Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ilwaco, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:32PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 4:28 PM PDT (23:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:49PMMoonset 2:24PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 202 Pm Pdt Wed Aug 12 2020
In the main channel.. - general seas...2 to 3 ft through Thursday. - first ebb...around 1230 am Thursday. Seas near 5 ft. - second ebb...around 100 pm Thursday. Seas near 4 ft. - third ebb...around 130 am Friday. Seas near 5 ft.
PZZ200 202 Pm Pdt Wed Aug 12 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure over the northeast pacific continues for the next several days with varying degrees of thermal low pressure over the south oregon coast. This will maintain persistent northerly winds with periods of gusty afternoon and evening conditions. A southerly wind reversal appears likely on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ilwaco, WA
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location: 46.3, -124.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 122148 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 245 PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry and mild for next few days. Then, summer heat returns with a vengeance this weekend, with temperatures well into the 90s inland and 70s on the coast. Warm weather lingers into early next week, but will cool back a bit to typical August conditions.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Saturday . Weak cold front pushed across the region earlier today, leaving a cool air mass in its wake. Will see temperatures drop into the lower 50s tonight, with areas in the outlying and rural areas dropping into the 40s. Not out of the realm of possibilities that higher elevations valleys of the Cascades could see temperatures in the 30s late tonight.

After a cool start, will see rather mild day on Thursday, with highs back into the middle to upper 70s inland, and 60s on the coast.

High pressure will be building over the region through rest of the week. That, combined with return of northerly low level flow, will bring a warming trend. After another cool start, temperatures warm quickly on Friday, getting back into the 80s inland, and 60s to lower 70s along the coast.

Upper ridge over the western USA will contribute to pumping more southerly flow aloft into the region this weekend. That will bring much warmer conditions to the Pacific NW, with highs on Saturday well into the 90s for the interior, with a few spots reaching 100 deg. Most likely for the 100 deg heat would be around Hood River, and areas of the Willamette Valley from Salem southward. Even warm on the coast, with temperatures in the 70s to possibly lower 80s. Some potential could be warmer along the coast, but for now will have to see what local winds do, as a more easterly component would certainly allow boost into the middle to upper 80s. But, to coin a term in the West, it will be a dry heat, as humidity will be in the 18 to 30 pct range. May need a Heat Advisory for Sat and Sun, and perhaps Mon, but for now would like to wait a bit longer, and see if models continue with hot trend. If so, may issue such advisory Thu for hot conditions this weekend.

Interestingly, the pressure gradients across region will strengthen this weekend, as the ORCA low, or the thermal low over southwest Oregon and northwest California, builds and the high over the inland Pac NW build. This will result in breezy north to northeast winds over much of northwest Oregon on Saturday, especially on the coast and the Willamette Valley.

The hot, dry and breezy conditions expected this weekend will boost the potential for wildfires and spread. No fire weather watches yet, but may need one for the dry and breezy conditions if forecast trends continue. Will look more at this on Thu. For now, something to keep in mind when considering outdoor activities on Sat.

LONG TERM. Sat night through Wednesday . Twist of forecast challenges for Sat night into early Sunday. Model trends still show the remnants of hurricane Elida well off the northern Calif coast on Saturday. It will slowly drift northward Sat night into Sun as it gets caught by the south to southwesterly flow in advance of a larger upper trough well offshore. At this time, appears that most of the moisture stays offshore, keeping western Oregon and southwest Washington dry. But, would not be surprised to see a few showers and even a isolated thunderstorms over the coast and coastal mtns as the remains drift past the region. For now, will not put any in the forecast, but bears watching.

Should see a weak southerly wind reversal Sat night into Sun morning, which will eventually allow a little deeper of a marine layer and coastal clouds Sunday, but with little to no relief yet for inland areas Sunday. Therefore, we suspect inland highs Sunday will probably be similar to Saturday, leading to back-to-back hot days with little to no breeze for the interior. Have put in some minor PoPs (20 pct) for thunderstorms over the Cascades for Mon afternoon, as flow still somewhat favorable. But, that flow turns southwesterly later Sun night, with the convective potential shifting east of the Cascades. Models diverge in how they end this hot spell, so we stuck close to the NBM for high temps Mon/Tue, showing a gradual cooldown as the upper ridge slowly shifts eastward. Will need to keep an eye out for any shortwaves trying to ride up on the region on southerly flow, as there is a nonzero chance of convection as the upper ridge slowly breaks down early next week. /WeagleRock

AVIATION. VFR expected today and tonight with skies clearing through this evening and breezy northwest to north winds around 20 kt through around 05Z. Guidance continues to show some marine stratus redeveloping over the waters late tonight, with a few hours of MVFR cigs around 2500 ft possible over the north coast and along portions of the Lower Columbia River between 10-17Z. Widespread VFR returns by late Thursday morning.

KPDX and APPROACHES . Mainly VFR the next 24 hours with skies clearing through the day and breezy northwest winds through 04Z. A few hours of MVFR cigs in the vicinity remains possible after 12Z Thursday. /64

MARINE. High pressure over the northeast Pacific will continue for the next several days with varying degrees of thermal low pressure over the south Oregon coast. This will result in a persistent northerly wind pattern, with gusty winds likely during the afternoon and evening hours. The latest guidance continues to show pressure gradients becoming tight enough on Thursday to support a few hours of marginal advisory gusts around 20-25kt south of Newport. At this time don't think these gusts will be persistent enough to warrant an advisory. Gradients become tighter on Friday and Saturday with gusts to 30 kt likely. Winds look to then relax late Saturday, with a southerly wind reversal possible on Sunday.

Seas are currently around 4-6 ft this afternoon and remain in this range for the next several days. As the winds pick up on Friday and Saturday seas over our southern waters could build to around 6-7 ft and become steep at times. Otherwise, expect seas to remain in the 4-6 ft range through next week. /64

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . None.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 8 mi63 min 64°F4 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 15 mi59 min W 12 G 15 63°F 70°F1019.5 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 26 mi49 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 66°F1020.3 hPa
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 28 mi59 min W 12 G 14 61°F 64°F1019.9 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 35 mi63 min 65°F5 ft
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 40 mi63 min 57°F5 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 42 mi53 min WNW 9.9 G 11 59°F 57°F1020 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR13 mi34 minNNW 1110.00 miFair66°F48°F52%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW12NW8NW9NW7W4W5S3S3S3SE3SE3CalmCalmS3S33W44W74W9W10NW11
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2 days agoNW16
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Tide / Current Tables for Ilwaco, Baker Bay, Wash., Columbia River, Washington
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Ilwaco
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:18 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:39 AM PDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:42 AM PDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:02 PM PDT     2.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:24 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:03 PM PDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.61.21.11.52.33.13.84.34.44.13.63.12.72.62.83.44.55.56.26.56.25.54.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Adams., Columbia River, Oregon
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Point Adams.
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:18 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:00 AM PDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:30 AM PDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM PDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:23 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:51 PM PDT     7.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.61.31.52.233.94.5554.53.83.12.82.83.34.25.36.36.976.75.74.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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