Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Park City, MT

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 4:31PM Sunday December 8, 2019 2:20 PM MST (21:20 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 3:44AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Park City, MT
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location: 45.83, -109     debug


Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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FXUS65 KBYZ 081704 AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1004 AM MST Sun Dec 8 2019

UPDATE.

Cold front moving through the area this morning, located from near Ekalaka to Hardin to Billings and northwest to Ryegate and into the Crazy mountains. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the upper 30s to lower 40s in most locations, with a few river valleys across SE MT in the 20s. Behind the front temperatures fall quickly into the upper 20s, and even a 19 degree reading now in Judith Gap. Radar has been showing a lot of returns all morning but most of this isn't reaching the ground due to dry air in the lower levels ahead of the front. Behind the front we see fog developing in most locations, and rain/freezing rain building in behind that. Have reports of snow in the Bull Mountains, rain in Forsyth, and Freezing Rain now from east of Forsyth through Miles City and Freezing Fog with intermittent light Freezing Rain in Baker. Miles City ASOS showing 0.02 inches of ice accumulation so far. Snow is pushing south though with Glendive and Lewistown showing all snow.

So, will see a period of mixed precipitation for an hour or two behind the front, along with areas of locally dense fog, before precipitation turns to all snow in areas covered by the Winter Weather Advisory. Snow accumulations all along with this system have looked light and that continues with the latest model runs showing half an inch to two inches for the most part across our area, heaviest over Fallon county and in the southern foothills zones. Main concern will be Freezing Rain through mid day, then flash freezing of any residually wet roadways across the area creating travel problems. Overall forecast is on track. Made adjustments to weather and precipitation chances to track latest observations and model guidance. No changes to the going Winter Weather Advisory outside of added mention of locally dense fog. Chambers

DISCUSSION.

Today through Monday Night .

No changes to winter weather highlights for this package.

Latest model runs continue to trend snowfall amounts down just a little. This appears to be more a result of warmer temperatures early on in the event (delayed frontal passage) than anything else. The threat of freezing precipitation appears to be of a short lived duration at any particular location in the eastern plains. The Miles City vicinity is still the area with the best chance of any freezing precipitation today, albeit still slight. The only adjustment we made with regard to freezing precipitation was to include a slight chance from Hardin to Sheridan in the afternoon before it changes over to all snow late. Overall though, models still show mainly rain/snow or a mix in the morning, turning to all snow during the afternoon hours as much colder air surges south into the area. Look for temperatures in the 30s early today, but dropping through the day once the frontal passage occurs.

Snow accumulations with this quick moving system should be around an inch or two, a bit more in the Red Lodge, Pryor Mountain foothills, and Sheridan foothills.

Snow falling during the day will melt in many areas keeping roads mainly slushy or wet during the daylight hours. With the cold air arriving for the afternoon expect a sudden freeze on wet roadways as the sun sets.

Disturbance clears the area quickly Sunday evening with precipitation dissipating before midnight. Downslope northwest flow will get temperatures into the mid and upper 30s Monday, but a backdoor push of cold air moves in from the northeast late in the day. This will bring an increasing chance for light snow to our central and eastern zones through Monday night and into Tuesday. BT

Tuesday through Saturday .

Weak disturbances will move through each day through the end of the forecast period.

Tuesday will bring a shortwave through the area allowing for light snow showers, mainly east of Billings. This disturbance will move to the southeast and out of the area by late morning leaving dry conditions Tuesday afternoon. Another weak disturbance will move southeast Wednesday with another chance of light snow east of Billings. Light snow is also possible over the Beartooth Mountains. After Wednesdays disturbance moves through, upper westerly flow will dominate through the end of the week. Light snow showers are possible Thursday through Saturday as weak energy move over southeastern Montana.

Winds will be a concern for much of this period but timing of the strongest winds is uncertain due to variances in ensembles. Winds have been kept well below sub advisory criteria at this time but will update as we move closer as some periods do hint to at least sub-advisory.

High temps will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day, with 20s possible Tuesday along the ND border. Temps will cool slightly moving into next weekend. Carrothers

AVIATION.

A cold front will move southward late this morning into the afternoon and bring a wind shift to northerlies and a period of MVFR to LIFR conditions in snow. Freezing rain is possible east of Billings. Conditions will improve to VFR tonight from northwest to southeast. Mountains will be obscured through tonight. RMS

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS.

Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 036 015/037 020/038 024/041 025/044 031/045 027/038 9/S 31/E 21/E 01/B 01/B 23/W 33/W LVM 042 018/036 021/040 024/041 025/042 030/042 025/036 6/O 30/B 00/N 11/N 13/W 44/W 45/J HDN 034 011/037 018/037 018/040 020/043 026/045 023/039 8/S 31/E 41/E 12/J 01/B 33/W 32/W MLS 029 010/030 009/028 013/036 019/042 028/043 023/036 +/S 22/S 31/E 11/E 01/B 23/W 22/J 4BQ 036 010/031 013/032 016/036 020/041 026/042 023/036 9/O 32/S 41/E 10/E 00/B 22/W 22/J BHK 028 005/026 000/022 006/028 016/038 026/039 020/031 9/S 53/S 20/B 01/E 00/B 12/W 22/J SHR 038 011/034 017/037 018/041 019/044 024/043 020/037 9/O 71/B 41/B 01/B 01/B 23/W 33/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MT . Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 8 PM MST this evening FOR ZONES 29-30-34-36-37-42-56>58-138-169-170-173-228-235. Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR ZONES 31>33-63. WY . Winter Weather Advisory in effect until midnight MST tonight FOR ZONE 199.

weather.gov/billings


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Billings, Billings Logan International Airport, MT25 mi28 minNE 131.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist22°F19°F89%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIL

Wind History from BIL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6SW12W10W6NE3E4SW7SW8SW10SW10W16SW10SW12W15SW9W7Calm3NE4N7NE9N18
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1 day agoW16
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2 days agoNE6NE3E3CalmCalmCalmS3SW6SW6SW6SW11SW16SW16SW13SW19SW18W19W20
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Billings, MT (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Billings, MT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.