Sunday, August25, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Lubec, ME

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 8:22PM Monday August 26, 2019 12:24 AM +00 (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 4:46PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lubec CDP, ME
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location: 53.55, -0.08     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 252331 cca
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service caribou me
731 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

High pressure will remain across the region into Wednesday. A
cold front will cross the region Thursday with high pressure
building in Friday.

Near term through Monday
620 pm update: only chg this update is fcst hrly temps dwpts
into the ovrngt hrs based on trends seen in latest late aftn and
erly eve sfc obs. No chgs to fcst ovrngt lows attm.

Prev disc: strong high pressure overhead this afternoon with
light winds, dry air, seasonal temperatures, and barely a cloud
thanks to strong subsidence. Good radiational cooling expected
again tonight with high pressure persisting. Not quite as cool
in the north due to a slight moderation in the airmass, but as
cool or perhaps a touch cooler downeast because the center of
the high pressure is building south a bit tonight toward
downeast. Expect patchy fog again tonight, mainly in river
valleys and near lakes.

For Monday, surface high pressure persists, just migrating a bit
sw to SW maine. Again, look for low humidity and highs in the
low to mid 70s. However, looking for more clouds Monday than
Sunday due to a strong low pressure system passing east of us
from south to north through the canadian maritimes. A lot of
uncertainty still with the track of the low. Worst case
(furthest west) scenario would bring up to a quarter inch of
rain in eastport. Operational GFS is close to this solution.

However, GFS is an outlier and vast majority of models keep rain
easily east of the maine new brunswick border. Introduced just
a slight chance of rain for eastport with no pops elsewhere. Do
believe the low in the canadian maritimes will at least send a
shield of high clouds west into at least the eastern half of the
forecast area, and adjusted sky forecast up a bit to account
for this.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday
No significant weather is expected during this period with
surface ridging in control. Monday night will be another cool
night although it will trend up a few degrees due to the
increased cloud cover from the canadian maritime low. Cloud
cover will decrease during the overnight hours from west to east
as the low pulls off to the east. Another nice day on Tuesday
as a 500mb shortwave ridge axis crests over the region with
mostly clear skies and temperatures running a good 5 to 8
degrees above normal. Warming trend continues Tuesday night into
Wednesday with lows mostly in the 50s as heights continue to
rise. Southerly return flow is expected by Wednesday as a weak
pre-frontal trough approaches from quebec province. The forecast
challenge during this period over the last few periods was in
regards to the potential tropical moisture off the atlantic
being advected into the region ahead of the pre- frontal trough.

Confidence is still low with some solutions still having the
potential, but the ECMWF and operational GFS have trended
further east with the moisture plume. This means confidence has
decreased overall.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Period will be dominated by broad cyclonic flow with near normal
temperatures and below average precipitation. Wednesday night
through Thursday the pre-front trough and surface cold front
will push through the state. This will bring a period of showers
with QPF amounts expected to remain below .25" at this time but
this could trend higher depending on the coastal tropical
moisture fetch. Quiet weather on Friday with the potential for
an additional cold front Friday night into Saturday with more
light rain showers. Potential still exists for another shortwave
trough later in the weekend and showers. Every trough and
surface cold front will trend temperatures down a few degrees
with a general cooling pattern from Thursday through Sunday.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Near term:VFR into the evening with very light winds. Patchy
valley fog late tonight could lead to MVFR or perhaps ifr at taf
sites typically more susceptible to fog... For example kpqi,
khul, and kbgr. Kpqi and khul had the fog Sunday morning, but
not right near kbgr. However, kbgr will have lighter winds
tonight than last night, so believe fog more likely tonight at
kbgr than last night.

Fog dissipates quickly Monday morning, withVFR and light winds
expected during the day Monday.

Short term:
Monday night-Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night-Thursday... MVFR or lower possible in any showers.

Thursday night-Friday... BecomingVFR Thursday night.

Near term: conditions remaining below small craft. Northeast
breeze up to 15 kt today weakens tonight. No fog.

Short term: conditions will remain below small craft during this
period. Confidence has continued to trend down on a tropical
wave moving up the atlantic coast this week. Currently any
tropical development seems very low, thus not expecting any
large swells from an offshore system later this week. High
pressure will be the dominate feature over the coastal waters
until Thursday when a weak cold front approaches.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Vjn
short term... Dumont
long term... Dumont
aviation... Vjn dumont
marine... Vjn dumont

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
62150 41 mi84 min SE 15 66°F 1 ft1020.7 hPa (+0.0)58°F
62144 - North Sea 95 mi84 min SE 12 71°F 1 ft1020.3 hPa (-0.1)56°F

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.