Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sand Point, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 6:33PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 2:42 PM AKST (23:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:21AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ155 South Of The Ak Peninsula Castle Cape To Cape Sarichef- 344 Am Akst Wed Mar 3 2021
.gale warning through Thursday...
Today..NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes in the morning. Freezing spray.
Tonight..NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
Thu..SW wind 35 kt. From the shumagin islands e, sw wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
Thu night..W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Fri..W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
Sat..W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Sun..S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sand Point, AK
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location: 55.58, -160.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 031400 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Lingering showers have diminished across the North Gulf Coast this morning as a mature complex low in the Gulf exits southward. Low stratus and fog over Cook Inlet has moved over Anchorage early this morning. Along the coastal locations, the northerly outflow pattern continues out of the usual gap areas across Southcentral. Farther west, conditions have improved from blizzard criteria across the Southwest mainland, Aleutians, and Pribilofs overnight. However, strong winds and lingering snowfall continue early this morning. Brief upper level ridging is set up behind this system across the central Bering and Aleutians, with the next storm force front just west of Shemya ready to enter the western Bering.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern over the Bering Sea over the next few day. By Friday, models start to diverge with the development of a triple point low near Kodiak Island. There is still some uncertainty in the track and strength of the low position and whether this will bring snowfall or downsloping to Southcentral by the end of the week.

AVIATION.

PANC . Freezing fog over Cook Inlet has drifted into the terminal this morning. Conditions should improve by this afternoon with light northerly winds and VFR conditions expected.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Thursday Night) .

The weather begins to turn a bit more active by the tail end of the forecast period Thursday night into Friday. Until then, gap winds, freezing spray in many of the marine areas, and freezing fog around Cook Inlet will be the primary hazards.

Freezing fog has developed around the Anchorage area, down Turnagain Arm, and along the western foothills of the Kenai Mountains this morning. The dissipation of at least some of the high cloud cover that started out the night last night is likely at least part of the cause of the fog, along with lingering moisture. With the strengthening March sun, the fog should dissipate, or at least lift by around midday today in most areas. However, the fog is likely to redevelop again tonight with very little change in the large scale weather pattern expected between now and tonight.

With the renewed shot of colder air, freezing spray (with localized areas of heavy freezing spray) will be an issue both today as the winds increase through the gaps through Thursday morning, and then again after the next front moves through on Friday through Friday night. The freezing spray concern will be felt even around Kodiak Island. For most of the rest of Southcentral, it should simply mean continued below normal temperatures through the forecast period.

The gap winds will keep conditions windy through Resurrection Bay and Seward, the Whittier area, Thompson Pass, and the Copper River Delta through Thursday morning. Gusts to 60 mph are possible through Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta, with gusts to 40 mph possible for Whittier and the Seward area.

The next bout of snow is expected from Thursday night through Saturday morning for portions of the area. Since this moisture will be largely devoid of warm air, as it will be a cold air mass replacing a warmer, but still below freezing air mass, most areas, even along the coast should see at least mostly snow. The snow will begin around midnight Thursday night as a front eventually succumbs to a low developing along it. The low center will track just south of Kodiak Island by Friday morning, but Gulf moisture with temperatures right around freezing could make for several inches of accumulation across Kodiak Island. The snow will quickly spread north along the coastal mountains Friday morning, but Anchorage, the Valley, and the western Kenai will start off largely downsloped, with little in the way of any precipitation expected. That could change come Friday evening into Friday night with the approach of an upper level wave and the Gulf low moving away effectively ending the downsloping. While we are generally looking at a 1 to 4 inch snowfall event as of now, that remains a highly uncertain forecast. Stay tuned for updates.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2).

The radars at Bethel (PABC) and King Salmon (PAKC) have been active overnight and early this morning. Northerly and northwesterly winds have been strong enough to causing drifting and blowing snow. The tight pressure gradient over southwest Alaska will continue into the afternoon, then it will slacken and there will be a lull. Thursday morning the winds will shift as a new front moves into the eastern Bering. Another batch of snow is forecast for Southwest Alaska on Thursday. The potential exception will be the Alaska Peninsula which could see a rain snow mix.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2).

In the wake of the recent frontal passage, northerly flow has set up over the eastern Bering. Meanwhile, a new front is pushing into the western Bering complete with a "baroclinic leaf" on satellite imagery. Early this morning, the ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) data detected gale force winds with the enhanced northerly flow over the eastern Bering and the new front impacting the western Aleutians. There is a a weak transient ridge over the Central Aleutians. However, the pattern is so progressive the new front will be over the eastern Aleutians and moving into the western Alaskan mainland Thursday afternoon. Expect more unsettled weather for the Bering and the Aleutians the next 48 hrs.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday).

Bering Sea: A low and trailing front approaching the Alaska Peninsula from the west will bring widespread westerly gales with an area of storm force winds and 30 feet seas moving with the low, or north of the Eastern Aleutians on Fri morning. Winds decrease to gales over the Eastern Bering by Sat with seas decreasing to 20 feet. Another strong front moves north across the Western Bering/Aleutians late Fri into Sat. High end westerly gale force to possibly storm force winds and seas building to 25 feet over the Western Bering are expected for Sat. Some model uncertainty persists, but overall confidence is good. A low approaches the Central Aleutians from the North Pacific early Sun with southerly gales spreading into the central Bering with seas remaining in the mid-20s through Sun. Up to storm force winds are again possible for parts of the central Bering with this next system on Sun, but confidence for these higher winds is lower by this point in the forecast.

Gulf of Alaska: A low and front trailing to the south of Kodiak Island move into the western Gulf Fri with northwesterly gales moving in over the western bering just behind low and front. Waves build to 10 to 15 feet in the western Gulf on Fri and up to 20 feet in the southern Gulf by early Sat. Confidence for this portion of the forecast is good, but uncertainty for the low track increases as it drifts towards the central/northern Gulf on Sat. There is better confidence for a region of at least northwesterly gales to continue southwest of the low near the southeastern Gulf, but the region of highest winds will depend on the uncertain low track. By Sun, confidence increases for the low to exit into the North Pacific with northerly winds decreasing to small crafts or lower and seas subsiding to 10 feet by Sun evening.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday) .

The models are in surprisingly good agreement at the start of this forecast period, with only moderate agreement through the weekend. The active pattern is expected to continue.

Models keep a strong Arctic/Siberian upper level low rotating around northeast Russia with an attendant trough stretching southeastward across western Alaska and the eastern Aleutians at the start of the period. A shortwave moving along the trough extending from the aforementioned upper low will help force a lower level circulation which may develop over the Alaskan Peninsula and track into the northern Gulf. While details are very much uncertain with this and even farther out, there could be another trough moving across the Aleutians and Bering at the end of the forecast period.

Overall, expect milder temperatures for this time period with readings still slightly below normal but closer to the normal values of where they typically are this time of the year which is near 32 degrees F for Anchorage. This pattern could potentially mean a snowier regime for Southcentral and in particular across the Anchorage Bowl. However, many factors have to come together for Anchorage to get the snow, though, the storm track looks favorable with model guidance mostly bringing lows near and into Prince William Sound with details of each uncertain.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 181. MARINE . Storm Warning 177 178 185 411 Gale Warning 130 131 138 150 155 165 171-76 179 180 181 412-14 Heavy Freezing Spray 121 130 160 165 179 180 185 411 412 414 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ALH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PJS MARINE/LONG TERM . AS/NR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Sand Point, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sand Point, AK19 mi47 minNNW 21 G 309.00 miLight Snow and Breezy20°F13°F74%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Albatross Anchorage, Balboa Bay, Alaska
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Albatross Anchorage
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:31 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:55 AM AKST     8.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:26 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:20 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:27 AM AKST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:23 PM AKST     6.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:22 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:25 PM AKST     1.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.72.44.46.47.98.47.86.44.52.50.8-0.1-012.54.35.86.66.65.84.63.21.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Beaver Bay, Alaska
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Beaver Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:31 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:00 AM AKST     7.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:27 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:21 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:26 AM AKST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:28 PM AKST     6.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:23 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:24 PM AKST     1.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.72.24.26.17.587.56.24.42.40.8-0.1-0.10.92.445.56.36.35.64.53.11.91.2

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