Thursday, July16, 2020
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Ignace, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:27PM Thursday July 16, 2020 12:54 PM EDT (16:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:40AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1100 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Today..Variable wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202007162300;;939367 FZUS53 KAPX 161500 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-162300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Ignace, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.88, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 161512 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1112 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1111 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Morning composite analysis reveals a short-wave trough sliding through the eastern part of Lower Michigan with attending surface low pressure is riding along the Ohio/Michigan border. Associated lingering showers continue across southern/SE Lower Michigan and just into our SE counties . along weakening low-mid level f-gen response. Northerly flow and slightly cooler/drier air is filtering into northern Michigan this morning. Quite a bit of low level moisture/cloud cover remains across northern Lower Michigan especially the SE counties, and we've seen a quick uptick of heating induced StCu in areas that did manage clear out early this morning. Mainly clear skies across Eastern Upper Michigan at the moment.

Northerly flow dry air advection continues through the day which will bring on a NW-SE thinning/clearing trend to the clouds. But just enough lingering low level moisture to at least consider isolated pop-up shower potential across the SE (after the ongoing light showers end that is). With heating, RAP forecast soundings suggest a few to several hundred J/Kg MLCAPE developing in a narrow axis toward Saginaw Bay but also mainly capped above 700 mb. Certainly not out of the question, but potential appears pretty low. I've cut pops back a little this afternoon vs the inherited forecast, and removed thunder completely (just don't think there will be enough for deep moist convection).

Otherwise, seasonable daytime highs anticipated although I have lowered forecast highs down through the E/SE counties where cloud cover will linger longest.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 336 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Shallow upper ridging was over both coasts early this morning, with broad troughing across the central provinces of Canada and the nrn Plains. A shortwave within this broad troughing, was crossing nrn Michigan along with a nice pocket of upper divergence in the right entrance region of an 80+kt jet over eastern Canada. This forcing, coupled with DPVA and low to mid level theta-e convergence, continues to result in showers across nrn Michigan. All the forcing was starting to press off to the east, and latest radar trends show the showers are in fact ending across the western CWA. There were a couple of other weak shortwaves seen upstream, one moving into the nrn Plains and another moving across the arrowhead of MN. Both of these waves were producing additional shower activity.

The current showers in nrn Michigan will continue to wane and press off to the east through this morning, along with the aforementioned forcing. Skies will decrease in cloudiness but daytime heating and remnant BL moisture will lead to a scattered to broken cumulus field. Fcst soundings suggesting that there will be enough low level moisture and heating to lead to some isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, aided by no cap, and the arrival of the upstream weak shortwave from the Dakotas. There's not a lot of MLCAPE that is generated this afternoon (200-500j/kg or so), and the chance for thunder is quite small with this little CAPE, but isolated showers ought to pop off. These will be focused on developing lake breeze convergence that is expected to be mostly in NE lower. Any showers will quickly end into the early evening with loss of daytime heating, leading to a quiet overnight period. Maybe some patchy fog can develop, but not much more than that, as 950- 925mb winds will be around 15-20kts, enough to keep the BL churned a little.

Highs today will mostly be in the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight will mostly be in the upper half of the 50s to the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 336 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorm potential, a few strong, over the weekend.

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing will translate east through Quebec on Friday as a second jet quickly advances across the N CONUS behind it. At the surface, broad high pressure will encompass the CONUS east of the Mississippi River heading into the weekend. A cyclone is expected to develop in lee of the Rockies in S Canada associated with strong westerlies over the terrain. This cyclone should trek east through the weekend, swinging a cold front through the Great Lakes in the late Saturday/Sunday timeframe.

Forecast/Details:

This discussion will be longer than usual as to appropriately discuss the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms, and some potentially strong/severe, both Saturday and Sunday. This is a complex forecast as the potential for multiple rounds of convection initiated by subtle forcing mechanisms and uncertainty in the maintenance of said convection will have a great impact on future days. Regardless, the party looks to start in the Dakotas Friday night as a line of strong storms looks to initiate along the front. An extremely buoyant airmass (MLCAPE greater than 4,000 J/kg) will be out ahead of the line, along with 40+ kts of 0-6km shear to support. Despite instability waning through the night and with eastward extent, confidence lies in this line being able to maintain itself long enough to reach the periphery of the Great Lakes by Saturday morning before outrunning the supportive environment it was in.

While this line isn't anticipated to impact the area directly, any remnant outflow boundaries could have a great impact on Saturday's thunderstorm potential. Guidance suggests a compact shortwave will move overhead in the Saturday morning/afternoon timeframe. Continued strong W/SW low-level flow will advect a moisture-rich airmass into the Great Lakes. While an elevated mixed layer could keep things somewhat capped across northern MI, the environment looks to quickly destabilize to our west. The main question Saturday will be convective initiation. Mesoscale boundaries could provide this source of near-surface lift, either to our west or across our CWA, in tandem with ascent aloft provided by the aforementioned shortwave. While confidence isn't high in exactly what will spark storms Saturday, high confidence does lie in a favorable environment being in place to support said storms. The breadth of favorable low- level moisture and instability from the midwest to the Great Lakes will be impressive Saturday with dewpoints near 70 likely stretching from South Dakota into our CWA. While specifics in details aren't possible at this time, an environment characterized by 2,000+ MLCAPE and 150+ ESRH could support thunderstorms with the risk of all severe hazards. It is important to note that any rain/storms impacting the area on Saturday would most likely initiate in the warm sector and not be associated with the synoptic-scale cold front further upstream.

This leads to confidence in details getting even more smeared heading into Saturday night and Sunday. While current thoughts are storms are more likely than not on Saturday, it is uncertain how that will affect the environment Saturday night into Sunday. Thoughts lean towards a relatively quick airmass recovery given Saturday's convection would likely be ahead of the front, meaning relatively strong S/SW flow could help advect warm, moist air back into negatively buoyant areas. As the cold front looks to swing through the Great Lakes in the Saturday night/Sunday morning timeframe, another round of storms could initiate along the front with support of a strong jet aloft. Once again, strong/severe storms would be possible with this. Strong shear, especially above 3km, could help this line of storms quickly move off of a somewhat diffuse cold front. As if you didn't think more could be piled on, another round of rain/storms could be possible Sunday afternoon as a moist/unstable airmass could still be in place.

The aforementioned warm, moist airmass in place over the weekend will lead to potential highs in the upper 80s/low 90s across northern MI. However, the potential for afternoon thunderstorms could keep afternoon highs from reaching their full potential.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 336 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now . Lingering showers/storms possible Sunday night

Zonal upper-level flow is expected to set up across the Great Lakes through the first half of the week as a jet max departs to the east. At the surface, a cyclone will quickly advance NE through Quebec as an associated cold front is expected to swing down from the Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley. High pressure is anticipated to build into the region behind this. Uncertainty resides in the strength and southward extent of the aforementioned cold as current thoughts are long range model guidance may be underdoing these given the potential for a line of storms moving through before the start of the period. This could wipe northern Michigan of the moisture- rich airmass in place over the weekend, dropping dewpoints back into the 50s. Given no significant systems are expected through the beginning of the week, prolonged near-surface winds with a northerly component would prevent low-level moisture return. Aside from possible lingering showers and storms Sunday night, this would help keep the chance for additional chances through the first half of next week low. Otherwise, high temps look to cool down slightly after this weekend. Highs in the low 80s are generally expected the first half of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 642 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

A cold front has pushed east of the region, and slightly higher pressure will work into nrn Michigan today, which will hang around through Friday. The pressure gradient will be loose with fairly light northerly winds turning to lake breezes this afternoon. The lake breeze convergence inland may result in isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, across primarily NE lower Michigan today, but should be inland enough to not impact APN.

There is some spotty IFR/MVFR CIGS out there, or that will quickly develop for a few hours this morning, before eventually lifting into a 4-5kft SCT-BKN cumulus field that will gradually move inland and more away from the airports through the later afternoon hours. Outside of these few hours of low CIGS, VFR this TAF period.

MARINE. Issued at 336 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

A cold front has pushed east of the region, and slightly higher pressure will work into nrn Michigan today, which will hang around through Friday. The pressure gradient will be loose with fairly light and variable winds turning to lake breezes this afternoon. Winds remain on the lighter side as they turn more out of the west on Friday, with more afternoon lake breezes expected. Outside of some showers exiting Lake Huron through the morning hours, no further precipitation is expected over the Great Lakes until Saturday, when chances for showers and storms return. No wind/wave concerns through tomorrow.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45175 5 mi35 min WSW 1.9 G 3.9 69°F 69°F1017 hPa62°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 7 mi60 min 70°F
SRLM4 32 mi84 min N 1.9 65°F 67°F61°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 39 mi60 min 68°F
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 39 mi60 min 60°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 41 mi74 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 1016.9 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 44 mi60 min 62°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 47 mi60 min 57°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 47 mi60 min 68°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
W7
G10
W3
N7
NE2
N7
G10
N7
S3
N4
NE1
S4
G7
SW1
SW7
W6
G10
W4
NW5
NW9
NW4
NE6
N5
NE4
NE3
NE3
E2
NE2
1 day
ago
SE5
E8
SE11
E9
G12
N3
SE4
SE8
SE12
G15
SE4
G7
SE2
SE3
SE6
S7
S9
S10
S8
G12
S8
S9
G12
S5
SW5
G8
SW5
S3
SW6
SW3
G8
2 days
ago
NW11
W8
G13
NW9
G12
W8
G13
W7
G12
W9
G13
W7
G10
W7
G10
W6
W4
W5
W3
SW2
S2
SW2
SW2
SW2
S3
S9
SW5
G8
S7
G11
S6
S9
S8
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI4 mi59 minW 410.00 miFair70°F64°F83%1017.3 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI19 mi59 minE 410.00 miFair73°F62°F70%1016.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi60 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds73°F61°F66%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrSW5NE6NE4E3N3NW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4CalmNW3NW4N5N5NE5N4NE4NE4CalmNW4
1 day agoSE6E6
G15
CalmE6E4E6E5SE8SE4SE5SE6SE9
G15
S8
G14
S10
G17
S8S8S7S8SW4S5SW5SW3CalmW3
2 days agoW6NW3W9SW8SW7W6W6SW4W4W5W5W5N4E4E3CalmSE5SE7S5S5SE5SE4S7S4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.