Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM   Moonset 12:42 PM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 218 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 3 ft building to 4 ft Friday noon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 4.27 kt at 1217 pm Thursday. Seas 3 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 3.6 kt at 119 am Friday. Seas 3 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 4.33 kt at 127 pm Friday. Seas 4 ft.

PZZ200 218 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Weak high pressure over the water will give way to low pressure dropping down from the gulf of alaska, moving inland through Saturday. Front moves over the waters Friday morning through late Friday. Active weather persists through the weekend.

FXUS66 KPQR 022202 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 302 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions with partly sunny skies through this evening between systems. Heavier rain arrives Friday into Saturday, but we are not expecting any widespread hydrological concerns at this time. Cool, wet, unsettled weather likely continues through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM
Through Saturday Night...We are starting to see a few breaks of sunshine across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this afternoon as skies begin to partially clear from the north behind a departing shortwave trough exiting east of the Cascades. Short term guidance is hinting at a slight chance of thunderstorms over the south Washington Cascades through early this evening as a trailing disturbance clips the northern edge of the area, but for the most part expect any convective activity to remain north of the area. Expect the rest of the area to remain dry into Friday morning, with high level cloud cover starting to filter back into the region later this evening ahead of the next system dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska.

That next system is readily apparent on water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon as a developing low centered near 52N 144W. The low will continue to amplify as it digs southeastward to a position several hundred miles off the Oregon Coast by Friday evening, sending a surface front across the area Friday afternoon into early Saturday. The forecast remains on track with respect to expected rainfall amounts, which continue to look impressive by early May standards but are not expected to pose any widespread hydro concerns at this time. Underlying metrics have not changed much as IVT values briefly max out around 250-400 kg/ms Friday evening, with precipitable water values around 1 inch running two standard deviations above normal. The progressive nature and track of the system still look to be the saving grace for more widespread hydro issues as rain will transition to showers by Saturday afternoon as the low passes south towards the California border. All told, QPF amounts are still holding around 1-1.5 inches for the interior lowlands, and 1.5-2 inches for the coast and mountains from late Friday morning to Saturday afternoon, with HEFS probabilistic guidance still showing a less than 10 percent chance to reach action stage on all area rivers and less than a 5 percent chance on most of them. Snow levels will drop back to around 3000 feet as the colder air arrives on Saturday, bringing snow back to the Cascade passes. May need to consider another round of Winter Weather Advisories on Saturday as the event draws closer, with another 5-8 inches of snow looking possible from roughly Santiam Pass down through Willamette Pass through Saturday night. Finally, a few thunderstorms may be possible across the southern half of the area on Saturday afternoon as the upper low clips the area and colder air arrives aloft. /CB

LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday...Little change in the forecast through mid to late next week as WPC ensembles continue to depict upper level troughing keeping an active, cool, and showery pattern in place across the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday or Thursday. Still do not see any signals for particularly notable QPF in any one period beyond Saturday, but area rivers will likely continue to run high for this time of year as episodic bouts of rain continue across the region.
Temperatures will continue to run a bit below normal, with daytime highs struggling to get out of the 50s through Thursday.
The bulk of the model guidance does continue to hint at high pressure towards the end of next week, so there may be some light at the end of the tunnel for warmer and drier conditions returning beyond next Thursday. /CB

AVIATION
Weak high pressure builds over the Pacific this afternoon with low pressure to the south over the Oregon/California border. Cloud cover is spread over the region with a combination of VFR and MVFR CIGs . This stratus will thicken overnight as yet another front will move in after 12Z Friday. This front will bring amplified winds from the south so will see the strongest winds along the coast and the Willamette Valley. Winds will pick up along the front edge of the front after 18Z Friday, which will also coincide with precipitation. The precipitation will be quite strong during this time, and will impact visibility in locations with stronger winds. High probability for low stratus along the coast after 12Z Friday. Snow will continue along the Cascades.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
There is no estimated time of full repair and restoration for this location.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR with northerly winds this afternoon. The main concern is whether or not the clouds will lower overnight. Based on some model outputs, the dewpoint depression falls to near zero after 09Z Friday, while others keep conditions dry in the lower atmosphere. Cannot rule out low stratus though as there is a 30% chance of IFR CIGs and VIS after 12Z Friday. The next front arrives after 18Z Friday which will cause winds to be more variable in direction initially before locking onto a southerly flow. Will note that at 1000 ft, the southerly winds will initiate around 10Z before the surface transitions. Will then see those winds aloft become easterly. Wind speeds not significant enough for LLWS. -Muessle

MARINE
Weak high pressure over the waters will erode tonight as a strengthening low pressure system drops down from the Gulf of Alaska. This low is preceded by a cooler front which will cause winds to shift to the south. Winds along the coast will not be as high as the outer waters as they are not aligned directly to the coastline. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt range from 10-60 NM. The coastal waters will hover right around 20 kt. The north Oregon and central Oregon inner waters may still see isolated gusts up to 25 kt Friday afternoon. Due to a lack of widespread increased winds, have decided not to issue a small craft advisory for the inner waters. However, there remains a slight probability in the case the low tracks a little further north than currently project. Will add, that the rain will be quite heavy so visibility may be difficult at times. Seas will rise to around 6 to 8 ft at 12 to 14 seconds due to the amplified wind wave. Not expecting to exceed 10 ft. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ271>273.

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Knappa
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Thu -- 03:41 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:43 AM PDT     2.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:53 AM PDT     7.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:29 PM PDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:42 PM PDT     7.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

Settlers Point
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Thu -- 03:38 AM PDT     3.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:41 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:46 AM PDT     6.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:24 PM PDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:35 PM PDT     6.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Settlers Point, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

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