Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Garibaldi, OR

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Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:15PM Monday August 19, 2019 9:11 PM PDT (04:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:29PMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 849 Pm Pdt Mon Aug 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..N wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue..S wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..S wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the morning. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 10 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..NW wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Thu night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 6 ft.
Fri..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. SW swell 5 ft.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 849 Pm Pdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak ridge of high pressure will persist over the coastal waters through early Tuesday, then give way to an approaching frontal system later Tue night into Wed. The approaching frontal system will bring small craft advisory conditions to all of our waters. This front will likely move onshore by late Wed afternoon, with some W to nw swell lingering into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garibaldi, OR
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location: 45.57, -123.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 192135
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national service portland or
234 pm pdt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis Morning low clouds are giving way to afternoon sunshine
today across much of the forecast area, with temperatures near
mid-august normals. High clouds will increase and thicken Tuesday
ahead of an approaching frontal system, with rain possible along the
coast by late Tuesday night. Wednesday will be a damp day for much of
the forecast area as a cold front moves through. Expect a return to
more seasonable conditions Thursday and Friday, though a weak system
passing by to the north may clip our north coastal zones with some
light rain or drizzle by the weekend.

Short term This afternoon through Thursday... Latest visible
satellite imagery shows low clouds clearing from inland areas,
retreating back to the lower columbia and willapa hills. Overall this
is turning out to be a fairly typical mid-august day, and high
temperatures should generally top out near seasonal normals. Skies
will remain mostly clear this evening, then the 12z href suggests low
clouds will redevelop along the coast with a limited push inland
Tuesday morning. Most areas will drop into the 50s overnight tonight,
though some cooler valleys could dip into the mid to upper 40s. These
cooler, wind-sheltered valleys could also see patchy fog Tuesday
morning due to optimal radiational cooling.

Attention then turns to the "main event" of this week, in the form of
a very impressive moisture plume crossing the pacific. Total
precipitable water (tpw) values in excess of 2 inches are now
reaching east of 150w, between 35n-40n. This moisture-rich air mass
traces back to tropical storm krosa, which made landfall in southern
japan back on august 14th. The moisture is being pulled into a
well-developed low pressure system centered near 42n 145w, spawning a
very early-season atmospheric river that will eventually make
landfall on the pac NW coast late Tue night or Wednesday. While tpw
values will likely moderate some by that time, the incoming frontal
system will still be loaded with moisture as GEFS and ec ensemble
means are suggesting tpw values near 1.50 inches for salem Wednesday.

This is in the neighborhood of 4 standard deviations above the
climatological mean, with a return interval of 10-30 years for the
3-week period centered on aug 21.

While it is apparent that the incoming system will have plenty of
moisture to work with, it is less clear how much forcing will be in
play to wring out that moisture. Much will depend on the interplay
between the above-mentioned low now near 42n 145w and the northern
stream upper trough emerging from the gulf of alaska. Most model
guidance shows some phasing together of the two systems, with some of
the stronger runs showing an unusually powerful-for-august and
potentially sub-985 mb low making landfall on the british columbia
coast early Wednesday. The earlier the phasing occurs, the more jet
energy that will become available for forcing to the south of the
system, across western wa or. At this point, most models do not phase
the systems fast enough to allow much more than a 50-60 kt secondary
jet MAX as far south as our cwa; instead, they keep the bulk of the
jet energy well to our north and aimed toward the british columbia
coast. This seems to indicate only weak forcing across our forecast
area as the plume of deeper moisture moves through Wednesday, and
less likelihood for waves of low pressure to develop along the front
to provide the necessary focus for heavier rain.

All this discussion is to make the point that while most of the
forecast area will see increasing clouds and humidity Tuesday and
some rain Wednesday, amounts should generally be light for most of
the district... Especially considering the depth of moisture in play.

Currently expecting less than 0.25 inch for the willamette
valley... Especially west of i-5. Portions of SW washington,
particularly the higher terrain, will see a bit more QPF with up to 1
inch possible. However, given the moisture available, subtle changes
(like earlier phasing and or stronger lows developing along the front
as it moves onshore) could result in much more qpf, especially along
the coast and in the higher terrain. Winds associated with the front,
as shown by current guidance, appear to remain modest though gusts
25-35 mph will be possible for the capes along the coast.

Aside from a couple lingering early morning showers in the cascades,
Thursday should be mainly dry across the forecast area. Based on 12z
nam time-heights and soundings, morning clouds will likely give way
to afternoon sunshine and temperatures climbing back up to the upper
70s or lower 80s. Northerly flow will likely dry out the humidity
left behind by Wednesday's front, setting the stage for a cool early
autumn-like night with many spots likely to dip into the 40s. Weagle

Long term Friday through Wednesday morning... In the extended
period, a shortwave passes over northwest oregon southwest
washington on Friday night. This shortwave, coupled with decent
upper air support in the jet stream, will bring another chance of
rain to the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Much of the
rain would fall along the north coast and willapa hills, with very
little expected to make it inland over the foothills.

After the shortwave passes and rain dissipates, a ridge begins to
build over the west coast on Sunday at 500 mb. This is the point
where models begin to diverge. The ec creates a more amplified ridge
with high pressure building over the pacific ocean while the gfs,
while still bringing in high pressure, is much less dramatic and
takes on a flatter, more zonal synoptic pattern. This is creating
some uncertainty, especially regarding temperatures as the GFS is
the cooler of the two models. If the ec model output pans out,
temperatures easily could be in the mid 80s, while the GFS would
keep temperatures cooler in the upper 70s. With either solution,
conditions are expected to be mostly clear and dry. Muessle

Aviation Vfr is expected to prevail over the area through
tonight. Expect the marine stratus to reform along the coast
starting around 05z Tuesday bringing MVFR CIGS to areas north of
konp around 09z Tuesday. Areas around and south of konp expect
MVFR ifr conditions following a similar time frame. Konp could
see some lifr vis and CIGS starting around 12z Tuesday.

Valley locations will be a challenge tonight. The marine layer
isn't expected to be as deep as the past few nights. Combining
that with the S SW wind shift expected over the next 24 hours,
expect some pockets of MVFR CIGS within the valley but not a
full-fledged intrusion. Often times, this kind of scenario will keep
northern locationsVFR, but satellite is showing a stratus deck
around 3000 to 3500 feet lingering along the western part of the
columbia river. This maintains the possibility that marine clouds
might push back further inland though the morning hours and could
provide an MVFR deck for kpdx and other locations along the
columbia river.

Kpdx and approaches... PredominatelyVFR conditions expected
through Tuesday morning. However, a stratus deck around 3000 to
3500 feet lingering along the western part of the columbia river
could bring back MVFR CIGS to the terminal later tonight or early
Tuesday morning. 42

Marine Weak high pressure offshore is producing relatively
quiet conditions over the waters. Seas remain in the 4 to 6 ft
range, mainly from a NW swell. North to northwest winds are
expected to stay at 15 kt or less through early Tuesday.

Significant changes begin Tuesday, with winds becoming s-se
ahead of an approaching frontal system. A small craft advisory
has been issued starting on Tuesday afternoon for our outer
waters. Expect these small craft winds to slowly progress
towards the inner waters by late Wednesday afternoon. The
strongest winds are expected from Tuesday night through Wednesday
with gusts of 30 kt in our outer waters, and some isolated gusts
higher than 30 kt could be experienced.

Seas will generally start to build towards 6 to 8 feet with the
potential for some steep square seas too. The wind wave and swell
associated with this system could push seas towards 10 feet
Wednesday and Thursday. The area that would have the best chance
of having 10 foot seas is our northern waters due to larger
swells and potentially stronger wind. 42

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 11 am pdt Wednesday
for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm Tuesday to 5 pm pdt Wednesday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi72 min 59°F1014 hPa (-1.7)
46096 43 mi92 min N 9.7 G 12 59°F 63°F1014.5 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 45 mi72 min NNW 8 G 12 66°F 69°F1014.2 hPa (-1.6)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 46 mi42 min 63°F4 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 49 mi82 min N 9.7 G 12 64°F 65°F6 ft1015 hPa (-1.6)58°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR12 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair63°F53°F73%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SE5CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW8NW11NW11NW14
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1 day agoW3S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6NW6NW8W8NW11
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2 days agoW4W4CalmS3S3S3CalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmN4N5NW9NW13NW10NW14W8W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Barview
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Tue -- 03:39 AM PDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:08 AM PDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:21 PM PDT     6.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:49 PM PDT     1.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.14.25.36.16.25.74.83.62.41.61.21.42.33.6566.66.55.94.93.72.721.8

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Brighton
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Tue -- 03:48 AM PDT     6.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:06 AM PDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 PM PDT     6.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:47 PM PDT     1.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.24.45.56.36.56.15.13.92.61.71.31.62.43.75.16.26.96.96.35.242.92.12

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.