Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Skamokawa Valley, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 9:08PM Thursday July 2, 2020 1:18 AM PDT (08:18 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 2:19AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 220 Pm Pdt Wed Jul 1 2020
In the main channel.. - general seas...4 to 5 ft through early Thursday morning then easing to 2 to 4 ft Thursday afternoon. - first ebb...around 230 pm this afternoon. Seas to 5 ft. - second ebb...strong ebb around 3 am Thursday. Seas to 7 ft with breakers possible. - third ebb...around 330 pm Thursday. Seas to 5 ft.
PZZ200 220 Pm Pdt Wed Jul 1 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will reside over the waters for the next several days. Expect generally benign wind conditions beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skamokawa Valley, WA
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location: 46.27, -123.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 020353 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 852 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2020

Updated Aviation Discussion

SYNOPSIS. A persistent onshore flow will keep temperatures a little cooler than normal through Thursday. Weak disturbances will swing through the region, bringing areas of drizzle or light showers into Thursday, mostly to the coast and higher terrain. Weak high pressure at weeks end is likely to bring dry weather with more sun Friday through Sunday with temperatures returning to near normal.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Saturday . Upper shortwave associated with broad cyclonic flow aloft over southern British Columbia, along with persistent low level onshore flow and diurnal heating, will continue to drive light showers across the northern part of the forecast area through this evening. Areas in the southern Willamette Valley are likely to see more sun breaks as skies scatter later this afternoon. The onshore flow will continue into Thursday morning as a surface ridge of high pressure extends east across central Oregon, leaving areas to the north of the ridge axis within the westerly onshore flow. Late tonight into Thursday morning chances for drizzle will again resume as the marine air mass re-stabilizes. The upper low will shift further north while surface high pressure ridge also shifts northward with it, resulting in a drying northerly low level flow. Clouds are also expected to begin to break up from south to north during the day Thursday with only slight chance of showers developing along the northern Oregon coast and SW Washington.

By Friday models indicate the main trough axis will become oriented more from southern British Columbia southwest off the coast. This will leave the region under southwest flow aloft resulting in a slight warmer air mass with temperatures returning to near seasonal normals. Not much change in the overall pattern into Saturday. A few more clouds may be possible as upper trough shifts slightly eastward and a weak low pressure system continues to weaken off the coast of Vancouver Island. Temperatures for the fourth of July should remain rather pleasant reaching the upper 70s throughout the Valley and mid- 60s along the coast with plenty of sunshine. Westerly to northwesterly surface winds may become a bit breezy during the day with high pressure along the coast and thermally induced low pressure across eastern OR and WA. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be possible late afternoon and early evening, especially through the Columbia River Gorge. Overall forecast confidence is high in the drying and warming trend into the weekend. DDH

LONG TERM. Saturday night through Wednesday . The overall general pattern will remain similar Sunday into early next week. Cyclonic flow aloft with embedded shortwaves will continue over the Pacific Northwest with varied model details. Onshore low level flow is expected to keep local weather dry and near seasonable normals for early July, with areas of morning clouds mainly along the coast. Models generally show the upper trough deepening over the Pacific Northwest early next week but timing is still not well agreed upon. Will keep low chance of POP as a few showers, mainly along the mountains, will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Temperatures may also cool by a few degrees as a result but will likely anticipate rather pleasant weather to continue. DDH

AVIATION. An expansive upper level trough remains over the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies, with weakening low-level onshore flow that will persist over the forecast area through Thursday. VFR conditions expected to continue for most inland location through Thursday morning. However, there is a chance that some low-end VFR/high-end MVFR cigs could develop overnight within the Willamette Valley, but confidence is low.

MVFR cigs become more prevalent along the coast tonight and will persist through Thursday morning, there is the chance for brief periods of IFR vis that will be associated with -DZ through Thursday morning.

VFR conditions return to the central coast by late Thursday morning, but MVFR cigs expected to persist along the north Oregon and south Washington coast and coastal valleys into the early Thursday afternoon.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Cigs settle in the 3500 to 4500 tonight. High-end MVFR cigs could develop late tonight, but confidence is low. VFR to become dominate again between 18Z and 20Z Thursday, if MVFR cigs develop overnight. /42

MARINE. The 20Z buoy wind observations mesh well with the latest model guidance. Northwest wind to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt to continue through early Thu. Strongest speeds will be over PZZ270. Coastal water surface gradients will be rather weak beginning Thu afternoon and continuing into early next week. This will result in wind speeds generally 10 kt or less.

The main marine issue continues to be steep and choppy seas. The 20Z buoy reports showed 8-9 ft seas with a dominant period of 8-9 seconds. Thus, the current small craft advisory through 12Z Thu looks good. Overall wave heights start to diminish Thu with less wind wave component. In fact, seas fall to around 5 ft Thu night and remain at or below 5 ft into early next week. Models continue to show a low-amplitude long-period south swell becoming the dominant wave feature this weekend. Weishaar

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 17 mi48 min SW 6 G 9.9 56°F 64°F
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 29 mi48 min 63°F
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 36 mi52 min 58°F7 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 41 mi48 min W 7 G 9.9 56°F 58°F

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR24 mi23 minSW 510.00 miOvercast54°F53°F97%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:20 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM PDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:58 PM PDT     6.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM PDT     1.95 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:09 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.886.54.72.81.1-0.2-0.8-0.50.82.64.566.56.15.142.92.222.74.46.38

Tide / Current Tables for Harrington Point, Columbia River, Washington
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Harrington Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:20 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM PDT     -1.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:50 PM PDT     5.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:41 PM PDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:09 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.27.45.842.20.6-0.6-1.1-0.70.62.44.25.55.95.54.63.72.82.22.12.94.46.27.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.