Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. James, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:59PM Saturday August 8, 2020 2:14 AM EDT (06:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:36PMMoonset 10:30AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ362 Expires:202008080915;;100199 Fzus63 Kmkx 080151 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 851 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 7 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure around 30.1 inches over lower michigan will continue to move slowly east toward lake erie overnight and Saturday. Lighter southerly winds will become breezy on Saturday as warmer and more humid air moves into the region. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front in minnesota will result in south winds gusting to around 30 knots across the northern open waters on Saturday. A few gusts could reach gale force late in the morning and afternoon. Also, these winds will bring increasing wave heights across the lake, especially for the northern portions. The chance for showers and Thunderstorms will increase later in the weekend and into Monday as a cold front pushes southeast through the region. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-080915- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 851 pm cdt Fri aug 7 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Saturday night..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ362


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. James, MI
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location: 45.58, -85.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 080233 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1033 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1007 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Short-wave ridging and a broad area of surface high pressure remains over the central and eastern lakes region this evening. Strong return flow of warm/moist air stretches from the Gulf up through the northern Plains with MLCAPE values running 2K-4K J/Kg through that region. Meanwhile, short-wave impulse is sliding through northern Minnesota acting upon the instability axis and driving a compact areas of showers/storms through that area. Spottier showers also noted moving into far western Wisconsin along the advancing moisture gradient.

Quiet weather will hold across the forecast area through tonight although with some high level cloud cover moving through the region. Upstream short-wave impulse will slide into the far western Great Lakes by early morning and cross northern Michigan on Saturday, while moisture/instability axis slowly leans into the region. Associated showers/thunder with this feature sill looking to hold off until mid-late morning onward.

NEAR TERM. (Through Saturday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

. A few showers and thunderstorms Saturday .

High impact weather potential: Minimal. Might see a few non-severe thunderstorms Saturday. Will need to watch for high swim risk on Saturday along portions of the Lake Michigan coast of eastern upper Michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Weak mid level ridge overspreading the area early this afternoon, with the downstairs environment dominated by slowly exiting surface high pressure. The result has been a mostly sunny and seasonably mild day, with current temperatures spiking well up into the 70s and lower 80s Looking upstream. weak mid level impulse racing east across the northern Plains, with a much more robust shortwave trough pivoting northeast across the southern Canadian Rockies. Surge of deep moisture and attendant area of showers and thunderstorms tied to the former wave . and it is this wave that looks to bring the first of a multi-period shower/storm threat to our area as it races east into the northern Great Lakes on Saturday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature/cloud trends and addressing those increasing shower chances on Saturday.

Details:

Quiet tonight with just some increasing high level clouds late as initial top-down moisture advection begins ahead of that approaching northern Plains wave. Maintenance of some light southerly winds on backside of retreating surface high will keep temperatures several degrees warmer than those observed the last few nights, with readings ranging through the 50s by the early morning hours (a bit warmer near those big waters).

Developing low level jet response (perhaps enhanced as it crosses Lake Michigan shallow stable layer) ahead of that shortwave directs strong moisture advection into the region as we head through Saturday. Primary dynamics clip the north half of the area, especially eastern upper Michigan where forced ascent on nose of low level jet and best mid level response are juxtaposed. Expect showers to ride/develop east along elevated instability gradient. Definitely not overly confident on coverage or organization of this activity, but will continue to focus at least some likely wording for areas north of the big bridge. Shower chances steadily decrease as one travels south, with a good portion of northern Michigan currently expected to remain dry until at least Saturday night. Area remains centered under just general thunder wording in latest SPC Day 2 convective outlook . with limited surface rooted instability precluding much severe weather concern. Widespread highs in the lower and middle 80s expected, although how quickly clouds and showers overspread the region will have plenty to say on just how warm temperatures get.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

. Very Warm and Humid with Shower/Storm Chances .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

Forecast Concerns . Pops through the period.

There is nearly zonal flow aloft with a short wave and perhaps a mesoscale convective complex moving through the flow Saturday night followed by the approach of a surface cold front Monday. This setup in combination with daytime heating will lead to periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period. Models indicate that there will be plenty of afternoon instability for both Sunday and Monday afternoons with mixed layer capes of 2,000-3,000 J/Kg+. However, wind fields are rather weak with 0-6 Km bulk shear less then 30 knots. Although widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, strong surface heating could lead to decent downdraft winds. Heavy downpours are likely with any storms as precipitable water values increase to between 1.5 and 2 inches. Humidity will be on the rise with surface dewpoints increasing to the uncomfortable upper 60s and low 70s. Lows Saturday and Sunday nights in the mid 60s to low 70s. Highs in the 80s to near 90 Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

. Not Quite as Warm and Less Humid .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

A surface cold front moves through Monday evening ending rain chances. Not quite as warm but definitely less humid conditions then follow into mid-week before more building ridging/heat to end next week. Temperatures will remain at least a few degrees above normal through the period and likely beyond as the pattern looks like a warm one.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday evening) Issued at 1033 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VFR weather holds through tonight although with some high cloud cover streaming through. Upstream, a short-wave impulse is over northern Minnesota late this evening, driving a small area of showers and thunderstorms. This feature will slide through northern Michigan on Saturday and expected to bring some showers/storms to the region from late morning onward. Cigs will lower to around 4K-6K during the day Saturday as this occurs. Some lower MVFR cloud cover might spill into northern Lower Michigan Saturday night.

Otherwise, gustier SW winds develop across the region during the day Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Light winds into this evening become increasingly gusty out of the south and southwest later tonight into Saturday, with small craft advisory conditions likely developing on portions of northern Lake Michigan on Saturday. Southwest winds remain gusty through Saturday evening, with winds gradually decreasing in speed during the overnight hours. Dry weather tonight gives way to the potential for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday into the start of next work week.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MIZ025-031-095-098. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . BA MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 26 mi94 min S 5.1 G 8 76°F 1020.7 hPa
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 32 mi56 min 66°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 35 mi94 min S 6 G 7 67°F 1019 hPa
45175 44 mi35 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 69°F 68°F1020 hPa58°F
45183 44 mi44 min S 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 69°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 45 mi56 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 71°F1019.2 hPa55°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi34 min S 14 G 18 70°F 69°F1018.8 hPa66°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaver Island, Beaver Island Airport, MI8 mi53 minSSE 310.00 miFair63°F57°F83%1020 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi20 minSE 410.00 miFair61°F58°F91%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSJX

Wind History from SJX (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.