Saturday, April10, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Perryville, AK

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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 9:11PM Saturday April 10, 2021 11:32 AM AKDT (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 6:07PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perryville, AK
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location: 55.85, -159.1     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 101306 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 506 AM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper level longwave trough remains anchored over the Bering with a shortwave ridge over Southcentral. Underneath the trough a complex low with multiple centers exists over the western Bering. The primary front is well displaced from the low center and exists over Southwest Alaska extending from Hooper Bay to King Salmon. Blizzard conditions have been observed over the Kuskokwim Delta Coast this morning with snow and blowing snow over Bristol Bay. These conditions are expected to lift around sunrise.

Over Southcentral winds have by and large diminished across the region with Valdez being the last to hold on to the cold drainage winds. The polar shortwave that brought the cold air south can be seen on infrared satellite over the Yukon Territory. Cold temperatures remain in place underneath the shortwave ridge with Anchorage International breaking another record low temperature this morning at 6F. Temperatures in the Copper River Basin remain well below average as well with Paxson measuring -29F and -17F in Glennallen. Things should begin to warm today as upper level clouds stream in from the west and southerly flow begins to set in.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in good agreement in the short term but begin to diverge on Monday. One minor difference in the short term is that flow aloft is more zonal than models were depicting yesterday. As a result, southwest flow over the Cook Inlet that may have lead to an inch or two of snow has been decreased due to a stronger westerly component and downsloping (drying) off of the Western Alaska Range. On Monday, the primary model differences are in the east/west location of the moisture field as it reaches the north Gulf Coast. Minor Differences in the flow will lead to substantial differences in snow totals from Whittier to Cordova. As such, forecast confidence for these areas decreases on Monday.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR ceilings and visibility will persist through the forecast period. There is a chance for a brief period of light snow this afternoon, but the atmosphere may remain to dry for accumulation at the surface. Ceilings will likely hover around 5000 ft at this time before raising in the evening. Sunday morning a front will move over the area, allowing for low level wind shear and the typical downslope hole over the terminal.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Monday night) .

Amplifying upper level flow will result in an active weather pattern for Southcentral and the Gulf over the next few days. Some of the highlights include warming temperatures, chinook "downslope" winds, and heavy precipitation along the coast. First off, lingering strong winds in eastern Prince William Sound (including Valdez) will finally die down during the morning hours as a short-wave ridge moves overhead and pressure gradients rapidly slacken. A short-wave trough over Southwest Alaska will weaken as it crosses Southcentral today. With such a dry airmass in place (Total Precipitable Water of 0.08" on the 12Z Anchorage sounding) it's going to be difficult to saturate the low levels and get snow all the way to the ground. Have backed off the snow forecast, which was already unimpressive. Expect most areas to remain dry, with the best likelihood of light snow/dusting along the west side of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains.

Attention will shift to a much more impressive upper trough and surface front approaching the western Gulf/Kodiak Island late tonight. A series of short-waves will dig southward across the North Pacific today/tonight causing rapidly building heights across the Gulf and Southcentral. This will lead to development of a strong southerly jet and atmospheric river, which is fairly rare for this time of year. The front will progress eastward across the western Gulf Sunday through Sunday night, then stall over the central Gulf along the west side of the upper level ridge. Expect widespread wind and moderate to heavy precipitation from Kodiak Island to Prince William Sound. Strong low level southeasterly flow will particularly favor the eastern Kenai Peninsula/western Prince William Sound for heavy precipitation, while producing downslope drying for most of the western Kenai Peninsula as well as for Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Although the airmass will certainly warm from its current state, expect the bulk of precipitation to fall in the form of snow. Gusty winds will cause surface temperatures to rise above freezing at sea level by Sunday afternoon, with locations along the immediate coast likely transitioning to a mix of rain/snow or even all rain. Snow levels will remain low though, with coastal mountains getting a dump of heavy snow to go along with the strong winds.

In addition to the strong low level flow, also expect gap winds to develop on Sunday, most notably through Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley, and along the Copper River. Expect temperatures to jump where the wind is blowing, likely into the lower 40s. Wind sheltered areas will remain cooler. Winds along Turnagain Arm could approach High Wind Warning levels (75mph). However, at this point it looks like pressure gradients favor the Turnagain wind bending southward down Cook Inlet which should keep winds below warning level along the Anchorage Hillside. In any case, this will be the strongest Turnagain winds in quite some time.

Forecast confidence drops Monday through Monday night due to uncertainty in the position of the surface front as well as timing of the next trough and surface low moving up from the Pacific. However, based on the highly amplified pattern, expect strong winds and heavy precipitation to remain a threat, particularly along the coastal zone. This is also a warm pattern, so expect temperatures to return to normal (or perhaps even above normal) for this time of year.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Today through Monday).

Blizzard conditions are presently occurring across the Kuskokwim Delta coast and areas near Cape Newenham. Visibilities will slightly improve as winds slowly diminish this morning over these areas, however light snow and blowing snow will continue much of today. A weak upper ridge will inhibit any precipitation farther inland. A second front will approach the Southwest coast this evening. Precipitation types are somewhat challenging, however brief initial snow over the Kuskokwim Delta will give way to a mix or rain overnight (for lower elevations) into Sunday in a deep southerly flow. Easterly winds will develop near King Salmon late this evening into early Sunday morning. This may lead to surface temperatures briefly falling to at or below freezing while 950 mb temperatures remain just above freezing. As such, periods of light freezing rain are possible for this area, though impacts will be minimal. Widespread rain/snow showers will continue through Sunday as a broad low weakens in the eastern Bering. Warmer temperatures will continue into Monday, with rain showers becoming more scattered as the low becomes vertically stacked and further weakens.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Today through Monday).

A front will track across the Aleutians through Sunday morning bringing moderate rain and gusty southeasterly winds to the Chain and Pribilofs. A broad low will gradually weaken in the Bering through Monday. As it moves farther north, the northerly flow behind it will change precipitation from west to east from a mix to all snow showers.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians

A broad area of low pressure will remain centered over the northern Bering Sea on Monday. Winds are expected to remain below gale force with no high seas expected. Forecast confidence rapidly decreases on Tuesday as guidance shows significant differences in solutions with respect to a second potential low pressure system moving eastward across the southern Bering Sea Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall, forecast confidence is moderate to high for Monday and very low for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Gulf of Alaska

A front over the northern Gulf of Alaska will result in gale force southeasterly winds across the coastal waters of the north central Gulf of Alaska. These gale force southeasterly winds will also extend into Prince William Sound before easing Monday night. A low pressure system is expected to approach the Gulf on Tuesday. A front associated with this low will bring another round of easterly gale force winds throughout the coastal waters. Confidence in the intensity of these winds is low to moderate due to different solutions in the placement and intensity of the low center. Though, there is a moderate degree of consistency these easterly winds will funnel along the coast and will be gale force. Confidence increases on Wednesday as these winds will gradually weaken. No high seas are expected during this period.

Long Term Forecast (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday).

The pattern will be amplified as an upper level low moves over the Bering Sea on Tuesday while upper level ridging extends across the eastern Alaskan mainland near the AlCan border. This low will then move southeastward into the North Pacific on Friday. There is good ensemble agreement that onshore flow and higher precipitable water values are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a front associated with this low moves across the northern Gulf of Alaska into Southcentral Alaska. This will allow for an increased chance of rain along the coast and snow in more inland locations such as Turnagain Pass Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Due to the prevailing flow being southeasterly, it is likely the Anchorage Bowl will have cloudy skies, though little or no precipitation due to downsloping off the Chugach Mountains. The precipitation associated with this front will taper off across Southcentral Alaska Wednesday afternoon and evening. Teleconnections support broad upper level ridging across the Bering Sea and Alaska mainland Thursday afternoon onward. Due to the dynamics of the aforementioned upper level low, there is good ensemble agreement of a Rex Block forming over the Alaska mainland and Bering Sea being under the upper level ridge Thursday and Friday. The significance of the Rex Block is the upper ridge will become more pronounced and is likely to persist for a longer period of time. This upper level ridge will allow for a moderation of the cold airmass and allow for more sunshine than clouds across the Alaska mainland.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Blizzard Warning 155 Winter Weather Advisory 161. MARINE . Gale Warning 119 120 125 127-132 136-139 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 175 177-180 185 351 352 413 414. Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126-130 140 185 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CJ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 82 mi45 min S 5.1 G 8 42°F 39°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Moller, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chignik, Chignik Airport, AK50 mi36 minWSW 310.00 miFair38°F33°F83%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAJC

Wind History from AJC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Chiachi Island (east side), Alaska
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Chiachi Island (east side)
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Sat -- 02:29 AM AKDT     7.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:00 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:42 AM AKDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:35 PM AKDT     7.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:52 PM AKDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:33 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.86.37.27.26.453.41.91.10.91.634.76.27.17.16.55.13.41.70.70.30.92.3

Tide / Current Tables for Kupreanof Harbor, Paul Island, Alaska
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Kupreanof Harbor
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Sat -- 02:26 AM AKDT     7.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:01 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:40 AM AKDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:32 PM AKDT     7.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:50 PM AKDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:34 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.96.47.27.16.34.93.31.910.91.63.14.86.27.17.16.453.31.70.60.412.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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