Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Scappoose, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 4:30PM Monday December 16, 2019 12:06 AM PST (08:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:34PMMoonset 11:32AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 250 Pm Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm pst this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am to 9 am pst Monday morning...
In the main channel.. - general seas...5 to 8 ft through Monday. - first ebb...strong ebb around 645 pm this evening. Seas 11 to 13 ft with breakers likely. - second ebb...around 730 am Monday. Seas near 10 ft. - third ebb...strong ebb around 730 pm Monday evening. Seas 11 to 13 ft with breakers likely.
PZZ200 250 Pm Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will persist over the pac nw through Monday, then shift east of the cascades Tuesday. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across mainly the outer waters tonight and Monday. Offshore flow will increase Monday night and Tuesday, turning more southerly midweek as a potent frontal system approaches the pac nw coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scappoose, OR
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location: 45.7, -122.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 160555 AAB AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 955 PM PST Sun Dec 15 2019

Updated aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. High pressure aloft will spread over the region early this week. A weak warm front may brush the far northwest part of the forecast area tonight through Monday morning. Offshore low-level flow develops late Monday and strengthens Monday night and Tuesday. A much more active and wetter pattern develops the latter half of the week.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday . Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicted an upper level ridge centered along 130W. A weak short-wave was also noted dropping southeast through southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. The latter feature is likely responsible for the persistent shower activity along the south Washington coast and into the Willapa Hills. At 21Z KLGX doppler radar showed a narrow reflectivity band over the Long Beach Peninsula. Elsewhere, considerable stratus covered much of the Willamette Valley and southwest Washington interior.

The upper ridge axis moves inside 130W tonight. Models have been consistent showing a warm frontal feature brushing southwest Washington and far northwest Oregon late tonight through Mon morning. High resolution 12Z models such as the NAM Nest and Hi-RES ARW show light precip over the south Washington coast overnight into Monday morning. The NAM and GFS depict weak isentropic lift along the 290K surface in this area. Meanwhile, weak surface gradients and considerable low-level moisture will be favorable for fog and low cloud development for the interior valleys tonight. By Mon afternoon the upper ridge axis migrates to the coastline. The remnant warm front will be shunted more north as the ridge amplifies and moves directly over the forecast area. Weak to non-existent surface gradients Mon morning will allow fog/stratus to persist in portions of the Willamette Valley into the afternoon. Air quality may start to become an issue Mon as the ridge moves over the area. The NAM shows offshore low-level flow developing through the Gorge late Mon. This gradient intensifies Mon night and Tue, peaking around -8 mb Tue morning. As is often the case, models are typically a little weak with this gradient and would not be surprised if the KTTD-KDLS gradient reached -10 mb. Should this verify, local guidance suggests peak wind gusts up to 80 mph would be possible in the most wind-prone areas at the west end of the Gorge. Wind-sheltered areas will drop below freezing Mon night.

A splitting system located around 135W Tue morning will creep toward the coast Tue afternoon through Wed. The offshore low-level flow is expected to begin gradually weakening Tue afternoon. Lowered POPS in the Tue afternoon through Tue night time frame due to the strength of the upper ridge, slow progress of the approaching frontal zone and continued offshore flow. The operational ECMWF appears to be slightly faster with the frontal boundary. It has some QPF reaching the coastline sometime between 06Z and 12Z Wed, while the GFS and NAM hold off on precip until at least Wed afternoon. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Thursday night through Monday . Models and their ensembles are in general agreement that a Gulf of Alaska low will gradually dip south to southeastward through the weekend sending shortwave disturbances across the Pacific Northwest. As the surface front swings across the area Wednesday night some models are showing a fast moving shortwave cross the CWA bringing strong southerly winds. Most model solutions keep the low pressure either very weak or nonexistent. Nonetheless, the pattern seems conducive for a surface low pressure to develop and move close enough to the region to at least bring a threat of high winds to the coast.

Models are converging on the solution that a moderate strength atmospheric river will end up impacting the West Coast of the US Thursday into Friday night. Given the digging nature of the offshore trough, the atmospheric river could stall or at least waver back and forth between northern California, Oregon and Washington during this timeframe. While the operational GFS, and particularly the EC are somewhat ominous and would likely result in at least some flooding issues in our CWA late in the week, the GEFS and EPS suggest there is a lot of uncertainty in how long the steadier rain will reside over our CWA mid to late week. Will wait for more of a consensus among the models and their ensembles before issuing any products highlighting potential impacts.

Expect precipitation to turn more showery and snow levels to lower below the Cascade passes over the weekend as the main upper level trough spreads eastward over the area. A shortwave trough looks to hit the West Coast of the US with the bulk of the energy staying to the south of our area , low level westerly flow should not be terribly strong across our CWA. This will likely limit snow totals across our Cascades this weekend despite the colder temperatures and modest instability spreading across the area. Phillips/Neuman

AVIATION. Generally VFR conditions throughout the forecast area with patchy fog beginning to form in the southern Willamette Valley and around KHIO. Much of the high cirrus will remain through the evening into Mon morning with a chance of lowering cigs between 10Z-14Z Mon. The insulating is expected to keep fog at bay throughout the remaining areas. Other than the areas previously mentioned, if fog does form it would be around 10Z-16Z Mon. Cigs may fall to high MVFR during in a similar time frame. A front ahead of low pressure in the Pacific will approach the coast Mon afternoon bringing showers to the north Oregon coast after 20Z. The frontal advancement will cause a pressure gradient increase causing winds to turn offshore slightly. High stratus will remain through the remainder of the period. Temperatures throughout the forecast area will remain near 40F with cooler temps possible through the southern Willamette Valley. There is a slight chance of frost on surfaces.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR cigs will continue through Mon with periods of MVFR levels between 10Z-14Z Mon. A large dew point depression will likely keep the terminal fog free, but patchy fog is possible after 10Z. Areas of frost are possible on surfaces but forecast temperatures above 35F should keep it limited. -Muessle

MARINE. Seas continue to be stubborn to lower as a westerly swell around 10 ft persists. Decided to issue a SCA for the seas for all but our northern inner waters today, though brief 10 ft seas cannot be ruled out there either. Seas may subside a foot or two this evening, but south to southeast winds will be increasing due to an approaching warm front. Therefore the SCA continues through Monday afternoon for the outer waters, where gusts 25 kt will be most frequent later tonight and Monday. High pressure is expected to strengthen over the inland Pac NW Monday, leading to increasing E-SE winds Monday and Tuesday. Some uncertainty lingers regarding an approaching frontal system for midweek, but there appears to be decent potential for at least localized Gale Force gusts and seas reaching well into the teens (in feet) sometime during the period of Wed-Fri. Weagle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM PST Monday for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 28 mi55 min 45°F1026.8 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 56 mi55 min 48°F1025.6 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 59 mi55 min S 4.1 G 7 41°F 45°F1025 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR5 mi74 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist35°F35°F100%1026.9 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR12 mi74 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist35°F34°F96%1026.8 hPa
Pearson Airfield, WA12 mi74 minVar 35.00 miFog/Mist37°F34°F89%1027 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR16 mi74 minSE 410.00 miOvercast38°F35°F89%1027.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSPB

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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmE4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS4SE3SE4SE3CalmCalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmN4CalmNW6W3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Mon -- 05:44 AM PST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:29 AM PST     1.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:30 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:07 PM PST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:22 PM PST     1.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:04 PM PST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:33 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:11 PM PST     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.40.30.2-0-0.10.20.71.21.61.61.41.111.110.90.80.91.31.821.9

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:14 AM PST     7.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:05 AM PST     2.93 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:35 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:11 PM PST     8.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:35 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:47 PM PST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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01.53.55.46.97.67.46.55.34.13.32.93.34.66.47.98.68.47.45.942.20.90

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.