Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 1:04 AM   Moonset 8:40 AM

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FXUS63 KFGF 291500 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1000 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple systems will bring periods of rain to the region today through the entire week.

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Still getting a few reports of light snow across our northern counties, and some snow showing up in the grassy areas on the web cams. However, no impacts as surface temperatures have remained warm and even elevated surfaces have melted off. There has been some more rain moving into west central MN with the secondary shortwave. In between the northern and southern areas of precip, there continues to be some drizzle and light BR at many locations. Bumped up POPs a bit and included drizzle mention as the double upper low kicks out of the CWA throughout the day today.

UPDATE Issued at 554 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The first band of rain is starting to push north of the highway 2 corridor. Webcams and surface observations show some wet snow mixing in mainly from Langdon to Cando to Rugby. A few other observation points, like Bemidji, have also briefly reported a mix, but that has been about it. Otherwise the second band has been moving into the southern Red River Valley and adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, but it has been weakening as it lifts north. Think it will maintain itself into the day, but mainly along and east of the Valley.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The regional radar loop shows the first band of rainfall lifting north-northwest through the FA, but mainly north of the highway 200 corridor. Then there is a second little area approaching the southern FA. In between these two areas, there is a break. The first band has been pretty slow moving north, with precipitation amounts slightly lower than anticipated. As of early this morning, there still hasn't been any rain yet along the Canadian border, possibly due to the drier east-northeast flow (there is still at least a 10 degree temperature/dewpoint spread across southwest Ontario). Therefore, there is still not even a ceiling below 12,000 feet showing up around the Lake of the Woods region. The highest precipitation totals have been over west central Minnesota, where between 0.50 and 0.75 inches have fallen.

Some light precipitation should eventually move into the Lake of the Woods region, and there is still a potential for a little wet snow to mix in for areas along and north of highway 2. The precipitation is not steady enough to produce much for snow accumulation. With road temperatures mild, no impacts are expected even it does produce a dusting of snow. So the first band of precipitation along and north of highway 2 will continue to push out of the FA and into southern Canada after sunrise, while the area just to the south of the FA will pivot up into the FA and continue mainly east of the Red River Valley, before diminishing by later afternoon.

Brief 500mb ridging moves in tonight, which will provide a short window with no rain. Then the next wave will eject eastward through the FA mainly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The best moisture and instability seem to be just to the south of this FA, closer to the surface low that looks to set up from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota. For this FA, another round of rainfall is anticipated, with the NBM showing around a 70 percent probability for amounts greater than a quarter of inch. Some higher amounts are possible, with probabilities for over a half inch around 50 percent, mainly along and east of the Valley. These ranges seem to match pretty well with the past couple of events. More energy ejects out of the Central Plains into the Northern Plains Thursday through Friday, bringing another widespread wetting rain. There is more uncertainty with this round, so the NBM probabilities seem pretty low yet. However, amounts could again be similar to what the area has been getting (good chance of a quarter of an inch, with higher amounts possible). The uncertainty continues into the upcoming weekend, but chances for rain continue, and if it stays cloudy, it would continue to be cooler.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 554 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Have trended a little more optimistic in the TAFs, as far as ending the light precipitation. Otherwise, the low clouds should hold throughout the day, it is just a matter of exactly how low (IFR or just MVFR). KBJI and possibly KFAR should see some light rain today from the second band that is over the southern Valley right now. Guidance shows decreasing clouds from west to east tonight, which appear to reach the Valley. If this occurs, along with the light winds, fog is possible. If the clouds hold, fog would be much less likely. Due to this uncertainty, did mention fog at KDVL/KGFK/KFAR, but kept it at 5SM for now. Later shifts should be able to get a better feel for cloud trends and adjust for that and any better visibility trends.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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