Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lubec, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:25PM Thursday December 5, 2019 8:59 PM -01 (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:34PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lubec CDP, ME
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location: 53.55, -0.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 052155 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 455 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure will exit to the east this evening. Another low will track south of the region later Friday through Friday night. High pressure will build across the region later Saturday through Sunday. A warm front will cross the region later Sunday night through early Monday. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Light and variable winds amid the mid-level trough will increase and become westerly tonight. The tightly packed pressure gradient over the Northeast aligned w/ 500mb jet will advect some cooler air into the region. As a result, the weak CAA mixes some of these winds into the lower levels, with gusts generally 15-20 mph. Have kept the mention of snow showers in the western high terrain as this feature moves through. Afternoon cloud streets indicate some flurries may have fallen today, but been overshot by radar.

Overall, the column dries out Friday morning, with overnight snow showers tapering. Agree with the night crew that the afternoon window for a convective snow shower or two is present, but overlap between lift and moisture is limited temporally. What initial burst of CAA which occurred overnight settles, with temperatures generally following a diurnal trend into Friday evening. Skies will thin over Downeast for some sun before again clouding over as low pressure begins to pass to the south.

Position of this low has continued to trend a little further north via the ECMWF, with GFS/Canadian keeping bulk of precip south, just clipping immediate Downeast coast. More on this in the short term discussion, but maintaining an area of isolated snow showers into Downeast late Fri afternoon.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The clipper system will track across the southern Gulf of Maine Friday night. The northern edge of the precipitation shield could clip Downeast areas with a chance of light snow early Friday night, though uncertainty still exists regarding whether the northern edge of the precipitation shield reaches Downeast areas or remains across the Gulf of Maine. Any snow accumulations Downeast appear to be an inch or less, with the better chances toward the coast. Cloud cover should then decrease later Friday night Downeast. Mostly/partly cloudy skies are expected across northern areas Friday night. High pressure will build east toward the region Saturday with mostly/partly cloudy skies north, mostly sunny skies Downeast. High pressure will build across the region Saturday night with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies north, mostly clear Downeast. High pressure then exits across the Maritimes Sunday. Clouds will increase Sunday. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Saturday/Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes across central Quebec province Sunday night, with a warm front crossing the region late. Expect a chance of snow north, with a chance of snow/rain Downeast, Sunday night with the warm front. The cold front will remain nearly stationary Monday while low pressure intensifies along the front across the Great Lakes and tracks northeast. The low will track northeast along the cold front, across Quebec province, Monday through Tuesday. Warm advection will persist across the region Monday through Tuesday. Precipitation will transition to rain, from south to north, Monday. Precipitation then remains in the form of rain Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday night through early Wednesday. The steadier precipitation will exit across the Maritimes in advance of the cold front. Any lingering precipitation will transition back to snow or snow showers in the wake of the cold front. The extent and duration of the warm-up remains uncertain, though melting of the snowpack will occur. Much colder temperatures will occur in the wake of the cold front, with a chance of snow showers across mostly the north and mountains later Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region later Thursday with much colder temperatures. Expect generally partly sunny skies north with mostly sunny skies Downeast Thursday. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Monday/Tuesday. Temperatures will fall Wednesday in the wake of the cold front, with much below normal level temperatures Thursday.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. NEAR TERM: Ceilings will run right along the VFR/MVFR criteria through the evening across Aroostook County terminals. BGR and BHB remain VFR into early Fri with thinning clouds during the morning hours. Westerly winds increase this evening and overnight, gusting 15 to 20 kts.

SHORT TERM: Friday night . Occasional MVFR possible across the north and mountains. MVFR/IFR possible Downeast with a chance of light snow early, then VFR late.

Saturday through Saturday night . Occasional MVFR possible across the north and mountains early Saturday. Otherwise, VFR.

Sunday . Generally VFR. MVFR possible late across northern areas.

Sunday night . VFR/MVFR early. Lowering to IFR/LIFR overnight with a chance of snow north and a chance of snow/rain Downeast.

Monday . IFR/LIFR. Precipitation changing to rain from south to north. Gusty south winds.

Tuesday . IFR/LIFR with rain. Gusty south winds in advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front begins to cross the region Tuesday night with precipitation transitioning back to snow or snow showers in the wake of the front.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Winds will increase to SCA this evening and overnight, close to 30kts on non-intracoastal zones. Waves will increase 3 to 5 feet. Winds fall below SCA briefly Friday afternoon as wind shifts W to NW.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions develop Friday night then persist into Saturday night. Conditions below small craft advisory levels early Sunday, with small craft advisory conditions then possible late. Visibilities could be reduced in light snow early Friday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term . Cornwell Short Term . Norcross Long Term . Norcross Aviation . Cornwell/Norcross Marine . Cornwell/Norcross


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
62144 - North Sea 95 mi60 min SW 35 48°F 8 ft1007.2 hPa43°F

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.