Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 6:26AM||Sunset 8:59PM||Saturday August 8, 2020 2:14 AM EDT (06:14 UTC)||Moonrise 10:36PM||Moonset 10:30AM||Illumination 82%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. James, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 080233 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1033 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020
UPDATE. Issued at 1007 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020
Short-wave ridging and a broad area of surface high pressure remains over the central and eastern lakes region this evening. Strong return flow of warm/moist air stretches from the Gulf up through the northern Plains with MLCAPE values running 2K-4K J/Kg through that region. Meanwhile, short-wave impulse is sliding through northern Minnesota acting upon the instability axis and driving a compact areas of showers/storms through that area. Spottier showers also noted moving into far western Wisconsin along the advancing moisture gradient.
Quiet weather will hold across the forecast area through tonight although with some high level cloud cover moving through the region. Upstream short-wave impulse will slide into the far western Great Lakes by early morning and cross northern Michigan on Saturday, while moisture/instability axis slowly leans into the region. Associated showers/thunder with this feature sill looking to hold off until mid-late morning onward.
NEAR TERM. (Through Saturday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020
. A few showers and thunderstorms Saturday .
High impact weather potential: Minimal. Might see a few non-severe thunderstorms Saturday. Will need to watch for high swim risk on Saturday along portions of the Lake Michigan coast of eastern upper Michigan.
Weak mid level ridge overspreading the area early this afternoon, with the downstairs environment dominated by slowly exiting surface high pressure. The result has been a mostly sunny and seasonably mild day, with current temperatures spiking well up into the 70s and lower 80s Looking upstream. weak mid level impulse racing east across the northern Plains, with a much more robust shortwave trough pivoting northeast across the southern Canadian Rockies. Surge of deep moisture and attendant area of showers and thunderstorms tied to the former wave . and it is this wave that looks to bring the first of a multi-period shower/storm threat to our area as it races east into the northern Great Lakes on Saturday.
Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature/cloud trends and addressing those increasing shower chances on Saturday.
Quiet tonight with just some increasing high level clouds late as initial top-down moisture advection begins ahead of that approaching northern Plains wave. Maintenance of some light southerly winds on backside of retreating surface high will keep temperatures several degrees warmer than those observed the last few nights, with readings ranging through the 50s by the early morning hours (a bit warmer near those big waters).
Developing low level jet response (perhaps enhanced as it crosses Lake Michigan shallow stable layer) ahead of that shortwave directs strong moisture advection into the region as we head through Saturday. Primary dynamics clip the north half of the area, especially eastern upper Michigan where forced ascent on nose of low level jet and best mid level response are juxtaposed. Expect showers to ride/develop east along elevated instability gradient. Definitely not overly confident on coverage or organization of this activity, but will continue to focus at least some likely wording for areas north of the big bridge. Shower chances steadily decrease as one travels south, with a good portion of northern Michigan currently expected to remain dry until at least Saturday night. Area remains centered under just general thunder wording in latest SPC Day 2 convective outlook . with limited surface rooted instability precluding much severe weather concern. Widespread highs in the lower and middle 80s expected, although how quickly clouds and showers overspread the region will have plenty to say on just how warm temperatures get.
SHORT TERM. (Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020
. Very Warm and Humid with Shower/Storm Chances .
High Impact Weather Potential . Low.
Forecast Concerns . Pops through the period.
There is nearly zonal flow aloft with a short wave and perhaps a mesoscale convective complex moving through the flow Saturday night followed by the approach of a surface cold front Monday. This setup in combination with daytime heating will lead to periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period. Models indicate that there will be plenty of afternoon instability for both Sunday and Monday afternoons with mixed layer capes of 2,000-3,000 J/Kg+. However, wind fields are rather weak with 0-6 Km bulk shear less then 30 knots. Although widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, strong surface heating could lead to decent downdraft winds. Heavy downpours are likely with any storms as precipitable water values increase to between 1.5 and 2 inches. Humidity will be on the rise with surface dewpoints increasing to the uncomfortable upper 60s and low 70s. Lows Saturday and Sunday nights in the mid 60s to low 70s. Highs in the 80s to near 90 Sunday and Monday.
LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020
. Not Quite as Warm and Less Humid .
High Impact Weather Potential . Low.
A surface cold front moves through Monday evening ending rain chances. Not quite as warm but definitely less humid conditions then follow into mid-week before more building ridging/heat to end next week. Temperatures will remain at least a few degrees above normal through the period and likely beyond as the pattern looks like a warm one.
AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday evening) Issued at 1033 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020
VFR weather holds through tonight although with some high cloud cover streaming through. Upstream, a short-wave impulse is over northern Minnesota late this evening, driving a small area of showers and thunderstorms. This feature will slide through northern Michigan on Saturday and expected to bring some showers/storms to the region from late morning onward. Cigs will lower to around 4K-6K during the day Saturday as this occurs. Some lower MVFR cloud cover might spill into northern Lower Michigan Saturday night.
Otherwise, gustier SW winds develop across the region during the day Saturday.
MARINE. Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020
Light winds into this evening become increasingly gusty out of the south and southwest later tonight into Saturday, with small craft advisory conditions likely developing on portions of northern Lake Michigan on Saturday. Southwest winds remain gusty through Saturday evening, with winds gradually decreasing in speed during the overnight hours. Dry weather tonight gives way to the potential for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday into the start of next work week.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MIZ025-031-095-098. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.
UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . BA MARINE . mb
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI||26 mi||94 min||S 5.1 G 8||76°F||1020.7 hPa|
|PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI||32 mi||56 min||66°F|
|NABM4 - Naubinway, MI||35 mi||94 min||S 6 G 7||67°F||1019 hPa|
|45175||44 mi||35 min||NE 3.9 G 3.9||69°F||68°F||1020 hPa||58°F|
|45183||44 mi||44 min||S 7.8 G 9.7||67°F||69°F|
|MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI||45 mi||56 min||SSW 1.9 G 2.9||65°F||71°F||1019.2 hPa||55°F|
|45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands.||49 mi||34 min||S 14 G 18||70°F||69°F||1018.8 hPa||66°F|
Wind History for Port Inland, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Beaver Island, Beaver Island Airport, MI||8 mi||53 min||SSE 3||10.00 mi||Fair||63°F||57°F||83%||1020 hPa|
|Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI||24 mi||20 min||SE 4||10.00 mi||Fair||61°F||58°F||91%||1020.3 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSJX
Wind History from SJX (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||W||SW|
|2 days ago||NW||NW||NW||N||N||N||W||NW||W||W||W|
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off)  Help
EDIT (on/off)  Help
Weather Map(on/off)  Help Weather Map
GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
Ad by Google
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.