Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Ignace, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 5:32PM Monday January 25, 2021 3:22 PM EST (20:22 UTC) Moonrise 2:28PMMoonset 5:49AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1052 Am Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Today..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming north early in the evening. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202101260000;;471133 FZUS53 KAPX 251552 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1052 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-260000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Ignace, MI
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location: 45.88, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 251731 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1231 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1049 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

Surface ridging extends from strong high pressure centered over Central Canada thru the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Western Great Lakes region late this morning. Mainly clear skies and light winds across much of Northern Lower Michigan early this morning resulted in a rather cold start to the day. Low clouds are in the process of moving back into parts of far Northern and NW Lower Michigan aided by lingering shallow low level moisture and some over-lake instability. Northern edge of the high cloud shield from the strong low pressure system developing over the Southern Plains is now streaming into our southern CWA. Further to the north . a few lake effect flurries are still falling across Eastern Upper Michigan where low level moisture is just a bit deeper. Some flurries will likely stick around across portions of Eastern Upper Michigan thru the afternoon . while Northern Lower Michigan should stay dry all day. Skies will generally be partly to mostly cloudy across our entire CWA . as temps rise into the mid 20s to near 30 degrees this afternoon.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

Impactful weather: Minimal/None. A little light snow possible tonight in much of nrn lower.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A weak area of low pressure was near the Ontario/Quebec border early this morning, with it's associated cold front working through NE lower Michigan. The flow aloft was zonal with little to no forcing in the region, until looking upstream in the lee of the srn Rockies and srn Plains, where a shortwave trough in the srn jet stream was lifting NE. This associated sfc low pressure was in the vicinity of north Texas/OK, which had a warm front extending east across the Gulf states. A strong southerly LLJ was increasingly tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture, resulting in strong theta-e convergence north of the front. This strong theta-e convergence was working with increased DPVA and pretty impressive RUC analyzed upper jet dynamics, to result in an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across much of the srn states. In nrn Michigan, colder air was filling into the region, that was resulting in some light and isolated snow showers/flurries from around the Paradise area and across Whitefish Bay. However, the air mass is quite dry behind the cold front, latest satellite imagery was showing lake effect clouds off Lake Michigan were clearing.

Not much excitement expected today into this evening, with shallow overlake instability to result in a probable mix of clouds and some periods of sun/mostly clear conditions. The cloudier areas will be in the NW/N flow regimes today, which will transition into the NE flow regimes tonight, as the aforementioned sfc low pressure and associated shortwave continue to lift NE and into the Midwest/mid Mississippi valley. This will bring in some increased DPVA and the nrn fringe of the theta-e convergence/advection. The atmosphere will moisten from top down with temperatures at all levels below freezing, for the chance at seeing some light snow development during the overnight hours. This light snow will mainly be along and south of M-32 in nrn lower. Only little accumulation appears possible, a few tenths at most, especially closer to M-55. There does look to be a little lake enhancement involved across NE lower, south of Harrisville,

Outside of some continued light and isolated snow showers/flurries today into this evening in nrn/wstrn Chippewa county, eastern upper will remain out of any chance for the system light snow overnight. Maybe a handful of tenths around Paradise and Whitefish Point today.

Highs today will generally be in upper 20s to around 30F. Lows tonight will range from the single digits to 10F to 15F in eastern upper, to the teens and lower 20s in nrn lower.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Pattern Synopsis:

Broad longwave troughing will encompass the majority of the CONUS Tuesday as an embedded jet max quickly moves over the Ohio River Valley. This will provide support aloft for a cyclone that will trek over the same region and into New England by Wednesday. A more compact shortwave looks to slide across the southern Great Plains and into the SE CONUS on Wednesday as subsidence behind this begins to build high pressure across the center of the country.

Forecast/Details:

The main focus of the short term will be the ongoing chance for snow on Tuesday. While the center of the system is expected to pass far south of the area, the advection of relatively warm, moist air northward in tandem with ascent aloft provided by the jet max should bring at least some snow to northern lower Michigan. Chances for any accumulations will increase with southward extent, but most are anticipated to see around an inch or less. Forecast soundings display a moist environment, but the most favorable upper forcing will be displaced south of the forecast area closer to the system center. As the cyclone departs the Ohio River Valley to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly N/NNW winds ushered in behind will bring some colder temps and light lake effect snow chances. Little accumulation is expected given relatively shallow moisture depth, but the best chance for any will lie along and south of Grand Traverse Bay later Wednesday. Highs in the mid 20s on Tuesday should dip down close to the teens Wednesday thanks to the northerly winds.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

As discussed in the short term, light lake effect snow chances may continue through Thursday across far NW lower and eastern upper Michigan. Overall lack of substantial low-level moisture should largely inhibit accumulations, but temperatures near -12C in the growth layer may result in large enough flake sizes to see some accumulations. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the Great Lakes late this week, muting any precip chances heading into the weekend. Cold overnight lows are anticipated through the remainder of the week as some areas my dip down close to zero some nights. Any clearing and calm winds as a result of the high pressure building in overhead late this week could lead to overnight temperatures plummeting to the coldest we've seen so far this winter. Otherwise, long range model guidance hints at the potential for system to impact the region at the end of this upcoming weekend. However, this is nearly a week away and details will become more clear as the week progresses.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

Surface ridging over the Western Great Lakes will maintain dry wx across Northern Lower Michigan this afternoon thru tonight. Low pressure will lift out of the Southern Plains and thru the Mid Mississippi Valley this evening . and then track just north of the Ohio Valley late tonight into Tuesday. Northern edge of deep moisture will lift into Lower Michigan . resulting in increasing chances of light snow for areas south of M-32 on Tuesday. Overall cigs will remain MVFR thru the 24 hour forecast period. Winds will become NE AOB 10 kts tonight and then strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts on Tuesday.

MARINE. Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

Strong high pressure in the central provinces to the western Great Lakes will drop more into the Northern and Central Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night, while a low pressure system crosses the low and mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys over this time. Sub-advisory northerly winds will turn more NE tonight and increase to advisory levels in most nearshore waters of Lakes Michigan and Huron, which will continue into Tuesday night. There is also a chance for light snow developing over portions Lakes Michigan and Huron late tonight through Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ347- 348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323- 342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 7 mi53 min N 4.1 G 6 25°F 33°F1017.7 hPa14°F
WSLM4 22 mi53 min NNW 8.9 23°F 1019 hPa12°F
SRLM4 32 mi53 min NW 11 24°F 32°F13°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 39 mi53 min WNW 9.9 G 16 1017.4 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 39 mi53 min WNW 12 G 19 25°F 1017.9 hPa15°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 41 mi43 min N 8.9 G 12 26°F 1017.9 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 42 mi53 min WNW 11 G 19 26°F 1017.8 hPa18°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 44 mi53 min NNW 8.9 G 12 26°F 35°F1017.5 hPa16°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 47 mi53 min NW 9.9 G 14 26°F 1017.4 hPa15°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 47 mi53 min WNW 13 G 17 26°F 33°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI4 mi28 minNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F14°F56%1018.3 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI19 mi28 minNW 510.00 miOvercast25°F16°F69%1018.6 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi29 minNNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy24°F13°F62%1020.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW7W7W6SW6SW4S4S4S3S4S5
G17
S5SE3S4SE7S6S4S6SE8S8S6S11
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2 days agoNW11
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NW9NW9
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NW8NW9NW8NW5NE5NE4NE4CalmE3CalmS5S7SW6W7W10SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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