Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kake, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 142259 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 259 PM AKDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SHORT TERM. /Friday evening through Sunday/ A very wet weekend is in the forecast for Southeast Alaska as a low remains offshore in the gulf with multiple waves rotating around it. Guidance over the past 24 hours has had a poor handling on the current system as rain moved into the Panhandle up to 12 hours earlier than expected with much heavier rain than initially thought across the south. As of 2pm Friday afternoon, Ketchikan picked up 1.85" of rain since about midnight with rates of over 0.30" per hour at times.

Rain will continue over the Panhandle through Sunday, increasing in coverage and intensity as each wave passes by. South of the main system, an atmospheric river is pointed straight at Haida Gwaii with the northern edge affecting portions of the Southern Panhandle. Sufficient moisture transport, IVT values approaching 500 kg/m/s and PW values nearing max values for this time of year support a continued threat for heavy rain around the Ketchikan area and Misty Fjords through Sunday.

Timing of each wave will be a struggle as models have been poorly performing over the past week. Current thinking is that a first wave is expected to pass by from south to north Friday night through Saturday morning. Rainfall rates and coverage will increase across the south Friday night then spread northward through the overnight hours, reaching the Upper Lynn Canal area by early Saturday afternoon. The best dynamics for heavy rain will remain across the south, so not expecting the same heavy rates across the north.

Higher confidence in the heavy rainfall comes Saturday night when the atmospheric river directed at Haida Gwaii from the west pivots and becomes more N/S oriented. This stream of moisture will point right at the Southern Panhandle as a wave moves northward along the eastern gulf coast. The combination of southerly moisture transport, upper level jet support, enhancement of rain from the passing wave, and IVT values around 500 kg/m/s lead to higher confidence in a prolonged period of heavy rain Saturday through Sunday. QPF across the Ketchikan area and Misty fjords around 2 to 4 inches is expected with higher amounts likely in the higher terrain. Total QPF for the whole weekend ranges from 3 to 6 inches across the far south to 1 to 2 inches in the central Panhandle with lesser amounts in the far north. Confidence in the heavy rainfall amounts is a little lower due to large model spread for the short term.

With a low just offshore baranof island today, winds have been higher in east/west channels rather than north/south oriented water ways. Expect SCA conditions around Cross Sound to diminish this evening as the low rotates north and west. Expect winds to pick up to 15 to 20 kt in the central and northern Inner Channels this evening through tomorrow morning as the low passes by. Diminishing winds expected through the channels by tomorrow afternoon as the main low pulls away from the Coast. The one exception will be Clarence Strait as a tighter SE pressure gradient remains in place keeping winds 15 to 20 kt early this evening through Saturday evening.

Confidence that it will rain across the Panhandle is high through the weekend. However, overall confidence is only marginal due to models not being able to resolve small details which can have significant impacts on the weather. Used a blend of RFC/GFS for QPF since the GFS was advertising higher rainfall today compared to other guidance. For winds used a NAM/EC blend.

LONG TERM. /Sunday through next Thursday/ . Several small surface lows/troughs will continue to rotate about a larger upper level low over the central gulf through majority of the extended forecast. This will keep periods of rain in the forecast and fluctuating winds.

Models continue to have run-to-run consistency issues with each wave as they give different strengths to each, or favor others for more development. The changing low placement and passing pressure troughs leads to some uncertainty in the wind forecast. When the lows are further north, then winds through the inside waters will be primarily out of the SE with strongest winds through E-W oriented channels. When the low center is over the southern gulf, and ahead of some frontal troughs, winds through the northern inside waters will turn out of the north. How deep each low/trough ends up being will also determine how strong each burst of wind will be.

The parent low will become absorbed by another low moving in from the west on Tuesday. This low looks to take an eastward track that is further south, which could give some relief to the northern half of the area for the end of the week, but frontal bands will likely still be able to reach the southern areas.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043.



CM/JDR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK	32 mi	42 min	SSE 16 G 18	57°F			1007.1 hPa (+0.3)
PGXA2	46 mi	29 min	SE 17 G 23	53°F				53°F
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK	60 mi	80 min	S 11 G 14	55°F			1008.3 hPa	53°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK	61 mi	60 min	Calm G 5.1	54°F			1007.6 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK	14 mi	46 min	SE 10	10.00 mi	Light Rain	57°F	55°F	93%	1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Hamilton Bay, Kupreanof Island, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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