Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sand Point, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 230033 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 433 pm akdt Thu aug 22 2019 Analysis and upper levels An occluding surface low over the southern gulf is moving slowly eastward, as it is north of the upper jet. Its associated front however, is being carried rapidly eastward under a strong westerly jet. This has caused the showers rain along the northern portion of the front to stall over the north gulf as the flow aloft becomes more east northeasterly. Rain over kodiak island becomes more sporadic this afternoon as the whole complex heads eastward. Smoke continues to be fairly widespread across the eastern kenai peninsula with the swan lake fire and also over the mid susitna valley with fires in the area. Lower clouds over the northern susitna valley are burning off from the south. An upper trough and associated surface front are heading south across the delta and kuskokwim valley. Mostly clouds have been observed along this band with little in the way of precipitation. The best area will likely be along the upslope portions of the alaska range. Broad north to northeast flow continues over the bering sea. A weakening low south of the western aleutians continued clouds and a little light rain along the western and central aleutians. Model discussion The models are in decent agreement through Saturday in regards to the synoptic features. Significant differences occur Saturday night and Sunday with the timing of a upper low moving over the gulf. This translates into fairly significant positioning and timing issues with the associated surface reflection over the gulf. Aviation Panc... Southeast winds across the airport complex will diminish late tonight. Smoke from the forest fires will likely bring MVFR conditions to the airport Friday morning. There will likely be some improvement during the afternoon hours as winds become westerly. Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3) The low southeast of kodiak will continue to push east across the gulf of alaska tonight. A triple point low has developed with this system and this storm will dive southeastward. The lion's share of the rain will remain over the gulf of alaska with the possibility of wraparound moisture from cordova to portions of the prince william sound. The radar at middleton island (paih) has been very active today and expect more activity tonight and tomorrow over the water. Anchorage will be shadowed by the mountains for this event. A stray shower may make it over the kenai mountains to the western kenai, but most areas will remain dry. An upper level trough continues to drop down from the arctic and will move south of both the brooks and the alaska ranges. Cold air over warm air is inherently unstable and showers are expected to develop. The antecedent airmass has been pretty dry, so some areas may just get virga but other areas may actually receive measurable precipitation at the surface. Upper level flow will become northerly this forecast period. Fire weather (southcentral) Susitna valley... Light southerly winds are generally expected through this afternoon and evening shifting light northerly Friday morning. Northerly flow will increase and become gusty from talkeetna north and over the western susitna valley late Friday and into Saturday with the passage of an upper trough. Winds in these areas will slacken again Saturday afternoon. Upper wind support and temp advection are lacking, so would not expected to see a repeat of last weekends wind event. Precipitation will be lacking, but upper trough on Friday and Saturday will bring a few showers with low probabilities of wetting rains. There is an outside chance of a thunderstorm or two along the talkeetna mountains Friday afternoon, but stability

indices and lack of moisture would keep probabilities low. 700 mb steering flow is fairly light, so if something does develop along the mountains they would not move much. Kenai peninsula... easterly bl winds this evening will shift to the west after midnight and becoming northwesterly Friday. Although winds will remain light over the swan lake fire area, gusty outflow winds are expected over the southern and eastern kenai peninsula. Upper troughs dropping down from the north Friday and Saturday will likely favor showers over the kenai mountains east of the fire area with little chance of wetting rains to the fire area. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2) Showers along the mountains over the alaska peninsula, associated with a weak shortwave, will diminish through this evening. The remainder of interior southwest alaska will will remain dry through tomorrow afternoon when a trough drops down over the region. This will lead to a slight chance of thunderstorms for Friday afternoon in the kuskokwim valley and the bristol bay region. The instability has moved to the south a little faster compared to yesterday's forecast. Heading into the weekend, the southwest mainland can expect to cool down a few degrees and see drier conditions. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2) As the stacked low continues to move into the gulf, winds along the akpen will start to weaken overnight. Northerly flow will be the dominant feature across the bering sea starting Friday through the weekend, with increased winds through the channeled terrain along the eastern aleutians and bering. Small craft advisory winds are forecasted out of bays and passes extending from dutch harbor to sand point starting Friday night through Saturday night. Marine (days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday) Westerly flow will persist across the gulf through the long term period. There is increasing confidence that a low will develop south of the alaska peninsula Sunday and track eastward into the gulf of alaska Monday with small craft winds likely. A second, potentially stronger low forms in the north pacific and tracks northward into the gulf late Tuesday. Currently, there is low confidence in the track and strength of this second low. Meanwhile in the bering, a ridge of high pressure remains in place through Tuesday ahead of an incoming low entering the western bering by Wednesday. .Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)... the general long-term pattern consists of an upper level longwave trough draped over the state with an upper level ridge building over the bering. An unsettled weather pattern is expected for the southern mainland with cloudy skies and showery conditions in store for early next week. A new feature of note is a north pacific low that approaches the gulf of alaska as early as Tuesday, though model solutions disagree on the position and track of this low through the end of the week. One main steering factor for the low's track will be a ridge building over the alcan border Thursday. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... Dense smoke advisory: 121. Flood advisory: 121 125. Marine... Gale warning: 351 352. Fire weather... None. Synopsis and model discussion... Rc southcentral alaska... Pjs southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Alh marine long term... Ko

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK	18 mi	55 min	Calm G 1.9	51°F	56°F		1007.6 hPa
KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK	97 mi	49 min	NNE 6 G 8	56°F	55°F		1007.5 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Sand Point, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sand Point, AK	19 mi	3.9 hrs	NNE 3	10.00 mi	Fair	56°F	51°F	84%	1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Albatross Anchorage, Balboa Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Beaver Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon

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