Monday, August3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:37PM Monday August 3, 2020 11:06 AM PDT (18:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:10PMMoonset 4:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 242 Am Pdt Mon Aug 3 2020
In the main channel.. - general seas...1 to 3 ft through Monday. - first ebb...strong. Around 515 am Monday. Seas near 6 ft with breakers possible. - second ebb...around 545 pm Monday. Seas near 5 ft. - third ebb...strong. Around 6 am Tuesday. Seas near 5 ft with breakers possible.
PZZ200 242 Am Pdt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak front will continue to move across the waters this morning. High pressure then builds over the northeast pacific later today and holds through Wednesday resulting in the return of northerly winds. Another front looks to then move across the waters later this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, WA
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location: 45.65, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 031612 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 911 AM PDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Updated Aviation/Marine sections

SYNOPSIS. Expect a mix of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine with temperatures generally hovering near to slightly above average for the next several days. Our first shot at a widespread light rain event since late June/early July will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday . Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning reveals a shortwave trough lifting northeastward across Washington. The main area of mid to upper level lift associated with this wave has already shifted northeast of the region and 500mb heights are beginning to build across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington in its wake. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery reveals marine clouds have solidly filled in along the coast and are pushing through the Coast Range gaps. Given current marine cloud coverage and HREF guidance, we should see marine clouds spread into both the far northern and southern ends of the Willamette Valley this morning. More uncertainty exists in whether or not clouds will fill into the central Willamette Valley this morning. In addition, weak onshore flow coupled with the marine clouds along the coast have already produced pockets of drizzle along the coast. Expect this to continue this morning before precipitation odds gradually dissipate as daytime heating helps to break up the marine clouds towards midday.

Models are in decent agreement a vort max currently near 140W and 39N will slide eastward and maintain weak upper level troughing across the Pacific Northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are in good agreement pressure gradients will remain onshore. This will maintain cool conditions along the coast with temperatures warming well into the 80s in the Willamette Valley and Columbia River Gorge Tuesday and Wednesday. Onshore pressure gradients look to hold relatively steady today into Tuesday. This should maintain the breezy westerly winds through the Columbia River Gorge and the area around the Fir Mountain Fire during this time. As the pattern becomes more amplified Wednesday and thermally induced low pressure strengthens east of the Cascades, pressure gradients appear likely to increase across the Cascades. As a result, expect westerly winds to pick up a notch in the aforementioned locations Wednesday. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . Models and their ensembles are in reasonable agreement a somewhat sharp and negatively tilted trough will slide east-northeastward across the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into Thursday. There still remain some differences among the ensembles in the timing and particularly the amplitude of the shortwave trough, which results in uncertainty in QPF amounts expected across the region. The WPC cluster analysis of the 12z ensemble data suggests just 10% of the CMCE, GEFS and EPS ensemble members produce a pattern where the main shortwave trough just glances the region and produces little to no rain across the CWA . perhaps just a couple hundredths in the most favored west facing slopes in the Coast Range and Cascades north of a line extending between Tillamook and Mt Adams. Meanwhile, 30% of the ensemble members produce at least a tenth of an inch of rain across almost the entire CWA with sizable areas of at least a quarter of an inch across the typical wetter areas of the north Oregon Coast Range and south WA Cascades. The remaining 60% of the ensembles produce scenarios somewhere in the middle of these two extremes where at least a tenth of an inch will fall across good portions of the Coast Range and Cascades with lesser amounts in the Willamette Valley. This is also reflected in the 07z NBM 1D viewer guidance, which places odds of at least 0.05" falling in 24 hrs at KPDX at 55%, 0.10"/24hr at 39% and 0.25"/24hr at 14% Wednesday night into Thursday. Given the uncertainty in the amplitude of the shortwave trough these odds lower quite a bit farther south in the Willamette Valley. For example, the odds of 0.05" in 24 hrs at KEUG is 24%, 0.10"/24 hrs is 16% and 0.25"/24 hrs is just 5%.

Beyond Thursday, models and their ensembles are in general agreement weak upper level shortwave troughing and low level onshore flow will persist across the region Friday into Saturday. This should allow temperatures to moderate and return closer to seasonal averages. Differences among models and their ensemble members then grows more towards next Sunday. The majority of the EPS members suggest the flow will turn more zonal Sunday, while more than half of the CMCE system suggests shortwave ridging will push towards the region. Meanwhile, nearly half of the GEFS members suggest another shortwave trough will slide across the Pacific Northwest Sunday. Given the range of possibilities, opted for a blend of model guidance and deviated little, if any, from NBM guidance. /Neuman

AVIATION. A very weak frontal boundary associated with an upper level trough centered over eastern Washington will continue to move east today. A mix of IFR and low-end MVFR exists along the coast, into the coastal valleys and up the Columbia River to near KKLS. Coastal areas likely to remain IFR to MVFR through the morning hours and then gradually improve to VFR by early afternoon. IFR to MVFR stratus returns to the coast between 03Z and 06Z Tue.

Areas of MVFR will persist over the southwest Washington lowlands west of Interstate 5 and some of the Oregon Coast Range valleys through late morning. Otherwise, VFR will be rule inland through at least 07Z Tue. Guidance suggests areas of MVFR stratus may push into the far western Oregon Coast Range valleys overnight, as well as the southwest Washington coastal lowlands.

KPDX and APPROACHES . VFR at the terminal and vicinity as of 16Z. Areas of SCT025-030 will dissipate by late morning. Latest high- resolution model cloud guidance indicates MVFR stratus developing along the Columbia River from near KSPB to KTTD around 13Z Tue. Weishaar

MARINE. No changes to current marine forecast. Surface high pressure builds over the waters later today and holds through Wednesday. This will bring gusty northerly wind during the afternoon and evening hours. The 12Z model guidance indicates 20-25 kt boundary layer wind speeds generally south of Cape Falcon late Tue afternoon through Tue evening. Will need to consider a small craft advisory, but will look at this in more detail for the afternoon forecast. A weak front looks to then move across the water Wednesday night into Thursday resulting in a brief period of southerly winds before high pressure brings the return of northerly winds later this week.

Seas are currently around 3-5 ft this morning and will remain in this range through Wednesday. Seas look to then build to around 5-7 ft by Thursday then to around 7-9 ft later this week as a building northwesterly swell moves across the waters. Weishaar/64

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 33 mi48 min 71°F1021.9 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 61 mi48 min 59°F1022.9 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 65 mi48 min WSW 4.1 G 6 65°F 71°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi73 minVar 310.00 miFair70°F57°F64%1021.8 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi73 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F57°F63%1021.9 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR10 mi73 minESE 310.00 miFair70°F57°F66%1021.6 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR12 mi73 minSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds69°F55°F63%1021.8 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR21 mi73 minWSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F55°F57%1021.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVUO

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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NW64NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S5
1 day agoN4NW7W7W84W5W4NW6N6CalmNW4N3NW3NW5NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4
2 days ago3S4CalmCalm4W5NW9
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N7NW7NW5N7N4NW3NW3CalmCalmNW3NW3NW5N3NW3CalmNW33

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Mon -- 02:48 AM PDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM PDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:59 AM PDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 03:29 PM PDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:31 PM PDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:34 PM PDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:34 PM PDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.80.50.40.71.11.61.81.71.41.110.80.4-0.1-0.4-0.4-00.511.21.21.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:46 AM PDT     8.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:59 AM PDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 09:25 AM PDT     -1.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:16 PM PDT     6.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:14 PM PDT     1.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:14 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.788.37.76.44.72.81.1-0.3-1.1-10.22.14.266.96.75.94.73.52.41.92.23.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.