Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Ignace, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:42PM Monday August 19, 2019 11:26 PM EDT (03:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:50PMMoonset 9:34AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1004 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Overnight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201908201015;;493767 FZUS53 KAPX 200204 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1004 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-201015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Ignace, MI
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location: 45.88, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 200137
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
937 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Update
Issued at 937 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
a quiet evening in northern mi, and cirrus has been tending to
thin over the past couple of hours. To our south, a wavy warm
front extends from central mo to northern il to southern oh.

North of this front, a few showers are occurring well downstate
(lan and environs), as well as in northern il. This will continue
to percolate until very late in the overnight (after 07z 3am),
when coverage should expand somewhat as front moves further north
and return flow sees an uptick. None of this should bother us,
with precip progged to generally stay near and south of grr-mbs.

Perhaps some mid high clouds edge up into far southern reaches
very late, gladwin arenac cos in particular.

With the above in mind, and light winds, patchy ground fog can be
expected. We mixed out pretty solidly today, so do not expect
much. Cool night for many, with the usual interior cool spots of
northern lower mi in the 40s.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 315 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Quiet and seasonable weather...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon surface analysis reveals low
pressure stretched across the hudson bay region with an ill-
defined front dewpoint boundary arcing down across southern lower
michigan. Secondary trough front stretches down through western
ontario into the upper midwest responsible for a compact area of
cloud cover from northeast minnesota into ontario. Surface high
pressure dry air spans much of northern michigan with lots of
clear skies although we did manage to pop a little bit of cu
across parts of the forecast area.

Tonight: secondary boundary will skirt across lake superior and
there may be just a little bit of associated cloud cover clipping
eastern upper michigan. Per satellite data, there is also a
little bit of high cloud cover upstream extending from minnesota
into wisconsin that will be moving through the region. Otherwise,
surface high pressure and dry air will remain firmly in control
with overall clear mostly clear skies anticipated.

Clear skies light winds and lower dewpoints will allow temps to
fall through the 50s and likely some mid to upper 40s for out
colder inland locations. Given the dry air and excellent daytime
mixing, fog will not be much of an issue. That said, given the
cool-ish temps, suspect we might see just a touch of radiational
fog as well as inland lake "steam fog." i've added patchy fog to
some of the forecast area.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 315 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Will we get any rain? Some might...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure over the forecast area
through the early afternoon of Tuesday, before a shallow 500 mb
shortwave trough moves through the forecast area around 00z wed.

This same shortwave trough looks to help produce rain showers and
thunderstorms from S lower to north of m-55 by the evening, and
brings a decent cold front down out of NW ontario. The QPF on the
models is weak, and will discuss that in more detail in the next
section. The cold front is slow to move through, as the models
continue showers over the upper great lakes through 12z wed. The
main 500 mb low that is near james bay, retrogrades over the day,
which allows the rain showers to continue into Wednesday evening.

Wednesday night looks dry, as dry air aloft (700-500 mb layer
rh<30%) and the sfc ridge moves through ahead of the next sharp 500
mb shortwave trough which moves into the region by 15z thu. Then
very dry air moves into region, aloft (layer rh (700-500 mb) <20%),
keeping the region dry.

Primary forecast concerns... As has been discussed before, the models
are all over the place with the convection. There is a definite
split in the jet streams, which looks to split the main rain areas,
north and south of the region. The problem is the models keep
manufacturing QPF between the main rain areas. Usually, the amount
of the QPF is not much over 0.01", which says to me, that the rain
chance is <20%. The SREF has the best pops, as its ensembles are
showing lots of 0.01" areas. The cams are all over the place as
well, as the GFS and ecmwf. So probably showers, and maybe some
thunder, but am fairly bearish on this scenario.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 315 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal
extended (Thursday evening through Monday)... Thursday night and
Friday, high pressure remains over the region, and produces dry
weather. Saturday and Sunday, it looks like some sort of boundary is
around the region, and could be an issue, but the trend so far, from
run to run, has been for the chances to diminish. Sunday night, the
timing on the MCS has backed off on the ecmwf, and the GFS has it a
bit faster, but it keeps it out of the forecast area. However, the
gfs is taking the main energy and pushing it north into W lake
superior, while the ECMWF is pushing the MCS south. This makes the
ecmwf pretty much dry for Monday, and the GFS pushes a cold front
through with rain and thunder on Monday. The way this season has
been going, it probably won't rain.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 727 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
a touch of fog possible very late tonight, otherwiseVFR.

High pressure centered over the southern great lakes, with only
some mid clouds and cirrus overhead. Quiet conditions are expected
tonight and most of Tuesday. Light winds and partly to mostly
clear skies could result in some late-night ground fog, though we
are on the dry side. Because of the latter, have only placed MVFR
vsbys for a few hours at apn pln mbl. OtherwiseVFR.

Light winds, with lake breezes Tuesday afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 315 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
a little bit of gustiness will be found on the lakes this
afternoon into early evening. Otherwise, overall lighter
winds waves and quiet weather will prevail through Tuesday.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and a bit stronger winds develop on Wednesday that may
lead to small craft advisories.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45175 5 mi27 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 68°F1 ft1016 hPa57°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 7 mi56 min S 4.1 G 5.1 1016.7 hPa
WSLM4 22 mi146 min SSW 8 69°F 65°F1016.2 hPa (-0.4)50°F
45022 38 mi26 min S 5.8 G 5.8 67°F 70°F1 ft1017.2 hPa (+0.0)60°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 39 mi56 min S 2.9 G 4.1 1016.2 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 39 mi62 min S 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 62°F1015.4 hPa52°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 41 mi46 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 67°F 1014.9 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 42 mi56 min S 1.9 G 4.1 1015 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 44 mi56 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 63°F1015.7 hPa58°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 47 mi56 min S 1.9 G 5.1 1015.3 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 47 mi56 min SW 4.1 G 7 65°F 66°F1014.3 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI4 mi90 minSSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F54°F67%1016.3 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI19 mi70 minS 310.00 miFair63°F49°F62%1016.3 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi92 minN 010.00 miFair57°F51°F81%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
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----W4W7--W7W8W7W6W5W7W5SW6SW9SW7W5W7
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1 day agoW4SW3S6S5SE6S6SE7SE6SE6SE6SE7SE9SE7E5E5S6S7
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2 days ago--SE3E4SE4SE5SE5--SE4SE4CalmN3CalmW3W11W9W8SW10
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W10W5SW5W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.