Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Akutan, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 10:01AMSunset 3:44PM Thursday December 12, 2019 5:27 AM AKST (14:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 8:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ171 Unalaska Bay- 332 Am Akst Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory today and Friday...
Today..W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..W wind 15 kt becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 kt becoming se 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Akutan, AK
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location: 54.23, -165.53     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 120508 CCA AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 403 PM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A low south of Kodiak Island continues to track to the northwest today. The main front associated with this low is ahead of the low and moving across the eastern Bering Sea. A secondary low is stretched across the north Gulf coast bringing rain to that region. The 250 mb jet stream is running south of this low and will remain south of the region. This will keep generally mild air over southern Alaska for a number of days.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Model guidance remains in very good agreement through the remainder of the week. The only item keeping them from being in excellent agreement is that the NAM is a little bit too fast in bringing in the front to the northern Gulf on Friday.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Low pressure is moving north across the Gulf of Alaska toward the north Gulf Coast. Winds over the northern Gulf will remain easterly between the 40 to 50 mph range before diminishing Thursday morning. A weak pressure gradient has established a Mat Valley wind with gusts expected up to 25 mph out of the northeast. The Copper River Basin looks to stay on the cooler side with patchy fog being a concern as offshore flow has weakened since yesterday. This will limit the amount of drying and subsequent scouring of fog out of the Copper Basin until at least Thursday morning.

Small waves of energy are rotating around this system although, without upper level support, they don't look to provide the precipitation rates we've seen the last few weeks. The strongest wave of energy is possible late Thursday into Friday where the Copper River Basin could see a few snow showers with minor snowfall accumulations. Due to the warm air push with the low coming towards the north Gulf, coastal locations from Kodiak Island to western Prince William Sound will continue to remain under the influence of rain with higher elevations seeing snowfall. Most locations on the leeward side of the mountains will remain dry due to downsloping from cross-barrier flow (flow that is perpendicular to the mountains instead of parallel) so expect limited inland precipitation across most of Southcentral.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A stationary low in the Gulf of Alaska will bring scattered showers to Bristol Bay and coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta through Friday. Across the Alaska Peninsula tonight, a cooler air mass across the Bering will change precipitation over to snow west of Nelson Lagoon. Gusty northerly flow persisting overnight will result in areas of blowing snow along the western Peninsula. Winds taper off early Thursday as the low center lifts northeast; however, precipitation continues as low pressure remains dominant across the Bering and Gulf.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). Two low pressure centers will keep active weather across the Bering through Thursday with gusty northerly conditions across the eastern waters tonight tapering down on Thursday as the low south of the Alaska Peninsula lifts northeast. The next stronger front moves up to the western Aleutians Thursday night. This system will bring brief blowing snow conditions for Shemya as it crosses to the southern Bering Otherwise. this system will bring mixed precipitation across the rest of the central and eastern Aleutians along with gusty gale force winds through Friday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

For the Bering: Weather starts out quiet on Friday with a high pressure ridge in place over the Bering Sea. On Saturday, a strong low pressure system will skirt the southern side of the Central Aleutian Islands as it moves west to east. It will bring gale force winds to the area as it goes, exiting Sunday. Model agreement is good with this system and we are confident in the forecast.

For the Gulf of Alaska: A low will be present in the Western Gulf of Alaska on Friday, bring a large area of small craft advisory winds with isolated gales to much of the gulf. It will also keep sea states elevated. The low moves ashore over Southwest AK Friday night, calming winds and waves for Saturday morning. Later Saturday into Sunday another front enters from the southwest, bringing gales and small craft advisories back to the gulf. We are confident in this forecast as model guidance looks to be on track.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models have come into better, though not perfect, agreement for the long term. Expect a continued active pattern over the Aleutians, while quieter weather will persist over Southcentral. Saturday, a low in the western Gulf of AK will continue to swing a series of weak fronts toward the North Gulf Coast, bringing periods of precipitation into Sunday. Precipitation will be concentrated on southeast facing slopes, mainly on the Kenai Peninsula and the Alaska Range. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Yukon and interior AK will strengthen, and conditions will trend colder over inland areas of the Southern Mainland.

Out west, a strong low south of the central Aleutians will swing an occluded front across the chain and generate a healthy round of precipitation over the Aleutians, the AKPEN and likely into the Southwest Mainland Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation chances look highest in the Bristol Bay area, with the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta likely staying drier in offshore flow. As the occluded front pushes toward the Southwest Mainland, relatively cold air in place over the mainland will enhance the pressure gradient, and strong south/southeast winds are possible from Kamishak Bay to as far north as the Kilbuck Mountains. There is indication that a triple point low will form south of the AKPEN late Saturday, enhancing precipitation over Kodiak Island and along the south/southeast facing slopes of the Alaska/Aleutian Range. However, it's hard to have much certainty this far out and with run-to-run model inconsistencies.

As that secondary low pushes northeastward Sunday into Monday, expect a swath of precipitation and strong winds in the northern Gulf of Alaska. In addition, expect another round of precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula Sunday night into Monday . then precipitation will likely spread toward Prince William Sound and eastward along the coast Monday.

Another low will approach the western Aleutians Monday, and push an occluded front across the chain through Tuesday. Since there's still some uncertainty with the progression of the low downstream, it's tough to discern how the upstream low will affect the Southwest Mainland. Models differ on whether the front will dissipate before reaching the mainland.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale 119 120 130 131 139 155 165 178. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KH MARINE/LONG TERM . BB/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
UNLA2 - 9462620- Unalaska, AK 59 mi64 min SSW 7 G 12 33°F 42°F995.8 hPa

Wind History for Unalaska, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK58 mi32 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds32°F23°F69%996.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADU

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)
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1 day ago3CalmCalmW9CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmW6S43S3S4CalmW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Akun Bay, Akun Island, Alaska
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Akun Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 10:13 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:47 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:07 PM AKST     3.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:23 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:55 PM AKST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.20.61.21.72.12.52.82.93333.13.13.23.23.232.62.11.50.80.2-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Trident Bay, Akun Island, Alaska
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Trident Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 10:12 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:46 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:10 AM AKST     4.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:24 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:18 PM AKST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.63.13.43.63.73.83.83.83.94443.83.42.82.11.30.60-0.2-0.20.20.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.