Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 2:59 AM   Moonset 2:02 PM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 241 Pm Pdt Fri May 3 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 3 to 4 ft building to 5 ft Saturday afternoon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 4.33 kt at 127 pm Friday. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 4.58 kt at 215 am Saturday. Seas 4 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 4.46 kt at 228 pm Saturday. Seas 5 ft.

PZZ200 241 Pm Pdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - A front moves over the waters today bringing breezy conditions. Active weather persists through the weekend followed by a low pressure over the northeast pacific with additional weakening system affecting the waters into early next week. Calmer more summer-like weather returns around the middle of next week.

FXUS66 KPQR 032134 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 234 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cool and wet this weekend as an upper low moves into western OR and northern CA, bringing a prolonged period of light to occasionally moderate stratiform rain late Friday through Saturday.
Remaining cool Sunday through Tuesday with showers at times. Upper level ridging will then bring a quick warmup mid to late week, with high temperatures likely rising above 80 degrees across the interior lowlands by Friday.

SHORT TERM
Friday through Sunday night...Surface weather analysis from 1pm Friday revealed a warm front/cold front pair over the coastal waters moving east towards the coast. This frontal system was associated with a broad area of low pressure centered around 400-500 miles west of Vancouver Island. A wave of moisture ahead of the aforementioned warm front has already resulted in light rain at the coast. This moisture will continue spreading inland Friday afternoon as the system's warm front lifts over the area. Once rain begins, expect a prolonged period of light to occasionally moderate stratiform rain across all of northwest OR and southwest WA through the day on Saturday as the trailing cold front pushes through. Precip will transition to showers on Sunday within the post-frontal environment. This system will have an abundant amount of moisture as IVT values max out around 300-400 kg/ms this evening. Models still show precipitable water values around 1 inch, which is about two standard deviations above normal for this time of year.

There have been minimal changes the total QPF forecast with this system. Still expect around 1-1.5 inches for the interior lowlands, and 1.5-2 inches for the coast and mountains from late morning today to tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon. No impactful winter weather is expected for the Cascade passes today as snow levels will rise above 6500 to 7000 feet. Despite the impressive rain amounts for early May, no flooding concerns are expected as hourly rain rates look to generally be under 0.2 inches/hr, except under heavier showers on Sunday. HEFS probabilistic guidance continues to show a less than 5% chance of reaching action stage for the majority of rivers. Two rivers with the highest chances of reaching action stage are Marys River at Philomath (5-10% chance) and Tualatin River near Dilley (15% chance).

As the low pressure system progresses southward toward California Saturday, cold air aloft will return and snow levels will fall back down to around 3500 to 4000 feet. Given the precip expected this weekend, another round of winter weather will impact the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued above 3500 feet for the North Oregon Cascades to the Lane County Cascades from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM Sunday morning. These locations are forecast to receive around 4 to 10 inches of snow, except up to 16 inches for the highest peaks above 5000 feet. Those traveling through the passes this weekend should prepare for winter weather conditions. Meanwhile, the lowlands will continue to see rain showers through the weekend. -TK/Alviz


LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...The long term forecast is highlighted by a rapid change in the weather pattern from cool and showery conditions Monday through Tuesday to much warmer and drier conditions late in the week. Models and their ensembles continue to show a shortwave trough moving across Washington and Oregon Monday into Tuesday, bringing a shift from westerly flow aloft to northwesterly behind the trough axis. This trough will bring the continuation of cool and showery weather with high temps mainly in the 50s and snow levels around 4000 ft on Monday falling to 3000 ft on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, confidence is high for a rapid shift in the weather pattern from cool and wet to warm and dry. This abrupt shift is the result of an upper level ridge that is set to build over the region, and all four clusters shown in WPC's cluster analysis depict this ridge with varying amplitudes. The deterministic NBM currently suggests highs in the 60s Wednesday, 70s Thursday (except 60s at the coast), and 80s Friday (except low 70s at the coast). The coolest model solutions are similar to the NBM 10th percentile, showing inland high temps only peaking in the mid 70s on Friday. Meanwhile, the warmest model solutions show highs near 90 degrees from Portland to Eugene. Either way, temps will be running above normal for this time of year. The probability for high temps at or above 80 degrees on Friday is already at 70-80% across the interior lowlands, which is quite high for a forecast that is seven days out. Overall, the warmest temps of the year so far are likely to occur next weekend.
This may draw some people to area rivers and/or lakes, but keep in mind water temps are still very cold and river currents will be swift with mountain snowmelt. We plan on actively messaging cold water safety tips late next week in preparation for the warm weather ahead, as cold water shock and hypothermia will be a very real risk for anyone who decides to take a swim. -TK

AVIATION
Satellite and radar observations this afternoon show rainfall quickly spreading across western Oregon as our next weather disturbances races into the Pacific Northwest. Confidence is high after precipitation initially begins 21-23z cigs drop to MVFR with model guidance indicating a 70-95% chance for less than 3kft CIGS after 03-06z for all sites. KONP likely continues to fluctuate between MVFR and IFR conditions the rest of the afternoon before trending solely to IFR overnight and through Saturday. We’ll also have to watch for a period of IFR CIGS at inland sites Saturday morning between roughly 10-16z, although confidence in the timing of any such category change is low to moderate currently. Given the deep moisture, expect mountains to become obscured. Wet weather persists through the rest of Saturday accompanied by a mix of MVFR to temporarily IFR conditions through at least 00z.

Winds remain fairly variable and light (<10 kt), but once the front nears, winds will take on a stronger southerly character.
Winds at coastal terminals will begin to gust to around 20-25 kt from the south around ~22z Fri to 03z Saturday, then gradually veer more southwesterly and weaken through Saturday morning before increasing again to the 15-20 knot range Saturday afternoon.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions under increasing high clouds will soon transition to rain(~2130-2200z) with gradually lowering CIGS the rest of the afternoon into the early evening hours.
Chances for CIGS less than 3kft increase to around 80-90% by 06Z Sat. Winds generally east through about 00Z Sat then more south to southeasterly. Expect periods of rain and low-end(<2kft) MVFR conditions to continue early Saturday morning through the rest of the forecast period. -Schuldt

MARINE
A cold front associated with a low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska continues to spread rainfall across the region this afternoon. Winds associated with this feature have been gusting around 20-35 knots based on the very limited bouy observations available but at least this lines up well with the latest high- resolution guidance. The current Small Craft Advisory was expanded to include the inner waters south of Cape Falcon where gusts up to 25 knots are expected to occur with more regularity into the evening - although that's not to say isolated gusts of this magnitude won't be found further north. Winds ease this evening into Saturday morning, but expect to see a period of marginally steep seas (6 to 8 ft at 8 to 9 seconds) Saturday afternoon and evening over both the inner and outer waters.
Otherwise, anticipate another burst of SW wind gusts near 20-30 knots Sunday into Monday morning before we begin a transition to a calmer weather pattern and eventual shift to N-NW winds Tuesday and Wednesday. -Schuldt

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ126>128.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ252- 253-271>273.

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Vancouver
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Fri -- 03:47 AM PDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:20 AM PDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:31 AM PDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:36 AM PDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:41 PM PDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:58 PM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet

Knappa
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Fri -- 04:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:01 AM PDT     2.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:19 AM PDT     7.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:27 PM PDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:29 PM PDT     7.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

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