Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lubec, ME

Version 3.4
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 8:15PM Friday April 10, 2020 12:23 PM +00 (12:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:24PMMoonset 6:38AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lubec CDP, ME
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Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 709 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Intense low pressure will track into the Bay of Fundy this morning and exit across the Maritimes this afternoon through Saturday. High pressure will slide south of the region Sunday. Strong low pressure will track to our west Monday then lift across the Quebec province Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 7am update . Increased snow this morning in northern Aroostook County, northern Penobscot and northern Piscataquis counties. The trowal wrapping back westward into the these areas will feature intense banding this morning with some locally heavy snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour. Decreased highs for today.

Previous discussion . The power outages will continue today with gusty northwest winds acting on the heavy wet snow on trees and lines. The amount of power outages in the forecast area appears to be the most since the wind storm of Oct 2017. The epic surface low is currently along the Washington County coast with a pressure of 970mb currently measured at the Machias airport. The low could be a few mb deeper offshore. This is close to an all time record low for the month of April in Maine. The system has already become vertically stacked with a trowal extending north and continuing to produce heavy banded snow. The dry slot is currently in Washington County extending northward into southern Aroostook County. Snow accumulations have reached well into double digits in Piscataquis County and will continue piling up in the Katahdin region and northern Aroostook for the balance of the night into Friday morning. Overall totals have been reduced from yesterday except in high terrain such as Piscataquis County and the Katahdin region. Amounts over 2 feet are expected within Baxter State Park. By this afternoon, snow will taper to snow showers with fairly unstable profiles up to 700mb. Graupel is possible this afternoon in the Bangor area. The winds will become gustier this afternoon as the mixing depth increases. By this afternoon, the strongest wind gusts will be towards Aroostook County where some gusts may approach 35 to 40 mph. Thus, new power outages may continue through the day.

For tonight, snow showers will taper off with some clearing towards Bangor and the Downeast region. Low clouds continue further north. Winds will decrease, but mixing will prevent lows dropping any further than the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. An upper level trof is forecast to swing across the region on Saturday w/colder air filtering down across the region. Mdl soundings indicating pretty dry above 850 mbs. So, leaned w/a partly sunny day across the northern 1/2 of the CWA and mostly sunny further w/the help of the WNW downsloping wind. It will breezy w/sustained winds of 10-15 mph. Daytime temperatures will average slightly below normal. High pres to the s will ridge across the region Saturday night w/clear skies through at least midnight. Light winds in conjunction w/the clear skies will allow for temperatures to drop sharply after sunset w/some sites such as the Allagash and NW Woods seeing upper teens before temperatures level w/increasing clouds overnight. Elsewhere across northern and western areas, overnight readings should be in the lower 20s. Across the central and downeast areas, overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s as high clouds move over the region.

A milder day looks to be possible for Easter Sunday w/the potential for melting to take place. Given the position of the high to the se and a return flow of from the SSW, this should allow for daytime temperatures to warm enough for some melting to take place. There is some discrepancy in this setup as the 00z GFS and Canadian guidance keep colder air in place at the llvls and show a weak disturbance lifting across the region bringing some light precip in the form of snow showers or perhaps rain/snow mix. The 00Z ECMWF was warmer matching close the NBM guidance w/a warmer scenario and dry. The 50th percentile shows max temperatures for Sunday to be in the 40s and 50s and this matches close to the ECMWF and NBM. The caveat to the warming will be the high clouds moving in from the sw ahead of an apchg warm front. Attm, given that the 50th percentile matches close to the ECMWF and NBM, decided to lean w/a warmer solution going for near normal daytime temperatures for Easter Sunday. Sunday night will clouds thickening up later at night as the warm front lifts n. Some light precip in the form of rain will move into the sw areas during the night and the press northward by Monday morning. The far nw areas could see a brief period of light snow before the changeover to rain w/warmer air making its way into the blyr.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A potent storm system will affect much of the eastern United States early next week, including northern and eastern Maine, where significant hydrology impacts are possible from heavy rain and snow melt. By 12z Monday, an upper level trough will be in place over the Northern Plains, with a strong subtropical jet streak extending around its southeastern periphery. The left exit region of the jet streak will provide substantial forcing for ascent during the day Monday within the warm sector of a strengthening low over eastern Ontario and Western Quebec. PWAT values in excess of an inch are anticipated, which should further help to facilitate a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Significant amounts of water remain in snow pack across far northern and western Maine, including the Saint John Valley. Surface dew points in the 40s combined with rainfall could lead to substantial melting and potential for flooding. See the hydrology section below for more details.

A cold front will pass through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with a dry slot forecast to move in aloft. The pressure gradient will remain strong at the surface and aloft on Tuesday, which along with the dry slot will aid in efficient mixing and potential for strong wind gusts. Nudged wind gusts above the model blend, but these may be conservative. Enough moisture may remain to initiate diurnal convective showers, which current GFS forecast soundings suggest.

The upper level pattern will remain unsettled through the rest of the week, with breezy conditions possible again on Wednesday. The upper level trough axis is expected to shift gradually eastward towards the Great Lakes by Thursday and the Northeast by the end of the week. Expect multiple shortwave troughs to round the longwave trough, leading to multiple chances for showers that are difficult to pinpoint this far out. Below normal heights from the trough also suggest below normal temperatures through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. NEAR TERM: LIFR vis in snow with IFR cigs continues through the morning north of HUL and GNR. Prevailing conditions towards the BGR and BHB will be MVFR cigs with tempo IFR vis in snowshowers today LLWS will continue this morning. mostly north of HUL, but will return this evening with strong NWerly winds aloft. All sites become VFR this evening with the possible exception of FVE.

SHORT TERM: Saturday into Sunday . Periods of MVFR across the northern terminals while VFR for KBGR for Saturday. VFR for all terminals Saturday night into Sunday. WNW Winds 10-15 mph for Saturday dropping below 10 mph Saturday night into early Sunday.

MVFR cigs arrive during Sunday night for all terminals w/IFR by early Monday. morning. Winds become SSW Sunday afternoon into Sunday night at 5-10 mph.

Rain for Monday w/IFR and MVFR conditions for all terminals. We could be seeing LLWS as well for Monday. Conditions are expected to gradually improve from s to n Monday night w/MVFR going to VFR by Tuesday morning. SSE winds 10-15 mph Monday to become SW Monday night.

Conditions could be dropping to MVFR and perhaps IFR later in the day on Tuesday w/light rain or snow, especially across the northern terminals. SW winds 10-15 mph for Tuesday.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Gales continue into early afternoon with strong westerly winds. Longer period south seas will slowly diminish this morning as winds become more westerly. An SCA will need to follow the gale through tonight. A few gale strength gusts will occur tonight towards 20nm offshore and further out.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will continue through Saturday evening, before winds and seas drop below SCA criteria Saturday night through Sunday. Winds will ramp up to SCA Sunday night and then gales by Monday along with high seas and rain with a passing storm system. Marginal gale or SCA conditions continue through Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY. Ice jams remain in place on the Aroostook River near Crouseville and Fort Fairfield. These jams are expected to remain in place into Saturday. Ice remains on the Allagash River and on the St.John River from Dickey back to the west. This latest snowfall has a high water content. Melting taking place on Saturday and continue into Sunday will lead to runoff into the rivers and streams. This will lead to some rises on the rivers/streams.

A significant event looks to be shaping up for the region Monday into Monday night w/rain and continued mild temperatures. There is projections from some of the long range guidance to bring over an inch of rainfall to the region. This rainfall combined with the snowmelt will increase the runoff and lead to significant rises on rivers and streams w/the potential for a number of the major rivers hitting near or above flood stage. Ice jams on the Aroostook, St. John and Allagash Rivers could break up and add to the flooding potential. There is time to assess this event w/the model guidance showing some good continuity for this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High astronomical tides continue for the next few cycles, but in the absence of another powerful surge, coastal flooding is not expected to recur.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029- 030. Wind Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030. MARINE . Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050>052.

Near Term . MCW Short Term . Hewitt Long Term . MStrauser Aviation . MCW/Hewitt Marine . MCW/Hewitt Hydrology . Tides/Coastal Flooding .

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
62150 41 mi84 min SE 13 46°F 3 ft1028.1 hPa (-0.6)44°F
62144 - North Sea 95 mi84 min SE 12 47°F 1027.8 hPa (-0.3)43°F

Airport Reports
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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