Monday, March1, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hyder, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:13PM Monday March 1, 2021 2:27 PM PST (22:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 411 Am Akst Mon Mar 1 2021
.small craft advisory this evening through late tonight...
Today..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. NEar ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. Snow with rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow in the evening, then rain showers and snow showers late.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
Tue night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers with snow showers.
Wed..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..NW wind 15 kt becoming s. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hyder, AK
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location: 55.77, -130.18     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 011550 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 650 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

SHORT TERM. A vicious weather pattern full of imposing decisions continues to stand before us. Temperatures in the mid 30s across most of the region, but with small, though not minute, dewpoint depressions threaten to make mountains of snow out of what should be slushy conditions at worst. MOS guidance is also flummoxed with disconnects between guidance fields related to temperature and predicted snow amounts not adding up. In unison they call for highs on this Monday in the high to mid 30s for much of the region, but pushing 8 inches-plus of snow in 24 hours in Yakutat, and even 4 to 6 inches in Juneau.

We decided to act in Yakutat's case as hourly MOS numbers came in somewhat lower than actual highs/lows, and the expectation of easterly winds ahead of the approaching front perhaps offering some chance of a cool air wedge forming to promote some efficient overrunning. Confidence is low as sounding values have come in with a warm layer below 1K feet. But again saturation increases from frontal precipitation should aid snow-melt cooling and will likely closes the gap later this morning, offering a real chance of significant accumulations.

Farther, east, rain and snow is expected to increase. This morning, precipitation should be more showery. As the front approaches from the west, steadier precipitation takes over. Sitka reported various periods with dustings of snow overnight, but then a rain changeover cleans it up. Given relatively cool 850 mb temperatures between -6 and -7.5 C, we expect no real skill level at indicating time trends of when more rain should fall than more snow or the opposite, so we have largely gone mixed in the forecast well into the next 36 hours. These temperatures should guarantee snow with rain, if not all snow at times, despite above freezing temperatures. As rates increase late this afternoon and the evening, some light snow accumulations will likely occur in spots even as temperatures are marginally above freezing. Should temperatures be off by even a couple of degrees, real snowfall amounts could differ markedly from forecasted amounts. Thus, our forecasted snow amounts will be even more error-prone than normal during the short-term forecast period (through Tuesday night).

As a gale force front approaches the Panhandle this afternoon, ridging across the Panhandle strengthens and thus we do expect strong winds developing through Upper Lynn Canal. In Skagway they already have. With temperatures in the mid 20s and up to 7 inches of accumulation through the next 24 hours at White Pass, we expect blowing snow and drifting to become impactful. Thus, we have posted a winter weather advisory through 6 AM Tuesday for White Pass. We end it here, because actual snowfall lessens on Tuesday. But winds could still support blowing snow well into Tuesday.

By Tuesday, winds ease through the Inner Channels and colder air associated with a long-wave trough across the gulf enhances instability even further. Some of this colder air sneaks into the northeast gulf Monday night and adds the threat of thunderstorms from Yakutat to Pelican. While instability grows on Tuesday, we suspect the thunderstorm threat to be lower as winds aloft will not add to instability of the sharp lapse rates of 8 C/km plus. Given these deeply sharp lapse rates though, the threat of rain and snow should continue across the Panhandle, and not just the north. Some areas could see light accumulations even far to the south, but most will see little at all, given a marine moderated air mass.

Trends through this afternoon in measured precipitation and temperature should give stronger clues if more significant snowfall accumulations are in any of our futures. Confidence in the winter storm in Yakutat is low to moderate, lower than we typically want for a warning. Confidence in the rain/snow and light accumulations is moderate and for the winter weather advisory and strong winds for the South Klondike Highway are moderate to higher.

LONG TERM. /Wednesday through Monday night/ . "Variety's the very spice of life, that gives it all its flavor," according to William Cowper's "The Task" (1785), and the long term looks to deliver plenty of variety as the progressive pattern continues with more than a few dashes of uncertainty to keep the forecasters on their toes. As has been the case recently, there will be some rain, snow, wind, waves, with a break possible at the very end of this timeframe. Of note, temperatures do not appear to warm or cool substantially during the long term. Temps will add their spice to the forecast by just hanging uncomfortably close enough to freezing to make snow a consideration in at least some portion of the forecast area.

Models are in good agreement Wednesday and Thursday with a digging upper level trough with the trough axis bisecting the Gulf of AK Wednesday night. At its maximum amplitude, the base of the trough extends all the way to 35N latitude in the central Pacific. At the surface models are also in decent agreement with a broad low in the gulf, and disturbances rotating around the system bringing periods of precipitation and wind to the panhandle. Precipitation type and the timing and strength of the impulses will be the forecast challenges. There appears to be one rather weak impulse that will impact the coast Wednesday afternoon bringing showers and possible small craft advisory winds for some of the channels. Deterministic and ensemble models are showing a stronger surface low approaching the panhandle from the southeast and riding up the coast throughout the day on Friday, but there are differences in both timing and track. Model trends will need to be watched on this system as it could bring more impactful winds, possibly gales, and precipitation, including snow, depending on the exact track. After the Friday system passes, yet another weak system is modeled to form in the gulf Saturday and approach the southern panhandle, this time from the west, and exits quickly to the southeast. Sunday and Monday look be the best chance for a break from the active weather, but with model disagreement present as early as Friday, confidence is low for the extended period.

To conclude on the subject of variety, an array of models were used to construct the long term forecast. For the first two days, a blend of the GFS, Canadian, European, and NAM were used due to the very good agreement. For Friday and Saturday, the European appeared to have the best handle on the Friday system so a blend favoring the European model was used. Beyond that the operational blends were leveraged (WPC, NBM).

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening for AKZ019. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ018. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ012-043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041-042-053.



JWA/BFL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 82 mi58 min SE 11 G 15 40°F 44°F1012.8 hPa

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAMM

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Tide / Current Tables for Davis River entrance, Alaska
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Davis River entrance
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Mon -- 01:53 AM AKST     18.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:30 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:56 AM AKST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:03 PM AKST     18.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:16 PM AKST     -1.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:50 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.217.518.416.913.38.63.90.7-0.414.4913.616.918.317.2149.34.30.3-1.6-12.16.7

Tide / Current Tables for Fords Cove, B.C.
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Fords Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:52 AM AKST     18.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:30 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:54 AM AKST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:02 PM AKST     17.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:14 PM AKST     -1.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.41417.11816.5138.33.80.7-0.31.14.5913.416.617.916.813.694.10.3-1.5-0.82.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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