Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 3:53 AM   Moonset 6:08 PM

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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 310 Pm Pdt Sun May 5 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon - .
Tonight - S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Mon - SW wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Mon night - W wind 5 to 15 kt becoming sw after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Tue - SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Tue night - NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming sw 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Wed - S wind to 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Wed night - N wind 5 to 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Thu - N wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Fri - N wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 310 Pm Pdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A frontal system will move across the waters tonight into Monday morning. High pressure will build back over the area Monday night and Tuesday with the ridge remaining in place Wednesday and Thursday.

FXUS66 KSEW 060318 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 818 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cool and unsettled conditions through Tuesday with a frontal system set to slowly move across western Washington tonight into Monday morning. A pattern shift still on as we head into the second half of the week with strong high pressure building across the Pacific Northwest, bringing steadily warming and dry conditions through next weekend.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An occluded front continues to barrel towards the coast this evening, just now moving into the offshore waters and will move onshore later this evening into the early overnight. We've seen some clearing just before sunset across the Puget Sound region as stronger 850 mb winds move into the region ahead of the incoming upper-level trough. Expect a gradual transition to more showery conditions into tonight as the front moves across the region and low-level flow turns more to the west. Surface temperatures remain above freezing at the passes this evening with just wet roadways as per traffic cams. Current temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s with little variation across much of western Washington. Lows not falling a whole lot once again tonight into the low to mid 40s.
Snow levels gradually begin to drop from around 5000 feet closer to 4000 feet into Monday morning.

An upper-level trough will dig southward across the Pacific Northwest Monday in the wake of the passing surface low and weak cold front. This will bring the chance for convective showers and thunderstorms thanks to steep low-level lapse rates as anomalously cold air aloft moves just overhead and 500 mb heights approach -30C. Brief gusty winds and small hail along with isolated lightning will all be possible, especially with the development of a Puget Sound Convergence Zone across Snohomish into central Skagit County by late morning, slowly drifting southward into King County by the evening. With fairly deep moisture, expect isolated lightning and small hail to be the primary convective hazards.
Cannot rule out another round of showers and perhaps a lightning strike or two on Tuesday, though less instability as the main upper-level trough shifts off to our east. High temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal Monday in the low to mid 50s, rising into the upper 50s Tuesday.

Light to moderate snowfall is expected across the Cascades as snow levels drop through the day Monday to below 3000 feet by early Tuesday morning, perhaps down to 2700 feet, which will allow for light snowfall accumulations late Monday through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Snowfall ratios will stay mostly below 10:1 Monday, largely mitigating snowfall accumulation at the Cascade passes, but greatest concern will be for convergence zone enhancement of snowfall rates into Monday night, where snowfall would be the most likely to accumulate on roadways above 2700 feet. At this time, total snowfall Monday through Tuesday looks to remain below advisory thresholds, with a 60% chance for at least 4 inches of snow through 5 pm Tuesday at Stevens Pass and 20% at Snoqualmie Pass. Chances for at least 6 inches drops much more to around 25% and 5%, respectively. Though this will be a late-season snow, Winter Storm Severity Index forecasts generally less than a 50% chance for only minor travel disruptions, furthering the decision to hold off on any Winter Weather Advisories at this time. Will need to monitor exactly how convergence banding sets up and for how long across the passes late Monday into Tuesday, however.

Heading into Wednesday, a pattern change begins with upper-level ridging and surface high pressure building across the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures nudge upward into the upper 50s to lower 60s with partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Little change in the forecast into the second half of the week as long range ensemble guidance develops a Rex Block across the West with strong ridging across the Pacific Northwest Thursday through Saturday north of an upper low that cuts off across California and Nevada. This low and block begin to disintegrate by Sunday with the ridge deamplifying. A thermal trough also looks to develop along the coast Thursday and Friday, helping to promote offshore flow and weak downslope warming. Ensemble guidance continues to hone in on Saturday for the warmest high temperatures, though the NBM indicates a nearly 60% chance for highs above 80 on both Friday and Saturday for most of the lowlands aside from areas along waterfronts. The warmest temperatures appear most likely across the Southwest Interior with over a 90% chance for highs over 80 Friday and Saturday. Though the high temperature forecast is likely to fluctuate to some extent in the coming days, this looks to be are first run at 80 degrees for many. Keep in mind that local waters remain very cold, with hypothermia risk possible even with these warm air temperatures. Adhere to safety practices if planning time outdoors near any bodies of water late this week and weekend.

Davis

AVIATION
Flow aloft west/southwesterly as an upper level trough digs in from the northwest. A brief moment of continued improvement to MVFR to VFR for some with some breaks in the low-level cloud deck as the next frontal system moves onshore. Ceilings will lower back down to widespread MVFR with localized IFR conditions with scattered rain showers tonight as the front moves through. Behind the front, cloud cover will break up and a return to low-end VFR conditions as early as tomorrow morning while showers become more convectively driven. Expect mostly VFR conditions continuing into tomorrow. Post- frontal instability will increase tomorrow afternoon, so a few lightning strikes nearby cannot be ruled out. Thunder activity will be very isolated in nature, so not including in the TAF.

Breezy S/SW winds this afternoon around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kt will continue into the evening, especially around the time of frontal passage. Winds will start to ease by late Monday afternoon.

KSEA...A brief break to VFR early this evening as the next frontal system approaches. MVFR conditions return by 05-06Z Monday as scattered showers move through the region. VFR conditions return perhaps as early as 12Z Monday, but more likely later towards 15-18Z Monday as the cloud cover breaks up behind the frontal passage. VFR through most of tomorrow with isolated showers. A few isolated lightning strikes are possible tomorrow evening. Breezy S/SW winds this evening 10 to 15 knots with potential gusts up to 20 to 25 kts into the night. Winds will start to ease by late Monday afternoon.

LH

MARINE
A frontal system located just offshore will continue to work its way through the coastal waters tonight into Monday, with increasing onshore flow along with it. Small Craft Advisories continue for the Central and East Entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca through tonight. Winds will drop off quickly as the front passes through the Strait, but will begin to ramp back up to SCA criteria tomorrow morning through the Central Strait, then into the East Strait again tomorrow evening. Winds increase into Tuesday up to 25 to 30 kt as high pressure begins to develop to the west over the open ocean. Gusty winds on Tuesday may bleed into Admiralty Inlet and into the southern side of the San Juan Islands.

Breezy southwesterly winds continue tonight through the Puget Sound, in particular for areas around and north of Seattle up to Whidbey Island, lasting into tomorrow as well as the flow turns more due southerly following the frontal passage tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tomorrow afternoon as winds will begin to taper off then.

Breezy southwesterly winds will also continue over the coastal waters tonight as the front progresses through. A few gusts to 25 to 30 kt are possible near and south of Grays Harbor, but will diminish later tonight following the frontal passage. Winds will turn westerly behind the front then northwesterly and slowly decrease as high pressure moves into the region for the middle and end of the week.

Combined seas around 7 to 8 feet will slowly build up to near 10 feet by Monday night and will remain around 10 feet into Tuesday.
Seas will subside to around 5 to 6 feet Wednesday and remain through the end of the week.

LH

HYDROLOGY
No river flooding is expected through the next seven days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT Monday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

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Duwamish Waterway
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Mon -- 03:37 AM PDT     11.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:54 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM PDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM PDT     10.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:41 PM PDT     4.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Duwamish Waterway, Washington, Tide feet

Restoration Point
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Mon -- 12:39 AM PDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:44 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:54 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:33 AM PDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:20 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:39 PM PDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:25 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:09 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:19 PM PDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:38 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Restoration Point, 0.6 miles ESE of, Washington Current, knots

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