Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Perryville, AK

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 6:38PM Friday March 5, 2021 4:17 PM AKST (01:17 UTC) Moonrise 2:27AMMoonset 9:58AM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perryville, AK
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location: 55.85, -159.1     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 051446 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 546 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A front moving eastward from Southwest to Southcentral Alaska continues to be the main weather maker across the region this morning. This system brought blizzard conditions and advisory level snowfall to the Southwest mainland yesterday afternoon, with conditions improving through the morning hours today as the front weakens. Quiet conditions across Southcentral are coming to an end this morning as the aforementioned front approaches. A triple point low has developed near Kodiak Island overnight with a long fetch of moisture being pulled in from about 45N visible on infrared imagery. Farther west, strong winds and snowfall brought reduced visibility to the Pribilofs as a quick moving system moved over the Bering, which are slowly improving this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are still doing well in the short term with synoptic features. However, models are still having trouble with the small scale features as the front weakens and moves over Southcentral today. The biggest uncertainty is the chance for snowfall across the Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula into Saturday morning.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Chances for snowfall return tonight, but should not significantly worsen conditions.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Saturday Night) .

A front and associated low have moved into Southcentral this morning. The forecast remains largely unchanged for Kodiak Island. Snow has begun across all of Kodiak and Afognak Islands, and will persist through at least midday for most areas, though the falling snow may end by late morning across the southern portions of the island. Temperatures are right around freezing, and the snow and cloud cover should hold them right around there through the end of significant precipitation around midday. Strong northwesterly winds behind the front will usher in a renewed colder air mass, which will result in widespread freezing spray across the marine areas around Kodiak Island tonight through Saturday morning. These winds may pick up some of the snow from this morning and blow it around, resulting in localized reductions in visibility, especially around Akhiok. See the Winter Weather Advisory for more details.

Agreement in the guidance farther north regarding snow for the mainland has improved significantly overnight, likely due to the development of the initial band, which is evident over the Sterling and Soldotna area as of this writing, which extends north into the Susitna Valley. Therefore, confidence in a widespread 2 to 5 inches of accumulation across the Western Kenai Peninsula has also greatly increased. The uncertainty continues to reside with any localized atmospheric disturbances that may impact the band, which are notoriously difficult to forecast. As a result, the confidence on which areas are closer to 5 inches of accumulation remains fairly low. However, from Homer through Cooper Landing, at least 2 inches of accumulation by Saturday morning for most areas is expected. See the Special Weather Statement for more details.

Elsewhere across Southcentral, there remains some uncertainty with the band's impact across the Susitna Valley. In general, with a slow westward drift expected with the band, most of the Parks Highway should see only a light accumulation. The heavier snow will set up west of the Parks.

Confidence is also much higher for the forecast for Anchorage and the Valley. Essentially, the area now looks to escape much, if not all snow with this band, as it all stays west of the area. Therefore, chances of snow and accumulations have been reduced significantly. With some shower activity developing on the eastern side of the band, a stray flurry or snow shower cannot be ruled out today. When the cold air moves in late Friday night through Saturday morning, the northwesterly flow may allow for some upslope to produce up to an inch of snow along the Hillside, but that is also fairly uncertain.

Skies will clear for most areas Saturday night. The gap winds will be going with near gale force winds expected through Seward and Whittier, and gale force gusts likely through Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta. Elsewhere, expect another cold night Saturday night.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2).

An occluded front extends from Yukon Delta through AKPEN this morning, where steady light snow continued to fall east of Nushagak Hills, including Sleetmute and Iliamna. Cold air advection will remain over the region, with the next wave of much colder air advection moving across Nunivak Island and Kuskokwim Bay tonight into Saturday. A warm front moving in from the western Bering will drive warmer temperatures around Kuskokwim Bay and Kuskokwim Delta by Saturday morning. However, strong winds aloft combined with CAA will produce snow accumulation up to 3 inches for Kuskokwim Delta on Saturday.

Unsettled but generally benign weather will continue across Southwest Alaska as brisk onshore flow continues over the next couple days. This will bring snow showers at times, though no significant snow is expected. We are also monitoring the potential for coastal flooding along coastal Bristol Bay and the northern AKPEN on Friday afternoon as strong westerly winds and large long period westerly swell move into Bristol Bay. As of now the chance only looks to be marginal at best, though we will continue to monitor and keep you well advised.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2).

Strong gales embedded within the westerly flow trailing a surface trough east of Pribilof Islands will continue to impact both Saint Paul and Saint George this morning until winds diminish in the afternoon. For this reason, the Winter Weather Advisory for Pribilof Islands was extended until 10 AM AKST this morning to reflect this situation. Overnight observations from Saint Paul indicated a maximum sustained wind of 43 knots with high gusts up to 56 knots. Steady moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow conditions continued into early this morning, and these conditions will persist for the next several hours until mid- morning today.

Gales with higher gusts will move across the Bering and around the Aleutians coast for the next day or two. The presence of heavy freezing spray along the Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait today and around Saint Matthew waters today and Saturday should be closely monitored.

The next frontal system from a low east of Kamchatka will elevate swells and winds as the front moves east and across the Bering Sea and the Aleutians through the weekend. The P-type will be rain/snow mix through Saturday morning, followed by pockets of rain from the North Pacific in response to a warm front upstream Saturday afternoon. Overall, the forecast period will remain a bit active in the next couple days.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Bering Sea: A Northern Bering low tracks into Northwest Alaska through Tue. Forecast confidence is good. Widespread small craft winds and waves with some areas of gale force winds move into the Northern Bering Sun, diminishing Tue. Seas to 19 feet over the Central Bering and Pacific side of the Aleutians subsides by Tue. A new low and front moves across the Central Aleutians and Bering through Tue. Seas 14 feet Tue.

Gulf of Alaska: A low exits the Gulf late Sun. Forecast confidence is good. Widespread small craft winds and waves diminish over the Gulf late Sun. Wave heights 12 feet subsiding. A new low and front enter the Western Gulf Mon, moving to the Central Gulf Tue. Widespread small craft winds spread across the Gulf with the front. Areas of gale force winds with the low center over the Barren Islands, Southern parts of Shelikof Strait and around Sitkinak Tue. Waves building to 14 feet for late Mon into Tue.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday).

An Arctic/Siberian upper level low that has been in place across eastern Russia for quite some time now will continue to remain in place through the forecast period. However, the one difference is that this upper level low will finally begin moving northward over the Arctic Ocean by the Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe. An upper level ridge in place across much of the Alaska Mainland early on in the forecast period will move off to the east and be replaced with another blast of cold air. Although, this time the air mass doesn't look to be as cold as the current one we are in but still cold nonetheless. Overall, expect below normal temperatures for the forecast period with Tuesday being the closest to near normal temperatures before dropping back down yet again. Precipitation-wise, a storm system is currently anticipated to track from the Bering across Southwest Alaska and then through Southcentral Monday through Tuesday time period with snow chances. Another storm system is possible behind this one towards the end of the forecast period bringing the potential for more unsettled weather.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 152 171 195. MARINE . Gales 130-32 150 155 160 165 170-81 185. Heavy Freezing Spray 180 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ALH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CMB MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/MV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 82 mi47 min WNW 18 G 23 30°F 38°F1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Port Moller, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chignik, Chignik Airport, AK50 mi20 minWSW 18 G 3310.00 miFair and Breezy32°F15°F50%1005.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAJC

Wind History from AJC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Chiachi Island (east side), Alaska
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Chiachi Island (east side)
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Fri -- 12:05 AM AKST     2.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:27 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM AKST     8.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:16 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:57 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:25 PM AKST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:20 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:31 PM AKST     5.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.73.64.96.37.487.97.15.74.12.51.30.60.71.32.33.54.5554.84.54.1

Tide / Current Tables for Kupreanof Harbor, Paul Island, Alaska
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Kupreanof Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:03 AM AKST     2.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:28 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:15 AM AKST     8.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:23 PM AKST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:21 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:28 PM AKST     5.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.73.656.37.58.17.975.74.12.51.20.60.71.42.43.54.5554.84.54

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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