Monday, October14, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
St. Helens, OR

Version 3.4
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:28PM Monday October 14, 2019 7:27 PM PDT (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 6:19PMMoonset 7:03AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 216 Pm Pdt Mon Oct 14 2019
In the main channel.. - general seas...seas 3 to 5 ft through Tuesday. - first ebb...around 600 pm Monday. Seas build to 6 ft. - second ebb...around 615 am Tuesday. Seas build to 5 ft. - third ebb...around 630 pm Tuesday. Seas build to 10 ft.
PZZ200 216 Pm Pdt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. The first in a series of fronts will move over the waters late Tue morning through Wed. A second stronger front will advance towards the coast Fri night into Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Helens, OR
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location: 45.87, -122.8     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 142204
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
303 pm pdt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis High pressure remains over the region through early
Tuesday. High clouds begin to increase Tuesday ahead of the next
disturbance approaching the region from the gulf of alaska. The
leading front likely arrives Tuesday night, with a second front
following on Tuesday. Wet and locally breezy conditions are expected
with the second front, and may continue at times through the rest of
the week as a series of disturbances move across the region.

Short term Tonight through Thursday. Low clouds and fog lingered a
bit later this morning than expected, but skies have largely cleared
across the forecast area this afternoon. Weak high pressure remains
over the region through early Tuesday, but increasing mid and high
level clouds will spread over the region tonight and tomorrow. This
should preclude much in the way of fog development tonight,
especially across the northern portions of the forecast area, though
cannot entirely rule out the possibility for areas such as the
southern willamette valley, including around eugene and creswell.

The approaching front will slow as it approaches, with guidance
suggesting the leading rain will reach the coastline late Tuesday
afternoon or evening, and not spread across the interior until late
Tuesday night. After perhaps a brief break Wednesday morning across
some areas, a second disturbance approaches and moves across the
area. This should result in an increase in rainfall amount and
intensity across the region as the day progresses. This continues to
have the potential for fairly large rainfall amounts, aided by the
influx of a plume of subtropical moisture. Gefs-based atmospheric
river forecasting guidance suggests a reasonably high probability of
a weak to moderate atmospheric river pushing onshore somewhere along
the northern and central oregon coast on Wednesday. As a result,
trended the QPF closer to the nbm guidance, which lies on the higher
end of the spread of available guidance. This corresponds to generally
1 to 2 inches of rain across the coast, coast range willapa hills,
and cascades through daybreak Thursday. During the same time, expect
between one-half inch and one inch across the interior lowlands. With
most area rivers starting off the week well below flood stages, river
flooding is not anticipated with these two rounds of steadier rain.

However, high rainfall rates may bring about some urban flooding
concerns during the periods of heaviest rain in locations that
experience poor drainage.

Coastal winds will also be particularly breezy, with gusts to around
40 mph on Wednesday ahead of the cold front. As is typical, a few
gusts closer to 50 mph are possible along the beaches and the coastal
headlands, but the orientation of the surface pressure gradient
likely will prevent stronger winds from mixing down to the surface.

The one aspect of this system that will likely not be a major factor
is snow. Snow levels may briefly to around 5,000 feet, but will
generally remain at 6,000 feet or higher through the next several
days. So while some snow may be added in the highest elevations of
the cascades, winter driving conditions are not expected to cause
concern over the major cascade passes. The upper level trough
continues to slide across the region into Thursday, with continued
showers likely through the day Thursday. Cullen

Long term Thursday night through Monday. If the forecast seems
fairly similar each day for the short term period, then the long term
period will likely begin with more of the same. Guidance continues to
suggest a fairly wet week as a series of disturbances will enhance
showers at times in the moist mid and upper level flow. This will
generally result in the highest amounts of precipitation in the
terrain of the coast range and cascades, but with each round of
enhancement, there will be the potential for stronger periods of
rain. Given the potential rainfall through the rest of this week,
will need to monitor both potential rainfall amounts and how much of
a break there is between each round of rain, as this will be
important in determining what, if any, hydrologic issues may develop.

One other note is that a slight chance of thunderstorms was
introduced into the forecast both Thursday evening and Friday
afternoon evening, with forecast model soundings suggesting decent
instability each day. The timing of each upper level disturbance, and
the resulting cold pool aloft, moving across the region may
significantly alter these chances in the coming days but there was
enough of a signal in the guidance to include at this time.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain rather steady-state during the
long term period, not fluctuating by more than a couple of degrees as
this wet pattern remains persistent through the period. Cullen

Aviation Vfr conditions will prevail through the evening
around 08z. North-northeasterly flow will be dominate through
04z Tuesday, then winds will begin to shift to a more south-
southeasterly direction. At this time, a front will beginning
it's advancement towards the west coast. The main challenge for
this package is the potential regeneration of fog and low
stratus overnight after 08z Tuesday. Areas of specific concern
are keug and khio, where ceilings and visibility may drop to ifr
after 12z Tuesday. While there is some chance of more widespread
development, dry air aloft in combination with a wide dewpoint
spread should keep fog at bay.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR and generally northerly winds prevail
through 12z Tuesday. High level MVFR ceilings after 12z Tuesday.

A chance of fog development is possible near sunset around 14z
Tuesday, however, confidence remains low. -muessle

Marine This next week can be described as a series of strong
fronts. The first front will move over the waters on Tuesday
morning. This front carries a lot of energy with it putting all
the waters under a small craft advisory through Wednesday. Winds
are expected to begin rising Tuesday morning to 15 to 20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt possible. Winds will increase, especially in the
outer waters, through Wednesday with gusts up to 30 kt. These
strong winds are expected to persist through Wednesday, and
begin to weaken Thursday. On Friday morning, the second stronger
front will move over the waters. With this system, winds are
expected to remain in the 10 to 15 kt range with gusts to 20 to
25 kt. After the frontal passage, winds will decrease to 8 to 12
kt with 15 to 20 kt gusts on Sunday through Monday.

In a similar fashion, seas will begin to build on Tuesday when
the front moves over the waters. The outer waters will see seas
build to 10 to 15 ft Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, and
inner waters will see seas near 8 to 10 ft. While winds begin to
weaken on Thursday with the passing of the first front, seas will
build. Heights ranging from 15 to 18 ft in the outer waters, and
12 to 15 ft near the coastline are possible. Seas are expected
to peak on Thursday afternoon when they build to 18 to 20 ft
through the evening. The second front will move over the waters
on Friday and seas will persist from 12 to 15 ft through Sunday
morning. Seas will subside through early next week.

The main challenge with this forecast is the potential for gales
with the system early on Wednesday, as well as the chance for
high surf on Thursday. The seas expected exhibit a lot of energy
with a long period and high heights. At this time, forecasted
seas are on the cusp of meeting high surf criteria on Thursday.

This impact will be watched closely over the next day or so.


Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to 5 am pdt Wednesday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 18 mi58 min 58°F1016.4 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 56 mi58 min Calm G 1 57°F 57°F1016.1 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 63 mi58 min 55°F1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR8 mi35 minW 410.00 miFair50°F45°F83%1016 hPa
Southwest Washington Regional Airport, WA18 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair55°F44°F67%1017.3 hPa
Pearson Airfield, WA19 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair53°F36°F52%1016.1 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR21 mi35 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F41°F57%1016.4 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR24 mi35 minENE 310.00 miFair56°F43°F62%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSPB

Wind History from SPB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN4NE4CalmN4N6CalmW3W4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmN4CalmN3E3W4
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmSW3W4CalmSW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE444NW6NW5CalmCalm
2 days agoW4W4W4W3W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3Calm4E4SE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Saint Helens, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kalama, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.