Page Links Change Location One Page Printer Page HELP AIS Default setup SAVE setting RECALL saved setting

Marine Weather and Tides Perryville, AK Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

---

Sunrise 10:05AM

Sunset 3:43PM

Sunday December 15, 2019 6:05 AM AKST (15:05 UTC)

Moonrise 8:10PM

Moonset 12:06PM

Illumination 85%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

---

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perryville, AK

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for -

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXAK68 PAFC 151354 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 454 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A large, mature low pressure system can be seen on satellite moving slowly northwest in the western Gulf of ALaska. Its occluded front is pushing north through Kodiak and towards the southcentral coast. This low is a closed low both aloft at 500MB and at the surface. High pressure still hangs on inland north of the low. The pressure gradient between the two is creating some gusty winds in the Susitna Valley south to the Kenai Peninsula.

Out in the Bering, a weak low spins over the eastern Aleutians, causing low clouds and rain there. There is a shortwave ridge currently over the central Aleutians, providing a brief break in the weather there. This ridge is sandwiched between the low to the east and the next big system that is just approaching the western Aleutians this morning. This low is another large and occluded low moving through the north Pacific. A triple point low can be seen via satellite beginning to form as it moves into our forecast area.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue to be in good agreement. Some disagreement exists with the low center position and movement of the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska. However, the disagreement is not enough to make much of difference in the forecast. Therefore, we are confident in the forecast through the next few days.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Southerly winds just above the airfield should diminish enough early this morning to eliminate low level wind shear.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A strong low south of Kodiak Island will merge with the low near Dutch Harbor this afternoon bringing the new low center over the Alaska Peninsula. The front associated with the Kodiak low is what will have the greatest impact on Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf region today through tonight.

There is a bit of warm air associated with this front which will keep precipitation all rain at lower elevations along the gulf coast. However, the low center pulling back to the southwest will keep this warmer air from penetrating too far inland. This will also allow cooler air from inland to change precipitation to snow over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. One of the bigger challenges for this forecast package was to determine the elevation at which the precipitation should go from rain to snow and if that will be low enough to bring the snow to the Sterling Highway in Turnagain Pass. At this time it looks like it should be mostly rain into this evening with any snow melting on contact with the ground. However, precipitation may quickly turn to snow overnight through Turnagain Pass.

By Monday, the merged low over the Alaska Peninsula from this afternoon will have weakened as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska. The front will also be much weaker, though it will remain along the north gulf coast. It looks unlikely for any significant precipitation to make it across the coastal mountains into inland areas over the next two days.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Active weather continues over Southwest Alaska today as a front associated with a complex low moves in from the southeast. Gusty southeasterly winds and rain are expected across the Alaska Peninsula today. Farther north over the Kuskokwim Delta, temperatures will be cold enough for snow. Current thinking is that as the front passes through later this afternoon, trace amounts of snowfall are possible for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. As the low drifts south Sunday night into Monday, winds will weaken and precipitation will taper off. Some scattered showers of mixed precipitation are possible Monday night into Tuesday over the interior areas of Bristol Bay, otherwise general offshore flow is expected to persist through Tuesday ahead of another front that moves in from the west by Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A 970 mb low is still centered just north of Unalaska Island. It is starting to drift southward, and will eventually phase with a second low (located south of Kodiak Island and moving northward) late this morning. The biggest forecast update made overnight was to keep the boundary of strong westerly winds just west of Dutch Harbor. It has been a challenge to pinpoint exactly where the low center will track as models have struggled to resolve this.

This newly phased low will then move over the AKPEN and eventually into the Gulf, but not before generating some gusty northerly flow over the central and eastern Aleutians this afternoon. Temperatures will generally be warm enough for rain, though a brief change to snow cannot be ruled out over the central Aleutians later today as colder air gets pulled in from the north. The next storm in the Bering arrives over the western Aleutians this afternoon, spreading in another round of southerly gales over the central Aleutians Mon night into Tue morning. As the low center tracks eastward, reaching the central Aleutians by Tue morning, colder northerly flow on the backside will bring stronger gusts to the western Aleutians for Tuesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). The storm track during this period will be from the Aleutian Islands eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. High end small craft advisories to gale warnings are expected as this low pressure system moves through. Additionally, expect light to heavy freezing spray from Hooper Bay to Nunivak Island.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). The global models are in decent agreement with the longwave pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Friday December 20th. At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows, one near Kodiak and a Kamchatka low. There is a ridge axis between the two systems. There are some minor differences with the timing of two different surface lows but the forecast intensity is only a few millibars off and the forecast track is very similar. Overall, the run to run continuity with these two lows has been decent. Expect these systems to move from west to east with the first storm tracking into the Gulf of Alaska and later towards SE AK. All the while, the second storm will head into the Bering with the frontal boundary pushing across the Aleutian chain. Again, for the Anchorage metro area the chances of snow in this forecast period range from zero to slight chance.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . STORM: 119 120 130 131 GALE: 125 132 136-139 141 155 160 165 170 172-178 351 352 411 413 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BJB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . PJS

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK	82 mi	54 min	N 13 G 17	42°F	44°F		980.1 hPa

Wind History for Port Moller, AK

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

Last 24hr

1 day ago

2 days ago

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Chignik, Chignik Airport, AK	50 mi	69 min	E 8	7.00 mi	Rain	40°F	36°F	86%	979.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAJC

Wind History from AJC (wind in knots)

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

Last 24hr

--

S9 G31

--

SE8 G14

6 G21

SE10

S10 G19

--

SW10 G18

--

--

6

--

--

5 G16

E7 G15

NE6

NE7 G14

--

N7 G17

--

N5

E8

N6 G14

1 day ago

--

SW14 G24

SW22

SW12 G19

SW9

SW7

SW6

SW7

--

SW4

Calm

--

E6

6

6

S12 G20

SE10 G16

E9 G17

E8 G16

--

--

E16 G30

E19 G31

E16 G28

2 days ago

SW12 G17

--

6 G21

6

W8 G21

--

W11 G15

W8 G16

6 G16

W12 G16

W13 G21

W13 G28

--

SW8

--

W12 G19

--

SW18 G23

W17 G23

W15 G29

W14 G22

W14 G23

SW16 G23

W13 G25

---

Tide / Current Tables for Chiachi Island (east side), Alaska

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Tide / Current Tables for Kupreanof Harbor, Paul Island, Alaska

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.