Saturday, May30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Naukati Bay, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:00AMSunset 9:50PM Saturday May 30, 2020 5:34 PM AKDT (01:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:55PMMoonset 2:33AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 252 Pm Akdt Sat May 30 2020
Tonight..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Sun night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
Mon..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naukati Bay, AK
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location: 55.92, -133.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 302251 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 251 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

SHORT TERM. With a decaying low situated over the central gulf and moist southeast flow directed across Southeast Alaska, our region has endured mostly cloudy skies with a few showers passing along the coast and the Coast Mountains. With much warmer air along with much the same upper level dynamics to our east, moist and unstable air has sparked a few thunderstorms this Saturday afternoon. But none look to cross the international border.

Successive disturbances rotating around the main low center, at first tonight, then a stronger one associated with a front on Sunday, in turn progressively yield more expansive shower activity across our region. All told, precipitation amounts should be light and amount to no more than a tenth to one-half inch Monday. High temperatures should also fall a bit Sunday as they settle back into the 50s region-wide. While south winds do increase a bit tonight through Sunday through the Inner Channels, we hold off on small craft advisories until a much stronger system arrives to welcome June.

The responsible gulf low opens into a trough by late Sunday and clears the northern Panhandle by Monday morning. Mean flow becomes much more southerly at this point at both mid and low levels. Therefore, we expect showers to become more widespread, especially across the north where orographics are maximized.

A new gale force system arrives with North Pacific jet support on its heels for Tuesday. This system carries with it warmer air and more subtropical moisture that re-stabilizes the atmosphere Tuesday. Therefore, we expect precipitation to quickly become steadier rains. From midnight Monday morning to midnight Tuesday morning we expect rainfall amounts of around a half to one inch, and there could be some periods of moderate rainfall over the south. While flooding is not expected, area rivers, creeks, and lakes should respond with rises from Sunday into Monday. With greater rain rates come lower high temperatures. In fact, highs will barely hit the lower 50s in most locations, and we have even held temperatures back into the high 40s on Prince of Wales Island where some of the heaviest amounts will fall. Winds will also present concerns. They rise quickly across the gulf Monday morning to 35 to 40 kt gales by Monday afternoon. We lowered wind speeds through the Inner Channels ahead of presumed more stable and stratified winds. But we do fully expect 25 to 30 kt winds to develop through the southern Inner Channels. Baranof and Prince of Wales Islands, the southern Inner Channels, and quite possibly the Upper Lynn Canal region could experience gusty conditions along with a chilly rain.

Forecast confidence is generally high, as there has been consistent synoptic guidance with these systems for several days. New guidance provided some subtle shifts in the forecast.

LONG TERM. /Tuesday through Saturday/ With onshore flow firmly entrenched, precip will begin to become more organized and robust over the panhandle through Tuesday as a trough associated with the low moves through the region. This should result in some wetting rain, however highest totals currently look to be in the south around Hydaburg and Ketchikan, with heaviest rain seeming likely Tuesday morning. These projections are based on the current forecast and will very much be scrutinized several more times for future forecast packages as the event draws closer. After the trough passes through, onshore flow will remain in place for most of the week which will continue to promote cloudy skies and chances for precip across the panhandle. Near the end of the week, some model guidance is hinting at a break from the rainy conditions, particularly further north with the low breaking up. However, don't go planning a picnic yet as at that far out, enough discrepancy between the models exists that confidence is very low.

Forecaster's preference of models was a blend of the ECMWF/GFS for the Mon-Tue event. Afterwards, changes were minimal and were based mainly on WPC guidance. Forecast confidence in that a decent rain and coastal wind event is likely for the Mon-Tue time frame is increasing. Beyond that point, forecast certainty drops off precipitously.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . None.



JWA/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 39 mi73 min SSE 4.1 G 6 52°F 1010.6 hPa45°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 39 mi85 min W 9.9 G 13 59°F 1008.7 hPa48°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 70 mi53 min S 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 49°F1010.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK30 mi2.7 hrsSSW 610.00 miOvercast54°F45°F72%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKW

Wind History from AKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4--Calm--W3W3----S6--SW10
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2 days agoE33--Calm----Calm5Calm--S3--SE5Calm3--SE5SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Cyrus Cove, Sea Otter Sound, Davidson Inlet, Alaska
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Cyrus Cove
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:13 AM AKDT     3.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:33 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:47 AM AKDT     8.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:34 PM AKDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM AKDT     9.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.63.84.86.27.68.68.98.375.23.21.60.60.51.43.15.27.38.99.79.58.56.9

Tide / Current Tables for Tuxekan Passage (north end), Davidson Inlet, Alaska
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Tuxekan Passage (north end)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:21 AM AKDT     3.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:32 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:51 AM AKDT     8.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:54 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:42 PM AKDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:23 PM AKDT     9.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.53.74.55.97.38.38.78.26.95.23.31.60.60.41.22.84.978.69.59.48.46.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.