Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aberdeen, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:07PM Friday January 24, 2020 9:27 AM PST (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:01AMMoonset 4:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 856 Am Pst Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight... Combined seas 10 to 12 feet. Bar conditions rough. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 415 pm today and 445 am Saturday. The afternoon ebb will be strong.
PZZ100 856 Am Pst Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A front is moving inland and another front will reach the area tonight and Saturday morning. A stronger front and low pressure system will arrive early on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aberdeen, WA
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location: 46.97, -123.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 241635 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 835 AM PST Fri Jan 24 2020

UPDATE. Upper level trough moving onshore this morning with scattered showers across the region for something of a respite from the steady rain of recent days. The next system moves onshore late tonight into Saturday morning for another round of rain before another minuscule break Saturday evening. Sunday's frontal system still looks reasonably potent for rainy, blustery conditions to close the weekend. An active pattern remains beyond that and no forecast updates are expected this morning. Aviation, marine, and hydrology sections are updated below. 27

SYNOPSIS. Active weather will continue over the next week as a series of weather systems move across the area.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Current radar and satellite clearly show negatively tilted front moving through W WA this morning with rainfall tapering off over southwestern portions of the CWA As this front continues to lift northeastward. could start to see some locations emerge with dry conditions However. looking westward on current IR satellite shows some clouds starting to develop within the approaching upper level trough As such. model progs look to be on track with showers developing in the wake of this passing front as this upper trough starts to push into the area with ample low level moisture to work with. As this activity transitions into showers . models remain consistent that overall action will trend downward throughout the day. This will help in getting current hydro situation to behave. For further details on that . please refer to the Hydrology section below. Will see snow levels gradually fall through the day but are expected to remain above 4000 ft for most locations. Portions of the North Cascades will fall between 3500-4000 ft and as such some snow accumulations will be possible there . but none that would require any headlines at this time.

Next frontal system looks to make it to the coast very late tonight/very early Saturday morning bringing a quick shot of rain that starts wrapping up by early afternoon. As has been the case throughout this active period . the brief respites in the squishiness are measured more in hours than days . and sure enough by Saturday evening a surface low creeps up the coast from OR to bring yet another batch of rain . but with the potential for some winds this time as well. Models still waffling a bit on wind speeds associated with this system . as previous model runs looked stronger . but feel safe in saying probably breezy to locally windy conditions for the usual wind favored locations such as the coast and north interior. Unless some consistency starts to emerge . pretty low confidence on if these winds will spread to other portions of the CWA. This surface low pushes north of the area by late Sunday morning. A narrow window of diminished shower activity or even possibly dry conditions exists thereafter but models disagree as to how long. The GFS does not bring in the next front until Sunday evening and thus providing a quiet 6-9 hour window while the ECMWF suggests that if there is any break . if one were to blink they would miss it before the next front comes in Sunday afternoon. More inclined to lean toward the ECMWF solution if for no other reason than that a mere 6-9 hour break just seems patronizing. 18

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The aforementioned front starts to dissipate by late Monday morning but deterministic models paint two very different pictures of the next system. The GFS brings the next front up from OR and lifts it into W WA Monday night and brings the associated upper level low in hot on the heels of said front . making for wet conditions persisting into Tuesday evening. The ECMWF actually keeps the worst of the precip down in OR and while the area still sees precip . it wraps up by Tuesday afternoon. Given this initial discrepancy . while models fall a bit more in line with the general pattern . a brief upper level ridge moving quickly through the area shockingly followed by yet another frontal system . the timing is off Ultimately. probably better off just saying that the extended looks to remain active with the current essentially wet pattern persisting for the remainder of the forecast period. 18

AVIATION. Southwest flow aloft with moist air and plenty of showers on radar this morning. Areas of lower cigs in the showers, mountains and foothills obscured. Another wave of moisture arrives overnight through midday Saturday and the showers will merge back to a more general rain.

KSEA . The precip is a bit more showery today, but it will be back to a period of rain as another front reaches the area tonight and Saturday morning. Southerly breeze continues.

MARINE. There is a relative break between fronts today, although small craft advisories continue. A fairly disorganized front reaches the area later tonight and drags through the area slowly Saturday morning. A stronger front with a surface low will likely reach Western Washington late Saturday night--The 12z GFS has a 993mb surface low center about 50nm west of Destruction Island at 4am Sunday so that ought to give most of the waters a quick surge of full gales.

HYDROLOGY. Hydrologically significant precipitation has largely ended as steady rains have transitioned to showers. Snow levels have also begun to fall and should come down to 4000-4500 feet today.

Two rivers are currently flooding - the Satsop and the Skokomish. They have recently crested and will be gradually receding today but flooding will continue for awhile.

A few other rivers flowing off the Cascades, such as the Nooksack and the Chehalis, are still rising and could reach flood stage later today or tonight.

The weather pattern will remain wet into next week as a series of weather systems cross the area. Rivers will continue to run high and there is the possibility of additional river flooding some time later next week.

Lastly, an elevated threat of landslides will continue today due to the recent heavy rains and saturated soils.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM PST Saturday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 14 mi52 min 48°F 49°F1011.7 hPa
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 19 mi64 min SW 14 G 20 50°F 49°F1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Westport, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA6 mi35 minSW 2210.00 miOvercast and Breezy50°F48°F96%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Aberdeen, Washington
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Aberdeen
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:18 AM PST     9.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM PST     4.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:30 PM PST     11.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:44 PM PST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:58 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:05 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:15 PM PST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.19.99.78.97.55.84.54.55.67.28.910.411.311.310.38.66.43.81.30.10.41.83.86

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:07 AM PST     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:46 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:01 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:05 AM PST     1.80 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:32 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:44 PM PST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:17 PM PST     -3.83 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:59 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:07 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:49 PM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:14 PM PST     2.51 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.70.4-0.7-1.6-2-1.7-0.80.21.11.61.81.60.8-0.7-2.2-3.2-3.8-3.6-2.6-1.10.21.42.12.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.