Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Ignace, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:12AMSunset 4:52PM Sunday December 15, 2019 12:25 AM EST (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:38PMMoonset 11:16AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1008 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am est Sunday...
Overnight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Isolated snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201912151115;;800646 FZUS53 KAPX 150308 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1008 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-151115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Ignace, MI
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location: 45.88, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 150306 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1006 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 956 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Area of light mixed precipitation which resulted in some slick spots on area roads has generally exited the region late this evening as mid level wave pushes east. In its wake, increasingly colder air will turn on the lake effect machine overnight into the day on Sunday. Forecast soundings not very impressive for lake effect with sub 5k inversion heights and <40% RH in the H10-H8 layer. This will keep the lake effect in check, with a few localized 1-3" amounts possible in northwest flow favored areas. Lake effect snow showers will drift eastward on Sunday as low level winds back more westerly.

Other than the light lake effect, just cold temperatures and gusty winds. Wind chills likely in the single digits later tonight into Sunday morning. Winds gusting 20+ mph at times, especially closer to the coasts.

UPDATE Issued at 604 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Upper/thermal trough beginning to swing into the area early this evening. Cold air advection will ramp up quickly over the next few hours and winds will becoming gusty from the northwest with tightening gradient. Area of light freezing drizzle/light snow helping to usher in the colder air causing some slick roads. Everything will transition to light snow this evening as temperatures aloft fall. More pure lake effect setting up late tonight into Sunday with the loss of synoptic moisture. Not looking like a big deal with minimal moisture, but a few areas could see an inch or two.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 355 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Impactful weather: Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle changing to light lake effect snow showers tonight, with minimal accumulations.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Forecast soundings continue to show moisture only reaching to around -6C through the afternoon, before an upper level trough moves through the forecast area and begins cooling the atmosphere. Three will be some chances of freezing drizzle due to no ice present, but have not seen any observations of such as of yet. Once the upper level trough begins CAA and cools the atmospheric column we introduce ice . any precipitation will then turn to all snow. With 850mb temperatures -8C around 00Z and lake temperatures on average 5C, lake effect snow will begin. 850mb temperatures will continue to cool . to around -15C and inversion heights raise to about 6kft overnight, this may increase intensity of the lake effect snow . but not looking at too much accumulations . maybe around 1-2 inches for the favored northwest flow regime snowbelt areas by Sunday morning due to the better synoptic moisture departing to the northeast. Winds will continue to pick up in intensity throughout the day today and become gusty, with some gusts of 20-25 mph (higher near the Great Lakes shorelines), as the pressure gradient continues to tighten behind a departing weak surface low pressure system. Temperatures will continue to drop throughout the rest of the afternoon as CAA continues . currently around 31-33F and will drop to the teens overnight.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 355 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

. Turning cooler with minor lake effect snow .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Minor accumulating snow in the snowbelts.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Todays composite analysis reveals larger scale troughing across the CONUS with a strong southern stream jet from off the Pacific, crossing the central/southern states into a sharper short-wave trough over the SE CONUS and off the coast. Weaker northern stream jet energy is across central Canada with one short-wave swinging across Ontario. Second piece of short-wave energy is sliding down through Alberta and Saskatchewan. Strong coastal low pressure system is running up the east coast with broad cyclonic flow back through the western lakes, while high pressure is building through the northern Plains.

Weather through the short-term will be rather non-descript across the Plains and northern Great Lakes with the main storm track remaining to our south and east. Aforementioned northern stream short-wave energy will swing through the northern lakes tonight into Sunday bringing colder air back into the region and the redevelopment of minor lake effect snows for tonight through Sunday night. Another fairly strong storm system will emerge out of Texas and slide northeastward through the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys and off the coast Monday into Tuesday. Guidance trends continue to suppress this system southward with with minimal impact to northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: None really. Light lake effect snow accumulations anticipated in some of the snowbelts through the short term.

Details: Strong coastal low is expected to be into Quebec by Sunday morning with high pressure building through the Midwest and western Great Lakes. In between these two systems, expect NW flow lake effect snow showers to be ongoing Sunday morning. Modest lake effect conditions anticipated with lake induced CAPE values running 300 to 400 J/KG through the morning . probably enough to produce around an inch of accumulation where snow showers are most persistent. Moving through the afternoon and Sunday night, surface high pressure is expected to stretch out through the lower lakes region. Backing low level flow, warming temps, subsidence and further drying will gradually diminish lake effect snow showers while becoming more focused through the tip of the mitt.

Monday into Tuesday . weather remains non-descript and more or less seasonable as the aforementioned stronger storm system rides eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys spreading some snow into far southern Lower Michigan. Weak northern stream wave runs through Ontario with a boundary eventually sagging back into the northern lakes. Nothing anticipated with the front. But, cooler air and veering low level flow will eventually push some light lake effect snow showers back into eastern Upper Michigan. Again with minor accumulations.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 355 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Shot of fairly cold air mid week.

Stretch of generally low impact weather continues through the balance of the week and into next weekend. One more northern stream wave will be dropping out of Canada into the Great Lakes late Tuesday through Wednesday bringing one more core of cold air (-20C and colder) for midweek producing high temperatures largely in the teens and low wind chill readings. Some accumulating lake effect snow in the snowbelts of course. Decent instability over the lakes but it is a little to soon to talk about snow amounts.

After that, just like our last cold shot, it's short lived with larger scale ridging/warmer air expected to build eastward out of the Plains and into the Great Lakes for the rest of the week, along with no significant weather.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 604 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Colder air associated with an upper trough will sweep into northern Michigan tonight. Areas of light freezing drizzle/light snow will initially usher in the colder air, with everything transitioning to scattered light snow showers. Cigs generally MVFR, with a period of IFR cigs possible early this evening before the colder air sets in.

The pressure gradient will tighten tonight and winds will become gusty from the northwest at 15-25kts. These gusty winds will continue into Sunday morning before diminishing. Lingering snow shower activity Sunday morning as well. Cigs bouncing between VFR and MVFR on Sunday around the localized lake effect snow shower activity.

MARINE. Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Weak low pressure and a cold front will cross the region today, resulting in some potential spotty drizzle, in weak winds. Cold advection sets in tonight, with the pressure gradient tightening, and NW winds ramping up into advisory speeds and continuing into Sunday. Winds back around more southerly later Sunday through Sunday night, and weaken, as higher pressure arrives.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 PM EST Sunday for LHZ347>349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Sunday for LHZ345-346. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Sunday for LMZ341. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Sunday for LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Sunday for LSZ321.

UPDATE . JK NEAR TERM . TL SHORT TERM . BA LONG TERM . BA AVIATION . JK MARINE . TL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 7 mi55 min NNW 16 G 22 1003.8 hPa
WSLM4 22 mi85 min NW 19 25°F 35°F1003.9 hPa (+0.6)19°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 39 mi61 min NNW 8 G 9.9 1002.5 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 39 mi61 min N 6 G 9.9 23°F 1002.1 hPa18°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 41 mi45 min N 9.9 G 15 22°F 1004.4 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 42 mi61 min NW 19 G 22 21°F 1002.9 hPa19°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 44 mi61 min NW 7 G 16 25°F 37°F1001.5 hPa22°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 47 mi55 min N 11 G 13 1003.1 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 47 mi61 min N 6 G 8.9 20°F 35°F1002 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI4 mi30 minNW 17 G 2210.00 miOvercast24°F19°F81%1003.7 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI19 mi49 minWNW 1510.00 miOvercast26°F21°F84%1003 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi31 minNNW 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast26°F19°F78%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmW3NW5NW4W4W5NW5NW7NW7N7N4NW5NW8NW6NW12
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1 day agoS3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmN5N4NE5NE3NE3S3S4CalmS3CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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