Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinac Island, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:33PM Saturday August 24, 2019 4:39 PM EDT (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:55PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 408 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Through early evening..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201908250415;;149943 FZUS53 KAPX 242008 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 408 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-250415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinac Island, MI
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location: 45.86, -84.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241945
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
345 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 345 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Quiet and cool again tonight...

high impact weather potential: minimal. Some fog status possible
overnight.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon analysis reveals a sharp
short-wave ridge axis from the midwest up through the far western
great lakes, part of a pseudo omega block pattern across the
region. Strong surface high pressure is centered just northeast of
state with easterly flow cycling cool dry air through the region.

We have seen some heating of the day CU develop across inland
areas, although overall sunny mostly sunny skies are the rule.

Primary forecast concerns: overnight lows and fog stratus
potential.

Sharp short-wave ridge and surface high pressure will edge off to
the east tonight while our low level flow veers southeasterly and
increases just a bit. Heating of the day CU fades early this
evening leading to clear skies and another good radiational
cooling setup. That said, moderating low level temperatures and the
slight increase in low level flow may counteract radiational
cooling to some degree particularly across the western part of the
forecast area. So for tonight... I have the coolest overnight lows
across interior eastern upper and northeast lower michigan with
those areas dipping into the upper 30s to lower 40s while
acknowledging that we will probably have a few spots dip into the
middle 30s once again (atlanta, mio, etc).

Fog stratus: given our afternoon min dewpoints (crossover temps)
of 45 to 50, anticipated lows and a decoupled boundary layer,
some fog seems reasonable, especially across eastern upper and ne
lower michigan where the lowest temps are anticipated. Eventual low
level SE warm moist flow off lake huron overtop a cool boundary
layer may add to the fog or even stratus potential. Will see. But
i have added patchy-areas of fog to the forecast as well as some
increasing cloud cover (stratus) toward morning.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday)
issued at 345 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

A better chance for rain on Monday night Tuesday?...

high impact weather potential... Thunder possible Monday evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure over the upper great lakes
begins to slip east, allowing the return flow to move into the
state. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient tightens. This
will lead to stronger winds near the straits, initially, but then
spread across the region Monday afternoon, as the warm front passes
through lower michigan. Rain showers are expected in the afternoon,
but the main precipitation comes in Monday evening (after 00z tue)
as a 500 mb shortwave moves into the region with the front. The cold
front and the sfc trough, associated with the sfc low move through
by 12z Tue bringing rain showers, and maybe some thunder. The rain
looks to clear out by Tuesday afternoon as some shortwave ridging
and dry air quickly noses into the region.

Primary forecast concerns... This could be the best chance for rain
that we have seen in a while. However, as we have seen in the past
few weeks, the models have been having trouble with the frontal
passages. However, this looks to be more a concerted effort for the
500 mb low and jet to sink into N plains and the upper great lakes.

Since we are beginning to head into the fall season, this does look
to be more a fall type system. The 850 mb temperatures associated
with this system(upstream) are in the mid single digits so there is
better certainty with this system.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 345 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal
extended (Tuesday evening through Saturday)... After the brief warm
up for early part of the week, as the we get into the middle of the
week, there is a cooling trend with the long wave pattern. A decent
500 mb low drops south into NW ontario, just west of james bay, on
Tuesday night, which looks to brings with it 850 mb temperatures that
are sub +5c. As that air and the sfc low moves into lake superior,
+6c +7c air moves over lake michigan and its +21c water
temperatures. We may be looking at le rain possibilities for
Wednesday and Wednesday night, before high pressure and dry air
Thursday move in. However, there are some timing issues with the gfs
and ECMWF so that small rain chances continue through Thursday and
Friday. Friday night and Saturday, high pressure builds into the
region and it looks like it dries out again.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 238 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019
strong high pressure across the region will provide solidVFR
conditions through Sunday morning. That said, some shallow fog
will again be possible particularly across north-central and ne
lower michigan.

Otherwise, light winds this afternoon and tonight. SE winds pick
up some Sunday afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 345 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019
light winds and waves anticipated tonight. Some SE gustiness
develops on Sunday and it might be enough to consider small craft
advisories up through the straits. But stronger flow comes on
Monday and it appears that small crafts will be needed for many
nearshore areas at that time.

Weather-wise, quiet tonight through Sunday night. Shower chances
return Monday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45175 8 mi31 min SSW 3.9 G 7.8 67°F 67°F1 ft1027 hPa52°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 8 mi52 min ENE 11 G 14 67°F 69°F1026.9 hPa
SRLM4 26 mi70 min ENE 6 71°F 65°F47°F
WSLM4 27 mi160 min NNE 2.9 64°F 67°F1027.7 hPa (-0.6)50°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 36 mi52 min SE 6 G 7 67°F1026.7 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 37 mi58 min SE 1 G 6 72°F 63°F1025.8 hPa46°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi52 min S 8 G 8.9 65°F 63°F1026.1 hPa51°F
45022 40 mi30 min NNW 14 G 18 67°F 69°F1 ft1026.3 hPa54°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 43 mi52 min ENE 7 G 8 69°F 1025.6 hPa
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 46 mi52 min SSE 7 G 8 70°F 62°F1025.8 hPa48°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 46 mi60 min S 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 1026.4 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 46 mi52 min ENE 8.9 G 11 71°F 66°F1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI1 mi64 minE 510.00 miFair69°F46°F45%1026.7 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI15 mi45 minENE 1110.00 miFair69°F48°F48%1026.1 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI22 mi46 minVar 410.00 miFair74°F45°F36%1026.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE5NE3CalmN4N7N6N4--N5N4CalmSE5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E7NE7E5E7
1 day agoN4N6N7N8N9
G14
N8--N4N5N4N4N4N5N3N4N4NE3N5NE6N5N3N7N6N8
2 days agoSW10
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NW8NW7----NW9NW8NW7NW7NW5N5NW7NW5NW4NW5NW5W6W4W4N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.