Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Skamokawa Valley, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 4:27PM Monday December 9, 2019 6:58 AM PST (14:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:17PMMoonset 4:50AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 244 Am Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
In the main channel.. - general seas...seas 5 to 6 ft through early Tuesday. - first ebb...around 3 pm Monday, with seas near 8 ft. - second ebb...around 315 am Tuesday, with seas near 9 ft. - third ebb...strong ebb around 330 pm Tuesday, with seas near 11 ft.
PZZ200 244 Am Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres inland with low pres well offshore through Mon night. A series of fronts will reach the waters through at least mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skamokawa Valley, WA
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location: 46.27, -123.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 091056 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 255 AM PST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Dry today, but wet pattern resumes Tue, as a series of front line up to push into the Pac NW this week. More rain arrives later Wed, with rather wet Thu on tap. The wet unsettled weather continuing into next weekend, though there is some hints of drying later next weekend. Snow levels stay at or above pass levels.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday . Brief ridging over the region today, with dry weather on tap. However, still have considerable low clouds across much the region, with areas of morning fog. No fog advisories as visibility in the fog will generally be a half to 2 miles. Any dense fog will be rather spotty and localized. However, A different case for the Willamette Valley from Wilsonville southward through Eugene, as will see widespread fog with visibility below 1 mile. Will put up Dense Fog Advisory for Central and South WIllamette Valley, for areas of dense fog. But, will not issue any dense fog advisory for the interior from Portland northward, as the dense fog for those areas would be patchy and localized. Air mass will remain quite saturated for this morning, so any fog will be slow to thin.

Otherwise, mix of sun and clouds on top above the fog, with mild temperatures expected again today.

Next front will approach the region later tonight, with increasing mid and high clouds. Thicker clouds do not arrive until later tonight, so will be plenty of time for temperatures to cool and air mass to saturate, with areas of fog for the interior. Spotty rain should spread the coast late tonight, with rain spreading inland after daybreak Tue. System is getting stretched apart, so support for any decent rainfall is limited. Will keep PoPs somewhat elevated, but rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side. Remains of the front will gradually shift inland during the day, with rain becoming more spotty in nature by mid to late afternoon.

Brief break for Tue night into early Wed, as weak ridge passes over the region. But, the next front will be fast approaching from the west on Wed. At moment, have decided to go with a 60-40 blend of the GFS/NAM and ECMWF runs, which have timing differences with arrival of the rain. But, all seem to agree that rain will be increasing over the region late Wed afternoon into the evening. Will trend forecasts in that direction. /Rockey

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . A front will move into northwest Oregon and southwest Washington on Thursday bringing ample precipitation to the area. While it will predominately fall as rain, snow is expected along the Cascades. This front is well ahead of a broad low pressure system with the low centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska. As the low moves eastward, zonal flow will take over. This generally westerly flow will usher in colder air from the North Pacific which will cause temperatures to begin to fall slightly on Friday. Snow levels will follow suit dropping to near 3,500 ft Friday night. A weak shortwave and continuous cold air flow will bring low temperatures to the mid 30s through the Willamette Vally, and snow levels below 2,000 ft on Sunday.

At this point, models are in decent agreement with the overall synoptic pattern, but there is quite a bit of spread in the mesoscale features. The spread in solutions is leading to less confidence in the output after Friday. /Muessle

AVIATION. Conditions generally IFR to LIFR early this morning with more LIFR south of KUAO and better conditions to the north. From about KUAO north there is a cloud layer around 1000-1500 ft that has hindering fog from becoming dense. Model consensus shows significant improvement around 18Z and most areas becoming VFR around 21Z. Continued stable conditions this evening will bring a return of IFR conditions after 08Z. However with the upper ridge shifting east of the Cascades late tonight and early Tue, increasing clouds and southwest flow aloft will likely affect fog development. Also increasing east wind from the Gorge will likely keep KTTD and KPDX VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Will see IFR/LIFR conditions in the area improve 17-18Z with VFR likely shortly after. Increasing east wind will likely keep the area VFR through tonight, particularly KPDX eastward. /mh

MARINE. Another quiet day across the marine waters with light offshore flow with seas around 5 to 6 ft at 11 seconds. But this will change as a series of front will affect the waters through mid week. By Tue morning the first front to bring southerly wind gusts 25 kt, but then quickly fall back to the 15 kt. Seas will temporarily build to near 11 ft Tue afternoon.

Zonal westerly flow around a broad low pressure over the north Pacific is expected to increase seas to near 15 ft by Thu. While the low is not expected to advance towards the waters, a shortwave embedded in the flow around the low will. At this time, confidence in this system is not high as models are depicting seas a bit higher than what would generally be expected with this system. It is possible that seas will be increased as the event comes closer. /mh -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon Tuesday for much of the interior below 1500 feet elevation.

Dense Fog Advisory for central and south Willamette Valley until noon today.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon Tuesday for much of interior southwest Washington below 1500 feet elevation.

PZ . None.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 17 mi58 min N 1.9 G 4.1 44°F 46°F1022.8 hPa (+0.0)
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 29 mi64 min 46°F1023.8 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 36 mi58 min 49°F4 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 41 mi64 min ENE 8 G 8.9 48°F 47°F1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR24 mi63 minNE 40.25 miFog41°F41°F100%1022.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmW4W3W3SW4W5W5SW3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E5E3NE4
1 day agoNE3CalmN3CalmNE4NE5NE6NE6E4NE4NE5CalmCalmNW3N3CalmNW3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE5NE6E8E8E5CalmE5E5SE4NE4E3E7CalmCalmE3E4E9E5E4E3E3E4SE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:50 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:54 AM PST     2.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:29 AM PST     8.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:17 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:59 PM PST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.86.45.44.33.32.62.32.94.36.17.78.68.67.86.44.73.11.60.60.20.82.23.95.6

Tide / Current Tables for Harrington Point, Columbia River, Washington
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Harrington Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:50 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM PST     2.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:21 AM PST     8.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:17 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:53 PM PST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.25.8543.22.72.53.14.467.48.28.17.25.84.22.61.30.40.10.72.13.75.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.