Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carson, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:27PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:31 PM PST (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 2:46PMMoonset 3:38AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carson, WA
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location: 45.8, -121.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 081640 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 835 AM PST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cloudy with areas of fog today. This weeks weather resembles a dishwasher, with alternating wet and dry cycles. Dry on Mon, then a front brings precipitation across region on Tue. Brief break Tue night into Wed, then another front will bring more rain and mountains snow to the region later Wed and Thu. The unsettled weather continuing into next weekend.

SHORT TERM. Today through Tuesday . Quick update this morning to add in a mention of drizzle in the forecast. Doppler radar and surface observations indicate areas of drizzle shifting south to southeastward across the area this morning. The NAM does suggest some weak isentropic lift along the 285K surface is likely helping to drive the current drizzle falling across portions of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. It weakens this isentropic lift quickly around midday, but does also have some additional omega developing within the moist layer (generally below 850mb) late this afternoon and this evening so cannot completely rule out some drizzle even during that timeframe. Will monitor trends and additional model data before expanding the mention of drizzle beyond 21Z today. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast package looks on track this morning.

See previous discussion below .

Decent rainfall across the region in past 36 hours. The low that was responsible for this rainfall is now over the Great Basin. Now, have drier northerly flow over the region, with most of the mid and higher clouds shifting east of the Cascades. Will keep minor chance of showers over the Cascades, mainly south of Mount Jefferson, as still some minor lifting over that region.

But, the lower atmosphere, say below 5000 ft, remains rather moist. With the stable air mass in place, this has led to widespread stratus and areas of fog. Will see the fog gradually thin, but with lack of much low level flow, will take until early to mid afternoon before see much in way of clouds breaking apart. But, with 2 am temperatures in the mid 40s, seems reasonable will see afternoon highs easily get into the lower 50s with any sunshine.

Generally dry weather tonight through Mon night as upper high pres ridge offshore shifts to the Pac NW. Will see areas of fog reform tonight, and again Mon night. Temperatures back down into the 30s, so will also have spots of frost each night, especially inland. Offshore will gradually increase later Mon and Mon night, but appears this only will help areas to fog free in and around the Columbia River Gorge.

Next system will approach the region on Tue. With the main low well north of Vancouver Island, and another off the north Calif coast. This will continue the stretching of the front as it approaches the Pac NW. So, the front will continue weakening as it arrives, with spotty rain or showers for our areas on Tue. /Rockey

LONG TERM. Tuesday night through Saturday . Another active pattern is in store as another broad low advances towards the area from the Gulf of Alaska later next week. Before that low reaches the area, a shortwave trough and associated front will move over northwest Oregon/southwest Washington Tue night. The front will cause a southerly wind shift which will bring warmer air up from the south keeping temperatures in the 40s to 50s with overcast skies. Precipitation, mainly as rain, will fall Wed afternoon into the evening with increased chances along the coast. Thur will be the brief lull between this frontal passage and the onset of the broad low. At this time, there is a lack of model consistency in the low position and intensity. While all models are depicting a fairly energetic system, models have struggled to create a well defined low center and there is a wide output spread between models and their different runs;thus after Thur, there is less confidence. /Muessle

AVIATION. Weak flow, stable conditions and plenty of low level moisture will lead to mainly LIFR, IFR and MVFR flight conditions across all of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington through 18z Monday. There may be some improvement towards VFR conditions in spots towards 21z Sunday to 00z Monday, particularly across the higher terrain. However, any valley locations locations that clear during this timeframe will fog in very quickly this evening and/or overnight and likely experience LIFR and IFR conditions through 18z Monday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . IFR conditions this morning should gradually trend towards MVFR conditions. There may be even be a period of VFR conditions, but confidence is low in this scenario. Expect a return to LIFR and IFR conditions after 00z Monday where conditions should more or less remain through 18z Monday. /Neuman

MARINE. A weak high pressure ridge will build over the waters today then shift east Mon. A series of weakening fronts will affect the waters Tue through Thu, but be strong enough to bring Small Craft Advisory winds and seas. High pressure tries to regain control over the waters late in the week but some models still show weak fronts approaching the waters.

Seas hovering around 6 ft through Mon but increase with the Tue front. A large low, stemming from the Gulf of Alaska, could bring seas up to 16 ft or so with periods around 18 seconds later Wed and Thu. /mh

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . None.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 59 mi50 min 46°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KCZK

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
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1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Sun -- 03:40 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:55 AM PST     1.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:57 AM PST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:25 AM PST     1.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:49 AM PST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:09 PM PST     1.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.91.21.31.211110.80.60.50.71.21.61.81.71.51.21.110.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:45 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:10 AM PST     2.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:55 AM PST     8.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:51 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:17 PM PST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:52 PM PST     6.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.25.44.33.32.52.12.43.65.26.888.586.95.43.92.41.30.812.13.65.26.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.