Sunday, January24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Garibaldi, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 5:09PM Sunday January 24, 2021 2:06 AM PST (10:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:29PMMoonset 4:29AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 202 Pm Pst Sat Jan 23 2021
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Sun..NW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 16 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 14 ft at 12 seconds. Showers likely.
Mon..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 14 ft at 13 seconds. SEcondary swell nw 8 ft at 16 seconds. Showers likely.
Mon night..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 14 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue..SE wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 13 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 9 ft. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 13 ft.
Thu..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 10 ft.
PZZ200 202 Pm Pst Sat Jan 23 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A fast moving cold front passes across the waters early Sunday morning. Deep low will drop south Tuesday bringing another round of strong winds across the waters. Unsettled weather continues later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garibaldi, OR
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location: 45.57, -123.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 240540 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 940 PM PST Sat Jan 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Mother nature continues to bring the region back to 'typical January' weather over the next few days, with cool temperatures and low snow levels. Front arriving later tonight will spread rain inland, with snow to a 1000 to 1500 ft range, though could be a tad lower over Cowlitz Valley. Then, showery for Sun night through Mon evening, with snow levels 800 to 1500 ft. A break in the weather Monday night with dry conditions. Then another front arrives Tue with rain and snow levels near 1500 feet. Seasonably cool and unsettled weather continues through rest of next week.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Tuesday . No significant developments with a look at the early 00Z models and current observations. Satellite is showing good baroclinic leafing ahead of the approaching frontal system. This was expected as somewhat warmer southerly flow aloft gets lifted over the cooler surface air.

Again, no 00Z Salem sounding data given communications issues occurring well beyond the control of this office, but don't feel like it would help much at this time as the front is still well offshore and approaching from the northwest.

Did bring some very light snow accumulations down toward river level in the Longview/Kelso/Rainier area for late tonight/early Sunday morning. It's questionable as to how much, if any, will accumulate on roadways, but the non-paved surfaces may pick up less than a 1/2" by daybreak. That's about it for the lowest elevations across the region as southerly flow and relative higher pressure west of the Cascades will help keep temperatures just warm enough to prevent much interesting snow to occur below 700 feet for the next 36-48 hours. Some flakes will mix in with the rain, perhaps even down to sea level at the coast through Monday evening. /JBonk

Remaining previous discussion follows: As of 1 pm, the next weather system was about 200 miles offshore, or just crossing long 130W. This front will bring increasing clouds this evening, with rain to the coast after midnight, and spreading inland late tonight into early Sunday morning. But, this timing will be problematic, thanks to the chilly air mass in place. Most of the low to mid-level flow will turn more southerly overnight, with air mass moderating just a enough to maintain rain for the interior lowlands below 1000 feet. Does seem that could see some snowflakes mixed with the rain as the precipitation starts, likely between 5 amd and 7 am well inland. But, any accumulation will stay at/above 1000 feet.

But, areas to north of Portland could have some problems. Modeled soundings suggesting that air mass will be just above freezing for parts of southwestern interior of Washington. As precipitation starts, air mass will cool a tad. But, soundings suggest that will not take much to maintain a pro-snow environment down to the valley floor. As such, think will see a period when the rain transitions over to mostly snow for a time, roughly 6 am to 10 am, for good part of the Cowlitz River Valley, and southward towards Ridgefield and across northern Clark County, including Battle Ground. Ground will be cold enough to support minor accumulations, generally less than an inch and more likely a dusting to half inch. Still, could be enough to make for potentially messy driving conditions at times. Do have current Winter Weather Advisory for elevations above 1000 ft for later tonight through Sunday morning. But, add to that the areas above 500 feet for Cowlitz Lowlands, and above 700 feet in Clark and North Willamette Valley for Sunday morning.

Similar conditions expected in the eastern Columbia River Gorge, with snow levels will be between river level and 500 feet. But, with onset of precipitation being bit later in the morning, potential for low elevation snow is less, thanks to temperatures being a tad warmer. Snow will fall in the higher terrain of the Coast Range, Willapa Hills and foothills of the Cascades. As such, with snow levels 1000 to 1500 feet, will maintain current Winter Weather Advisory for those areas, as well as Cascades of Lane County. Total snowfall generally 2 to 6 inches, with 3 to 8 inches in Cascades.

Precipitation will become more showery in nature by afternoon, as the front shifts farther inland and more unstable air mass shifts inland. Overall, will maintain cool air mass, with snow levels 800 to 1200 feet inland for Sunday night and Monday morning. But, depending on intensity of showers, could see snow levels lower bit lower under the heavier showers, as the cold air aloft gets dragged downward, allowing snowflakes to survive lower towards the ground. But, any accumulations to the valley floor will be rather light, and very hit-n-miss. Overall trend will be towards decreasing showers.

Showers decreasing on later Monday into Monday night. This as the main low upper trough shifts inland over the Pac NW. At moment, not a lot of support for showers overnight Mon night. But, will keep 10-20 PoPs for the coast/coastal mtns, and dry inland. Will be chilly, with overnight lows dropping into upper 20s to lower 30s.

Another front arrives on Tuesday. Though snow levels start low, perhaps at 500 to 1000 feet in the morning. This could be another challenging forecast, thanks to the snow potential as the front arrives. Models continue to slow this front down a bit, with rain not reaching coast until sometime Tue morning, with precipitation spreading inland in the afternoon. If so, this could result in slightly higher snow levels. For now, will keep formerly mentioned trend, and let future shifts re-evaluate models/trends for evolving Tue forecast. But, would not be surprised if this gets delay a bit, allowing for temperatures inland to warm a bit as get tad more southerly flow in advance of the front. /Rockey

LONG TERM. Tuesday night through Saturday . No big changes. Main upper low/trough will sit just offshore for Tue night through Thu. This will maintain unsettled weather, with some chance of showers. Snow levels will stay in the 1000 to 1500 feet through that time, with brief periods down to 500 to 1000 ft at times with any heavier showers. Main story will be continued cool weather, with highs in the lower to middle 40s and overnight lows in upper 20s to middle 30s. That trough will shift inland later Thu night into Fri, with decreasing showers. But, another system from the Gulf of Alaska will drop southeast into the Pac NW next weekend, bring more precipitation and chilly air. While snow levels look to stay in 1500 to 2000 range on Saturday, there is some indication snow levels again drop back to 500 to 1500 feet by next Sunday Lowlands snow lovers. stay tuned, as it is that time of the year. /Rockey

AVIATION. Mid and high level clouds increasing across the area with light showers at the coast. Cigs generally 035-050 inland and 030-035 at the coast. Rain is expected to start along the coast between 09-10Z Sunday. Ceilings will deteriorate into MVFR criteria in the valley after 12Z, possibly IFR at times 15Z- 21Z per current CONSshort guidance. GFS and NAM relative humidity and condensation pressure deficit support the idea of IFR cigs. Snow levels will drop to around 1000 ft leading to a mixture of precipitatiion across the region. Low level southwesterly flow and cloud cover will keep overnight lows above freezing reducing any chances for freezing rain to develop. Low elevation areas north of KMMV and around KKLS will likely have lower snow levels so may see a rain-snow mix.

For detailed regional Pac NW weather information, go online to: http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Currently VFR with cigs around 045. Ceilings will lower into 1500-2000 ft late tonight with light rain. A rain-snow mix is likely around 15Z for a couple hours before transitioning back to rain but no accumulation is expected. IFR cigs and visibilities possible 15-21Z. /mh -BPhillips

MARINE. Fast moving cold front is expected to cross over the waters late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The period of southerly winds within the warm front will be brief and transition to a northwesterly wind regime by 8 to 10 AM Sunday. The cold airmass being transported south from the Gulf of Alaska will assist in mixing down stronger winds aloft. A Gale Warning is in effect starting 10 AM Sunday. Wind gusts between 35-40 kt behind the cold front are likely to persist through Monday morning. Seas will build into the mid to upper teens Sunday afternoon and stay above 15 ft through Monday afternoon. Probabilistic wave guidance shows a 50-60% chance that PZZ270 seas will reach between 18-20 ft. Winds will diminish to below SCA criteria Monday night.

A weakening but still potent system will drop south Tuesday bringing another round of high winds and building seas. The system will open up spreading gale and storm force winds across much of the NE Pacific. There is potential for storm force winds ahead of the cold front which will swing across the coastal waters Tuesday afternoon but confidence is low at this time. Wave heights will continue to trend between 12-14 ft Tuesday through Wednesday. -BPhillips

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Sunday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Cascades in Lane County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon PST Sunday for Greater Portland Metro Area.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM PST Sunday for Lower Columbia.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Sunday for Coast Range of Northwest Oregon.

WA . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon PST Sunday for Greater Vancouver Area.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM PST Sunday for I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Sunday for Willapa Hills.

PZ . Gale Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday for Columbia River Bar.

Gale Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi49 min 1015.2 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 45 mi49 min SE 5.1 G 7 40°F 44°F1014 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 46 mi41 min 46°F7 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 49 mi37 min S 9.7 G 12 44°F 47°F1013.3 hPa41°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR12 mi72 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist41°F37°F87%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day ago----------------CalmW3NW4W6W5W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE6CalmCalm
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Barview
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:33 AM PST     3.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:29 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM PST     7.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:28 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:17 PM PST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:11 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:57 PM PST     5.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.643.73.644.85.86.87.47.46.964.73.21.90.90.50.61.42.53.74.75.45.6

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Brighton
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:31 AM PST     3.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:29 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:41 AM PST     7.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:27 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:15 PM PST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:11 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:06 PM PST     5.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.94.443.94.35.16.177.77.87.46.453.5210.50.71.42.53.84.95.65.9

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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