Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manzanita, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:06PM Friday January 22, 2021 5:27 PM PST (01:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:25PMMoonset 2:22AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 224 Pm Pst Fri Jan 22 2021
Tonight..NE wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..W wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 8 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Combined seas 9 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves W 6 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 13 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the evening. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 15 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers.
Mon..W wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 16 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 14 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 12 ft.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 12 ft.
PZZ200 224 Pm Pst Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Northerly flow will persist through Friday, increasing in the afternoon. A cold front is set to push through Saturday night into Sunday bringing increasing winds and building seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manzanita, OR
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location: 45.7, -123.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 230119 CCA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 518 PM PST Fri Jan 22 2021

Corrected 3rd paragraph of short term.

SYNOPSIS. Seasonably cool air mass will remain over the region for the next several days. High pressure should keep the region mostly dry through Saturday with areas of freezing fog possible late tonight. A series of weak weather disturbances sliding down the coast will bring periods for precipitation beginning Sunday and continuing through much of next week. Meanwhile, snow levels will be low with best chances of accumulation Sunday and Tuesday through Wednesday, but odds appear against significant snow accumulations for the lowest of elevations.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday . Big picture for the next several days has remained consistent from this time yesterday among the major models. Low pressure to our south will continue moving away from the area tonight. The last of a weak deformation field bringing light flurries over the central Cascades will dissipate tonight. Skies continue to clear this afternoon and higher pressure east of the Cascades will funnel cooler and drier air between Mt Hood and Mt Adams toward the west. This cool and dry air will then be drawn southward and up the Willamette Valley this evening.

Once pressure equalizes across the Cascades, then expect winds to decrease and areas of fog to develop along the I-5 corridor. Dew points, except along the coast, are already hovering around and just below 32 degs F for the valley locations. This will allow temperatures to closely follow, thus believe there will be areas of freezing fog through much of Saturday morning. This cooler start to the day will result in Saturday's temps running about 5 degrees cooler than today despite clearing skies in the afternoon. Portions of the far south valley may not clear much at all and may struggle to get out of the 30s.

Saturday night through Sunday night will bring another trough and embedded closed low dropping south. This low originates in the Bering Sea and takes a trajectory along the immediate coastline. For the most part, southerly flow ahead of the front will keep the accumulating snow level at 1500 feet or so. However, a flat or very weak easterly pressure gradient will maintain lower snow levels around the Central Gorge zone and Upper Hood River Valley. Depending on exactly how cold it gets in the Columbia Basin, would not be surprised to see up to an inch of accumulating snow down to river level. Timing has shifted to an earlier arrival than yesterday's model runs with heaviest precipitation now slated to occur in the central Gorge/Upper HR Valley during the late morning through early afternoon. One of the many expected subtle changes has now brought a westerly wind and warmer temperatures with that heaviest precipitation. This will likely lift the snow level upward closer to 1000 feet in the afternoon.

Elsewhere Sunday, southerly pre-frontal flow will bring accumulating snow levels to around 1500 feet, or so, and higher during the bulk of the precip Sunday morning. It appears several inches of snow is possible for the higher elevations of the Coast Range/Willapa Hills plus the Cascades and adjoining foothills. If so, would likely end up needing snow advisories for several zones. Also, have a deeper rain/snow mix reaching down close to the Willamette/Columbia River elevations as diabatic cooling under embedded convection will briefly and locally drag snow accumulation to between 500 and 1000 feet.

Cool and somewhat moist northwesterly flow will trail the cold front for Sunday night and Monday. Continued weak instability and orographic lift will bring a rain/snow mix of showers possible to river level again through Monday. Do not expect any significant accumulations for the lowest elevations and, if nothing else, will make for good conversation and visual interest. /JBonk

LONG TERM. Monday night through Friday . Will continue to see details evolve in the extended forecast, however, the overall synoptic pattern has changes little from this time yesterday and last night's model runs. The low expands to a broad upper trough across the western CONUS by Tuesday morning with slightly cooler air filtering in with it. Continue to expect some periods where snow will mix in with rain showers Monday night, even at the lowest interior valley locations. Do not expect much, if any snow accumulations below 1000 feet at this time.

Given the minimal large scale model differences from yesterday, confidence in slowly increasing for Tuesday through Thursday. Another Bering Sea upper low drops southeast along the upper jet flow with those pesky model differences playing a significant role in how, what, if, or where snow will materialize across the region. there is broad agreement that Tuesday through Thursday will bring some form of offshore and cooler air reinforcing flow across the Cascades. Subtle timing changes now bring accumulating snow concern a little earlier to now beginning Tuesday afternoon. Would continue preferring see general 850mb and 925mb temperatures a little cooler to support snow down to Willamette/Columbia river elevations given incoming southerly flow aloft. But perhaps there will be residual snow cover across the Lower Columbia Basin on the east side of the Cascades to funnel much colder air through the Gorge gap.

Some global ensemble members have backed off on the low land snow threat while others have increased. Best course of action is to keep a close pulse on daily forecast changes to see if this event remains like previous ones to dash low land hope as next weeks gets closer, or if it remains as our best chance so far this season at accumulating snow close to sea level. /JBonk

AVIATION. Current satellite is showing clearing skies across much of the CWA. Light northerly winds will continue to bring a cooler airmass south into tonight. Patchy fog is likely across much of the low-lying areas after 06Z. Overnight lows are expected to drop below freezing so freezing fog after 12Z is likely. Quick return to VFR criteria after sunrise. Low level clouds around 2500 ft will begin to move onshore near KAST near the end of the TAF period ahead of an approaching front.

For detailed regional Pac NW weather information, go online to: http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR with weak easterly winds will continue for the next 24 hours. Chance of patchy fog after 06Z. VFR conditions to reestablish after 18Z Saturday. -BPhillips

MARINE. Winds are continuing to gust around 21 kt at buoy 050. These winds are expected to weaken by Saturday morning and the Small Craft Advisory will expire on schedule. A fast approaching cold front will ramp up winds Saturday night and by Sunday morning winds could reach low end Gale criteria. With the northwesterly wind wave coupled with a building northwesterly swell seas will ramp up into the mid to upper teens Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Winds and seas will slowly trend downward Monday. Model guidance beyond Tuesday is not in very good agreement and confidence is low on whether or not the sea state will ramp up again. -BPhillips

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for Columbia River Bar.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 10 mi57 min 1015.6 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi57 min N 4.1 G 7 47°F 45°F1016.3 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi61 min 47°F8 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 42 mi47 min N 14 G 18 47°F 47°F1017.3 hPa39°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 48 mi61 min 49°F10 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi52 minWNW 610.00 miFair48°F41°F76%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------CalmW3NW4W6W5W6W4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmSE4SE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4CalmW3
2 days ago----------------------------------------------Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Brighton
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:28 AM PST     3.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:22 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:08 AM PST     7.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:25 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:37 PM PST     1.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:08 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:07 PM PST     5.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.33.74.55.46.47.27.57.36.65.64.43.12.21.61.622.73.64.455.254.6

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Barview
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:30 AM PST     2.98 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:21 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:59 AM PST     7.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:25 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:39 PM PST     1.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:08 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM PST     4.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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333.44.25.26.26.97.26.96.25.24.12.921.51.51.92.63.54.34.84.94.74.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.