Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 122046 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 346 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Surface high pressure over northern Minnesota this afternoon will keep conditions fairly quiet through Monday morning. Afternoon Cu will continue to percolate over the region. The radar scope is largely free of precipitation echoes, but a few light showers may develop during the next few hours. A few areas of fog may develop tonight, mainly over northwest Wisconsin and portions of the Arrowhead.

A warm front will lift northward across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday ushering in a rich moisture flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Deterministic and high-res models seem to suggest a chance for precipitation near the warm front during the morning and early afternoon. Remnant convective debris from overnight convection in northern High Plains may also help drive a few showers early in the day.

The main focus, however, will be the late afternoon hours through Tuesday morning. A surface low will move over the eastern Dakotas and lift toward northwest Ontario by Tuesday morning and will pull a cold front eastward out of the Dakotas and western Minnesota across the Northland. A moist and unstable airmass will be found over central and north-central Minnesota with PWATs over 1.7 inches and 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 knots is forecast and strong 850 mb moisture transport is expected. Thunderstorms will likely develop in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota during the afternoon and push into central and north-central Minnesota after 5 PM. Storms should initially be discrete with supercells likely. Over time the storms will congeal into one or more lines and progress eastward. The main threat from the storms will be large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain which may lead to localized flooding. Tornadoes cannot entirely be ruled out, but it appears the highest tornado threat will occur early in the event when storms are west of the Northland. As the storms push eastward, they will become elevated as the boundary layer decouples. Large hail, heavy rain, and damaging winds will continue to be the main threats overnight into the morning hours Tuesday.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning over portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead, I-35 corridor, and northwest Wisconsin. The cold front will still be located over central and northeast Minnesota. A few strong storms are possible during the morning. Deterministic and high-res models suggest another shortwave trough will move through the Northland during the late morning and afternoon hours. Storms may redevelop ahead of the cold front over northwest Wisconsin to near Hinckley and Pine City. Severe weather potential will likely be limited by convective debris over the area from the overnight storms. Should skies clear by late morning, sufficient destabilization will be possible to support severe storms during the afternoon. There are many caveats to the severe weather potential for Tuesday, and therefore, widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Wednesday through next Sunday will find the Northland in a progressive quasi-zonal flow pattern. There will be several chances of showers and thunderstorms during the period. Thursday afternoon and evening and Friday night through Saturday morning are the two best chances of storms as shortwave troughs propagate eastward across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will be quite warm with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1245 pm CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High pressure centered over northern Minnesota this afternoon will slowly drift toward northern Lower Michigan by 18Z Monday. Look for areas of VFR ceilings and light winds through today. A few sprinkles are possible, mainly over the Arrowhead. Visibility may dip to 4 or 5 miles in showers. Given the isolated coverage, have kept any mention out of the TAF for now. Will amend if showers develop. Patchy areas of fog possible once again tonight, mainly at HYR, HIB, and BRD. Winds will turn from the south on Monday and wind speeds will increase to around 10 knots.

MARINE. Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High pressure remained in place over northern Minnesota will gradually drift southeastward toward Lower Michigan by Monday afternoon. With the high pressure nearby condition should be quiet over western Lake Superior today through Monday afternoon. Winds will be southerly this evening at 3 to 8 knots. An area of low pressure will develop in the western Dakotas Monday and will push northeastward into Ontario by midday Tuesday. The low will be accompanied by a cold front which will touch off thunderstorms in the Dakotas Monday afternoon. The storms will move eastward over Lake Superior Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Winds over the lake will be from the northeast ahead of the front Monday at 5 to 15 knots. The storms will bring a potential for large hail, gusty winds, and torrential rainfall. Another round of thunderstorms is forecast late Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Some of those storms may also be strong.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 57 80 62 76 / 10 10 90 60 INL 59 83 58 77 / 10 30 80 20 BRD 60 84 63 76 / 0 20 90 40 HYR 56 84 64 76 / 10 0 80 80 ASX 57 85 64 78 / 10 0 80 80

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. LS . None.

SHORT TERM . Huyck LONG TERM . Huyck AVIATION . Huyck MARINE . Huyck

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN	6 mi	49 min	NNE 1.9 G 2.9	76°F	64°F		1013.2 hPa	58°F
PKBW3	7 mi	157 min	SSE 1.9	77°F			1015 hPa (-1.0)	56°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI	34 mi	57 min	N 1 G 4.1	76°F			1013.5 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN	55 mi	57 min	SSW 7 G 8	67°F			1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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NE2

N4 G8

N5 G8

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N5 G9

N3 G6

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N3 G6

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1 day ago

NW8 G12

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NW5 G12

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N6 G9

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2 days ago

SW7 G10

SW6 G10

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W8 G11

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W2

NW9 G13

NW11

NW10 G15

NW14 G18

NW11 G17

NW10 G14

NW6 G17

NW8 G11

W6 G11

NW11 G16

NW6 G11

NW9 G15

NW11 G14

NW11 G17

W14

NW7 G11

W9 G12

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN	2 mi	41 min	E 3	10.00 mi	Fair	79°F	59°F	51%	1013.5 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI	5 mi	42 min	SE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	77°F	57°F	50%	1013.5 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN	13 mi	42 min	SE 6	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	74°F	55°F	52%	1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDYT

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)

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N10

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1 day ago

W9

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S7

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NW11 G14

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W12

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN

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