Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laporte, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:16PM Friday September 20, 2019 7:20 PM CDT (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:48PMMoonset 12:31PM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laporte, MN
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location: 47.26, -94.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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Fxus63 kfgf 202026
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area forecast discussion
national weather service grand forks nd
326 pm cdt Fri sep 20 2019

Mesoscale discussion
Issued at 312 pm cdt Fri sep 20 2019
ongoing convective activity from this morning, continues to slowly
push eastward as we head through the afternoon with marginally
severe storms remaining possible.

Our next complex of storms will impact the region later this
afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front moves through the
area. Ahead of the front, mixing ratios of 12.5 to 13.5 g kg and dew
points in the middle to upper 60s will enhance instability.

Effective layer bulk shear is expected to be in the 40 to 45 knot
range ahead of the theta-e boundary, giving us a chance for either
embedded supercells or supercell multicell cluster hybrid-mode
storms initially early this afternoon. Progression into linear mode
will be rapid, possibly occuring prior to moving into the cwa.

Mlcape levels will top out just below 4000 j kg, thus plenty of
instability remains available heading into this evening. The best
chance for severe thunderstorms will occur in the devils lake basin
from around 5pm onward through about 7pm, progressing eastward into
the red river valley from about 7pm onward. Risks will include large
hail, especially for the devils lake basin, damaging wind gusts, and
possibly tornadoes (along a possible qlcs), possibly pushing into
northwestern minnesota before midnight.

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 312 pm cdt Fri sep 20 2019
high confidence in slow moving storm complex to impact the
northern half of the area tonight with the severe potential
mentioned in the mesoscale discussion. With pwats greater than
1.5 inches and abr bis soundings indicating 150 to 200 percent
above normal values storms will be very efficient rainfall
makers. Given these conditions and the slow moving forcing from
the upper low and embedded short wave will see a line of storms
train as they propagate slowly east southeast this evening into
the overnight. This results in a widespread 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall possible across the northern half of the fa with an inch
or less for areas along and south of i-94 through the noon hour
Saturday.

With the upper low slowly lifting northeast across southern
manitoba and westerly wind shift or cold front pushing across the
fa tomorrow morning into the afternoon will see storm coverage
increase early in the afternoon Saturday with another round of
storms possible. Some storms could become severe with wind gusts
to 60mph and hail up to an inch in NW mn.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 312 pm cdt Fri sep 20 2019
Sunday and Monday... Upper level trough currently over southern
id will move into ontario by 12z sun. Wrap around precip over the
northeast zones will move north and east out of the area sun.

Short wavelength ridge will move across the red river valley mon.

Quiescent weather is expected mon.

Tue - fri
long wave trough over central canada and the northern plains will
shift into hudson bay. Long wave ridge over the eastern pacific will
build north into the gulf of ak. Downstream long wave trough will
dig into the west coast. Long wave ridge over the southeast us
builds farther north into the mid atlantic states. Southwest flow
aloft develops over the northern plains by fri.

The operational models have a cutoff low over the desert southwest
will get kicked out to the northern plains on Fri as another trough
will drop into the desert southwest. GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean
precip agree reasonably well for next fri. The ECMWF and gfs
operational models are in good agreement through wed. The gfs
becomes the faster model thereafter.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1235 pm cdt Fri sep 20 2019
winds and storms will be the major impact over the TAF period.

Warm front near tvf will continue to bring thunder to the area for
the early afternoon. South winds will continue to gust to around
25kts in the valley this afternoon into the evening. As line of
storms develops to the west it will move into the dvl area around
00z and then gfk in the 02 to 04z time frame based on the latest
guidance. A line of storms will gradually move east overnight.

Westerly winds will develop tomorrow with gusts in the 20 to 25kt
range again. MVFR CIGS may develop overnight behind the storms and
would linger into the late morning hours.

Fgf watches warnings advisories
Nd... None.

Mn... None.

Mesoscale... Lynch
short term... Jk
long term... Jh
aviation... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bemidji, MN18 mi41 minSE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F68°F82%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBJI

Wind History from BJI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE3E4E5E5E5E6E6SE5E6E7SE8E9SE8SE13
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1 day agoSW6SW7SW7SW8W7SW5W6W4CalmW3SW3CalmNW6CalmCalmN4N5CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmE4
2 days agoS9S9S10S12S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.