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Marine Weather and Tides Lake Shore, WA Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:42AM

Sunset 4:28PM

Sunday December 15, 2019 1:29 PM PST (21:29 UTC)

Moonrise 8:19PM

Moonset 10:52AM

Illumination 83%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, WA

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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 151658 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . Update National Weather Service Portland OR 857 AM PST Sun Dec 15 2019

Updated Aviation and Marine sections.

SYNOPSIS. Fairly benign weather the next couple of days will likely give way to a multi-day stretch of notably wet and active weather mid to late week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday . Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning reveals a shortwave ridge offshore shifting eastward towards the Pacific Northwest. This has resulted in the atmosphere stabilizing overnight. Light winds and lingering moisture near the surface have allowed plenty of low clouds and some patchy fog to develop across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington early this morning. Given the weak pressure gradients expected across the area today, low clouds and fog should be slow to clear and many locations in the Willamette and lower Columbia River valleys appear unlikely to clear. As a result, have lowered high temperatures for inland valley locations a couple of degrees for today.

Models are in good agreement a warm front will shift eastward towards the region tonight. While operational models have come into better agreement that it will fall apart enough that the area will remain dry, there are enough ensemble members that bring at least some light rain to our western zones that have maintained slight chance to low chance PoPs for later tonight and early Monday. Shortwave ridging will then shift more squarely over the region late Monday into Monday night so expect more areas of fog and low clouds to develop. The main exception to this will be across the northern half of the Willamette Valley where increasing east winds near the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge will likely prevent widespread fog and low clouds from developing.

Models are in good agreement the next shortwave trough approaching the region will split and weaken, as most storms seemingly have the last several weeks, considerably as it hits the Pacific Northwest later Tuesday. As a result, have kept PoPs in the slight chance to chance categories for Tuesday into Tuesday night. With that said, this storm system will likely be the sacrificial lamb and open the door for strong zonal flow to spread across the region Wednesday. Models are in good agreement this will be in response to a broad shortwave trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more solid shot of rain Wednesday as a cold front pushes eastward across the area. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . Models and their ensembles are in general agreement a broad shortwave trough will move into the Gulf of Alaska midweek before digging southeastward towards the West Coast of the US next weekend. Concurrently, a shortwave ridge will build northward into the Rocky Mountain states. As this occurs, a strong zonal jet will take aim at the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into early Thursday. There have been a few model runs over the past couple of days that result in a surface low pressure developing and moving northeastward towards the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into early Thursday, but most model solutions keep the low pressure either very weak or nonexistent. Nonetheless, the pattern seems conducive for a surface low pressure to develop and move close enough to the region to at least bring a threat of high winds to the coast. Even though the latest operational model runs show few signs of this occurring this will be worth monitoring.

Meanwhile, models are in better agreement that at least a moderate strength atmospheric river will end up impacting the West Coast of the US Thursday into Friday night. Given the digging nature of the offshore trough, the atmospheric river could stall or at least waver back and forth between northern California, Oregon and Washington during this timeframe. While the operational GFS, and particularly the EC are somewhat ominous and would likely result in at least some flooding issues in our CWA late in the week, the GEFS and EPS suggest there is a lot of uncertainty in how long the steadier rain will reside over our CWA mid to late week . at least a lot more so than just looking at the operational GFS and EC. Will wait for more of a consensus among the models and their ensembles before issuing any products highlighting potential impacts.

It should be noted there may be some winter precipitation type issues in the Gorge when the initial warm front spreads into the region late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but given the marginally cold temperatures east of the Cascades currently, confidence in significant issues arising is low at this point. This pattern does seem conducive for heavier snow to fall across the higher terrain between Mt Hood and Mt Adams initially Wednesday night into early Thursday regardless. Nonetheless, temperatures should moderate enough late Thursday and Friday that snow levels will likely climb above the Cascade passes during any heavier bouts of precipitation late Thursday and Friday.

Expect precipitation to turn more showery and snow levels to lower below the Cascade passes next weekend as the main upper level trough spreads eastward over the area. Given the digging nature of the shortwave trough as it hits the West Coast of the US and the bulk of the energy appears likely to remain south of the region, low level westerly flow should not be terribly strong across our CWA. This will likely limit snow totals across our Cascades next weekend despite the colder temperatures and modest instability spreading across the area. /Neuman

AVIATION. IFR conditions have expanded across much of the forecast area this morning, with patchy LIFR in typical foggier spots such as KHIO and KEUG. VFR is more prevalent along the coast, though there are some patches of fog in the coastal valleys. Expect only slow improvement today, with most sites MVFR by 20z and VFR cigs by the end of the afternoon. Light offshore flow should develop along the coast tonight, allowing them to remain VFR. Meanwhile cigs will lower again through the night with MVFR and areas IFR developing overnight.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . IFR cigs have developed over the area, and are expected to persist through 19Z Sunday as the cigs slowly lift towards VFR this afternoon. Weagle/42

MARINE. Seas continue to be stubborn to lower as a westerly swell around 10 ft persists. Decided to issue a SCA for the seas for all but our northern inner waters today, though brief 10 ft seas cannot be ruled out there either. Seas may subside a foot or two this evening, but south to southeast winds will be increasing due to an approaching warm front. Therefore the SCA continues through Monday afternoon for the outer waters, where gusts 25 kt will be most frequent later tonight and Monday. High pressure is expected to strengthen over the inland Pac NW Monday, leading to increasing E-SE winds Monday and Tuesday. Some uncertainty lingers regarding an approaching frontal system for midweek, but there appears to be decent potential for at least localized Gale Force gusts and seas reaching well into the teens (in feet) sometime during the period of Wed-Fri. Weagle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA	33 mi	59 min			45°F		1024.4 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR	61 mi	65 min			49°F		1024 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR	65 mi	59 min	SSE 4.1 G 6	40°F	45°F		1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Pearson Airfield, WA	6 mi	36 min	SSW 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	44°F	37°F	76%	1024.7 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR	9 mi	36 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	43°F	37°F	80%	1025 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR	10 mi	36 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	42°F	37°F	82%	1024.7 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR	12 mi	36 min	NNW 3	7.00 mi	Overcast	39°F	37°F	93%	1024.8 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR	21 mi	36 min	N 0	9.00 mi	Overcast	43°F	37°F	80%	1024.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVUO

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Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)

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Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR

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