Saturday, December7, 2019
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinac Island, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 4:52PM Saturday December 7, 2019 1:51 AM EST (06:51 UTC) Moonrise 2:51PMMoonset 2:59AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1009 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Saturday...
Overnight..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Scattered snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers and slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201912071115;;968717 FZUS53 KAPX 070309 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1009 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-071115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinac Island, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.86, -84.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 070346 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1046 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 930 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Lake effect snow showers continue to gradually diminish in coverage and intensity. Not much more than flurries left in northern lower MI; activity poking into eastern upper MI is a smidge healthier. High pressure in se Iowa will progress east, passing to our south in the morning. 1000-850mb winds are already starting to back, and the Superior connection into northern lower MI has already been severed. A wsw fetch will be in place by morning. That is at least a longer fetch on Lake MI; though Superior activity will cease, there is an opportunity for an uptick off of Lake MI. This will be especially the case very late (toward morning), when a shortwave arrives and interacts with developing warm advection. We already see some virga/very light snow well upstream over ne MN/far nw WI, and this should continue to slide ese-ward toward northern Lake MI overnight.

There have been enough breaks in the lake-induced cloud cover to lower temps into the teens in some spots (CAD/GLR). Current min temp forecast appears suitably chilly, and no major changes were made.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 321 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

. Diminishing lake effect tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon surface analysis reveals lake aggregate troughing across southeast Lake Superior down into Georgian Bay with northwesterly flow still intact down through Lower Michigan. NW flow lake effect snow showers persist. Overall light, but there are still a few heavier lake bands off Superior into parts of Chippewa county as well as down into parts of northern Lower Michigan, the most persistent and heavier of which crosses down through Antrim and Kalkaska counties.

Upstream, elongated axis of surface high pressure extends from the far western Great Lakes down through west Texas and is steadily building eastward into the region. This is another weak wave and area of warm advection/enhanced cloud tops sliding out of south-central Canada into the Upper Midwest that will move through northern Michigan later tonight into Saturday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal overall. Lake effect trends.

Diminishing lake effect snow showers are still anticipated as we head through the evening as surface high pressure, weakening and backing low level flow take their toll. But a few locations could yet see some light accumulations this evening. Then, aforementioned upstream weak wave and area of warm advection forcing will track through northern Michigan overnight into Saturday morning. This system does not pack nearly the punch that last nights system did. In fact, I can't find any upstream station reporting precip at this juncture. But, increasing cloud cover/moisture aloft and uptick in inversion heights should bring renewed lake effect snow showers into parts of the area. Specifically, areas along the Lake Michigan shoreline and up through the Straits into parts of eastern Upper Michigan as low level mean flow swings southwesterly. Those areas might see an inch, maybe two, tonight and Saturday combined snow accumulations.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 321 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

An upper-level trough to the east will exit off of the New England coast as another trough amplifies in central Canada. This will help deepen a cyclone formed in lee of the Canadian Rockies into the Hudson Bay area, swinging an associated cold front down across the US/Canada border in the northern Great Plains late Sunday. As surface high pressure departs to the east of the Great Lakes through the weekend, enhanced southerly flow along the back end could bring above freezing temps to the area out ahead of the cold front.

Relatively warm lake temps combined with low to mid-level warm air advection could produce some more light snow across far northwest lower/tip of the mitten/eastern upper MI into the evening Saturday amidst a short window of supportive moisture in the region. A chance for more light snow exists early Sunday morning across eastern upper, but accumulations for both of these rounds are expected to be near an inch or less. As previously mentioned, temps could climb above freezing for a time Sunday afternoon for most. However, portions of interior northern lower and eastern upper may struggle to do so in higher elevations. While widespread precipitation isn't expected largely until Monday, this warm up would provide a timeframe for a transition to a rain/mix for some areas before cooling down again Sunday night.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 321 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

High Impact Weather: Potential winter storm early week, along with frigid temps and lake effect to follow.

Sunday night, an upper-level jet max across the southern Great Plains will help develop a lee cyclone that will deepen and move to the northeast along the aforementioned boundary into the Great Lakes region Monday. Uncertainties in forecast strength and track prohibit specific details at this time. However, rain, snow, and gusty winds are expected to impact northern Michigan through Tuesday with this system. The potential for a wintry mix exists, but latest model guidance hints towards more rain/snow at this time. Details regarding areas of greatest impacts and snow accumulations will be more clear as the event draws closer. Frigid temps are expected behind this system with high temps in the teens and lows in the single digits with wind chills potentially below freezing through the end of the week. West to northwest winds will likely bring additional lake effect snow to northern Michigan during this time as well.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1046 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

MVFR cigs at times, mainly PLN/MBL and perhaps TVC.

High pressure moving into western IL will pass to the south of MI Saturday morning. Lake effect clouds and snow showers have been decaying. However, an uptick is expected toward dawn, as a weak upper level disturbance lends a hand. Some snow showers will be in the vicinity of mbL/PLN/TVC at times in the morning, and cigs will ride the border between VFR and MVFR. Cigs will improve later in the day.

Light winds overnight will become ssw Saturday. Those winds will be gusty at times in the afternoon evening, and LLWS will develop late in the evening.

MARINE. Issued at 321 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Gusty northwest winds diminish tonight and back west/southwesterly heading into Saturday. Current small craft advisories run through this evening and will likely be allowed to expire as advertised. But, southwest winds ramp back up later Saturday and especially Saturday night into Sunday and gale force gusts are looking likely for Saturday night into Sunday on Lake Michigan. Plan to maintain the gale watch for now. Later shifts can upgrade to a warning as we get closer to the event.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. LM . GALE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for LMZ323. GALE WARNING from 9 PM Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday for LMZ341- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 8 mi57 min W 7 G 11 25°F 37°F1026.2 hPa
WSLM4 27 mi51 min W 8.9 25°F 36°F1026.5 hPa (+0.0)13°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 36 mi57 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 1025.5 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 37 mi57 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 22°F 1025.1 hPa17°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi57 min W 2.9 G 2.9 21°F 38°F1025.4 hPa18°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 43 mi57 min W 11 G 15 26°F 1024.8 hPa17°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 46 mi57 min N 5.1 G 5.1 22°F 1025.4 hPa13°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 46 mi71 min WNW 5.1 G 8 19°F 1025.4 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 46 mi57 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 21°F 42°F1024.2 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
E9
E7
G10
E10
G13
E9
E6
SE4
SW4
NW12
G17
NW20
G26
NW12
G19
NW13
G19
NW13
G21
NW15
G24
NW18
G25
NW18
G23
NW18
G25
NW17
G21
NW12
G19
NW11
G21
NW12
G19
NW14
G19
NW11
G17
NW12
G15
N8
G11
1 day
ago
NW16
G25
NW16
G21
NW14
G19
NW13
G19
NW10
G19
NW9
G14
NW16
G22
NW14
G21
N11
G14
N7
NW5
G8
NW6
G10
NW6
G9
NW6
NW4
N2
G5
--
S2
SE5
SE5
SE6
SE8
G11
SE8
SE9
2 days
ago
W10
G16
W10
G13
W10
G15
NW10
G14
NW12
G18
NW14
G20
NW14
G22
NW15
G25
NW17
G23
NW16
G24
NW20
G25
NW20
NW13
G20
NW15
G21
NW16
G23
NW16
G23
NW18
G22
NW13
G24
NW17
G23
NW17
G24

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI1 mi56 minNW 910.00 miOvercast25°F15°F69%1026.1 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI15 mi76 minSW 310.00 miOvercast23°F16°F76%1026.4 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI22 mi57 minN 010.00 miOvercast25°F15°F66%1027.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrE6E7E4NE4CalmW3W10
G15
NW10
G16
NW10
G20
W10
G16
W8NW10
G15
NW11
G20
W14
G20
NW15
G20
W11
G18
W14
G21
W12
G19
W13
G19
W11
G18
W9
G16
W11
G17
W9NW5
1 day agoNW13
G21
NW15
G25
NW10
G16
W9W7W13
G18
NW10
G18
NW8N7NW5NW8W5NW6NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmE3E3SE4SE4E4E9
G14
2 days agoW8W8W8
G14
W9W8W9W10
G16
W12
G20
NW13
G18
W13
G21
NW11
G20
W14
G20
W14
G21
NW13
G22
NW13
G21
NW11
G20
NW9
G15
NW10
G17
NW11
G20
W16
G23
NW16
G22
W16
G21
W15
G20
W14
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.