Wednesday, October16, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Lubec, ME

Version 3.4
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 7:06PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 9:51 PM +00 (21:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:29PMMoonset 8:59AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lubec CDP, ME
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location: 53.55, -0.08     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 161952
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
352 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Low pressure will intensify off the mid-atlantic coast tonight and
quickly track north into new hampshire Thursday morning. The low
will weaken and slide east across southern maine Thursday night and
into the maritimes on Friday. High pressure will return through the
weekend and into Monday.

Near term through Thursday
An upper trof low ovr the lower great lks will be taking a
negative tilt ovrngt ovr the mid atlc states. This will allow
rapid secondary cyclogenesis ovr the mid atlc states this eve,
with the low movg N into W cntrl new eng by erly morn thu, at
which tm the sfc low will be captured by an upper low, with both
systems then movg E ovr coastal downeast me by Thu erly eve.

From a sensible wx perspective, this will result in increasing
cldnss for our fa this eve, with rn onset advcg SW to NE across
the fa from late tngt ovr the lower penobscot vly to erly to
mid morn ovr the NRN st john vly. With the low reaching max
intensity late tngt, then slowly filling durg the day thu, best
hvy rn banding will be ovr SRN and WRN ptns of the fa late tngt
into Thu morn, with banding weakening as it traverses further n
as the triple point of occlusion alg with the rvr of highest pws
slides ene away from the rgn via the can maritimes. Subsequently,
rnfl totals thru 00z Fri will be least ovr the far NE where
about a half inch can be xpctd upwards to about 1.50 inches ovr
downeast and SW ptns of the fa.

About the same can be said regarding winds, which will be
strongest alg the downeast coast very late tngt thru Thu morn,
where we converted the high wind watch to a high wind wrng.

Further n, a wind adv will be needed for interior downeast and e
cntrl ptns of the fa, with a wind adv also for the NE beginning
by mid morn Thu and contg til late aftn. Impact of strong winds
will exasperated by many trees still holding their leaves,
spcly downeast adding greater potential of downed trees and
power lines than if trees where leafless. Rain and winds will
reduce in intensity from SW to NE across the fa durg the aftn
hrs thu.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Low pressure across southern maine will be occluding and weakening
Thursday night as some scattered showers and drizzle remain over the
region. The low center will continue northeast across new brunswick
Thursday night. A deep northwesterly gradient both surface and aloft
will allow a gusty northwest wind to follow the low across the area
on Friday. Some showers will linger over the area, mostly Friday
morning. Drier air circulating into the system will taper showers
down by Friday afternoon and bring a clearing trend over the region
Friday night as the low continues away to the northeast and high
pressure begins to build in. The northwesterly breeze will likely
continue Friday night. High pressure building in will bring a return
of sunshine and increasingly tranquil conditions on Saturday.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
High pressure across the area will bring a clear, calm and cool
night Saturday night with fog likely forming in many valleys.

The high will then bring a sunny to partly cloudy and tranquil
day on Sunday. A weak disturbance north of the area may bring
patchy clouds over far northern areas during the day Sunday.

High pressure will remain over the area Monday bringing another
very tranquil day with plenty of sunshine across the entire area
as upper level ridging, supporting strong subsidence, builds in
from the west. This will be followed by a mostly clear night
Monday night. Tuesday will likely begin mostly sunny. Clouds
will then begin to rapidly increase Tuesday afternoon ahead of a
narrow but strong occlusion approaching from the west. As the
occlusion pushes into our area Tuesday night, a strong gradient
between the big high to the east and the lower pressure in the
approaching front will bring a period of potentially strong
southeasterly winds and a band of heavy rain Tuesday night. The
narrow but intense front will continue east into the maritimes
early Wednesday morning allowing clearing downeast and partial
clearing across the north with a light westerly wind in its wake
on Wednesday. Dry weather should last into Thursday with a
tranquil night Wednesday night, then an increasing southerly
breeze on Thursday ahead of the next front.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Near term: CIGS will continue to thicken and lower late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of the approaching storm system.

Short range guidance is more aggressive with an earlier lower
level cloud deck at bhb and bgr, which corresponds with the
advection of pwat values well over 1” ahead of the front.

Adjustments were made to show a faster onset of MVFR CIGS at bhb
and bgr compared to model blends.

Llws will be significant over the lowest 2kft agl in the
vicinity of the occluded front and heaviest precipitation
Thursday morning. Wind shear and turbulence will also be
possible at higher flight altitudes, particularly in and near
the frontal precipitation band. Winds will turn from sse to
e ene by early Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds will
occur along the coast and near the occluded front Thursday
morning, with peak gusts up to around 45-50 knots. See the rest
of the discussion and hazards for more details regarding the
wind threat.

Short term: Thursday night: ifr to MVFR. Gusty NW wind.

Friday: MVFR, improving toVFR downeast. Gusty NW wind.

Friday night: becomingVFR across the area. Gusty NW breeze.

Saturday:VFR. Light NW breeze.

Saturday night:VFR, locally MVFR or ifr in fog late. Calm air.

Sunday: locally ifr in any fog early.VFR. Calm air.

Near term: we went ahead and converted the stm watch to a stm
wrng for all of our coastal marine zones. E winds, which are
currently lgt, will ramp up quickly ovrngt ahead of the
deepening sfc low apchg from the mid atlc states, likely
reaching stm force gusts prior to daybreak Thu and contg thru
most of the morn ahead of an occluded front. Behind the front by
aftn, winds will shift to the ssw and diminish to gale force.

Initially went with ww3 guidance, then went with 120 percent of
ww3 WV guidance late tngt into thu, with ww3 tending to underestimate
wv hts ovr outer mzs with fcst strong winds from the S thru e
wind quadrant. Gerling hanson plots for our outer buoys indicate
short fetch 4 to 6 sec WV pds giving way to storm wvs late tngt
thru Thu with pds of 11 to 14 sec.

Short term: a gusty NW wind Thursday night through Friday night
may require a sca. Winds should then diminish Saturday as high
pressure builds in, becoming tranquil Saturday night through
Monday as high pressure crests the area.

Tides coastal flooding
Coastal wave heights will rapidly increase overnight from 3 to
4 feet to 10 to 18 feet by Thursday morning, aided by winds
building to storm force. Rapidly intensifying low pressure, with
an expanding low level wind field, will track into the gulf of
maine Thursday afternoon with an increasing fetch to support 10
to 14 sec period swell. Wave and wind direction perpendicular
to the downeast coast during the high tide cycle, W sustained
southerly winds 20-30 kts, will increase surge and chances of
minor overwash in prone areas along the downeast coast. However
the best storm surge potential may be out of phase with the tmg
of high tide erly Thu aftn. A coastal flood statement may be
needed for 1pm high tide Thursday.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... High wind watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
for mez029-030.

Marine... Storm watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for

Near term... Vjn
short term... Bloomer
long term... Bloomer
aviation... Vjn bloomer
marine... Vjn bloomer
tides coastal flooding... Vjn

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
62144 - North Sea 95 mi51 min W 12 55°F 3 ft1004.3 hPa (+1.6)46°F

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.