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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI

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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231134 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 534 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

DISCUSSION. (Today through Friday) Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Snow will develop across the Northland later this afternoon into tonight. For most areas, the accumulating snow will occur tonight. A prolonged period of lake effect snow will be possible Sunday through much of next week with areas from the Twin Ports and the North Shore getting in on the chances as well.

Widespread clouds and areas of flurries were occurring across the region this morning. Cold air was still in place, despite warm air advection, making it relatively easy to produce the flurries. A weak shortwave was also moving across far northern Minnesota. The shortwave will move east by 15Z with warm air advection continuing. Low level winds will become southerly today and we expect some lake effect snow to develop along portions of the North Shore, mainly along southern Cook County. The snow there today should be light but accumulations around an inch will be possible by early evening. Snow elsewhere will take longer to develop but it should arrive in our southwest area later this afternoon with snow becoming widespread tonight across all areas. An elongated area of low pressure with centers north of the International Border and well south will aid in producing lift along with the warm air advection and an upper trough. We decreased the QPF slightly with this update but the general forecast remains on track. Forecast soundings have warmed slightly with less of the lower to mid moist layer in the max dendritic growth zone compared to 24 hours ago. This gives lower confidence in the higher snow totals. We have amounts from 1 to 4 inches across the Northland with slightly higher amounts in southern Cook County due to lake processes. We issued a Winter Weather Advisory for southern Cook County but left the rest of the area out for now. The other area that will have to be watched for a possible advisory is from Pine County east through Price County. However, confidence in amounts exceeding 3 inches is not very high.

The snow will diminish from west to east late tonight into Sunday morning. By afternoon, little snowfall is expected.

High pressure will build into the region Sunday night and temperatures are expected to drop well below zero over northern Minnesota. The high will be north of the International Border and will cause a prolonged period of east/northeast low level winds Monday into much of next week. 850MB temperatures will be from -9C to -12C through the week and lake effect snow will be possible from the South Shore to the Twin Ports and North Shore. Lake effect snow chances will be confined to the South Shore Sunday and Sunday night but accumulation will be limited by dry air. Snow accumulations will be possible through the week due to the persistent onshore flow, including in the Twin Ports and North Shore. Some limiting factors will be low level anti-cyclonic flow, dry air at times, and lack of upper support. However, favorable delta-T values and a long fetch will support at least some accumulation. The GFS and NAM for what it's worth are not very bullish on QPF but that's not too surprising given their resolution. Once we get into the window where the higher resolution models are available we will gain confidence on snow amounts. Most other areas further inland will see little precipitation through the week.

Temperatures today will be rise to 20 to 25 then cool Sunday into Monday, especially over northern Minnesota. Temperatures will then moderate through the week reaching the mid twenties to lower thirties by Friday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 534 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

MVFR or low VFR ceilings covered the Northland early this morning with flurries or areas of light snow. The snow will drop the visibility to 2 to 6 miles at times, mainly this morning. Ceilings may improve for a time today but persistent warm air advection and an area of low pressure will cause ceilings to lower again later this afternoon into tonight. Light to moderate snow will also increase again late today into tonight. Most areas will see snowfall amounts from 1 to 3 inches with higher amounts possible along portions of the North Shore and from around Hinckley toward Phillips and Park Falls. IFR conditions will be likely for a time tonight as the area of snow moves through the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DLH 22 13 19 -2 / 20 100 10 0 INL 24 2 9 -12 / 20 100 20 0 BRD 23 9 17 -3 / 80 100 0 0 HYR 21 14 23 1 / 30 100 20 0 ASX 24 15 25 4 / 10 90 30 10

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM CST Sunday for MNZ021.

LS . None.

DISCUSSION . Melde AVIATION . Melde

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN	6 mi	69 min	SW 11 G 15	20°F			1023.1 hPa	12°F
PKBW3	7 mi	117 min	SW 5.1	18°F			1024 hPa (+0.0)	11°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI	34 mi	77 min	S 8 G 11	18°F			1023.7 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN	55 mi	77 min	WSW 12 G 14	20°F			1023 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN

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W25 G32

NW13 G27

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN	2 mi	62 min	SW 14 G 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	19°F	10°F	68%	1023.7 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI	5 mi	62 min	SW 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	20°F	11°F	68%	1023.7 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN	13 mi	62 min	SSW 15 G 21	9.00 mi	Light Snow	17°F	10°F	74%	1024.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDYT

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)

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SW16 G22

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W17 G21

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W24 G36

NW21 G28

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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