Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laporte, MN

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday January 23, 2021 10:08 AM CST (16:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:49PMMoonset 3:30AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laporte, MN
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location: 47.26, -94.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 231603 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1003 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 958 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Cloud cover remains variable across the area with temperatures generally in the teens to near 20 degrees. Winds continue out of the south at 5 to 15 mph. A few locations have reported light snow east of the Red River Valley over the past several hours; however, most activity has since tapered off.

UPDATE Issued at 545 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Clouds have been a challenge to keep up with. The least cloud cover is currently along a Devils Lake to Fargo-Moorhead to Fergus Falls line. Clouds have already started to build back into south central and portions of southeast North Dakota, so most areas will only see some breaks of sun this morning. Otherwise, since clouds are still hanging tough across the northern Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota, lingered flurries in these areas through mid morning.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

The most impactful element in the short term portion of the forecast is the next chance of snow, which will begin across the southern FA late this morning and continue into tonight. Will discuss the latest trends below.

Starting with current conditions, there is an area of surface low pressure over southeast Saskatchewan, with a fairly weak pressure gradient over this FA. Therefore, wind speeds remain on the light side, with varying cloud amounts. Right now, clearing is spreading into southeast North Dakota and the Fergus Falls to Elbow Lake corridor. For a while this morning, would expect this clearing to continue to spread into west central Minnesota. The most cloud cover should hold along and north of the highway 2 corridor, where a few flurries may also fall.

As mentioned above, light snow will begin to spread into the far southern FA by late morning. Looking upstream, not seeing much organization yet over southwest South Dakota or northwest Nebraska. Therefore, would not be surprised if the start of the snow holds off in the southern FA until the afternoon. This event will again feature split energy, with the main 700mb low remaining over central Manitoba and a secondary 700mb short wave tracking across South Dakota toward western Wisconsin. The forcing for this event will be 850mb warm advection and the 700mb wave, which looks to spread about 1 to 2 inches of snow across the southern Red River Valley into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota. A subtle change with the past couple of model runs is more snow now across northwest Minnesota. The forcing in this area actually looks better now than across the southern FA, with 850mb frontogenesis in conjunction with upper level support as well. Although mid level lapse rates are not off the board, they look better across northwest Minnesota with the frontogenesis.

Precipitation amounts have also trended downward across the southern Valley into west central Minnesota, from 0.10-0.15 inches yesterday at this time, to about 0.05 to 0.10 inches now. Meanwhile, for northwest Minnesota, they have trended upward, from about 0.05-0.10 inches at this time yesterday, to 0.10 to 0.15 inches now. This corresponds to about 1 to 3 inches of snow around the Lake of the Woods and Upper and Lower Red Lakes areas. With the stronger forcing potential shifting into this area, will have to monitor for mesoscale banding and the potential for 3+ inches in some narrow bands. However, with split forcing, confidence is not really high in this potential yet, or exactly where. Even so, will update the messaging on this shift to mention that potential across northwest Minnesota. One thing noticeably absent will be gusty northwest winds as the system shifts east tonight. Although there is cold advection, it essentially moves in slowly, as 925/850mb winds are pretty weak. Northwest winds should hold in the 10 to 15 mph range tonight into Sunday morning. Unless these winds get higher, wind chills should hold below advisory criteria.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Impacts during this period are minimal, with only an inch or so of snow in the Devils Lake Basin Sunday night.

This period will start off with an upper wave moving east across northern ND Sunday night before weakening as it reaches far NW MN Monday morning. Still, it appears a few hundredths of precipitation are possible in northeast ND with some favorable isentropic lift ahead of the wave. And with snow ratios likely in the 15-20 to 1 category, it should be a fluffy 1" or so of accumulation if the signal holds. GFS and ECMWF ensemble means both have 0.05" to 0.08" of precip . favoring up to 1.5" of snow. Trended precip upwards from NBM and previous forecast.

After that wave moves through the region . the Northern Plains will be between to weather-makers with an upper low sitting over northern mb and an active jet stream to the south over the Central/Southern Plains. The pattern is expected to shift by Wednesday night with the last of the waves to the south moving off to the east and the upper level low over northern mb drifting northeast into Hudson Bay. This will leave upper ridging over the central US and troughs near the east and west coasts for Thu/Fri. The upper ridging will help temps warm up over our area while keeping things on the dry side. But as that 'troughiness' to the west makes its way east, there could be some snow returning for the weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 545 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Snow will begin to spread into KDVL and KFAR later this morning, but it will take until mid to late afternoon for it reach the other sites. Ceiling heights that have risen into VFR/MVFR ranges early this morning will also begin to drop again through the morning and early afternoon. The snow should begin to shift east of the Red River Valley by late this evening, but it may take until after 12z Sunday for the snow to end at KBJI. Wind speeds do not look to be an issue at all throughout the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . None. MN . None.

UPDATE . Lynch SHORT TERM . Godon LONG TERM . Knutsvig AVIATION . Godon


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bemidji, MN18 mi74 minS 710.00 miOvercast18°F14°F83%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBJI

Wind History from BJI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW6W8W10W9W6W6SW4SW5SW4SW4SW4SW3S4CalmS4S5SE6S4S7S5S4S5S6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.