Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ilwaco, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:55PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 5:56 PM PST (01:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:51PMMoonset 6:00AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 138 Pm Pst Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
In the main channel.. - general seas...mostly near 9 ft through this evening, then building to 11 ft overnight. Seas 12 ft Thu morning into the afternoon, and to 15 to 17 ft Thu afternoon. - first ebb...around 3 pm Wed, with seas to 11 feet. - second ebb...around 330 am Thu, with seas 12 feet. - third ebb...around 330 pm Thu. Seas near 17 feet with breakers.
PZZ200 138 Pm Pst Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres over the inland pac nw tonight. Fast moving cold front will sweep across the coastal later and inland Thu am. Rather cool and unstable air mass will be over the waters for Thu afternoon through Fri. High pres will build back across the coastal waters this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ilwaco, WA
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location: 46.3, -124.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 242353 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 352 PM PST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. The next Pacific system and associated front will bring valley rain and heavy mountain snow beginning tonight and persisting into at least Friday night. Precip should gradually diminish over the weekend with another break underneath ridging sometime Sunday- Monday, with the next chance for organized precip near the end of the 7-day forecast window.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Friday night . The brief break in tranquil weather this evening will rapidly come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight tonight as the next Pacific trof and associated front comes ashore. The initial frontal band of precip will bring heavy snow to the Cascades and rain to the Valleys, which will then be followed by an extended period of moist, cold onshore flow with lowering snow levels from Thursday afternoon through Friday night. While precipitation should become showery in most areas by this time tomorrow in the post-frontal regime, showers should be widespread, persistent, and moderate to heavy, especially in the Cascades, resulting in a prolonged period of accumulating snow. Latest short range model guidance suggests that snow levels will be a bit lower than previous forecasts, so we opted to broad brush a winter storm warning for the entire zones for the south WA and north OR Cascades, with emphasis that the heaviest totals (which could push 3 feet in some favored upslope areas by the time everything is finished) would be generally above 2500-3000 feet.

We also extended a winter storm watch southward into the Lane County Cascades, but opted to not upgrade to a warning at this time due to some uncertainty in both onset timing, and when the snow levels will lower sufficiently late Thursday to begin significant impacts at pass and ski area elevations. However, given the latest model and WPC consensus guidance, it is likely that we will eventually need a winter storm warning here as well. In fact, snow totals could end up being heavier here with a more prolonged period underneath the jet axis and stronger upslope flow, but the heaviest snow would likely be a bit later, falling Friday in to Friday night. Miller

LONG TERM. Saturday through Wednesday . Cold/moist onshore flow will be very slow to abate Saturday/Sunday, with likely some lingering showers well into the weekend. Thereafter, the forecast becomes quite low confidence as medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance agree on very little with large ensemble spread in just about every way possible. Therefore, we did not deviate at all from the consensus guidance as it will assuredly change multiple times over the coming days anyway. That said, we should have a short period of quieter weather beginning sometime over the weekend, perhaps lasting into early next week. The next chance of organized precip appears to be toward the end of the 7-day forecast window at this time. Miller

AVIATION. Mostly VFR under dry and stable air mass and northwest winds aloft. Do still have scattered to locally broken MVFR, mainly from Coast Mtn to the Cascades, but these clouds will dissipate through 02Z.

Next front approaching, with increasing high clouds this afternoon into the evening. Will have VFR rest of the day into tonight. But, CIGS gradually lowering tonight, with lower VFR to the coast by 08Z, and increasing MVFR along the coast after 10Z. VFR inland through 12Z even though CIGS gradually lowering, but will have increasing areas of MVFR CIGS after 15Z. Rain should arrive on the Washington and far north Oregon coast by 12Z Thu, with rain spreading inland quickly. Front will sweep inland later Thu am, with rain transitioning to showers, and southerly winds becoming more westerly. But, will likely see little change to flight conditions, with widespread MVFR through Thu am.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR through this evening. Increasing high clouds this evening, with CIGS gradually lowering after midnight. Still looks like rain arrives between 12Z and 14Z, along with increasing MVFR conditions. Front will push across OPs area around 18Z Thu, but MVFR will persist. /Rockey

MARINE. Conditions not that bad, considering time of the year. Winds have some variant of easterly winds, though touch northerly as move off the central Oregon coast. Seas mostly running 8 to 10 ft, with higher seas well offshore.

But, that all changes later tonight, as a fast moving front arrives. Winds will turn more southerly, and increase. But, generally, not all that impressive of low level flow. Will maintain current trend of southerly winds gusting up to 30 kt later tonight into Thu am with pre-frontal winds. Seas will build a bit, mostly up to 11 to 13 ft for late tonight into Thu am.

The front still expected to push across the coastal waters between 7 and 10 am Thu, with an abrupt change to more westerly winds. Decent post-frontal pressure gradients will support gusts to 30 kt. Winds just aloft will be stronger, and with more convective pattern on the waters for Thu afternoon through Fri, seems reasonable that this will allow for good mixing, enough to bring down some of the winds aloft to the surface. So, will upgrade the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the north waters, with gusts of 30 to 40 kt. Will maintain small craft Advisory for areas south of Cascade Head, as think most peak gusts stay closer to 30 kt.

But, more impactful will the fetch of west to northwest swell arriving later Thu afternoon and Thu night. Current models have been persistent in bringing 20 to 25 ft swell to the region Thu night, and holding into Fri. This, combined with the wind waves, will push combined seas Thu night and Fri to 21 to 27 ft, with the higher seas farther offshore. Seas and winds will gradually ease later Fri and Fri night.

A High Surf Advisory will eventually be needed Thu night through Fri, but want to see a bit more in model output for details along the coastline before making that decision. Will let next shift or two re-evaluate the trends and refine the forecast as needed.

Longer range indicates more quiet marine weather pattern for the coming weekend with building high pressure. The next front approaches the region later Mon, but this front is weakening and looks not to be much of a wind maker. /Rockey

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Thursday to midnight PST Friday night for Northern Oregon Cascades.

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for Cascades in Lane County.

WA . Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Thursday to midnight PST Friday night for South Washington Cascades.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until noon PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning from noon Thursday to noon PST Friday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon PST Friday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Friday for Columbia River Bar.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 8 mi30 min 45°F8 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 15 mi56 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 46°F 44°F1033.6 hPa (-1.3)
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 26 mi36 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 46°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 28 mi56 min W 5.1 G 6 44°F 47°F1033.9 hPa (-1.3)
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 35 mi60 min 47°F11 ft
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 40 mi30 min 47°F8 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 42 mi80 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 46°F1034.2 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR13 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair46°F32°F58%1033.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Ilwaco, Baker Bay, Wash., Columbia River, Washington
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Ilwaco
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:05 AM PST     3.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:35 AM PST     7.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:50 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:08 PM PST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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65.654.33.73.53.74.65.86.87.57.66.95.74.12.61.20.2-0.301.12.74.45.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Adams., Columbia River, Oregon
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Point Adams.
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:25 AM PST     3.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:59 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:23 AM PST     8.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:50 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:29 PM PST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.65.954.23.73.84.45.56.77.68.28.17.25.63.92.20.8000.82.23.85.46.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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