Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ferndale, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 4:15PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 12:32 AM PST (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 7:11AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 856 Pm Pst Tue Dec 10 2019
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening then a slight chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..SE wind 5 to 15 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. Showers.
Thu..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SW wind to 10 kt becoming nw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..W wind to 10 kt becoming se. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 856 Pm Pst Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A stronger front approaches the coastal waters by early Wednesday and will move across the region through Wednesday night. A trough will move through the area on Thursday. Onshore flow eases a bit on Friday, but the next disturbance pushes onshore to the south of the local area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferndale, WA
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location: 48.79, -122.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 110538 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 938 PM PST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS . A weak front is pushing across the Cascades this evening, with lingering light rain and mountain snow showers. A brief break is expected Wednesday morning before the next, much stronger system moves into the area late Wednesday through early Friday. This system will bring heavy snow to the Cascades, particularly above 3500 to 4000 feet. Active weather will continue into next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/. Not much change needed to the forecast for tonight as today's front continues to advance eastward across the Cascades, with some lingering showers in the post-frontal air mass. Snow levels have been slightly lower than expected, with snow observed around Snoqualmie Pass, so trended the forecast to reflect this. Otherwise, showers will linger in the higher terrain overnight, but generally come to an end elsewhere outside of perhaps some light drizzle out of the low stratus deck. Remainder of the previous short term discussion remains valid and follows. Cullen

Attention then turns to the next system that will impact the region Wednesday into early Friday. This system will bring much more precipitation to the region, along with breezy conditions. The headlines are as follows:

* Lowland Rainfall: Most lowland areas will see 0.50-1.25 inches of rainfall, with higher amounts of 1.5-2.00 inches along the coast.

* Mountain Precipitation: The mountains will generally see 1.5-2.5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation, with locally higher amounts around 3.0-3.5 inches.

* Snow levels: Snow levels will generally begin between 4000-5000 feet, then lower to 2500-3500 feet late Thursday night into Friday morning. This means that Stevens Pass will likely experience significantly more snowfall than Snoqualmie Pass. * Snow Amounts: Accumulations generally 3-6 inches below 3500 feet (again, mainly early Friday), 1-2 feet between 3500-4500 feet, and 2-4 feet above 4500 feet. (A Winter Storm Watch was issued for the Cascades)

* Gusty Winds: Breezy southerly winds are expected with this system with gusts generally 20-30 MPH. Stronger winds with gusts 35-45 MPH will be possible across and near the coastal waters, through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and in the north interior (waters near and north of Whidbey Island).

The heaviest and most widespread precipitation is likely to occur Wednesday evening/night, with precipitation becoming more showering in nature Thursday. In fact, there will exist a slight chance of thunderstorms along the coast and southwest WA Thursday afternoon and potentially again Friday as somewhat cooler air moves in aloft. -Wolcott-

LONG TERM /FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/. As we move into Friday afternoon through Saturday, precipitation chances will begin to diminish. That said, the pattern is messy and the door will be open for a weak system to brush the area over the weekend, so I wouldn't bet on a completely dry forecast.

Looking out further, there is good ensemble agreement in the continuation of an active pattern with the development of a mean trough just off the PNW coast. This will not only keep the door open for more energy to move through the area, but also sets up a more favorable pattern for wetter and warmer than average mid- December conditions. This matches well with the latest CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day guidance. -Wolcott-

AVIATION . Today's front is currently advancing through the Cascades, with some showers lingering in the moist, post-frontal air mass. Expect fairly widespread low stratus persisting across much of the region overnight, with some improvement early Wednesday. However, any improvement will be short-lived, as conditions deteriorate again with steady rain and lower ceilings in conjunction with the front Wednesday afternoon and into the evening.

KSEA . Low stratus will likely maintain mostly IFR/LIFR conditions overnight. An improving trend toward MVFR possible through the morning, but this improvement looks short-lived as the next front arrives by late afternoon for lowering ceilings and reduced visibility in steadier rain. Cullen

MARINE . A stronger frontal system approaches the coastal waters late tonight and early Wednesday, before crossing the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A gale warning is up for the coastal waters and the east entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern inland waters have a good chance for gales Wednesday afternoon or evening as well. Surface pressure gradient increases a bit on Thursday as a trough crosses the waters. The next disturbance moves onshore well south of the region over the weekend. Meanwhile, a large west swell will arrive on Thursday, building seas into the 17-20 ft range over the coastal waters.

HYDROLOGY . A wet storm system will impact the region Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Given precipitation amounts and snow levels in the 4000-5000 foot range - most rivers are not expected to approach flood stage. There is some concern that the Skokomish River in Mason County could approach flood stage. We will continue to monitor this situation. -Wolcott/Bower-

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Gale Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for Admiralty Inlet.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46118 7 mi38 min 39°F 1019.7 hPa39°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 7 mi45 min 1018.9 hPa
CPMW1 7 mi51 min NE 8 G 8.9 41°F
CPNW1 7 mi81 min ENE 8 G 9.9 41°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 25 mi57 min 48°F1018.6 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 25 mi63 min SE 4.1 43°F 1019 hPa43°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 34 mi23 min S 4.1 G 7 44°F 1018.9 hPa42°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 42 mi23 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 47°F1019.4 hPa42°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 47 mi51 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 48°F1019.4 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point South Dock, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA7 mi40 minNNE 37.00 miOvercast42°F37°F85%1019.4 hPa
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA13 mi38 minN 06.00 miLight Rain43°F42°F100%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLI

Wind History from BLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmE4CalmE4E6NE5E3NE4NE6N3NE5NE3NE5NE3N3N4NE5N4N3N3
1 day agoN5N5N4N4N5N3N4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N4CalmNE6NE6N5NE7N4NE3Calm--CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Sandy Point, Lummi Bay, Washington
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Sandy Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:56 AM PST     8.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:38 AM PST     6.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:03 PM PST     8.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:11 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:14 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM PST     Full Moon
Wed -- 10:50 PM PST     -1.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.21.93.75.77.48.58.98.687.476.97.37.98.58.88.57.76.24.11.9-0.1-1.4-1.7

Tide / Current Tables for Clark Island, 1.6 mile North of, Washington Current
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Clark Island
Click for MapFlood direction 335 true
Ebb direction 150 true

Wed -- 12:23 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:25 AM PST     1.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:11 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:14 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:58 AM PST     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:50 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:45 PM PST     0.36 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:45 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:11 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:14 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:21 PM PST     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:14 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.40.91.11.10.90.50.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.200.30.3-0.1-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.8-1.7-1.5-1.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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