Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lubec, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:25PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 2:42 PM -01 (15:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:12AMMoonset 11:51AM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lubec CDP, ME
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location: 53.55, -0.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 181419 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 919 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Canadian high pressure will move east this morning. Low pressure from the southwest will approach this afternoon and track across Quebec tonight. High pressure and Arctic air builds into the region from late Wednesday through Thursday night and then begins to move east on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 920 am update . Sfc low currently located over the nrn tip of Lk Huron with wmfnt extending thru nrn NY state with light snow in warm advection acrs the northeast. Light snow is currently being reported in Manchester NH with light echoes showing up on radar into swrn Maine but likely just falling as virga based on 12z raob from KGYX. Hv delayed pops ovr wrn areas by about an hour or two this aftn but no other chgs needed with this update. Still expecting widespread 3-5 inches of snow acrs all but Downeast.

Prev disc blo . Snow will be mdt attms between 5 and 9 pm, but alg the coast and interior downeast areas, sn will mix with sleet and rain, even chg to all rn briefly alg the immediate Downeast coast. This mix and/or rn reduces sn totals ovr these areas. Otherwise, greatest sn totals look to be ovr the Cntrl ME highlands areas where some lctns could get upwards to 6 inches prior to snfl winding down by late tngt with the rest of the adv area receiving between 3 to 5 inches.

Gusty Srly Winds with a llvl jet late this aftn and erly eve could result in patchy blsn msly on E-W roadways N of where sn mixes with rn and with gusts reaching arnd 40 mph over the high trrn of Downeast ME. Otherwise, much warmer hi temps tdy will be at erly eve, with temps rising a little more during the ovrngt before falling very late tngt behind a first cold/occluded front.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Highlights in the short range include the continued chance for blowing snow across the north and into the Central Highlands Wednesday, as well as possible snow squalls during Wed afternoon.

Snow from previous system will be tapering off in the early morning hours Wednesday as dry air infiltrates across northern New England. Simulated WV shows this plume well, with a brief lull in wind speeds before shifting south to west and again increasing through noontime. Blowing and drifting snow remains a threat, especially w/ new dry snow the night prior. Steep low lvl lapse rates around 9c/km will help mix stiff WNW winds toward the surface across much of the forecast area. Best mixing occurs during the early afternoon as indicated by both NAM and GFS soundings up to 2km. Kept much of previous forecast intact, but did increase by a knot or two with gusts up to 35 mph possible. This was based on the NBM continuing to support these wind gusts, as well as some hires guidance picking up on higher winds . ARW is the extreme, showing pockets of 45 mph gusts.

Wednesday afternoon will also feature the chance of some snow squalls. For time being, best signal among the CMC, NMM, and SREF is across the North Woods, St. John Valley, and central Aroostook. However, cannot rule out lighter isolated snow showers developing across central areas throughout the afternoon. Kept PoPs at low chance given the drier surface environment in NW flow. As pointed out by swing shift, the St. Lawrence River is quite free of ice. This can be observed via vis satellite imagery and Canadian Coast Guard ice charts, so the showers could tap into this open moisture source and form as streamers across the north. Snow squall parameter highlights a large area of possible impact, but may be keying high on the low level instability and environment winds, while again, moisture is lackluster in the equation.

Amid the cool and dry NW flow, another cold night with sub zero temps is expected as skies clear Wed night. The cold air mass lingers through the day Thursday with high temperatures struggling to exit the single digits above zero across the north and teens Downeast. This sets up Thursday night to have lower lows with some negative teen values creeping towards interior Downeast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Low pressure passing over Hudson Bay will cut off the bitter air flow from the west Friday. Flow becomes SW as a warming trend sets up through late week and the weekend. Conditions are expected to remain dry for most of the long term amid widespread high temps in the 30s and some 40s in the Bangor Region and Downeast.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. NEAR TERM: Tdy . VFR all sites, then becmg IFR all TAF sites in sn mid to late aftn, contg into the eve. Downeast sites mixing with or chgng to sleet and rain by erly eve.

Tngt . IFR clgs/vsbys all TAF sites this eve will improve SW to NE as precip ends and moves E of the area to MVFR by late tngt and VFR by daybreak Wed.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday . MVFR cigs possible in snow showers with blowing snow also possible at northern terminals. Vis may be reduced to IFR in stronger SHSN. VFR Downeast. West winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts during the afternoon.

Wednesday night to Thursday . VFR. Modestly breezy west wind gusting up to 15-20 kts during the day.

Thursday night to Friday night . Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals Friday night. Light to modestly breezy SW wind.

Saturday . VFR with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals early. Modestly breezy west winds.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Will cont with gale wrng ovr the outer waters and a strong SCA for the inner bay/harbor waters as S winds increase durg the day, reaching a max at erly eve. Winds and wvs will warrant an SCA for our outer MZ waters late tngt after the gale wrng xprs. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts.

SHORT TERM: Strong SCA conditions will likely be ongoing as winds increase to around 30 kt during the day Wednesday and waves remain elevated 5 to 8 ft. These conditions will taper Wed night, falling below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon. Light to moderate freezing spray will be possible through Thursday as a cold airmass remains in the region.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for MEZ002-005-006-011-032. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for MEZ001-003-004-010-015-031. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ050-051.



Near Term . Farrar/VJN Short Term . Cornwell Long Term . Cornwell Aviation . Farrar/VJN/Cornwell Marine . Farrar/VJN/Cornwell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
62150 41 mi103 min SW 23 46°F 4 ft1012.6 hPa (-1.6)39°F
62144 - North Sea 95 mi103 min WSW 19 45°F 7 ft1013.2 hPa (-1.7)40°F

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.