Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Perryville, AK

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 10:31PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 5:42 AM AKDT (13:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 5:43AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perryville, AK
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location: 55.85, -159.1     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 041320 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 520 AM AKDT Tue Aug 4 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad surface low is spinning up well south of Kodiak Island this morning. Its associated front is oriented west to east and is slowly lifting north from the southern Gulf. Both features are well-defined on infrared and water vapor imagery and the placement of the front is further defined by the most recent ASCAT scatterometer pass, indicating southwesterly winds of 15 kts over the southern Gulf and easterly winds up to 20 kts over the northern Gulf, ahead of the front. The combination of the easterly flow with a shortwave stretching from Kodiak Island to Yakutat is bringing rain and gusty northeasterly surface winds to the eastern half of the island this morning as well as showers to the immediate Southcentral coast. Farther north, an upper-level ridge over the interior of the state is elongating and sliding southwest in response to the vertically stacked low to the south moving slowly to the north and east. Between these two features, there is cyclonic flow along with weak pulses of energy in the mid-levels. One is moving near Bristol Bay with shower activity from this system persisting from Kipnuk to Port Heiden this morning. The second is near the Al-Can border with most of the cloud cover and shower activity from this feature staying north of the Alaska Range.

Farther west, the main weather feature is a deepening surface low west of Attu. This feature is producing widespread rain and gusty southeasterly winds along its associated warm front draped over the western Aleutians. The surface low is getting plenty of upper-level support as it sits in the left exit region of a 120 kt jet streak at 30,000 ft (300 mb). This system is also aided by a vigorous short wave at 500 mb diving southeast from the Russian coast.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in good agreement through the short term, although there are some minor, yet persistent, differences between models and model runs. One difference remains the evolution of the surface low developing southeast of Kodiak Island. The American Models (NAM/GFS) continue to keep the feature slightly stronger, but the 00z runs of the EC and GEM have trended to the NAM and GFS. The differences become greater by Wednesday afternoon as the low weakens and moves to the eastern Gulf. The NAM and GEM keep this feature stronger and more compact than the EC and GFS, which open this feature into a wave. By Thursday, the NAM is the only one to keep a closed low south of Sitka. In the upper-levels, this translates to the NAM holding onto a stronger and more elongated feature along the AK Panhandle coast. Given this, the NAM is also bringing stronger easterly waves around this feature into the Copper River Basin and across a larger area of Southcentral. Overall, the other models are weaker with the waves and have trended weaker. Thus, the NAM is seen as the outlier.

Out west, models are in very good agreement with the strength and track of the surface low from west of Attu this morning to the west coast by Thursday. Guidance, however, appears to be downplaying the strength of the winds wrapping underneath it as a secondary upper-level shortwave dives south of the main feature in conjunction with cold air advection. Deterministic runs of the global models keep winds just shy of gales. Boundary layer winds and hi-res models, though, suggest an area of gale-force winds southwest of the center of circulation developing by Wednesday morning over the central Aleutians and progressing east to the AKPEN by Thursday. Given a trend in stronger winds with the most recent GFS and NAM (00z) runs, and gales in the hi-res models, gale force winds have been introduced over the aforementioned areas in the morning forecast package.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Thursday) .

A weakening low over the Southern Gulf of Alaska is bringing rainy conditions to Kodiak Island today. An associated elongated trough and surface front will lift northward across the Gulf today. This will bring some showers to the Gulf coast, but the bulk of rain will remain over the Gulf. As the low continues to the eastern Gulf this afternoon and evening, rain and winds will diminish across the western Gulf and Kodiak Island. The rest of Southcentral will remain under weak cyclonic flow aloft. With some sunshine expected today this will lead to some afternoon and evening showers, particularly along the mountains. As the low in the Gulf continues eastward tonight, weak upper waves rotating around the north side of the low will cross the eastern Copper River Basin and rotate southwestward to eastern Prince William Sound. While none of these waves appears particularly strong, this will result in numerous showers through this corridor tonight through Wednesday.

A weak upper ridge will move overhead of Southcentral on Wednesday. A thermal trough will strengthen beneath it, leading to isolated thunderstorms across inland areas. The overall warmer and drier conditions today and tomorrow will be short-lived as a strong vertically stacked low tracks to the eastern Bering Sea Wednesday night, pushing a front into the western Gulf. An east- west oriented ridge will build along the north Gulf coast ahead of this front, increasing the Turnagain Arm winds and bringing gusty winds to the Anchorage and Matanuska Valley Areas on Wednesday night. The upper trough over the eastern Bering will then dig eastward across the Gulf Thursday, causing the front to re-orient east-west across the central Gulf. This in turn will lower pressure over Cook Inlet and cause the Turnagain Arm jet to bend southward. Winds will ramp up Thursday along Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside, but these winds will remain out of the Anchorage Bowl. The front will stall over the northern Gulf as a surface low forms in response to the upper low arriving from the Bering Sea Thursday night. Thus, the strongest winds with this system (not counting gap winds) will be over the Gulf waters.

Expect moderate to heavy rain with the arrival of the front in Kodiak Wednesday night. This rain will then spread to the southern to eastern Kenai Peninsula on Thursday. Based on the aforementioned change in orientation of the front, precipitation over eastern Prince William Sound will much lighter. For the rest of Southcentral, strong low level southeasterly and easterly flow will lead to downslope drying, so most areas will remain dry or will see only a brief period of light rain.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3). (Today through Thursday)

An active pattern will evolve over the next few days, bringing multiple rounds of potential convection, with rainfall becoming more widespread Wednesday into the first half of Thursday, before a more showery type pattern takes hold. As for convection, look for the potential to develop during the afternoon and evening the next three days, with the best chance being east of a Sleetmute to King Salmon line (minus the Lake Iliamna area due to a lake- induced stable layer near the lake). Here, similar to yesterday, models project LI's (lifted indices) of -2 to -3 with 1000-500 MUCAPES (another instability parameter, most unstable convective available potential energy) of 400 to 900 J/kg today and Wednesday. However, relatively meager low and mid level lapse rates may help mitigate this.

Another area or two that may see a few storms develop would be the Kilbuck Mountains, and the Alaska Peninsula. However, instability is weaker here, but still sufficient that it can't be ruled out. This convective potential is more uncertain for Thursday, as how much airmass recovery (aided by breaks in cloud cover) can occur.

The other item of interest will be a front reaching the coast Wednesday evening, pushing inland on Thursday while weakening as frontolysis (the weakening of a front) ensues as it enters an occlusion phase (essentially where the cold front catches up to and merges with the warm front). Widespread rainfall will accompany this feature, some of which may be of moderate intensity with decent rain rates, due to a semi-tropical connection.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3). (Today through Thursday)

This morning's water vapor imagery shows tropical moisture being pulled up into the western Aleutians, aided by a low to the southeast of Japan. This has led to fairly decent cloud top cooling in the infra-red satellite imagery (indicative of decent rain rates), with Shemya having bounced around between 3/4 of a mile and 3 miles visibility. This moisture feed aided by warming just above the surface, will interact with additional shortwave energy diving into the base of a developing trough, helping to allow the storm to maintain its current strength being in the mid 980 mb range as it treks eastward, reaching Bristol Bay by early Thursday morning.

As it does so, a strong front will sweep eastward while accompanied by a steady rainfall. The system will also begin to become vertically stacked in the Wednesday through Thursday. Strong dry advection behind the front and respectable cold air advection aloft will tighten the pressure gradient enough to allow sustained gales to develop during this time, mainly along and south of the east central Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). Here, given a long dynamic fetch, waves building into the 15 to 20 feet range are a distinct possibility.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5:Thursday through Saturday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians

A low over the eastern Bering on Thu will move onshore over the AK mainland Fri. Forecast confidence has increased that there should be Gale force gusts from the Pribilofs south towards the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN through Fri morning. These winds will be amplified in the terrain gaps. By Fri afternoon forecast confidence is moderate that a low will enter the western Bering, with the primary warm front reaching the central Aleutians on Sat. Winds should be lighter with some small craft advisory winds possible over the central Aleutians.

Gulf of Alaska

A front will move east across the Gulf of Alaska through Fri night with a triple point low forming to the east of Kodiak Island Fri morning. Confidence is moderate on Fri in regards to a barrier jet setting up along the Northern Gulf Coast north of the low. This would bring small craft easterly winds to the coastline. Otherwise, forecast confidence is good that small craft westerly winds should persist to the south of Kodiak through Fri night. By Sat the low should move onshore, which will help keep winds light and westerly across the Gulf.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7:Friday through Monday).

A broad longwave trough extending from far eastern Siberia to Southeast Alaska should continue the cool and wet pattern. The main, or strongest, upper level low should be over Southwest Alaska on Friday with a front extending into the Gulf of Alaska. This system should push east through Sunday, bringing rain and cooler temperatures to the Alaska mainland. Model uncertainty increases on after Sunday, with the GFS solution indicating strong ridging in the wake of the aforementioned system while the ECMWF/Canadian models have a more zonal jetstream. The GFS solution would bring a return to summer-like weather of warm temperatures and sunny skies from the Akpen to Southcentral, while the other solutions would likely keep things cooler and continue the fall-like pattern. Regardless, guidance is in good agreement on Mon as the next system arrives in the Western Bering. The exact weather impacts of this system are still uncertain but long term guidance does indicate a long, deep moisture fetch coming into the region from the Central Pacific early next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 176. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . TM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SEB/KM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PD MARINE/LONG TERM . CJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 82 mi55 min Calm G 2.9 53°F 53°F1007.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Moller, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chignik, Chignik Airport, AK50 mi46 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F51°F87%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAJC

Wind History from AJC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----Calm--N4--SE4E6NE5--N7------Calm--CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Chiachi Island (east side), Alaska
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Chiachi Island (east side)
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Tue -- 03:08 AM AKDT     8.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:43 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:07 AM AKDT     -1.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:23 PM AKDT     6.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM AKDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:37 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.16.77.98.58.1752.70.5-1.1-1.7-1.30.12.14.25.86.66.55.94.83.62.72.32.8

Tide / Current Tables for Kupreanof Harbor, Paul Island, Alaska
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Kupreanof Harbor
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Tue -- 03:05 AM AKDT     8.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:44 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:05 AM AKDT     -1.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:20 PM AKDT     6.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:56 PM AKDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:37 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.26.788.58.16.94.92.60.4-1.1-1.7-1.20.22.24.35.86.66.55.84.73.52.62.32.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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