Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
King Salmon, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 9:31PM Sunday August 25, 2019 9:09 AM AKDT (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:52PMMoonset 5:13PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King Salmon, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 58.67, -156.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxak68 pafc 251300
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
500 am akdt Sun aug 25 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level pattern consists of a flattening trough over the
northern half of the state, with relatively light wind flow over
the southern mainland. A slow-moving upper level low is over cold
bay. Ridging is building in over the western bering.

Mountain convection reformed around the copper river basin,
including the talkeetnas, chugach and the wrangells, with some
convection over southwest alaska as well. Thunderstorms formed
northeast of cordova over the mountains, with some isolated
strikes east of dillingham. Some leftover cloud cover persists
this evening as the tops of those showers moved on, but otherwise
essentially the whole of southern mainland alaska is rain-free
this morning. Low-to-mid level winds have turned southerly, which
is beginning to turn swan lake fire smoke towards the north. The
anchorage sounding remains similar to previous days, in that it
remains dry at all levels, and nearly entirely unstable, save for
a couple small inversions in the mid-levels.

Model discussion
Model agreement for the next two days remains very good. Forecast
challenges continue to revolve around wildfire smoke. For
anchorage and valley locations, the turnagain arm wind and broad
southeasterly flow are a major complicating factor in the smoke
density forecast. More smoke is expected to move north into the
susitna valley. There is some disagreement among the models by
Tuesday on the speed and track of the gulf low, but differences on
land and the sensible weather will be minimal regardless of the
track. Mountain convection coverage in southcentral the next
couple afternoons will also be a point of some uncertainty, there
is some potential the convection moves off the mountains towards
the northeast Sunday afternoon and towards the south on Monday,
though there should be considerably more convection Sunday.

Aviation
Panc... MVFR visibilities from swan lake fire smoke have moved
into the airport area. The smoke will likely persist for the rest
of the day and into tonight. However, the turnagain arm wind will
develop through the morning and impact the airport for the
afternoon into the overnight. The latest thinking is that while
the turnagain arm wind will contain some smoke from the fire, it's
likely it will dilute the smoke enough to keep visibilities
higher than they are now. Showers will develop over the chugach
mountains this afternoon, and there is a slight, but non-zero
chance they will impact the airport directly as well. On Monday
morning, the overall low-level winds will turn back to the
northerly to northwesterly direction. This should effectively
clear out any smoke around the area.

Fire weather
The weather will be generally warm and dry for the next several
days, other than some mountain shower activity this afternoon and
evening. There is only a slight chance any mountain convection
impacts the fires. Southeasterly gap winds are expected to
increase from this morning through the day, with gradual
diminishing of those winds into tonight. Those winds will also
impact the swan lake fire as well. The wind will flip around back
to the north to northwest by Monday afternoon.

For the southwest alaska fires, particularly the levelock fire,
the winds associated with the sea breeze this afternoon and
evening in addition to some weak upper level forcing may allow for
convective showers to form along the sea breeze front. Hopefully
that drops some much needed rain, but any showers in the area
could result in localized wind, temperature, and relative humidity
changes.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
A weak trough brushing past the area to the north will bring a
few more clouds to the area today as well as the potential for
scattered mountain showers this afternoon and evening. In the
lowlands, showers will more isolated and quite light. An upper
level low out by the alaska peninsula will track east, entering
the far southwestern gulf this afternoon and then pass just to the
south of kodiak island this evening where an associated surface
low will strengthen somewhat. The low will continue east into the
central gulf tonight through Monday while the surface front
associated with it rotates into northern and eastern gulf. The low
will move into the eastern gulf Monday night and into western
canada Tuesday. Upper level ridging over southwest alaska on
Monday will build east into southcentral alaska Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A shortwave trough and associated surface low south of sand point
will continue to produce scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms along the alaska peninsula through the early evening
hours as both features slide east into the western gulf. Weak
flow throughout the interior of southwest alaska will allow areas
of smoke and haze from the levelock fire to persist from the
interior bristol bay region northeast to lake iliamna through
Monday. Farther north, a second shortwave trough dropping south
along the western coast will produce an onshore flow, along with
increased cloud cover and the chance for scattered showers, across
the kuskokwim delta late Sunday through Monday. An upper-level
ridge then moves over the region late Monday only to be displaced
by another shortwave tracking across the southwest. This system
looks to bring another round of scattered showers across portions
of the kuskokwim delta and valley for Tuesday. Patchy fog remains
a possibility during the overnight hours, especially in river
valleys along the coast.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
A series of shortwaves moving south ahead of a ridge over the
central aleutians will continue will to produce clouds and
scattered showers across the eastern bering through late Monday
before the ridge slides east. Behind this ridge, a developing low
south of shemya will push a front north across the western
aleutians by Monday with widespread rain and southeasterly small-
craft winds. The front will lift over the western bering and
central aleutians on Tuesday as the parent low tracks north. A
second north pacific low south of shemya will then lift north,
enhancing rain and southerly winds across the central aleutians
and bering by Wednesday.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)
There is the possibility of a gale force low moving toward the
central aleutians Wednesday and Thursday. Currently, model
solutions still differ on this low, thus lower confidence in
gales moving into the central aleutians and central to eastern bering
sea Wednesday and Thursday.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)
The upper level pattern beginning Wednesday has a broad trough
across the bering sea with zonal flow across the top of the upper
level ridge. The trend into the weekend is for the trough to dig
south to the alaska peninsula while the upper ridge amplifies in
the eastern gulf of alaska into the mainland. There is significant
disagreement in the model solutions with regard to how far south
and east the trough digs and whether a strong upper closed low
will be south of the gulf of alaska or this remains an upper
trough. Current thinking is to maintain the upper trough solution
as opposed to a closed upper low moving into the gulf of alaska.

Bottom line is the ensemble or compromise solutions support cool
moist weather across southwest alaska while southcentral alaska
remains in the drier flow, although temperatures should be cooler
and cloud cover will be increasing. Confidence in the forecast
beyond Thursday is low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Dense smoke advisory: 121 125.

Flood advisory: 121 125.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jpw
southcentral alaska... Jr
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tm
marine long term... Sa


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK1 mi75 minS 70.25 miFog49°F48°F100%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3S3SW53W5W5------W6------Calm--S4S4--SE5S5--S6
1 day agoS5S5W8W6W10W7W10W11W11--SW10----S5--S4SE4SE5SE4S6S6SE5S4Calm
2 days agoN3CalmE5NE7E7E7E7NE10------SE5--Calm----SE8SE4SE5--S7S5S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Naknek Air Base, Naknek River, Alaska
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Naknek Air Base
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:11 AM AKDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:07 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM AKDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:32 AM AKDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:12 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:10 PM AKDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
2.32.32.221.71.51.210.80.60.51.62.121.81.61.310.70.50.20.100.5

Tide / Current Tables for Omakstalia Point, Naknek River, Alaska
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Omakstalia Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:07 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:57 AM AKDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:47 AM AKDT     5.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:12 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:59 PM AKDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
6.66.25.64.83.932.21.510.845.95.75.24.63.82.921.20.60.201.64.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.