Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carson, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:19PM Friday August 14, 2020 6:14 AM PDT (13:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:19AMMoonset 4:20PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carson, WA
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location: 45.8, -121.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 141102 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 401 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. Temperatures start heating up across the Pacific Northwest today as an upper level ridge builds into the region from the Great Basin. Northerly flow will become breezy this afternoon and evening, further drying out the forecast area and elevating fire weather concerns. The sharp warming trend continues Saturday with high temperatures likely to reach 100 degrees for some inland valleys and potentially as high as 90 degrees for some coastal areas. Hot weather will continue into Sunday, then onshore flow will gradually increase for a slow cooling trend early next week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Sunday . Say goodbye to cool weather this morning, as we sharply transition into a very hot and dry weather pattern today and Saturday. The upper trough which had kept the region mild has moved east, already approaching the Dakotas. This is allowing a hot upper level ridge of high pressure to build into the region from the Great Basin. The air mass aloft will warm quickly today as a result, from around +12 deg C early this morning to +17 to +19 deg C by early afternoon per the 09z HRRR run. Additionally, thermal low pressure is strengthening along the coast near the OR/CA border, inducing more of a northerly component to the low-level flow.

The increasingly offshore flow will likely take full advantage of the warm air mass, mixing down dry adiabatically to the surface from 850-900 mb and allowing high temperatures to approach 90 degrees for our inland valleys this afternoon. The dry northerly flow will also result in very low RH possibly down into the teens Coast Range eastward this afternoon, while north winds gust 20-30 mph in the Willamette Valley and across the Coast Range ridges. The combination of very warm, dry, and breezy conditions are elevating fire concerns. As such, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the Fire Wx Zones 603/604 this afternoon and evening, which looks to be in good shape based on latest guidance.

Overall, we made very few changes to the high temperature forecast either Saturday or Sunday, as it looks to be in good shape and in line with latest guidance. The sharp warmup will continue into Saturday, aided by downsloping low-level northeasterly flow which will even heat up coastal areas. Strongly considered adding the North Coast to the Heat Advisory as a result, as places more than a mile or so from the beach could reach the 90s if offshore flow is persistent enough. However, after looking at latest high-res guidance such as the 1.33 km UW WRF and 4 km UW high-res ensemble, it appears offshore flow will not be strong enough to hold off a shallow sea breeze much longer than midday Saturday. Still would not be surprised to see KAST and KTMK reach 90 degrees, but this would only be for a couple hours - not really long enough for significant impacts. Coastal areas should cool off nicely Saturday night as a southerly wind reversal develops along the coast with gradually increasing stratus.

Any relief the coast sees Sat night won't extend very far inland, and inland areas will remain very warm and dry overnight. Hotter urban areas such as the Inner Eastside of Portland may only see low temperatures reach the lower 70s Sat night, offering little overnight relief for those without access to air conditioning. More rural valley locations could see a little more overnight relief due to more efficient radiational cooling, but this will only be enough to get them a few hours with temps in the 60s. Overall, the existing heat and fire wx headlines look good and will make no changes. Inland valleys will likely see back-to-back days with highs near 100 degrees and the above-mentioned very warm night in between. The heat will induce thermal low pressure to build north across western Oregon, leading to hot, dry, and unstable conditions each day which could pose control problems for any current or existing fires in the area. The instability may be enough to trigger a thunderstorm or two in the Cascades Sunday afternoon as moisture slightly increases in southerly flow aloft. Further fire wx information can be found below and in the Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWFPQR).

Interestingly, some potential for smoke from the Mosier fire to drift westward Sat and Sat night, affecting areas in the Hood River Valley, western Columbia Gorge, and parts of the eastern Portland metro area. But, this will depend on status of the fire by that timeframe. For now, will put areas of smoke in forecast. Weagle/Rocket

LONG TERM. No Changes Previous discussion follows. Sunday night through Thursday . Upper flow is southerly Sunday night into early Monday. Models still showing some weak instability drifting northward Sunday night, though best instability is east of the Cascades. But, even so, can not rule out a thunderstorm over the Cascades Sunday night. Will keep 20 pct PoPs for such in the forecast. But, air mass is quite dry, and would not be surprised if just end up just seeing some mid-level clouds with a few virga over the Cascades at that time.

Weak surface high will build along the coast Sunday night and Monday, giving some light onshore flow to the lower elevations. but, looks like this will be a rather shallow marine layer, with only a slight relief for inland areas on Monday. Will trend high temperatures back to the 60s and 70s along the coast, but lower 90s still a good bet farther inland. At least trend is starting, and will see slow cool down through rest of next week, with highs generally in the 80s inland, and 60s on the coast. /Rockey.

FIRE WEATHER. No changes Previous discussion follows. The breezy north to northeast winds in parts of the region, combined with low humidity, will join forces to boost potential of fire spread on Friday afternoon and evening. Highest potential will be in the Willamette Valley and nearby areas of the east slopes of the Coast Range from about McMinnville southward. Good bet will see winds gusting 20 to 30 mph along with afternoon humidity down to 18 to 25 percent in those areas. As such, will upgrade Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for those areas. Rest of the region will be dry and locally breezy, but think not as windy. Even so, finer fuels could carry a loose fire.

Though northerly winds ease Friday night, will maintain very warm and dry air mass for Saturday and Sunday. The elongated ORCA low, aka the thermal low of southwest Oregon, will sit over the Coast Range on Saturday and Saturday night, then slowly shift eastward on Sunday, before reestablishing itself east of the Cascades on Monday. Models continue to highlight enhanced instability with high haines air. So, have posted a Red Flag Warning for dry and unstable conditions over the Coast Range and Willapa Hills on Saturday, and essential I5 Corridor and Willamette Valley eastward for both Saturday and Sunday. Main concern with dry and unstable conditions is that with dry fuels, the air mass will be supportive for any existing or new fire to becoming plume dominated. /Rockey

AVIATION. VFR with clear skies through the next 24 hours. Models are showing some low level moisture early Sat morning along the north coast but with the air being very dry leading up to it, likely will not see any stratus developing. Northerly winds continue through Sat morning with gustier conditions Fri afternoon that dissipate after sunset.

KPDX and APPROACHES . No concerns. VFR with clear skies through Sat morning. Gusty north winds after 20Z Fri through around 03Z Sat. Could see northerly winds up to 30 kt aloft around 1000 ft AGL around 00Z Sat. -Muessle

MARINE. High pressure will remain over the waters through Sat, with thermally-induced lower pressure over the south Oregon coast. Winds have slowly begun to increase through the morning and should become 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by Fri afternoon. Strongest winds will be observed in the central waters out to 60 NM. Winds will likely remain elevated to small craft level winds through Sat afternoon. The central waters are expected to drop off first with the north Oregon/south Washington waters persisting into very early Sun morning. On Sun, a disturbance will move north from the east Pacific. This disturbance will cause winds to reverse and become southerly. This direction shift is expected to last through Tue morning when high pressure builds back in.

While the main swell will be 4 to 6 ft through much of the period, an increased wind wave component will likely cause seas to build slightly this afternoon. This pattern will repeat on Sat afternoon - mainly in the central waters. Seas will then ease to near 3 ft with a 10 second period on Mon where they will persist through the rest of the period. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Columbia River Gorge-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley-Upper Hood River Valley-Western Columbia River Gorge.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Central Oregon Cascade Foothills-Mt. Hood National Forest West of Cascade Crest-North Oregon Cascade Foothills- Willamette National Forest-Willamette Valley.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes of the Central Oregon Coast Range- Willamette Valley.

Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Cascades in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Lower Columbia- Northern Oregon Cascades.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for Central Oregon Coast-East Slopes of the Central Oregon Coast Range- North Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast Range.

WA . Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Central Columbia River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area- Western Columbia River Gorge.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Clark County Lowlands-Eastern Gifford Pinchot National Forest Mt Adams Ranger District-Extreme South Washington Cascades and Foothills.

Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Cascades.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for East Willapa Hills-South Washington Coast and West Willapa Hills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM PDT Saturday for Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon PDT Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 59 mi146 min 70°F1022.5 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KCZK

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
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2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Fri -- 01:22 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:20 AM PDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:15 PM PDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:31 PM PDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:22 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:05 PM PDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:31 PM PDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.41.61.61.30.90.70.70.60.50.2-000.40.8110.90.80.9110.8

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:23 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:47 AM PDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:46 AM PDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 PM PDT     2.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:42 PM PDT     7.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.74.53.121.10.50.30.81.83.14.35.25.454.33.632.72.93.85.16.37.17.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.