Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Firs, WA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:03PM Monday August 26, 2019 1:00 AM PDT (08:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:32AMMoonset 4:46PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 845 Pm Pdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..NW wind to 10 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW wind to 10 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..NW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
PZZ100 845 Pm Pdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow will continue through Monday before turning offshore on Tuesday as a thermal trough builds north along the west coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Firs, WA
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location: 47.88, -122.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 260255
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
755 pm pdt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis A strong ridge of high pressure will begin to build
into the area tonight thru mid-week. Low level onshore flow will
also transition to offshore flow late Monday into Tuesday. This
combination will bring unseasonably hot temperatures to western
washington with temperatures peaking on Wednesday. A weak system will
bring a brief rest on Thursday before another ridge builds over the
area at the end of the week.

Short term tonight through Wednesday Current satellite imagery
and a look out the window agree that skies are generally clear over
the area. There are still a couple of patches out there... But the
trend is for these bits to thin out. The exception to this may be
along the coast where weak onshore flow may bring a return of
marine stratus.

Monday will kick off a week full of unseasonably warm conditions as
upper level ridging will continue to strengthen over W wa but the
furnace does not really kick on until gradients turn the low level
flow offshore later in the day. With flow being in transition
through the day... In increase in temps will be mainly from the upper
level ridge and clear skies... Thus only being a few degrees warmer
than what was observed today with afternoon highs still generally in
the 70s with the SW interior hitting around 80. Tuesday will see
this combo of offshore flow and strong upper level ridging have a
larger impact with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s along the
coast and the mid 80s to around 90 for the interior. While this will
be the peak for temps along the coast... Wednesday will bring the
hottest temperatures to the interior... With locations from the
seattle metro area south seeing temps in the upper 80s to around 90
and the SW interior getting into the lower 90s.

This kind of heat will result in a moderate heat risk over much of w
wa for both Tuesday and Wednesday... Meaning that those more
sensitive to heat will be at risk unless simple measures are taken.

While this heat will not meet advisory thresholds... Those finding
themselves or their pets outdoors for any prolonged period of time
Tuesday and Wednesday are encouraged to take regular breaks and
hydrate often and if traveling or shopping... Remember to never
leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Smr

Long term Thursday through Sunday From previous discussion... On
Thursday, the ridge will begin to dampen across the region as a
shortwave trough approaches the area from the sw. Guidance is having
a tough time determining the amount of moisture associated with this
weak system as its projected path takes it across southern
washington into eastern washington. For now will keep slight chance
of showers in for the far SE portion of the cwa. Enough afternoon
destabilization should yield enough CAPE for a chance for a
thunderstorm, mainly along and east of the crest, which could pose
fire concerns. Despite weak troughing with the shortwave, guidance
still keeps temps in the low-mid 80s, so while it may not be quite
as hot as Wednesday, it may still remain rather warm. Will have to
watch trends over the coming days: more cloud cover and showers
could keep things cooler, whereas a weaker system or a more
southerly track could keep those conditions to our south.

By Friday, the ridge noticeably reestablishes itself across the
area, primarily in response to a deepening closed low across the
northern pacific. Yesterday, guidance wanted to bring this low
towards washington rather quickly with some wetting rain,
essentially ending our brief period of heat. Last few model runs
now slow this system down considerably, with a more noticeable
amplification of the ridge. It remains possible for temps to warm
back up Friday and Saturday now. For now not going as high on
temperatures as the middle of the week, but have nudged temps a
few degrees.

Models then diverge later in the weekend regarding closed pacific
low. Unfortunately, ensembles don't really help clear anything up.

Deterministic ec brings front into the area with showers while
gfs keeps ridge over area. Given solutions in previous runs have
shown potential for showers, re-introduced just a slight chance,
tho it remains possible the closed low could get "cutoff" from
faster westerly flow to the north, which if is the case, western
washington gets to hang onto the ridge. Right now, leaning
slightly towards the more progressive solution, which would favor
the ec a tad.

Kovacik

Aviation Northwesterly flow aloft as an upper level trough
departs the pacific northwest. Onshore flow at the surface.

Vfr conditions in place over W wa this evening and are expected to
remain in place for most of the area overnight and into Monday. The
exception to this may be along the coast where marine stratus may
cause for MVFR conditions during the overnight hours and early
Monday morning before conditions clear by Monday afternoon.

Ksea...VFR conditions tonight and Monday. Northerly winds at 4-8
knots. Smr

Marine Onshore flow continues into Monday although gradients will
not be as tight as previous days. As such... Winds in the strait are
just shy of SCA criteria. Will continue to monitor... But even the
usually cantankerous race rocks is adhering to the forecast... So no
headlines in place for the evening forecast package. Surface flow
will shift to offshore late Monday and into Tuesday and is expected
to persist through much of the week. Smr

Fire weather Very warm temperatures and low relative
humidities are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with poor relative
humidity recovery especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will be the warmest and driest day. Thursday will likely
see cooler temperatures and improved relative humidities.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46120 15 mi22 min NNE 3.9 60°F 1021.9 hPa52°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 21 mi61 min N 11 G 11 59°F 1023.2 hPa (+0.5)55°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 36 mi49 min W 7 G 11 58°F 54°F1023.9 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 44 mi91 min ESE 1 51°F 1023 hPa49°F
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 44 mi49 min NNW 4.1 G 6
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 44 mi49 min 63°F 56°F1023.1 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 47 mi71 min NW 4.1 G 7 55°F 1023.4 hPa (+0.6)51°F

Wind History for Seattle, Puget Sound, WA, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Everett Snohomish County, WA7 mi68 minN 610.00 miFair56°F51°F84%1023.4 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA20 mi65 minNW 710.00 miFair56°F53°F90%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAE

Wind History from PAE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE6--N6N4--Calm3--3CalmN6NW4E45N5W5SW5W6NW4--N7--N6
1 day agoN34N5NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmSE43--W8W9W8SW7N7N8
G15
N7N8----N9----
2 days ago--N3N3CalmCalm--N4N3NE3NW11
G15
N65NE33W7N5N4N6N5--------N5

Tide / Current Tables for Everett, Washington
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Everett
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM PDT     9.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:05 AM PDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:46 PM PDT     10.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:46 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:44 PM PDT     7.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.59.68.87.55.73.71.80.3-0.30.11.43.35.57.69.19.910.19.78.97.97.37.17.58.2

Tide / Current Tables for President Point, 1.5 mile E of, Washington Current
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President Point
Click for MapFlood direction 203 true
Ebb direction 24 true

Mon -- 12:10 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:34 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:26 AM PDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:37 AM PDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:40 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:46 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:57 PM PDT     -0.31 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:12 PM PDT     0.10 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.2-00.20.40.40.40.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1-00.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.