Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laporte, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 9:08PM Sunday July 12, 2020 4:15 PM CDT (21:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:21PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laporte, MN
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location: 47.26, -94.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 121952 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 252 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SHORT TERM. (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Sunday afternoon will continue to be a nice day with a chance for some showers across the northern Red River Valley into parts of northern Minnesota. Continued cumulus development is likely, but with instability remaining low across most of the region thunderstorms are not likely. There is some greater instability in the northern Red River Valley with ML CAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, but with weak forcing not expecting much development. Can't rule out a rumble or two of thunder, but there should not be enough support for sustained thunderstorms this afternoon.

The main impact for this period will be Monday afternoon into Monday night. There will be forcing along a cold front moving across the Northern Plains with additional synoptic support from an upper trough. This combined with CAPE of 1000 to 3000 J/kg, 0 to 6 km bulk shear of 40 to 60 knots, and 0 to 1 km SRH up to 200 m2/s2 all severe threats will be possible. There should be enough inhibition to keep cells discrete initially, but as more cells initiate it could grow upscale later in the day. With this evolution there would be an initial supercellular threat before becoming a more linear wind threat. The linear threat would likely only be in parts of northwest and west central Minnesota based on the movement of the cold front. Precipitable water values around 1.5 inches, which is above the 90th percentile in NAEFS, will also provide for an excessive rainfall risk. Rainfall risk will be greatest near the international border and in northwest Minnesota although this will be very dependent on convection. This includes some areas with wet soils from recent rainfall in parts of far northwest Minnesota like the Hallock area. Rainfall totals will vary significantly across short distances in the discrete phase of the event, before a more uniform rainfall should the storms go upscale into a linear system.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Seasonal heat returns and additional chances for thunderstorms late next week into next week. Severe weather impacts can't be ruled out at this time, but details are uncertain due to the nature of the systems and range in time.

Large scale pattern highlighted by quasi-zonal flow north of large scale ridging over the southern CONUS, with rising heights tendencies and shortwave ridging midweek. This should keep dry conditions in place midweek, and result in seasonably hot temperatures to return by the end of the week (highs back around or warmer than 90 by Fri). Consensus shows a shift to a more active much still warm pattern by next week as there is some indication west-southwest flow and additional waves could ejected eastward along the northern periphery of the mid-upper level ridge. Not a lot of confidence in the details at this range and there is increasing spread in finer details like QPF/Instability from GEFS plumes. Still, by the end of next week into the weekend an active pattern and at least moderate instability signal supports increasing thunderstorm chances with possibility for severe (details uncertain). Thickness values and 850 mb temps on GEFS plumes continue to show increasing trends, so while precip/cloud cover and brief shifts in surface features may allow for a brief/slight decrease in temps Sun overall trends should favor mid 80s to near 90 (if not warmer) into the next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

VFR conditions to continue for the rest of the day into tomorrow. Winds generally at or below 10 knots for most of this TAF period. Highers winds to start up tomorrow late morning, especially farther south at terminals like FAR. Most of the thunderstorm activity will be after this TAF period Monday evening into the overnight period, but some VCTS will be possible Monday afternoon at DVL.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . None. MN . None.

SHORT TERM . NC LONG TERM . DJR AVIATION . NC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bemidji, MN18 mi21 minNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F57°F51%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBJI

Wind History from BJI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7N7N7N4N3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmSW3CalmE4
1 day agoNW9W10W9NW8NW5W3W3W4NW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3N3NE7N6N8N8
2 days agoW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.