Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 4:28PM Sunday December 15, 2019 1:29 PM PST (21:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:19PMMoonset 10:52AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 840 Am Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am pst this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm pst this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...6 to 8 ft through Monday. - first ebb...occurred 645 am this morning. Seas 9 to 11 ft until 9 am. - second ebb...strong ebb around 645 pm Sunday. Seas 11 to 13 ft with breakers likely. - third ebb...around 730 am Monday. Seas to 8 ft.
PZZ200 840 Am Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will persist over the pac nw through Monday, then shift east of the cascades Tuesday. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across mainly the outer waters tonight and Monday. Offshore flow will increase Monday night and Tuesday, turning more southerly midweek as a potent frontal system approaches the pac nw coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, WA
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location: 45.65, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 151658 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . Update National Weather Service Portland OR 857 AM PST Sun Dec 15 2019

Updated Aviation and Marine sections.

SYNOPSIS. Fairly benign weather the next couple of days will likely give way to a multi-day stretch of notably wet and active weather mid to late week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday . Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning reveals a shortwave ridge offshore shifting eastward towards the Pacific Northwest. This has resulted in the atmosphere stabilizing overnight. Light winds and lingering moisture near the surface have allowed plenty of low clouds and some patchy fog to develop across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington early this morning. Given the weak pressure gradients expected across the area today, low clouds and fog should be slow to clear and many locations in the Willamette and lower Columbia River valleys appear unlikely to clear. As a result, have lowered high temperatures for inland valley locations a couple of degrees for today.

Models are in good agreement a warm front will shift eastward towards the region tonight. While operational models have come into better agreement that it will fall apart enough that the area will remain dry, there are enough ensemble members that bring at least some light rain to our western zones that have maintained slight chance to low chance PoPs for later tonight and early Monday. Shortwave ridging will then shift more squarely over the region late Monday into Monday night so expect more areas of fog and low clouds to develop. The main exception to this will be across the northern half of the Willamette Valley where increasing east winds near the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge will likely prevent widespread fog and low clouds from developing.

Models are in good agreement the next shortwave trough approaching the region will split and weaken, as most storms seemingly have the last several weeks, considerably as it hits the Pacific Northwest later Tuesday. As a result, have kept PoPs in the slight chance to chance categories for Tuesday into Tuesday night. With that said, this storm system will likely be the sacrificial lamb and open the door for strong zonal flow to spread across the region Wednesday. Models are in good agreement this will be in response to a broad shortwave trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more solid shot of rain Wednesday as a cold front pushes eastward across the area. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . Models and their ensembles are in general agreement a broad shortwave trough will move into the Gulf of Alaska midweek before digging southeastward towards the West Coast of the US next weekend. Concurrently, a shortwave ridge will build northward into the Rocky Mountain states. As this occurs, a strong zonal jet will take aim at the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into early Thursday. There have been a few model runs over the past couple of days that result in a surface low pressure developing and moving northeastward towards the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into early Thursday, but most model solutions keep the low pressure either very weak or nonexistent. Nonetheless, the pattern seems conducive for a surface low pressure to develop and move close enough to the region to at least bring a threat of high winds to the coast. Even though the latest operational model runs show few signs of this occurring this will be worth monitoring.

Meanwhile, models are in better agreement that at least a moderate strength atmospheric river will end up impacting the West Coast of the US Thursday into Friday night. Given the digging nature of the offshore trough, the atmospheric river could stall or at least waver back and forth between northern California, Oregon and Washington during this timeframe. While the operational GFS, and particularly the EC are somewhat ominous and would likely result in at least some flooding issues in our CWA late in the week, the GEFS and EPS suggest there is a lot of uncertainty in how long the steadier rain will reside over our CWA mid to late week . at least a lot more so than just looking at the operational GFS and EC. Will wait for more of a consensus among the models and their ensembles before issuing any products highlighting potential impacts.

It should be noted there may be some winter precipitation type issues in the Gorge when the initial warm front spreads into the region late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but given the marginally cold temperatures east of the Cascades currently, confidence in significant issues arising is low at this point. This pattern does seem conducive for heavier snow to fall across the higher terrain between Mt Hood and Mt Adams initially Wednesday night into early Thursday regardless. Nonetheless, temperatures should moderate enough late Thursday and Friday that snow levels will likely climb above the Cascade passes during any heavier bouts of precipitation late Thursday and Friday.

Expect precipitation to turn more showery and snow levels to lower below the Cascade passes next weekend as the main upper level trough spreads eastward over the area. Given the digging nature of the shortwave trough as it hits the West Coast of the US and the bulk of the energy appears likely to remain south of the region, low level westerly flow should not be terribly strong across our CWA. This will likely limit snow totals across our Cascades next weekend despite the colder temperatures and modest instability spreading across the area. /Neuman

AVIATION. IFR conditions have expanded across much of the forecast area this morning, with patchy LIFR in typical foggier spots such as KHIO and KEUG. VFR is more prevalent along the coast, though there are some patches of fog in the coastal valleys. Expect only slow improvement today, with most sites MVFR by 20z and VFR cigs by the end of the afternoon. Light offshore flow should develop along the coast tonight, allowing them to remain VFR. Meanwhile cigs will lower again through the night with MVFR and areas IFR developing overnight.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . IFR cigs have developed over the area, and are expected to persist through 19Z Sunday as the cigs slowly lift towards VFR this afternoon. Weagle/42

MARINE. Seas continue to be stubborn to lower as a westerly swell around 10 ft persists. Decided to issue a SCA for the seas for all but our northern inner waters today, though brief 10 ft seas cannot be ruled out there either. Seas may subside a foot or two this evening, but south to southeast winds will be increasing due to an approaching warm front. Therefore the SCA continues through Monday afternoon for the outer waters, where gusts 25 kt will be most frequent later tonight and Monday. High pressure is expected to strengthen over the inland Pac NW Monday, leading to increasing E-SE winds Monday and Tuesday. Some uncertainty lingers regarding an approaching frontal system for midweek, but there appears to be decent potential for at least localized Gale Force gusts and seas reaching well into the teens (in feet) sometime during the period of Wed-Fri. Weagle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 33 mi59 min 45°F1024.4 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 61 mi65 min 49°F1024 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 65 mi59 min SSE 4.1 G 6 40°F 45°F1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi36 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast44°F37°F76%1024.7 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast43°F37°F80%1025 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR10 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast42°F37°F82%1024.7 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR12 mi36 minNNW 37.00 miOvercast39°F37°F93%1024.8 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR21 mi36 minN 09.00 miOvercast43°F37°F80%1024.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVUO

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3E3SE554S3SE8SE6SE7SE8SE4CalmSE53----SE6--Calm--3SE9S3
1 day agoSW75--Calm565CalmSW65Calm4E4SE7SE5CalmS3SW8Calm6S3S5S5S4
2 days agoSE7E5SW93S6S33W6SW7E34S3E4E3CalmE3NW5Calm----5SW7SW5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:57 AM PST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:42 AM PST     1.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:51 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:18 PM PST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:31 PM PST     1.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:27 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:10 PM PST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:20 PM PST     2.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.40.2-0-0.200.51.11.51.61.41.211.11.10.90.80.91.31.82.121.6

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:27 AM PST     7.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM PST     2.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:56 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:20 PM PST     9.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:00 PM PST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.92.84.96.57.47.46.75.54.33.433.24.56.48.198.986.34.42.40.9-0.1-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.