Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carson, WA

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:06PM Sunday March 7, 2021 12:31 PM PST (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:25AMMoonset 11:52AM Illumination 33% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carson, WA
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location: 45.8, -121.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 071652 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 852 AM PST Sun Mar 7 2021

. Updated aviation and marine discussions .

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure dropping south offshore will keep a threat of showers over the region through the early part of the week. A cold front moving east will bring a few hours of stratiform rain with mountain snow early this morning. Upper level high pressure is expected to bring drier weather for Wednesday through early Friday, and possibly through the weekend.

SHORT TERM. Today through Tuesday Night . Not much has changed in the large scale of the pattern over the last 48-72 hours. A longwave trough has settled over the NW Pacific with an embedded closed low centered a few hundred miles off the northern tip of Vancouver Island. The low is sending a cold front across the PacNW at this hour which is roughly aligned with I-5. Have received a brief period with gusts 25-30 mph across the board, including the coast. Precipitation amounts are hardly noteworthy as well. Generally 0.20- 0.30" over the last 6 hours along the coast where most of the rain has fallen behind the front. Expect a similar story to play out as the front continues moving east this morning. The Cascades may pick up a couple inches of new snow or so ending around 9 AM or so.

Behind the front, satellite and radar show plenty of shower potential to come onshore given an approaching cooler air mass. The upper low track is still slated to drop south over the next few days with the low center staying beyond 130W until Tuesday morning. That will place the CWA under varying amounts of diffluent flow aloft atop unstable lower levels until then. Today will also see the addition of the jet stream aloft to provide a little extra lift such that thunderstorms seem plausible, especially for portions of the region north of a McMinnville to Portland Metro area line. WOuld really like to see a couple hours of decent solar heating to hit the ground to really trigger the deeper convection required for thunderstorms today and that may be a little hard to sustain given the overall unstable environment from the advancing trough plus ample low level moisture. Still have minimal concern for funnel cloud development, especially along the lower Columbia where terrain forced SE surface winds will provide a little more rotational potential against the SW winds aloft. Elsewhere, there will still be potential to see some stronger showers, possibly embedded with small hail. In both cases, the stronger convection will ease close to sunset around 6 PM this evening leaving residual showers to continue this evening before they pull west toward the coast overnight.

Monday, a shortwave rounding the base of the trough will provide additional instability to our area. Expect showers will develop with daytime heating as the trigger. Meanwhile, the best instability will then have moved into SW Oregon to keep the thunderstorm threat to our south. Showers should again decrease in coverage near sunset. Tuesday, will effectively be a near repeat of Monday, but now with the upper low center coming inside of 130W putting us under less diffluent flow aloft but offset by being closer to the cold core aloft.

Snow levels through this period remain relatively low. Some snow may be mixed down to around 1000 feet or so under heavier showers, but should not accumulate for very long, if at all. The primary accumulation potential will stay closer to 2000 feet and above. Each day could locally bring a couple of inches of snow to the Cascades and higher Coast Range but do not see widespread impacts. /JBonk

LONG TERM. Wednesday through Saturday . Still have very good model agreement through early Friday showing the region remaining mild and dry as an upper ridge noses east and north of the upper low departing to our south. Near normal temperatures will likely prevail.

Friday, there is general model agreement that another long wave trough will drop south from Alaska. There is notable disagreement, however, about how far south and east this trough will spread. About 2/3rds of possible model and ensemble solutions push the energy well south and west of the PacNW to form a cut off low well west of Northern California. This solution would keep the PacNW dry through the weekend. The other plausible solution shown by many of the remaining model outputs, retain most of the energy within the parent trough and begin bringing it across the PacNW with rain arriving at the coast Friday afternoon. Will maintain PoPs in the forecast given the non-trivial number of scenarios that bear this out in some form. /JBonk

AVIATION. In the post frontal environment, radar is showing the developing showers over most of the area. Most locations will at lease see rain showers inland and snow showers over the Cascades, but some pea sized hail is also being reported. Mainly VFR flight conditions should prevail through the evening, aside from brief periods of MVFR cigs possible with passing showers. Showers will increase in coverage into the afternoon, with a slight chance of weak thunderstorms. Any shower or storm that does develop this afternoon will have the potential to produce reduced visibilities, small hail, and wind gusts between 20-30 kt.

Weak high pressure moves late tonight after 05Z Monday, bringing nearly calm winds and clearing skies. This will bring the potential for some patchy fog after 10Z Monday - especially for the interior lowlands.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mainly VFR through through this evening aside from brief periods of MVFR cigs with passing showers or thunderstorms. Any shower or storm this afternoon will have the potential to bring small hail, brief gusty winds between 20-30 kt, and lowered visibilities. Confidence regarding timing of thunderstorm activity is low so did not include in TAFs, however the most prone time will be between 20Z Sunday through 04Z Monday. There is also the potential for fog to develop at the terminal after 10Z Monday. -Muessle/TK

MARINE. Westerly swell be on the rise today, with model guidance still suggesting a peak around 18 ft this evening and dominant wave periods increasing to 14 to 16 seconds. This falls just shy of meeting the thresholds for a High Surf Advisory. Admittedly, there is a small chance that seas could end up closer to 19-20 ft, which would just barely meet high surf criteria. Since the most likely outcome is seas closer to 17-18 ft, will not be issuing a High Surf Advisory for this event. Regardless of the outcome, there will be a high threat for sneaker waves along the coastline. Will note that there is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening over the northern waters. Small hail and erratic gusty winds are possible with any forming showers or storms.

Expect seas to decrease on Monday, falling to 10-13 ft by Monday evening. Southerly winds increase a bit Monday night, possibly gusting between 30-35 kt over the central waters and 25-30 kt over the northern waters. Winds should begin to ease again on Tuesday and eventually turn offshore Tuesday night. Rather benign conditions expected over the coastal waters Wednesday through Friday as high pressure settles in and brings dry weather, lighter winds, and calmer seas. In fact, the current forecast during that time has winds and seas that are below small craft criteria. -Muessle/TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Monday for Columbia River Bar.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 59 mi43 min 44°F1021 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KCZK

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Sun -- 01:41 AM PST     1.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:27 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:16 AM PST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM PST     1.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:22 AM PST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:56 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:28 PM PST     1.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:06 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:21 PM PST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.11.110.911.11.10.90.80.81.11.51.81.81.51.210.90.80.60.2-0.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
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Sun -- 02:22 AM PST     2.99 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:33 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:59 AM PST     8.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:57 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:09 PM PST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:09 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:13 PM PST     6.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.433.145.36.77.787.76.95.64.22.81.60.70.30.61.52.94.35.66.26

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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