Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 2:11 AM   Moonset 10:12 AM

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FXUS65 KMSO 301845 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1245 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

DISCUSSION
An moist and unstable atmosphere across the Northern Rockies will keep a mix of snow, graupel, and rain showers persisting through the day and overnight for the majority of western Montana and north central Idaho. A few breaks of sunshine will be possible between showers, but overall we expect the unsettled nature of the weather to persist through at least Friday.

A more focused area of moisture and colder air will sink south out of Alberta on Wednesday and will traverse along the Divide through Thursday morning. In doing so, accumulating snow will be likely immediately along the Divide. There is a 78% probability of at least 2 inches of snow accumulating on Highway 2 over Marias Pass, and a 45% probability of 4 inches, Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to address this potential. Lesser amounts will be possible for other locations hugging the Continental Divide.

Conditions will once again remain unsettled both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, the region is looking at yet another troughing pattern; one that shows hints of lasting through next weekend. Appreciable moisture will be a result of this pattern, though anyone hoping for a prolonged window of dry weather or a warm up in temperatures is likely going to be disappointed.



AVIATION
A well defined shortwave trough, located over northeastern Oregon early this afternoon, will shift eastwards towards central Montana by 8 am MDT Tuesday morning. On the back side of this trough, several weak embedded shortwaves will keep shower activity going. The west-central and southwest Montana, and SMN terminals have the best chance for snow and graupel showers, and may be accompanied by gusty winds to to 25 knots. On Wednesday, multiple waves will rotate counter-clockwise around the stationary upper level trough over southern Alberta and Saskatchewan into northwest Montana. This will keep persistent mountain snow showers going with reduced ceilings, especially in the Glacier National Park region, and in the vicinity of the Swan and Mission Ranges. The remainder of the region will experience an uptick in afternoon showers with gusty winds.



MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 9 AM MDT Thursday for West Glacier Region.

ID...None.

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