Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carson, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:14PM Sunday September 19, 2021 6:27 AM PDT (13:27 UTC) Moonrise 6:11PMMoonset 4:07AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carson, WA
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location: 45.8, -121.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 191109 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 409 AM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Cool and showery weather will continue for one more day today before warmer and drier conditions move in for the coming week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As per satellite imagery, the upper trough axis from this weekend's wet system affecting the Pacific Northwest is finally now pushing onshore. One last push of widespread moderate rain is moving east into northwestern OR and southwestern WA, and should be through in the next few hours. Southwestern WA will likely continue to see the heavier rain amounts in the WSW flow at lower levels as well as bring closer to the upper low. After this, should still see much less shower coverage, however will continue to see at least as we're still in post- frontal unstable airmass. Viewing model soundings however, warmer air will begin pushing into the area aloft today, which will limit the potential for thunder. CAPE values will be lower today, barely 300 J/kg. Have decreased the chances to just a slight chance and have taken out the mention over the southern half of the region. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, in the mid 60s across the Willamette Valley, and in the low 50s to low 60s in the high terrain and along the coast.

Showers will be decreasing by early evening and diminished by midnight, except perhaps over the far northern OR Cascades and southern WA Cascades. Skies clearing may allow for some radiational fog with all the recent moisture on the ground. Temperatures will cool off, with readings in the low 40s to low 50s across the area.

An upper ridge will quickly build in tomorrow and into Tuesday, with a surface thermal trough establishing over the coast in northern CA and stretching up a bit in southern OR. This will create an offshore pattern which will warm the airmass further. Temperatures will warm into the low 70s in the inland locations tomorrow, and then near 80s for Tuesday. An shortwave trough will move close to shore by Tuesday night to increase winds aloft and keep a warm night in the forecast. /Kriederman

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Models continue to be in general agreement on the shortwave trough moving towards the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will drag a weakening front into the region, but confidence remains low that it will hold together enough to even bring a round of light rain to our northern coastal zones. Otherwise, models and their ensembles are in general agreement a shortwave ridge will build back over the Pacific Northwest late in the work week. This should bring another multi-day stretch of dry weather and mild temperatures to end the work week and to begin next weekend. /Neuman/Kriederman

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Stratiform rain, heavy at times, continues over much of the area, with visibilities at all terminals bouncing from predominant low VFR/high MVFR to low MVFR/high IFR during periods of heavier rain. Throughout the morning, the stratiform pattern should transition to a more showery one, with a slight chance of thunder by afternoon. The showers should be generally less numerous than yesterday, and the trend will be for fewer of them as the day wears on. However, given the instability the more abundant sunshine and cold temperatures aloft will bring, any of these isolated showers/thunderstorms could produce briefly gusty surface winds to 30 knots and small (i.e., half inch or less in diameter) hail. Thus, while VFR to high MVFR conditions should be predominant this afternoon, IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings will be possible for stints during showers. During the last 9 or so hours of the TAF period (i.e., from 3Z to 12Z), the showers are expected to gradually phase out of existence, though some MVFR stratus/stratocumulus may stick around. The HREF only suggests around a 20-40% chance for this stratus, so while its development is possible, uncertainty has precluded its addition to this TAF package.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Conditions have been a mix of predominant low VFR/high MVFR overnight, with dropping visibilities in heavy rain showers the culprit for occasional dips into low MVFR/high IFR conditions. This trend will continue throughout much of the remainder of the morning, though the stratiform precipitation will transition back to a showery pattern by around noon local time. Showers - some heavy with small (i.e., sub half-inch diameter) hail, gusty winds to 25 knots, and a few rumbles of thunder - will gradually decrease in areal coverage throughout the remainder of the day, with this activity expected to end by 6Z Monday. Within these showers, visibilities again may drop into the IFR category and ceilings may drop into the MVFR category, but predominant conditions after the end of this morning's stratiform rain should be IFR/low MVFR. -Bumgardner

MARINE. Between a low pressure system in western British Columbia and a high centered around 40N, 140W, southwesterly winds will continue over the waters today. Though these winds are expected to remain well below Small Craft criteria, a trailing westerly swell will ensure that seas remain relatively steep and choppy with wave heights around 8 to 11 feet and periods of 10 to 12 seconds. For this reason a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday morning.

While seas will subside to around 6 to 8 feet Monday through Friday, winds could be gusty at times - especially in the waters off the central coast of Oregon, where marginal Small Craft gusts just over 20 knots could be achieved Monday evening. The Small Craft currently set to expire Monday morning may ultimately need to be extended to cover this potential, though confidence in wind gusts over 20 knots is still too low to extend the product at this time.

Another round of gusty winds will be possible Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. During this time period, 20 to 25 knot gusts are looking increasingly likely for the central waters, but given uncertainty we'll hold off on a Small Craft for now. -Bumgardner

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ250-255-270- 275.




Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 59 mi57 min 66°F1012.8 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KCZK

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
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1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Sun -- 01:47 AM PDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:10 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:12 AM PDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:19 PM PDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:13 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:24 PM PDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.30.20.50.91.41.61.51.31.210.80.5-0-0.3-0.20.20.71.21.31.31.31.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
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Sun -- 01:00 AM PDT     7.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:17 AM PDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:02 PM PDT     7.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:18 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:25 PM PDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.27.87.46.34.731.3-0-0.7-0.50.92.95.16.87.57.164.631.70.91.12.34.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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