Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sand Point, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 140017 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 417 PM AKDT Thu Aug 13 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper-level low over the northern Gulf, combined with a ridge of high pressure building across western and northern Alaska, is producing a general northeasterly flow across Southcentral and Southwest today. A shortwave embedded within the flow is sliding over Southcentral today. This feature will aid in the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Convective development along with shower activity can already be seen over parts of the Chugach and Wrangell Mountains via satellite and radar imagery. Areas of fog this morning from Talkeetna south to Kenai and Homer have lifted and diminished in coverage; however, there is still some low stratus sitting over parts of the Susitna Valley and Cook Inlet this afternoon. This will bear watching as clearing conditions and a weak up inlet flow will likely produce another round of fog overnight tonight. To the south, an area of low pressure well south of Kodiak Island is moving east and is pushing a warm front toward the southwestern Gulf. Conditions are also mainly clear and dry over the Southwest. Valley fog that developed overnight in places like King Salmon and Aniak has also dissipated.

For the Bering and Aleutians, a vertically stacked low continues to slowly drift east and is near Dutch Harbor this afternoon. Plenty of low clouds and showers accompany this feature. Widespread low stratus also sits over the western and northern Bering, trapped underneath the ridge. Mid-level clouds are moving over the far western Aleutians in association with a front attached to a Kamchatka low.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in decent agreement going into the weekend with some subtle differences. The first is the movement of the upper-level low over the eastern Aleutians and the surface low south of Kodiak Island. Both the American and International models now have these features pushing east on Friday in association with a strengthening and amplifying jet. The upper-level then partially phases with the low in the Gulf and ejects as a shortwave over the Alaska Peninsula. In addition, there are differences in the position of the Gulf low and timing in the transit of the shortwave and just how far east the ridge to the north builds over the interior of the state, but any solution looks to keep unsettled weather well out of the forecast area with an overall dry, warm, and windy solution for Southwest and Southcentral. The position of these features will have an outcome on just how strong the winds peak through Saturday. Hi-res guidance is also indicating the development of strong and gusty outflow winds late Friday through Saturday.

Out west, the upper-level ridge will strengthen and amplify in the wake of the aforementioned low and ahead of a deepening upper- level low and surface Kamchatka low. Again, there are some differences in the strength of these features and timing of when its associated front reaches the eastern Bering Sunday.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the nighttime hours. A light westerly sea breeze will develop for this afternoon and evening. A stray shower is also possible in the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds will remain light but turn southerly by late evening into the overnight hours. This will help draw moisture and low clouds up Cook Inlet. Low stratus and/ or patchy fog is expected to move up inlet through the overnight hours. Right now, it appears more likely for low stratus to advect over the terminal; however, there is the potential, albeit low confidence, for an hour of two of fog (14z-16z).

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A weather pattern that will provide hot and windy conditions is developing headed into the weekend. High pressure will move into Southcentral AK, while the low pressure system currently over the Alaska Peninsula moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Friday. This low will merge with and reinvigorate a weak low already in place along the Gulf Coast. This low will hold in place into Sunday.

The setup of high pressure inland and low pressure in the Gulf will tighten the pressure gradient through Southcentral AK and produce strong north to northeasterly winds through areas like the Susitna Valley including Broad Pass, Palmer and the lower Matanuska Valley, and gap winds along the coast in places like Whittier and Valdez. Also of note with this setup, strong high pressure will create very warm temperatures for this time of year, with the highest temperatures in the Lower Susitna Valley. Temperatures there will push 80 degrees over the weekend. Daily maximum temperatures in some areas through the Susitna Valley and Anchorage Bowl are in danger of being broken this weekend.

Low pressure in the Gulf is expected to shift south on Sunday, easing the pressure gradient and allowing winds to relax a bit, though it will still be breezy Sunday. High pressure will still be in place, keeping it warm and dry through the weekend. All in all, a resurgence of summer is in store this weekend, with some wind. Be careful if you are out this weekend due to dry and windy conditions. Otherwise, enjoy this one last hurrah of summer as we can expect that fall conditions will soon return.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An upper level ridge is expected to dominate the pattern for the forecast period with practically all of Southwest remaining dry with gorgeous weather besides for a possible shower in the western Alaska Range late today to this evening. Therefore, the main story will be sunny conditions with warming temperatures (upper 60s to 70s) each day. There may even a spot of near 80F Saturday afternoon. However, along with the nice weather will come increasingly windier conditions for Friday and Saturday. As the upper level ridge changes orientation tomorrow to more north to south, this will setup a tight pressure gradient across Southwest Alaska. The tight pressure gradient will be caused by an upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska and another upper level low approaching the western Aleutian Chain. As a result, breezy conditions are expected for Friday with minimum relative humidities in the 30s to 40s for inland locations. Saturday is the better chance for windier conditions along with lower minimum relative humidity values in the 20s in which the criteria for a Red Flag Warning may be met. Fuels do not meet the criteria at this time for a Red Flag Warning to be issued but guidance is trending in the direction that Saturday could need a Red Flag Warning. Clear skies at night will help aid radiative cooling but with the windy conditions, this may keep relative humidity values from reaching there full potential.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The upper level low that has been slowly moving eastward through the southern Bering Sea will finally move out of the area and into the North Pacific. As it does so though, it will continue to bring periods of rain through this evening to Dutch Harbor with rain continuing for areas east including Sand Point and Cold Bay through Friday morning.

An upper level ridge that has been sitting across the northern Bering Sea in an east to west orientation will shift to a more north to south orientation over the next two days. As a result, day cloud phase distinction satellite is already showing the back edge of the clouds heading for the Pribilof Islands. With this pattern in place, mostly sunny skies are expected for the Pribilofs for Friday into Saturday.

Further west, a gale force frontal system will move through the western Aleutian Chain beginning this evening. The gale force winds are expected to begin early Friday afternoon through Friday night for the western Aleutian Chain before pushing north into the Bering early Saturday. Accompanying the frontal system will be rain showers with the steadiest and heaviest rain expected for the western Aleutian Chain Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. This system has also had plenty of lightning associated with it over the North Pacific. As a result, have added in the slight chance for a thunderstorm mainly on the Pacific side of the Chain for Friday morning through Friday evening. This risk is very slim but due to the dynamics with this system coming northward, there is the potential for a lightning strike south of the Chain on Friday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Aleutians/Bering: A North Pacific low and front move across the Aleutians and Bering through Tue. While the track and development of the low are mixed through the end of the forecast, confidence is good for showers and small craft winds and waves to move with the front over the Aleutians and Bering. Some local gales may be possible West of St Matthew Island and diminishing Sun as the winds wrap around the low through Tue. As the front enters the Eastern Bering Mon, the winds dissipate. Northerly small craft winds and waves continue over the Western Bering behind the low through Tue.

Gulf of AK: A Southern Gulf low dissipates over the North Pacific by Tue. Confidence is fair for showers and Northerly small craft winds and waves over the Western Gulf for Sun. Several troughs move around the dissipating low through Tue. Confidence is good for local Easterly small craft winds to develop along the North Gulf Coast through Tue. A new front enters the Western Gulf for Tue. Confidence is good for showers and Southerly small craft winds over the Western Gulf for Mon and Tue.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Mon through Thu).

There is good model agreement that the amplified ridge will begin to break down on Monday, with one piece lifting northeast and phasing with the North American ridge and the second retreating south over the North Pacific. This transition comes as a result of the Bering low sliding southeast over the AKPEN, lifting a second upper-level wave into the Gulf of Alaska. Upstream, yet another upper-level low dives into the Bering from Siberia. These features will all work to establish a long-wave trough right where the ridge was over the weekend. The resulting flow will turn southeasterly over the Gulf and Southcentral, ushering in moisture and increasing clouds and chances for showers late Monday into Tuesday. The pattern is similar over the Southwest where a southerly flow ahead of a frontal system will also bring increased chances for clouds and precipitation early next week. By mid- week, the upper-level low in the Gulf remains as a ridge tries to build over the interior from the north. This pattern would result in a building of the thermal trough with warmer and drier conditions under a northerly flow. Periodic easterly waves transiting the region would bring a chance for afternoon and evening showers across Southcentral mid-week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale 411 177 178. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . TM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BJB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/TM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK	18 mi	57 min	ENE 12 G 15	53°F	51°F		1011.7 hPa
KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK	97 mi	57 min	NNE 9.9 G 19	54°F	51°F		1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Sand Point, AK

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NE6 G10

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1 day ago

NE7 G11

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2 days ago

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E6 G10

NE7 G10

NE11 G15

NE6 G10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sand Point, AK	19 mi	49 min	Var 3	6.00 mi	Rain Fog/Mist	53°F	50°F	89%	1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Albatross Anchorage, Balboa Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Beaver Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon

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