Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carson, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:11PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 7:33 PM PDT (02:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:44PMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carson, WA
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location: 45.8, -121.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 202220
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national service portland or
320 pm pdt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis A fall like storm system will bring widespread, and
locally heavy, Wednesday. Westerly flow and mild conditions return
heading into the weekend. A weak system brushes by on Saturday with
light rains possible across the north. Offshore high pressure begins
building early next week bringing a gradual warming trend.

Short term Tonight through Friday... Mature low pressure center
located near 45n 145w is at the heart of a slowly deepening offshore
trough. The trough has tapped into a notably moist tropically
sourced moisture plume with pw values as high as 2.50". That
moisture is getting entrained into the frontal structure with the
cold front pegged to cross the forecast area during daylight hours
Wednesday. Fortunately, the highest pw will not make it to the
frontal zone by tomorrow morning, however, there will still be 1.80"-
2.00" moisture plumes phasing into the front by late tonight and
early Wednesday.

The 12z hi-resolution convective allowing models (cams) have a rough
consensus that the precip evolution will largely be focused on a 2-3
hour window where precip rates will be enhanced by some embedded
convection. However, the global and mesoscale models are not hinting
at much instability associated with the front. Suspect there is just
enough conditional instability to warrant the pinpoint pockets of
45+ dbz modeled composite reflectivity. Model soundings do indicate
a few hour period near the frontal passage where the odd thunder
clap may occur. Did add in a slight chance mention in a narrow
ribbon across the area from west to east as the front passes by
during the late morning through early evening.

The pinpointed QPF maxes mean a wider range of potential QPF values
brings considerable uncertainty to which locations will see the
higher end of the potential rain closer to three-quarters of an inch
and to those which will see the lower end around several hundredths
to a quarter-inch. If nothing else, the cams agree that everywhere
in the CWA will likely see measurable rain. Unfortunately, the
central cascades and lane county foothills are a little less
certain, but still have an above average shot at picking up at least
some measurable rain, albeit more likely limited in nature.

Showers will taper off from late Wednesday evening with the last
vestiges hanging on longest over the cascades Thursday morning.

Westerly flow then takes over heading in to the weekend with
temperatures starting to warm about 5-8 degrees after tomorrow
roughly 15 degree drop. Jbonk

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... A shortwave will slide
north of the region and appears to have enough moisture in the flow
to bring some light rains across the far north. Amounts may struggle
to reach a tenth, if anything. Did increase pops some but have
leaned on an overall model blend for their output.

Longwave ridging tries to build over the west coast Sunday but will
have an easier time Monday and Tuesday as the upper trough drifts
away to the east. Temperatures will gradually warm toward the mid
and upper 80s as an initial projection but there is still some
uncertainly as the driving thermal trough may remain closer to the
cascades which would lend toward the slight cooling effects from
onshore flow during the afternoons. Jbonk

Aviation Vfr conditions expected to continue to prevail
through 08z for most locations. Satellite images continue to
show a complex cloud system slowly pushing onshore. Some low
vfr high MVFR clouds can be seen via satellite as well as surface
based obs along the coast. Expect a lowering of CIGS toward MVFR
levels through this evening along the coast. Have tried to
provide reasonable timing of these CIGS but have low mid
confidence in the timing.

Inland locations are expected to have a gradual lowering of cigs
to lowVFR through this evening and into Wednesday morning.

Confidence remains the same as to the timing of precipitation.

Coastal precipitation starts around 08z to 11z Wednesday. Inland
locations start around 16z to 19z Wednesday. Precipitation will
start sooner at northern locations then slowly propagate south.

Expect CIGS to lower as well as vis in heavier rain to MVFR as
the day progresses on Wednesday. Some isolated thunderstorms
could be present after around 12z Wednesday.

Kpdx and approaches... PredominatelyVFR expected tonight.

Increasing clouds late tonight early Wednesday with lowVFR
clouds around 3500 to 4000 feet developing. Precipitation
starting tomorrow around 15z to 17z Wednesday, along with a
slight chance of thunderstorms near the terminal starting around
22z Wednesday. 42

Marine Seas remain in the 4 to 6 ft range, mainly from a nw
swell. That will change today as an unseasonable front
approaches the waters through tonight, then moves through the
waters Wednesday. Small craft winds are being seen at bouy 46089.

Expect these winds to progress further into the outer waters
through the evening, then progress to the inner waters by
Wednesday afternoon. The strongest winds are still expected from
tonight through Wednesday with gusts of 30 kt in our outer
waters with the potential for some isolated gusts higher than 30
kt.

Seas will generally start to build towards 6 to 8 feet with the
potential for some steep square seas too. Wind wave and swell
associated with this system could push seas towards 10 feet
Wednesday and possibly Thursday. The area that would have the
best chance of having 10 foot seas is our northern waters due to
larger swells and potentially stronger wind. 42

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Wednesday for waters from
cape shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 5 pm pdt
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 59 mi51 min 71°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KCZK

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
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SW6W6----SW65SW5
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1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Tue -- 06:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:53 AM PDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:03 AM PDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:14 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:38 PM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:31 PM PDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 PM PDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:30 PM PDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.10.80.70.70.60.40.30.50.91.31.51.410.60.50.40.40.30.30.40.81.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
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Tue -- 05:18 AM PDT     6.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:59 AM PDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM PDT     7.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:49 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.62.94.65.96.66.55.74.431.70.80.512.34.25.977.26.75.64.22.81.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.