Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kake, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:46PM Friday August 14, 2020 11:41 PM AKDT (07:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:09AMMoonset 6:13PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 305 Pm Akdt Fri Aug 14 2020
Tonight..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Sun night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kake, AK
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location: 56.82, -133.78     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 142259 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 259 PM AKDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SHORT TERM. /Friday evening through Sunday/ A very wet weekend is in the forecast for Southeast Alaska as a low remains offshore in the gulf with multiple waves rotating around it. Guidance over the past 24 hours has had a poor handling on the current system as rain moved into the Panhandle up to 12 hours earlier than expected with much heavier rain than initially thought across the south. As of 2pm Friday afternoon, Ketchikan picked up 1.85" of rain since about midnight with rates of over 0.30" per hour at times.

Rain will continue over the Panhandle through Sunday, increasing in coverage and intensity as each wave passes by. South of the main system, an atmospheric river is pointed straight at Haida Gwaii with the northern edge affecting portions of the Southern Panhandle. Sufficient moisture transport, IVT values approaching 500 kg/m/s and PW values nearing max values for this time of year support a continued threat for heavy rain around the Ketchikan area and Misty Fjords through Sunday.

Timing of each wave will be a struggle as models have been poorly performing over the past week. Current thinking is that a first wave is expected to pass by from south to north Friday night through Saturday morning. Rainfall rates and coverage will increase across the south Friday night then spread northward through the overnight hours, reaching the Upper Lynn Canal area by early Saturday afternoon. The best dynamics for heavy rain will remain across the south, so not expecting the same heavy rates across the north.

Higher confidence in the heavy rainfall comes Saturday night when the atmospheric river directed at Haida Gwaii from the west pivots and becomes more N/S oriented. This stream of moisture will point right at the Southern Panhandle as a wave moves northward along the eastern gulf coast. The combination of southerly moisture transport, upper level jet support, enhancement of rain from the passing wave, and IVT values around 500 kg/m/s lead to higher confidence in a prolonged period of heavy rain Saturday through Sunday. QPF across the Ketchikan area and Misty fjords around 2 to 4 inches is expected with higher amounts likely in the higher terrain. Total QPF for the whole weekend ranges from 3 to 6 inches across the far south to 1 to 2 inches in the central Panhandle with lesser amounts in the far north. Confidence in the heavy rainfall amounts is a little lower due to large model spread for the short term.

With a low just offshore baranof island today, winds have been higher in east/west channels rather than north/south oriented water ways. Expect SCA conditions around Cross Sound to diminish this evening as the low rotates north and west. Expect winds to pick up to 15 to 20 kt in the central and northern Inner Channels this evening through tomorrow morning as the low passes by. Diminishing winds expected through the channels by tomorrow afternoon as the main low pulls away from the Coast. The one exception will be Clarence Strait as a tighter SE pressure gradient remains in place keeping winds 15 to 20 kt early this evening through Saturday evening.

Confidence that it will rain across the Panhandle is high through the weekend. However, overall confidence is only marginal due to models not being able to resolve small details which can have significant impacts on the weather. Used a blend of RFC/GFS for QPF since the GFS was advertising higher rainfall today compared to other guidance. For winds used a NAM/EC blend.

LONG TERM. /Sunday through next Thursday/ . Several small surface lows/troughs will continue to rotate about a larger upper level low over the central gulf through majority of the extended forecast. This will keep periods of rain in the forecast and fluctuating winds.

Models continue to have run-to-run consistency issues with each wave as they give different strengths to each, or favor others for more development. The changing low placement and passing pressure troughs leads to some uncertainty in the wind forecast. When the lows are further north, then winds through the inside waters will be primarily out of the SE with strongest winds through E-W oriented channels. When the low center is over the southern gulf, and ahead of some frontal troughs, winds through the northern inside waters will turn out of the north. How deep each low/trough ends up being will also determine how strong each burst of wind will be.

The parent low will become absorbed by another low moving in from the west on Tuesday. This low looks to take an eastward track that is further south, which could give some relief to the northern half of the area for the end of the week, but frontal bands will likely still be able to reach the southern areas.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043.



CM/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 32 mi42 min SSE 16 G 18 57°F 1007.1 hPa (+0.3)
PGXA2 46 mi29 min SE 17 G 23 53°F 53°F
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 60 mi80 min S 11 G 14 55°F 1008.3 hPa53°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 61 mi60 min Calm G 5.1 54°F 1007.6 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK14 mi46 minSE 1010.00 miLight Rain57°F55°F93%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE5E5E5E4E6--NE6NE3CalmS3SW3SW4W4W3W5SW3W3CalmCalmCalmE3E5--NE3
2 days agoNE3NE3CalmCalmE3NW3CalmCalmNW3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalm3SW3CalmCalmE4E5E5E5E4

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance Island, Alaska
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Entrance Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:21 AM AKDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:44 AM AKDT     10.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:16 PM AKDT     5.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:12 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:32 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:18 PM AKDT     13.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.29.26.74.22.11.11.32.64.87.19.110.410.7108.77.15.85.15.36.68.610.712.513.5

Tide / Current Tables for Hamilton Bay, Kupreanof Island, Alaska
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Hamilton Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:54 AM AKDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:25 AM AKDT     9.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM AKDT     5.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:13 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:33 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:59 PM AKDT     12.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.97.85.33.11.51.11.73.25.27.38.99.79.78.97.66.35.35.15.77.18.910.812.112.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.