Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sand Point, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 031400 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Lingering showers have diminished across the North Gulf Coast this morning as a mature complex low in the Gulf exits southward. Low stratus and fog over Cook Inlet has moved over Anchorage early this morning. Along the coastal locations, the northerly outflow pattern continues out of the usual gap areas across Southcentral. Farther west, conditions have improved from blizzard criteria across the Southwest mainland, Aleutians, and Pribilofs overnight. However, strong winds and lingering snowfall continue early this morning. Brief upper level ridging is set up behind this system across the central Bering and Aleutians, with the next storm force front just west of Shemya ready to enter the western Bering.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern over the Bering Sea over the next few day. By Friday, models start to diverge with the development of a triple point low near Kodiak Island. There is still some uncertainty in the track and strength of the low position and whether this will bring snowfall or downsloping to Southcentral by the end of the week.

AVIATION.

PANC . Freezing fog over Cook Inlet has drifted into the terminal this morning. Conditions should improve by this afternoon with light northerly winds and VFR conditions expected.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Thursday Night) .

The weather begins to turn a bit more active by the tail end of the forecast period Thursday night into Friday. Until then, gap winds, freezing spray in many of the marine areas, and freezing fog around Cook Inlet will be the primary hazards.

Freezing fog has developed around the Anchorage area, down Turnagain Arm, and along the western foothills of the Kenai Mountains this morning. The dissipation of at least some of the high cloud cover that started out the night last night is likely at least part of the cause of the fog, along with lingering moisture. With the strengthening March sun, the fog should dissipate, or at least lift by around midday today in most areas. However, the fog is likely to redevelop again tonight with very little change in the large scale weather pattern expected between now and tonight.

With the renewed shot of colder air, freezing spray (with localized areas of heavy freezing spray) will be an issue both today as the winds increase through the gaps through Thursday morning, and then again after the next front moves through on Friday through Friday night. The freezing spray concern will be felt even around Kodiak Island. For most of the rest of Southcentral, it should simply mean continued below normal temperatures through the forecast period.

The gap winds will keep conditions windy through Resurrection Bay and Seward, the Whittier area, Thompson Pass, and the Copper River Delta through Thursday morning. Gusts to 60 mph are possible through Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta, with gusts to 40 mph possible for Whittier and the Seward area.

The next bout of snow is expected from Thursday night through Saturday morning for portions of the area. Since this moisture will be largely devoid of warm air, as it will be a cold air mass replacing a warmer, but still below freezing air mass, most areas, even along the coast should see at least mostly snow. The snow will begin around midnight Thursday night as a front eventually succumbs to a low developing along it. The low center will track just south of Kodiak Island by Friday morning, but Gulf moisture with temperatures right around freezing could make for several inches of accumulation across Kodiak Island. The snow will quickly spread north along the coastal mountains Friday morning, but Anchorage, the Valley, and the western Kenai will start off largely downsloped, with little in the way of any precipitation expected. That could change come Friday evening into Friday night with the approach of an upper level wave and the Gulf low moving away effectively ending the downsloping. While we are generally looking at a 1 to 4 inch snowfall event as of now, that remains a highly uncertain forecast. Stay tuned for updates.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2).

The radars at Bethel (PABC) and King Salmon (PAKC) have been active overnight and early this morning. Northerly and northwesterly winds have been strong enough to causing drifting and blowing snow. The tight pressure gradient over southwest Alaska will continue into the afternoon, then it will slacken and there will be a lull. Thursday morning the winds will shift as a new front moves into the eastern Bering. Another batch of snow is forecast for Southwest Alaska on Thursday. The potential exception will be the Alaska Peninsula which could see a rain snow mix.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2).

In the wake of the recent frontal passage, northerly flow has set up over the eastern Bering. Meanwhile, a new front is pushing into the western Bering complete with a "baroclinic leaf" on satellite imagery. Early this morning, the ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) data detected gale force winds with the enhanced northerly flow over the eastern Bering and the new front impacting the western Aleutians. There is a a weak transient ridge over the Central Aleutians. However, the pattern is so progressive the new front will be over the eastern Aleutians and moving into the western Alaskan mainland Thursday afternoon. Expect more unsettled weather for the Bering and the Aleutians the next 48 hrs.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday).

Bering Sea: A low and trailing front approaching the Alaska Peninsula from the west will bring widespread westerly gales with an area of storm force winds and 30 feet seas moving with the low, or north of the Eastern Aleutians on Fri morning. Winds decrease to gales over the Eastern Bering by Sat with seas decreasing to 20 feet. Another strong front moves north across the Western Bering/Aleutians late Fri into Sat. High end westerly gale force to possibly storm force winds and seas building to 25 feet over the Western Bering are expected for Sat. Some model uncertainty persists, but overall confidence is good. A low approaches the Central Aleutians from the North Pacific early Sun with southerly gales spreading into the central Bering with seas remaining in the mid-20s through Sun. Up to storm force winds are again possible for parts of the central Bering with this next system on Sun, but confidence for these higher winds is lower by this point in the forecast.

Gulf of Alaska: A low and front trailing to the south of Kodiak Island move into the western Gulf Fri with northwesterly gales moving in over the western bering just behind low and front. Waves build to 10 to 15 feet in the western Gulf on Fri and up to 20 feet in the southern Gulf by early Sat. Confidence for this portion of the forecast is good, but uncertainty for the low track increases as it drifts towards the central/northern Gulf on Sat. There is better confidence for a region of at least northwesterly gales to continue southwest of the low near the southeastern Gulf, but the region of highest winds will depend on the uncertain low track. By Sun, confidence increases for the low to exit into the North Pacific with northerly winds decreasing to small crafts or lower and seas subsiding to 10 feet by Sun evening.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday) .

The models are in surprisingly good agreement at the start of this forecast period, with only moderate agreement through the weekend. The active pattern is expected to continue.

Models keep a strong Arctic/Siberian upper level low rotating around northeast Russia with an attendant trough stretching southeastward across western Alaska and the eastern Aleutians at the start of the period. A shortwave moving along the trough extending from the aforementioned upper low will help force a lower level circulation which may develop over the Alaskan Peninsula and track into the northern Gulf. While details are very much uncertain with this and even farther out, there could be another trough moving across the Aleutians and Bering at the end of the forecast period.

Overall, expect milder temperatures for this time period with readings still slightly below normal but closer to the normal values of where they typically are this time of the year which is near 32 degrees F for Anchorage. This pattern could potentially mean a snowier regime for Southcentral and in particular across the Anchorage Bowl. However, many factors have to come together for Anchorage to get the snow, though, the storm track looks favorable with model guidance mostly bringing lows near and into Prince William Sound with details of each uncertain.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 181. MARINE . Storm Warning 177 178 185 411 Gale Warning 130 131 138 150 155 165 171-76 179 180 181 412-14 Heavy Freezing Spray 121 130 160 165 179 180 185 411 412 414 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ALH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PJS MARINE/LONG TERM . AS/NR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Sand Point, AK

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NW20 G26

NW23

NW19 G23

NW22 G28

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NW22 G27

NW27

NW33 G40

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NW31 G41

NW24 G32

NW27 G34

NW24 G29

NW31 G38

NW26 G35

NW25 G34

NW29 G37

NW29 G39

NW23 G30

W10 G13

NW21 G27

W13 G23

N28 G35

N32 G39

1 day ago

SW5 G9

SW13 G20

SW13 G18

SW11 G16

W6 G11

SW10 G15

SW13 G26

SW14 G21

SW15 G21

SW13 G20

SW13 G19

SW12 G19

SW8 G11

W12 G15

SW4 G9

W4 G10

SW13 G16

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NW13

NW11 G16

NW18 G23

2 days ago

S9 G14

S6 G9

SE5 G14

S13 G22

S11 G17

S14 G19

S14 G25

S16 G23

S22 G33

SW19 G33

SW18 G28

W11 G15

W20 G25

SW9 G17

SW9 G14

SW8 G12

SW8 G13

SW10 G13

SW10 G14

SW9 G14

SW10 G17

SW15 G20

SW19 G26

SW15 G21

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sand Point, AK	19 mi	47 min	NNW 21 G 30	9.00 mi	Light Snow and Breezy	20°F	13°F	74%	1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)

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NW33

NW35 G40

NW28 G42

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NW29 G48

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NW26

NW29 G33

N33 G39

N34 G43

N36 G42

NW29 G37

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NW35 G41

NW33 G39

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NW50 G57

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NW27 G36

NW17 G26

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NW21 G30

1 day ago

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SW26 G33

SW24 G31

SW21 G34

SW8 G16

SW17 G22

SW17 G24

SW17 G27

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SW14 G20

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SW12 G18

W9 G18

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S14 G25

S26 G32

S25 G32

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S33 G40

S29 G38

S31 G39

SW28 G36

SW18 G28

W10

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SW18 G24

W15 G20

SW9

SW14 G22

SW15 G22

SW24 G35

SW28 G36

SW30 G38

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SW32 G40

SW32 G37

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Tide / Current Tables for Albatross Anchorage, Balboa Bay, Alaska

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