Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sand Point, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 091635 CCA AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 735 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A strong area of low pressure centered south of the Alaska Peninsula is slowly drifting northward into the eastern Bering. The associated storm force front is lifting northward over the southern Mainland, bringing heavy rain and gusty southeasterly winds to the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile over Southwest, this same low is producing gusty northeasterly winds and rain across the Alaska Peninsula while farther north along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, temperatures are cold enough for snow. Snowfall combined with gusty winds has significantly reduced visibility across that area this morning.

Farther west, weak cyclonic circulation is in place over the central Bering while another low centered south of Shemya with a central pressure near 980 mb continues to move eastward, tracking along the south side of the Chain.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Overall model solutions are in great agreement for the short-term and the track of the low center as it lifts northward along the southwest coast of Alaska through Tuesday. Differences arise by Tuesday night as another North Pacific low tracks northward toward the southern Mainland. Model solutions continue to differ on the exact track and location of this low center by midweek. Overall, forecast confidence is average.

AVIATION. PANC . Wind shear will continue to be the main threat as another front lifts inland this morning. Winds will be out of the north at the terminal while strong southeasterly flow will persist aloft through the morning. Expect gusty southeasterly flow to arrive at the terminal by Monday evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A strong weather front will move through the area today. This will bring very strong winds to Turnagain Arm and the higher elevations around Anchorage. This system is also loaded with moisture and is quite warm. Heavy precipitation is expected along and near the Gulf coast. Very little precipitation is expected for inland areas due to strong downsloping easterly winds aloft. The front will move inland late this afternoon into the evening. The winds along Turnagain arm will then diminish. The downsloping component will also weaken, and some precipitation should work its way inland. The winds over the Anchorage area will then become southerly and increase. This will push temperatures into the 40s. The front will dissipate on Tuesday with precipitation and winds diminishing considerably. Another front will move into the Gulf late Tuesday, then move north to near the Gulf coast late Tuesday night. This next system will not be as strong as today's (Monday) storm, with winds and precipitation generally staying over the Gulf to just along the Gulf coast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Temperatures will continue to rise above freezing this morning as a North Pacific low keeps on its path northward through the afternoon. Many areas in Bristol Bay have already warmed up with this warm front, causing snow to transition to rain. Areas along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast will continue to see potential blowing snow out ahead of the front this morning, with gusty conditions up to 45 mph. However, conditions will improve late this morning into the afternoon as temperatures continue to rise. Strong winds will continue across Southwest Alaska through Tuesday morning when the low center moves into the northern Bering. By Tuesday afternoon, showers begin to taper off across the region before the next possible system brings precipitation to the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay for Wednesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A powerful 950 mb low centered near Port Heiden this morning will move northward between the Pribilofs and Southwest Alaska by this afternoon. Strong winds will persist over the eastern Bering and in Bristol Bay through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, northerly gales this afternoon will continue across the Pribilofs and central Bering. The winds quickly switch over to westerly flow overnight for the central and western Bering and Aleutians as the low center tracks into the northern Bering for Tuesday morning. Rain and snow showers are likely to continue through Tuesday for much of the Bering and Aleutians.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .

A pair of low pressure systems will affect the region. The first low moves from the northern Bering toward the Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday as it retrogrades (moves west), with sustained gales likely north of 60N and west of 175W. Farther east, a north Pacific low moving toward the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will also bring sustained gales to Bristol Bay and coastal waters of the AKPEN. The winds will then subside for both locations on Thursday and Friday. Seas look to generally remain at or below 15 feet through the period.

. Gulf of Alaska .

A front will move from south to north across the region on Wednesday, with sustained gales preceding it. Given a long fetch length, seas are expected to build into the 20 to 25 foot range ahead of this feature. The winds will subside for Thursday and Friday, but the waves will take more time. We expect seas to remain near 20 feet for the southern and eastern Gulf on Thursday before decreasing on Friday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models continue to struggle with the specifics of the long term forecast, but some general signals can still be gleaned in the noise. Synoptically, a progressive pattern will persist over the Bering and Alaska. A vertically stacked low in the northern Bering Sea Wednesday will continue steering modified Arctic air over the Aleutians and Bering. The low will continue to gradually weaken and shift toward Siberia, but in the meantime expect scattered showers over much of the Bering/Aleutians through Thursday. Meanwhile, a low that is currently roughly 400 miles southwest of Shemya will quickly traverse the North Pacific over the next few days. As this low tracks northeast of 50N 150W it will push a warm occluded front towards the North Gulf Coast, likely in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. This should trigger a healthy round of precipitation along the North Gulf Coast and Alaska/Aleutian Range. South/southeast facing slopes should get the heaviest precipitation, while areas in the lee (e.g., Anchorage Bowl, western Kenai Peninsula, Bristol Bay) will be more of a challenge with shadowing. While it's early to get into specifics with respect to precipitation type, this looks like a fairly warm system . the mountains should get snow but in lower lying areas precipitation type will be a challenge. Friday into the weekend, models indicate a strong low or series of lows traversing the Aleutians, bringing a round of strong southerly winds and precipitation.

In short, temperatures will largely be near or above average with a southerly component to the flow over southern Alaska for much of the Wednesday through Sunday timeframe. In addition, precipitation will mostly be focused along the North Gulf Coast.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NPW 101, 125. WSW 155. MARINE . Storms 119, 120, 130-132, 136-141, 351, 352. Gales 125, 128, 129, 150, 160, 165, 177, 178-181, 185, 411, 412, 414.

FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . PD/MM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK	18 mi	86 min	SW 23 G 27	40°F	45°F		968.9 hPa
KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK	97 mi	86 min	SE 11 G 18	38°F	45°F		968.7 hPa

Wind History for Sand Point, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sand Point, AK	19 mi	2.2 hrs	SSW 16 G 25	10.00 mi	Light Rain	40°F	33°F	77%	968.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Albatross Anchorage, Balboa Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Beaver Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon

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