Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 5:57AM||Sunset 6:53PM||Monday July 6, 2020 6:51 AM ChST (20:51 UTC)||Moonrise 8:54PM||Moonset 3:37AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Attu Station, AKHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for -  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXAK68 PAFC 051337 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 537 AM AKDT Sun Jul 5 2020
ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.
The shortwave moving south out of the Interior is finally making the transit over the AK Range and into the Copper River Basin. It is slower and weaker than initially expected, but has still managed to fire a couple nice thunderstorms along the Denali Highway. The shortwave can be well identified on a water vapor loop in satellite. Convection with rain showers has been occurring in the Copper River Basin through the night as well. Elsewhere in the forecast area, low level cloud cover and rain exist along the coast of Southwest Alaska. This is occurring ahead of a weak front moving through the Central Bering.
Models continue their trend of falling apart in agreement after about 48 hours. They are at least performing better than they were yesterday, with the upper level high breaking down and mainland ALaska undergoing a transition in the weather pattern. They are still too fuzzy to have high confidence in the forecast past 48 hrs, so moderate confidence in the forecast.
AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions will persist. Turnagain arm winds have increased and will continue at about their current strength until midday. A seabreeze will then switch wind direction to a southwest direction for the afternoon and evening hours.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2 Sunday and Monday) .
Warm and dry weather will hang on across the Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl, and the Susitna and Matanuska Valleys as the ridge aloft continues to influence this area. Cooler temperatures are still slated to arrive on Monday as the ridge weakens and clouds increase. A vigorous shortwave currently over the Alaskan Range will continue to track south to the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. This feature is producing some strong thunderstorms along the Denali Highway and some showers in the rest of the area. These cells look to merge through the morning as they drive east across the Copper River Basin before ending by late this afternoon.
Meanwhile, a warm front on the leading edge of a high amplitude ridge moving in from the Bering Sea will track into the Western Gulf and to Kodiak today, bringing periods of rain. An upper level shortwave will then arrive tonight, pushing the front northward toward the southern Kenai Peninsula and enhancing the rainfall intensity. The northward extent of steady rain looks to be somewhere between Homer and Soldotna. The upper trough will continue eastward across the Gulf on Monday, which will cause the front to quickly fall apart and bring an end to the rain.
Low pressure over the Yukon will bring weak shortwaves into the Copper River basin producing mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The rest of Southcentral will be in the transition zone between the front and upper trough which cross the Gulf and the waves crossing the Copper River Basin. With weak forcing, expect the end result to be primarily an increase in clouds through Monday with marginally cooler temperatures.
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).
The pattern will gradually become more stable as northwesterly synoptic flow will bring a cooler and more stable airmass over the area Monday and Tuesday. The best chance for convection will be this afternoon and evening as a wave of upper level energy moves through the Kuskokwim Valley. Stability indices show the Kuskokwim Valley being the area most favorable for the potential of convection this afternoon and evening. Due to this, there is a slight chance of wet thunderstorms in the Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon and evening. For the remainder of the period, the dominant concern will be fog and low stratus throughout the low- lying and coastal areas in Southwest Alaska. MOS guidance shows little to no dewpoint depressions at various locations in these areas.
SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).
The pattern will remain benign across the Bering/Aleutians over the next 3 days. Teleconnections (large scale weather patterns) support the development of upper level ridging across the Bering/Aleutians during the middle of this week. With ridging in place, there is high confidence that winds will remain below gale force throughout the forecast period. The primary forecast challenge will be fog and low stratus as MOS guidance shows little to no dewpoint depression in the Pribilof Islands.
MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday).
Gulf of Alaska: Weak low centers slide along an elongated trough across the Gulf and slipping Southward through Tue. Confidence is good for West to Northwest small craft winds and waves to develop East of the Shumagin Islands and spreading to the Barren Islands through Thu. Lower confidence for Gale winds and waves possible near Sitkinak and through the Barren Islands Wed and Thu.
Aleutians and Bering: A front pushes into Western Alaska on Wed. Confidence is good for Southwesterly small craft winds and waves across the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay. High pressure after the front helps bring Easterly winds from the Pribilofs to the Western Aleutians through Thu.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday) .
A North Pacific low and front will bear down on the Aleutians by Fri before shifting towards the Mainland for Sat. The low is expected to follow its preceding front to near Nunivak Island. Expecting increased cloudiness, rain and windy conditions to spread over the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and into Southwest Alaska during its move East.
A weak gradient over Interior Alaska will be interrupted by periodic short waves through Sat. Increased cloudiness, rain and possible thunderstorms during daytime heating, but with cooler temperatures overall. High pressure reasserts itself over the Gulf through Sat.
AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BJB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO/RC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . ED MARINE/LONG TERM . MK
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|Shemya, Eareckson AFB, AK||49 mi||57 min||SW 18||5.00 mi||Fog/Mist and Breezy||46°F||44°F||92%||1018.3 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for PASY
Wind History from ASY (wind in knots)
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