Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coffman Cove, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 031459 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 659 AM AKDT Mon Aug 3 2020

SHORT TERM. /Monday through Tuesday/ The short term remains active with showers continuing today with more steady rain expected for Tuesday as a front moves through. Slight ridging builds over the region through the afternoon ahead of the next weather system moving into the western gulf. The surface ridge axis will be right over the Panhandle keeping moist onshore flow and showers present. By tonight, an area of low pressure in the western gulf moves eastward while swinging a front into the Panhandle late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. As the front approaches, the surface ridge will sharpen increasing southeasterly winds throughout the Inner Channels to 15 to 20 kt. As the front pushes through, expect an area of SCA winds to spread northward overnight through the central gulf and coastal waters. After the frontal passage, the gradient takes on a more easterly component and continues to sharpen with SCA conditions developing in the Southern Inner Channels overnight while winds in Lynn Canal subside due to a more parallel gradient.

The gradient remains tight on Tuesday as a wave rotates around the low in the gulf. This will keep winds over the Inner Channels at 15 to 25 kt through Tuesday night. The strongest winds are expected in the southern Inner Channels and E to W oriented water ways. As the wave rotates northward, precipitation, already ongoing, will increase in intensity especially across the Southern Panhandle and Coast Mountains. A plume of moisture will be drawn northward by an approaching jet streak Tuesday evening with IVT values around 500 pushing into the southern Panhandle. Rain could be locally heavy at times.

Overall forecast confidence is above average as models are all in agreement with the current weather pattern. Used the NAM Nest and hi-res models to increase winds with the approaching front and waves through Tuesday.

LONG TERM. /Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/ Active weather pattern for SE Alaska continues through the long range forecast as series of lows/fronts track into the AK Gulf. For Wednesday the previous days low weakening to an open wave trough as it moves into the SE Gulf. Precipitation and winds will diminishing from north to south was the low exits the region by early Thursday. The northern areas may get bit more drying due to offshore flow as the low center moves towards Dixon Entrance. an dry period will be short lived as the next front, associated with a low pushing into the NE Gulf, crosses over the Eastern Gulf and over the Panhandle Thursday evening into Friday. Expecting approximately 1-1.5 inches of rainfall thru Friday. Strongest winds expected Friday due to the advancing front with gulf winds in the 20 to 30 kt range and inner channels of 10 to 20 kt. Generally cooler temperatures with highs in the low 60s to upper 50s and lows in the low 50s to upper 40s. Beyond the end of the week significant model spread on timing and position of the next feature develops.

Good confidence that SE AK will be in a wet pattern but low confidence in details, even at the start of the long range. Used a blend of GFS/ECMWF for Wednesday but still uncertainty the gulf low position. Getting better resolution for the next front however still used ensemble approach with WPC solution.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-041>043-051-052.



CM/PRB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	12 mi	61 min	SE 8 G 8.9	57°F			1014.2 hPa	57°F
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK	64 mi	49 min	E 4.1 G 6	57°F			1015.4 hPa	55°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	84 mi	53 min	ESE 2.9 G 4.1	58°F	59°F		1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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NW2 G5

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SE14 G21

SE15 G23

SE17 G22

SE15 G22

SE12 G17

SE13 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK	33 mi	2.3 hrs	SW 5	9.00 mi	Overcast	58°F	55°F	93%	1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKW

Wind History from AKW (wind in knots)

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S9 G16

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Tide / Current Tables for Lake Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Exchange Cove, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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