities continuing into Saturday for lowlands east of the Coast Range. NBM chances of reaching 90 degrees have now increased to 40-60% for the PDX metro Friday and 30-50% for Saturday. Elsewhere in the interior valleys, the chance of reaching 90 deg F each day is generally less than 20% but not zero. Regardless of whether or not anyone actually reaches 90 degrees Friday or Saturday, confidence is high that these will be the warmest two days so far this year for much of the forecast area. Onshore flow likely returns for some cooling and coastal low clouds Sunday.

The main concern later this week is not so much the rising temperatures themselves, but the combination of the warm weather with rivers that are still very cold. Most rivers draining the Cascades will be loaded with fresh snowmelt, running fast and cold. With river temperatures in the 40s for many drainages, cold water shock is a very real possibility. So - while it may be tempting to jump into a refreshingly cool river or lake as temperatures warm up - doing so would be quite dangerous without proper equipment. Same goes for the ocean - sea surface temperatures are mostly in the lower 50s along the coast. Weagle/Muessle

AVIATION
The next front is currently in the process of moving through the area, with intermittent MVFR conditions at most terminals. KONP sees the strongest rain, and will likely remain at LIFR visibility and ceiling thresholds until the heaviest of the rain passes at 17-18z Mon. By 21z, all terminals will see at least a 75% chance of VFR conditions returning. Weak showers continue throughout the rest of the TAF period, with generally VFR conditions expected.

From late Monday morning onwards (18z), there is a chance (15-20%) for some slight thunderstorm activity throughout the region. Winds will generally shift west and become weak over the course of daytime hours Monday.

PDX AND APPROACHES...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions continue, with passing showers bringing brief reductions to MVFR ceilings at times for the next few hours until 15-17z Mon. Afterwards, less than a 10% chance of MVFR ceilings for the rest of the TAF period.
From 18z onwards, there is around a 15% chance of weak isolated thunderstorms throughout the rest of daytime hours and evening hours, through 07Z Tue. /JLiu

MARINE
The active weather pattern decreases into Monday with a small break of milder weather, followed by NW winds picking up again Monday afternoon to just barely above 21 kts. Afterwards, seas rise to just about 10-11 ft over Monday night, and the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Tuesday morning for the north and central waters. Afterwards another break in significant weather is expected during daytime hours Wednesday, but winds look to pick up again Wednesday evening, bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions back to the area. North winds look to peak right around 30 kts Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Chance of gales looks to currently be 10-20% so holding off on a Gale Warning for now. /JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ126>128.

WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251-252-271- 272.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ253-273.

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Garibaldi
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Mon -- 05:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:20 AM PDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:33 PM PDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:09 PM PDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
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Garibaldi, Oregon (2), Tide feet

Tillamook
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Mon -- 12:17 AM PDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:19 AM PDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:11 PM PDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:08 PM PDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
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Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet

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