Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ronald, WA
May 2, 2024 1:33 PM PDT (20:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM Moonset 12:30 PM |
PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 238 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight - N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri - S wind to 10 kt rising to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night - SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Sat - W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night - S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun - S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Mon - SW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 238 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A low pressure system offshore will continue to move southeast and push into oregon Thursday morning. Weak high pressure will then rebuild over the waters before the next system moves into the area waters Friday into Saturday. Another system will move across the area waters late in the weekend into early next week.
Area Discussion for - Pendleton, OR
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FXUS66 KPDT 021757 AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1057 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
AVIATION
18Z TAFS...VFR conditions during this period with currently cloudy skies (5-25 kft), except for KYKM having clear skies. However, cloud coverage will decrease for most sites tonight into Friday morning, excluding KYKM where it will increase.
Confidence was very low (10-15%) at first to include wind gusts for KRDM/KBDN, but due to the surface pressure gradient weakening as the low passes, confidence level rose higher for that possibility (70%).
Winds will be less than 10kts. Feaster/97
UPDATE
Upper trough moving across Oregon and southern Washington is spreading mainly rain and some high elevation snow over Oregon and extreme southern Washington this morning. Based on the SPC HRRR the precipitation shield will move to the eastern mountains through the day before tapering off this evening. SPC has the eastern mountains in the general thunderstorm outlook for today. Parameters look very weak for thunderstorm development this afternoon. SPC 4-hour calibrated probability of thunder in the aforementioned area is 10% or less. With this in mind will not be adding thunderstorms to the forecast for the morning update. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for the East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades until 11 AM this morning. Latest road camera photo from Santiam Pass shows at least a few inches of roadside snow but the roads are just wet with an air temperature of 34 degrees. Likewise Hogg Pass Snotel is estimating 4 inches of snow since yesterday evening. Will continue to monitor trends over the next couple of hours to determine if the advisory can be allowed to expire as scheduled. For this update made some slight adjustments to the gridded forecast for late this morning into the afternoon but overall the current forecast is on track for today.
78
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 427 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024/
SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday
The region is under a northwest flow with a shortwave passing over the forecast area this morning then exiting into Idaho late this afternoon and evening.
Most of the precipitation (.10-.20") associated with this shortwave will be confined to central Oregon which tapers off to showers in the afternoon then ending in the evening. Snow levels will be 4000 to 5000 feet with the Oregon Cascade crest and passes most likely to be impacted by some snow accumulations for which a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 11am.
The departing system will be replaced by a weak ridge of high pressure overnight and into Friday but then moves off to the east as a deep closed low in the Gulf of Alaska takes up position off the PacNW coast. This will begin to spread precipitation into the Cascades Friday afternoon and then slowly across the western portion of the forecast area overnight under a moist southerly flow with snow levels around 6000 feet. The center of the low settles over SW Oregon late Saturday providing a continued very moisture laden S-SE flow across the forecast area. Saturday night the low center moves east along the southern Oregon border with the continued moisture wrapping around the low coming from Idaho back into the forecast area. Overall models are showing that this system will provide most of the forecast area with some substantial precipitation amounts on the order of half an inch to an inch with some locally higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches over the mountains. This in turn will cause area streams and rivers to rises over the weekend with some expected to approach bankfull Sunday and Monday. Snow levels over southern and central Oregon will lower Saturday night to 3500 to 4500 feet but remain 5000 to 6000 feet over the rest of the forecast area.
LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday
Key Messages:
1. Some rivers are forecast to approach or reach into action stage.
2. Breezy winds Sunday through Tuesday.
3. Thunderstorm potential Monday and Tuesday.
The extended period is characterized by a slow moving upper level low pressure departing our region early in the workweek, ahead of a couple shortwaves passing through the area embedded in northwest flow aloft. These synoptic features will keep daily precipitation chances in the forecast for much of the region as afternoon snow levels drop from 5000-6000 feet on Sunday to 4000-5000 feet Monday onward. Temperatures will also stay below normal for this time of year, as the coolest day will occur on Sunday following a slow warm up through the remainder of the week. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to range from the upper 40s across Central Oregon into the mid-50s to low 60s for lower elevations of the Basin and through Yakima/Kittitas Valleys.
The persistent weekend rainfall associated with a deep, slow moving upper level low will lead to rises on area rivers. The ECWMF EFI suggests not only an above normal precipitation event for this time of year, but a rather significant event due to a 1-2 shift of tails (SOT) highlighting areas across the Basin and along the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains. Current river forecasts project that the Naches River near Cliffdell and John Day River at Service Creek will reach into action stage during the early morning hours on Sunday and late Monday respectively. Other river reaches that look to approach action stage via the Northwest River Forecast Center's current forecast include the Naches River near Naches Sunday morning, Umatilla River near Gibbon Sunday afternoon, Yakima River at Umtanum Sunday afternoon, Grande Ronde River at Troy late Sunday, and Imnaha River at Imnaha early Monday. There does exist some uncertainty as there is 53% variance with ensembles regarding the depth of the slowly tracking upper level low as 53% of ensemble members show a slower progression and slightly more southerly track.
However, the most south solution only amounts to 28% of ensemble members, which is the only solution that suggests a slightly drier forecast than the NBM. Probabilities of 0.20 of an inch of rainfall on Sunday via the NBM range from a 25% chance in the Tri-Cities area, to a 40-60% chance along the northern Blue Mountain foothills, to a 70-80% chance over the northern Blue Mountains and Elkhorns on Sunday. These rain amounts may lead to localized flooding and will continue to be monitored as the event nears.
A transient upper level ridge will sneak onshore in the wake of the slowly departing upper low pressure to allow a pressure gradient to develop along the Cascades, producing breezy winds through the Simcoe Highlands, northern Blue Mountain foothills, Eastern Gorge, and the Kittitas Valley late Sunday afternoon through the evening.
Wind gusts of 30-40 mph out of the west will be possible across the aforementioned areas. Confidence in these values is moderate to high (60-80%) as the GFS showcases a 10.5mb pressure gradient between Portland and Spokane setting up Sunday evening, which is shy of the advisory threshold of 12mb - but significant. The NBM also highlights an 85-100% chance of wind gusts reaching 39 mph or greater across the earlier mentioned areas, with the highest chances residing over the Simcoe Highlands. When bumping up to 47 mph or greater, the probabilities drop to 75-90%. These values near advisory criteria, which will also be further analyzed as additional short-term guidance becomes available (SREF/NAM). A passing cold front associated with a dropping upper level shortwave on Monday will again elevate winds across the Basin, Simcoe Highlands, and the Kittitas/Yakima Valleys, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible out of the west. Another transient upper level ridge attempts to build in from offshore in the wake of the departing shortwave on Tuesday, allowing another pressure gradient to develop along the Cascades. The GFS shows a more substantial pressure difference between Portland and Spokane of around 12.4mb Tuesday afternoon/evening, which is above the earlier mentioned 12mb advisory threshold. However, this is due to a weaker shortwave and resulting stronger and more efficient infiltration of the transient ridge (ie. stronger gradient setting up along the Cascades). This solution is not currently favored, and only represents 23% of all members, with half of those members being that of the GFS.
The passing cold front on Monday and shortwave on Tuesday will allow for instability to be present, as these features are bookended by transient ridging. Guidance currently suggests surface CAPE of 50- 100 j/kg each day primarily along the John-Day Basin and the northern Blue Mountains and foothills. Monday currently looks to be the more favorable day as the transient ridge is eroded by the incoming shortwave and associated cold front. The NBM highlights a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms over the aforementioned areas Monday afternoon, dropping to a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. These forcings elude to the presence of discrete storms cells forming as temperatures peak in the late afternoon, but these values are lacking as also indicated by the absence in any Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook product. Thus, there is low to moderate confidence (30-50%) in thunderstorms developing either day, with a low chance (10%) of any exhibiting severe characteristics. 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 61 35 71 47 / 20 0 0 10 ALW 66 41 74 53 / 20 0 0 10 PSC 69 43 74 53 / 20 0 0 10 YKM 67 38 69 46 / 10 0 0 60 HRI 68 39 76 49 / 20 0 0 20 ELN 65 37 66 45 / 10 0 0 50 RDM 52 30 63 41 / 90 0 10 90 LGD 55 30 65 47 / 50 20 0 10 GCD 52 32 63 45 / 90 30 0 40 DLS 66 42 71 49 / 70 0 10 80
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ509.
WA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1057 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
AVIATION
18Z TAFS...VFR conditions during this period with currently cloudy skies (5-25 kft), except for KYKM having clear skies. However, cloud coverage will decrease for most sites tonight into Friday morning, excluding KYKM where it will increase.
Confidence was very low (10-15%) at first to include wind gusts for KRDM/KBDN, but due to the surface pressure gradient weakening as the low passes, confidence level rose higher for that possibility (70%).
Winds will be less than 10kts. Feaster/97
UPDATE
Upper trough moving across Oregon and southern Washington is spreading mainly rain and some high elevation snow over Oregon and extreme southern Washington this morning. Based on the SPC HRRR the precipitation shield will move to the eastern mountains through the day before tapering off this evening. SPC has the eastern mountains in the general thunderstorm outlook for today. Parameters look very weak for thunderstorm development this afternoon. SPC 4-hour calibrated probability of thunder in the aforementioned area is 10% or less. With this in mind will not be adding thunderstorms to the forecast for the morning update. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for the East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades until 11 AM this morning. Latest road camera photo from Santiam Pass shows at least a few inches of roadside snow but the roads are just wet with an air temperature of 34 degrees. Likewise Hogg Pass Snotel is estimating 4 inches of snow since yesterday evening. Will continue to monitor trends over the next couple of hours to determine if the advisory can be allowed to expire as scheduled. For this update made some slight adjustments to the gridded forecast for late this morning into the afternoon but overall the current forecast is on track for today.
78
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 427 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024/
SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday
The region is under a northwest flow with a shortwave passing over the forecast area this morning then exiting into Idaho late this afternoon and evening.
Most of the precipitation (.10-.20") associated with this shortwave will be confined to central Oregon which tapers off to showers in the afternoon then ending in the evening. Snow levels will be 4000 to 5000 feet with the Oregon Cascade crest and passes most likely to be impacted by some snow accumulations for which a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 11am.
The departing system will be replaced by a weak ridge of high pressure overnight and into Friday but then moves off to the east as a deep closed low in the Gulf of Alaska takes up position off the PacNW coast. This will begin to spread precipitation into the Cascades Friday afternoon and then slowly across the western portion of the forecast area overnight under a moist southerly flow with snow levels around 6000 feet. The center of the low settles over SW Oregon late Saturday providing a continued very moisture laden S-SE flow across the forecast area. Saturday night the low center moves east along the southern Oregon border with the continued moisture wrapping around the low coming from Idaho back into the forecast area. Overall models are showing that this system will provide most of the forecast area with some substantial precipitation amounts on the order of half an inch to an inch with some locally higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches over the mountains. This in turn will cause area streams and rivers to rises over the weekend with some expected to approach bankfull Sunday and Monday. Snow levels over southern and central Oregon will lower Saturday night to 3500 to 4500 feet but remain 5000 to 6000 feet over the rest of the forecast area.
LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday
Key Messages:
1. Some rivers are forecast to approach or reach into action stage.
2. Breezy winds Sunday through Tuesday.
3. Thunderstorm potential Monday and Tuesday.
The extended period is characterized by a slow moving upper level low pressure departing our region early in the workweek, ahead of a couple shortwaves passing through the area embedded in northwest flow aloft. These synoptic features will keep daily precipitation chances in the forecast for much of the region as afternoon snow levels drop from 5000-6000 feet on Sunday to 4000-5000 feet Monday onward. Temperatures will also stay below normal for this time of year, as the coolest day will occur on Sunday following a slow warm up through the remainder of the week. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to range from the upper 40s across Central Oregon into the mid-50s to low 60s for lower elevations of the Basin and through Yakima/Kittitas Valleys.
The persistent weekend rainfall associated with a deep, slow moving upper level low will lead to rises on area rivers. The ECWMF EFI suggests not only an above normal precipitation event for this time of year, but a rather significant event due to a 1-2 shift of tails (SOT) highlighting areas across the Basin and along the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains. Current river forecasts project that the Naches River near Cliffdell and John Day River at Service Creek will reach into action stage during the early morning hours on Sunday and late Monday respectively. Other river reaches that look to approach action stage via the Northwest River Forecast Center's current forecast include the Naches River near Naches Sunday morning, Umatilla River near Gibbon Sunday afternoon, Yakima River at Umtanum Sunday afternoon, Grande Ronde River at Troy late Sunday, and Imnaha River at Imnaha early Monday. There does exist some uncertainty as there is 53% variance with ensembles regarding the depth of the slowly tracking upper level low as 53% of ensemble members show a slower progression and slightly more southerly track.
However, the most south solution only amounts to 28% of ensemble members, which is the only solution that suggests a slightly drier forecast than the NBM. Probabilities of 0.20 of an inch of rainfall on Sunday via the NBM range from a 25% chance in the Tri-Cities area, to a 40-60% chance along the northern Blue Mountain foothills, to a 70-80% chance over the northern Blue Mountains and Elkhorns on Sunday. These rain amounts may lead to localized flooding and will continue to be monitored as the event nears.
A transient upper level ridge will sneak onshore in the wake of the slowly departing upper low pressure to allow a pressure gradient to develop along the Cascades, producing breezy winds through the Simcoe Highlands, northern Blue Mountain foothills, Eastern Gorge, and the Kittitas Valley late Sunday afternoon through the evening.
Wind gusts of 30-40 mph out of the west will be possible across the aforementioned areas. Confidence in these values is moderate to high (60-80%) as the GFS showcases a 10.5mb pressure gradient between Portland and Spokane setting up Sunday evening, which is shy of the advisory threshold of 12mb - but significant. The NBM also highlights an 85-100% chance of wind gusts reaching 39 mph or greater across the earlier mentioned areas, with the highest chances residing over the Simcoe Highlands. When bumping up to 47 mph or greater, the probabilities drop to 75-90%. These values near advisory criteria, which will also be further analyzed as additional short-term guidance becomes available (SREF/NAM). A passing cold front associated with a dropping upper level shortwave on Monday will again elevate winds across the Basin, Simcoe Highlands, and the Kittitas/Yakima Valleys, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible out of the west. Another transient upper level ridge attempts to build in from offshore in the wake of the departing shortwave on Tuesday, allowing another pressure gradient to develop along the Cascades. The GFS shows a more substantial pressure difference between Portland and Spokane of around 12.4mb Tuesday afternoon/evening, which is above the earlier mentioned 12mb advisory threshold. However, this is due to a weaker shortwave and resulting stronger and more efficient infiltration of the transient ridge (ie. stronger gradient setting up along the Cascades). This solution is not currently favored, and only represents 23% of all members, with half of those members being that of the GFS.
The passing cold front on Monday and shortwave on Tuesday will allow for instability to be present, as these features are bookended by transient ridging. Guidance currently suggests surface CAPE of 50- 100 j/kg each day primarily along the John-Day Basin and the northern Blue Mountains and foothills. Monday currently looks to be the more favorable day as the transient ridge is eroded by the incoming shortwave and associated cold front. The NBM highlights a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms over the aforementioned areas Monday afternoon, dropping to a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. These forcings elude to the presence of discrete storms cells forming as temperatures peak in the late afternoon, but these values are lacking as also indicated by the absence in any Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook product. Thus, there is low to moderate confidence (30-50%) in thunderstorms developing either day, with a low chance (10%) of any exhibiting severe characteristics. 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 61 35 71 47 / 20 0 0 10 ALW 66 41 74 53 / 20 0 0 10 PSC 69 43 74 53 / 20 0 0 10 YKM 67 38 69 46 / 10 0 0 60 HRI 68 39 76 49 / 20 0 0 20 ELN 65 37 66 45 / 10 0 0 50 RDM 52 30 63 41 / 90 0 10 90 LGD 55 30 65 47 / 50 20 0 10 GCD 52 32 63 45 / 90 30 0 40 DLS 66 42 71 49 / 70 0 10 80
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ509.
WA...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA | 71 mi | 46 min | N 11G | 54°F | ||||
| TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA | 71 mi | 46 min | 50°F | 30.07 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Des Moines
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:18 AM PDT 11.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:39 AM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM PDT 6.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:47 AM PDT 8.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:41 PM PDT 0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:18 AM PDT 11.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:39 AM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM PDT 6.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:47 AM PDT 8.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:41 PM PDT 0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Des Moines, Washington, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 11.2 |
| 1 am |
| 11.9 |
| 2 am |
| 11.7 |
| 3 am |
| 10.9 |
| 4 am |
| 9.6 |
| 5 am |
| 8.2 |
| 6 am |
| 7 |
| 7 am |
| 6.3 |
| 8 am |
| 6.3 |
| 9 am |
| 6.7 |
| 10 am |
| 7.4 |
| 11 am |
| 8 |
| 12 pm |
| 8.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 7.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 6.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 8 |
Duwamish Waterway
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:14 AM PDT 11.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:40 AM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:49 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM PDT 5.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:43 AM PDT 7.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:44 PM PDT 0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:14 AM PDT 11.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:40 AM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:49 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM PDT 5.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:43 AM PDT 7.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:44 PM PDT 0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Duwamish Waterway, Washington, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 10.6 |
| 1 am |
| 11.2 |
| 2 am |
| 11 |
| 3 am |
| 10.2 |
| 4 am |
| 9 |
| 5 am |
| 7.7 |
| 6 am |
| 6.6 |
| 7 am |
| 6 |
| 8 am |
| 5.9 |
| 9 am |
| 6.3 |
| 10 am |
| 7 |
| 11 am |
| 7.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 7.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 7.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 6.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 5 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 7.6 |
Seattle/Tacoma, WA,
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