Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinac Island, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:29PM Friday September 25, 2020 9:23 AM EDT (13:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 402 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202009251615;;329627 FZUS53 KAPX 250802 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 402 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-251615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinac Island, MI
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location: 45.86, -84.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 251009 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 609 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal. Areas of dense fog across NE lower through daybreak. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late tonight. Severe storms not expected.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

One shortwave was off to the south of Michigan, while another was seen working into central Canada and the Dakotas. At the sfc, there is a weak sfc low sitting on top of a stalled out front that is still draped across nrn lower Michigan. This front extends back across WI/MN, and up through Manitoba as a warm front, and is tied to low pressure in nrn Saskatchewan. This low pressure has a cold front that drapes southward into the Dakotas, associated with a band of light rain showers. Here in nrn Michigan, very weak theta-e convergence over the top of the stalled out front has allowed some weak spits of light rain to develop over the last several hours. The BL is also quite moist, not only along/north of the stalled out front, but also to the south. Stratus and fog were common not only north of the front, but with radiational cooling and easterly flow off Lake Huron, stratus and fog were spreading westward toward NW lower.

Shallow mid level ridging will start working in over the region for the remainder of the overnight hours through the early afternoon. Low level BL winds are already turning out of the south, which will shove the stalled out front, north as a warm front. The front will be well north of us by the end of this morning. This will help shove the stratus and fog out of the area over the next several hours. Skies will eventually clear out through the day, especially in nrn lower. The low pressure in nrn Saskatchewan works it's way eastward through today and tonight, and the aforementioned cold front starts making it's way across the upper Mississippi valley today, before laying over into Ontario, eastern Lake Superior, and WI by daybreak Saturday. Most all of the forcing from DPVA, upper divergence from a little jet support, and especially the theta-e convergence, are going to be to our north. Not sold on a really great chance for convection here, but gotta have at least a chance of showers, and even mention the shot at a non-severe thunderstorm or two, with several hundred j/kg MUCAPE as the front arrives, right on the leading edge of a steep lapse rate plume.

Highs today will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in eastern upper, where southerly winds are coming in off the Lakes. Readings in nrn lower will be quite warm, in the middle 70s to around 80F in spots. Lows tonight will be rather mild in the stronger southerly winds, in the upper 50s to lower 60s most areas.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

High Impact Weather . Heavy rainfall possible Saturday night, breezy at times weekend with the potential for high swim risk conditions.

Active weather this weekend. Cold front approaches the Great Lakes from the west Saturday and then kinda lays out across the northern part of the CWA Saturday night. Cold front moves through Sunday.

Ahead of the front decent moisture with dewpoints in the 60s and PWATS above 1.25" over the area Saturday. Approach of LF quad of 130kt jet late Saturday and 60kt 850mb jet from the west should enhance lift nearby the boundary. Position of the jet and boundary should bring the best chance for precipitation north. Instability hard to find ahead of the front but very good shear with 40kts of 6km Bulk Shear possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Strength of the lift and LLJ angle of into the boundary should be enough to get convection. Any convective elements that do get going could be slow- moving/back-building possibly leading to heavy rainfall amounts Saturday night.

Strong LLJ overhead on Saturday and possibility of very good mixing should lead to increasing winds along the Lake Michigan shoreline once again Saturday afternoon/evening.

Front blows through Sunday morning but lingering low level moisture around through the day could bring an afternoon shower or two.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

. Lots of shower chances and turning much colder .

Secondary cold front moves through Monday. Deepening trough in the center part of the country helps a strong wave develop on the front over the SE U.S. and sends it north into the eastern Great Lakes. Exact track of the low will change between now and then but it could bring more rain and windy conditions for the early part of the work week. In any case, deep trough moves into the Great Lakes Tuesday with a closed low developing over Ontario. This low will rotate much colder air into the area with high temperatures possibly struggling to reach 50F by Wednesday and Thursday. The cold air and position of the trough will bring lake effect/instability clouds and showers, and breezy conditions leading to a not very nice spell of weather for the region mid to late next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 609 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

A frontal boundary draped across northern lower Michigan will lift north as a warm front this morning, while deep low pressure in nrn Canada will drag a cold front into nrn Michigan late tonight and Saturday. There's still some IFR CIGS from stratus, and some IFR/MVFR VSBYS due to fog at APN attm, but that will be lifting north in the next couple of hours. Skies are expected to clear to scattered VFR cumulus this afternoon, with VFR conditions continuing tonight with just some increase in VFR clouds ahead of the front.

Winds will become a little gusty out of the SW this afternoon in a tightening pressure gradient, and may remain gusty at times tonight. Finally, there is also a chance of showers late tonight into Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

A frontal boundary draped across northern lower Michigan will lift north as a warm front this morning, while deep low pressure in nrn Canada will drag a cold front into nrn Michigan late tonight and Saturday. Skies are expected to clear up through today, and winds will reach advisory levels this afternoon and tonight out of the SW, in a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front. This will be for Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay. There is also a chance for some showers with this front late tonight through Saturday, while winds die down a bit. Then, an area of low pressure advances into the region Saturday night. This ramps winds back up again and brings a better shot at showers and potential storms. More advisories expected, despite some overlake stability, maybe some gales.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ341-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . KF LONG TERM . KF AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45175 8 mi25 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 58°F 58°F1015 hPa58°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 8 mi54 min SE 7 G 8.9 58°F 60°F1013.4 hPa58°F
SRLM4 26 mi54 min 56°F 58°F55°F
WSLM4 27 mi144 min 58°F 60°F1014 hPa (+0.6)58°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 36 mi54 min ESE 6 G 7 60°F1014.4 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 37 mi54 min ESE 4.1 G 6 55°F 59°F1014.6 hPa53°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi54 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 56°F 57°F1014.5 hPa56°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 43 mi54 min ESE 12 G 17 56°F 1013.9 hPa56°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 46 mi54 min SE 7 G 9.9 54°F 58°F1014.3 hPa54°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 46 mi44 min ESE 15 G 18 59°F 1012.9 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 46 mi54 min ESE 6 G 11 54°F 60°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI1 mi29 minSE 51.50 miFog/Mist57°F56°F100%1014.6 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI15 mi29 minSE 44.00 miFog/Mist59°F58°F98%1014.6 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI22 mi30 minS 45.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F96%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E7E7
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--SE6SE6SE4--SE9E3E6SE6SE5
1 day agoSW3SW5SW3CalmW3SW3W6SW3W3SW4W7SW8SW6W7NW5NW5NW5NW5CalmNE5N5NE3E9E7
2 days agoW10
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SW6W7SW6W6W6SW6W7W6W5Calm--SW4CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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