Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Anacortes, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 4:17PM Monday December 16, 2019 1:40 AM PST (09:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:26PMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 835 Pm Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am pst Monday through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 15 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers in the evening then a slight chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..E wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..E wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SE wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 835 Pm Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A warm front will brush the area on Monday. A series of frontal systems will move through the area over the second half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anacortes, WA
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location: 48.51, -122.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 160436 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 836 PM PST Sun Dec 15 2019

UPDATE. Once again just a few subtle tweaks to the forecast this evening based on radar and satellite data. An upper level ridge is currently building into the region this evening out ahead of a deepening trough across the Pacific. Heights are rising quite noticeably this evening, with inland precipitation coverage finally dwindling. Patchy fog is beginning to show up in the Puget Sound vicinity as well as eastern Strait. This will likely continue overnight given abundant lingering low level moisture, although could be disrupted across some locations as mid and higher level cloud cover advects in from the west.

The ridge will continue to build into the area through the overnight hours and into Monday, with heights continuing to rise and jet activity being pushed away from the local area. Although synoptically the ridge argues for forcing for descent and quiet weather, the lower levels reveal a few key features that will make this not quite the case tonight and tomorrow. A sfc frontal system (warm frontal portion) can be noted offshore, approaching our coastal waters. Decent frontogenesis & WAA are noted in the 925-850 mb layer. Not surprisingly, radar imagery from KLGX shows widespread stratiform rain activity in the vicinity of this front, coinciding with the area of best lower level forcing. A decent cloud shield can also be detected via GOES IR satellite imagery along and well ahead of the front.

The front will approach the area on Monday, spreading some of this rain into the area as it weakens upon landfall. Best chance for rain will be across the Olympic Peninsula and the north interior, with a rain shadow likely in the Puget Sound area (tho a few showers may make it in during the afternoon). Will be another cloudy day. The good news is that this system will lift north and provide us 1 dry day on Tuesday before an active weather pattern sets up.

Kovacik

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 208 PM PST Sun Dec 15 2019/

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure aloft will build over the area Monday and Tuesday. A warm front will brush western and northern portions of the area Monday with some light rain. A broad upper level trough will develop over the northeast Pacific by midweek with a series of potent systems reaching the area into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Scattered showers will gradually dissipate over the area this evening as weak upper level ridging starts to build into the area. Still a lot of low level moisture continues to linger around the region. With light surface winds, patchy fog is likely to form in the more fog prone valleys overnight. Higher level clouds associated with a weak warm front offshore are already close to the coast and will spread into the region later tonight. Some light rain associated with the warm front is expected to reach coastal areas and perhaps the north interior Monday. The remainder of the area should remain generally dry Monday and Tuesday. The air mass dries out somewhat on Tuesday as cross-Cascade easterly flow picks up. This should help limit fog coverage and give some areas at least some partial sunshine. A broad upper trough will deepen over the northeast Pacific Tuesday night and Wednesday with the first of a series of systems spreading widespread rain and mountain snow across the area on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The extended forecast period continues to look like an active string of weather for the region. Deterministic model runs funnel a fairly significant stream of moisture into the region. Snow levels look to remain relatively low through much of period and this translates to some significant snowfall in the mountains in the run-up to the Christmas holiday period. 7 day precipitation anomalies of both the GFS and Euro show some positive values of 1 to 3 inches for the region. This is leaning toward a decidedly wetter period from what we've seen recently. 27

AVIATION. Anticipate another night of lower ceilings, mainly MVFR, tho IFR will remain a possibility for some terminals. Above the MVFR layer, a deck of mid and higher level cloud cover will advect in from the west overnight tonight. As MVFR conditions try to rise through the day Monday, they will give way to this mid level deck. Patchy fog had also developed in the vicinity of Puget Sound this evening. Patchy fog is likely to linger through the night, but think it will mostly affect OLM and maybe PWT. Advection of the higher level deck and an approaching warm front may keep fog tame. Showers will spread in from the ocean overnight and thru Monday, mainly affecting HQM, CLM, and maybe BLI. Winds south 5-10kts tho higher at HQM 10-15kts.

KSEA . MVFR will likely be the dominant category tonight with some patchy fog in the vicinity. As MVFR tries to improve on Monday, there will be an expansive mid-level deck above it. The airfield will likely be rain-shadowed most of the day Monday as the front brushes the state but a few showers cannot be ruled out at least in the vicinity during the afternoon. Winds south 5-10kts.

Kovacik

MARINE. No changes needed this evening to the marine forecast. A small craft advisory for wind is currently in effect for the outer coastal waters as the warm front approaches. This headline coincides well with recent observations out that way that show winds of 21kts or greater. These breezy winds are still on track to move eastward across the remaining coastal waters and some of the interior waters later tonight into Monday. From there still looks like a week of enhanced winds across the waters. Previous discussion follows:

A warm front will clip the area on Monday. After the warm front brushes by gradients will become more easterly on Tuesday. Two or three frontal systems will affect the area Wed-Sat.

Kovacik

HYDROLOGY. There are no flooding concerns through the first half of this week. The latter part of this week will be wet, but snow levels will be relatively low. There will be some rises on the rivers. The Skokomish in particular will bear some watching.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PST Monday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Admiralty Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 8 mi71 min E 5.1 36°F 1027 hPa34°F
46118 15 mi86 min 40°F 1026.5 hPa40°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 18 mi31 min E 15 G 17 40°F 1026.5 hPa36°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 22 mi65 min 48°F1026.6 hPa
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 26 mi53 min 1027.3 hPa
CPMW1 26 mi65 min ENE 7 G 8.9 38°F
CPNW1 26 mi89 min E 7 G 8.9 39°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 29 mi65 min SE 5.1 G 8 40°F 47°F1027 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 33 mi31 min ESE 14 G 16 43°F 47°F1027 hPa40°F

Wind History for Friday Harbor, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA10 mi66 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F32°F93%1027.1 hPa
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA11 mi1.7 hrsE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F33°F77%1027.7 hPa
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA20 mi48 minN 05.00 miFair with Haze35°F30°F82%1027.9 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA21 mi46 minSE 510.00 miFair41°F37°F87%1026.4 hPa
Friday Harbor Airport, WA22 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair38°F36°F93%1026.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVS

Wind History from BVS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E4CalmSE4CalmE4CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmNE4N3NE6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm
2 days agoE4SE5CalmSE6S5SE3CalmNE3SE5S4SE5SE6S4S4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Anacortes, Guemes Channel, Washington (2)
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Anacortes
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:41 AM PST     -1.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:56 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:51 AM PST     9.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:38 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:25 PM PST     6.82 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:49 PM PST     6.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:25 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-1.7-0.90.52.34.36.37.999.38.98.27.576.86.86.96.96.96.86.153.31.5

Tide / Current Tables for Guemes Channel, West entrance of, Washington Current
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Guemes Channel
Click for MapFlood direction 95 true
Ebb direction 255 true

Mon -- 02:08 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:03 AM PST     1.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:56 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:06 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:38 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:57 AM PST     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:15 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:22 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:51 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:58 PM PST     0.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:25 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:28 PM PST     -2.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.2-1.2-0.10.71.51.91.60.90.1-0.6-1-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.9-0.6-0.20.1-0.2-0.9-1.6-2.3-2.7-2.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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