Sunday, January24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
King Salmon, AK

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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:34AMSunset 4:48PM Sunday January 24, 2021 1:09 AM AKST (10:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:27PMMoonset 6:00AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King Salmon, AK
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location: 58.67, -156.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 240159 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 459 PM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A stalled out front along the north Gulf Coast and an associated low tracking along the front are the primary weather makers across Southcentral this morning. An associated band of snow and rain is nearly stationary over the western Kenai Peninsula this morning. With temperatures hovering at or above freezing across most of the region, only those localized areas where the snow is falling heavily enough to overcome melting are seeing any significant accumulations. Meanwhile for Anchorage and the Mat-Su, the flow of moisture is out of the southeast. Much of the snow and/or mixed precipitation across the Anchorage Bowl has been very light, but a dusting to less than a half inch of accumulation has been reported. Precipitation for most coastal locations and on over to Homer has been all rain. The 12Z Anchorage Sounding shows a large warm layer up to 3,500 ft above sea level. That has since completely eroded and wet-bulbed. This is evidenced both by the presence of snow down to sea level, which would easily have melted if that warm layer were intact, and also all of the upper Hillside stations this afternoon have cooled to right around the freezing mark.

Across Southwest Alaska, the precipitation is much more showery and less consistent. This is the result of somewhat cooler air over the area making the atmosphere that much more unstable. Finally across the Bering, cold northwesterly flow is across the eastern half of the basin, while the next low is moving into the Western Aleutians.

The upper levels feature a very wavy pattern. A small longwave negatively tilted trough helping support the precipitation across Southcentral is currently aligned along the coast of Southwest Alaska, extending across Kodiak Island. A skinny ridge is over the far eastern part of the state, with the next upper level low approaching the western Aleutians. A jet streak with an embedded ridge is south of the Aleutian Chain.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model agreement on the large-scale is very good through Monday afternoon across all of Southern Alaska, with the models in close agreement on the centers of the lows, but the wind fields and frontal locations in even better agreement. The primary points of uncertainty continue to be where the smaller mesoscale features will set up, especially tonight's snow across portions of the Cook Inlet region. Any difference in the models for Southwest Alaska and the Bering will make no significant difference as to the going forecast. Thus, forecast confidence is very good.

AVIATION. PANC . Light snow will persist across west Anchorage into the overnight hours. At times when the snow is heavier, ceilings and visibility may briefly come down to IFR, but most of the next 30 hours should feature MVFR conditions with any snowfall being very light to flurries. Winds should remain light and variable through Sunday afternoon.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Saturday Afternoon through Tuesday) .

The negatively tilted shortwave a frontal system is moving across the northern Gulf with the surface low just south of the western portions of Prince William Sound. The deformation zone continues to produce snow across the southern half of the Kenai Peninsula roughly from Kenai and Soldotna and southward. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to highlight this hazard. Light snow with a mixture of sleet is spilling over the Chugach into Anchorage and the MAT valley with only very light amounts. This trend will continue through this evening. As the low tracks east tonight the deformation band will weaken and possibly reorient around midnight from the Kenai Peninsula up towards Anchorage and the MATSU valleys but this should be short lived as the low tracks southeast overnight into the eastern Gulf. Most likely 1 to 3 inches of snowfall with locally higher amounts possible if heavier bands setup expected in these areas before sunrise, but not expecting 6 inches or greater. By mid to late morning into the afternoon hours a shortwave trough will approach from the north enhancing snowfall especially in upslope areas along hillside of Anchorage and Eagle River where 3 to 6 inches are likely, while on the west side of Anchorage and in MAT valley generally 1 to 3 inches total snowfall expected through Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday morning skies will clear with patchy fog possible for areas around Cook Inlet with light winds. Otherwise gusty outflow winds will ramp up from the Barren Island to Resurrection Bay and Passage Canal. Winds will also increase later on Sunday around Valdez and Thompson Pass. Monday the outflow winds will briefly decrease as a low pressure system moves across the southern Gulf. As this low moves south of the area, a ridge will develop to the west allowing for another shot of gusty outflow winds as colder air develops across the Copper River Basin. This will will help to enhance winds across Valdez, Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A showery pattern will continue this evening across Southwest Alaska. A low in the Gulf is allowing for precipitation to spill over into the Kuskokwim Valley, which will weaken through the overnight hours. Upper level waves are also keeping a few showers along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and southern Bristol Bay/Alaska Peninsula early this evening. Lingering moisture will allow for patchy fog to develop this evening through Sunday morning. Temperatures should remain cold enough to keep any new precipitation falling as snow, with little snowfall accumulation expected. An upper level ridge builds in overnight into Sunday morning, clearing things out across the Southwest mainland throughout the day on Sunday.

The next chance for precipitation arrives to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast late Sunday into early Monday associated with a low in the eastern Bering. This front will briefly scrape the coast before clearing out by Monday afternoon. Farther south, a North Pacific low will bring another round to the Alaska Peninsula, but is expected to keep a southern track and not spread into interior Bristol Bay. Overall, it should see a cooling trend and stay relatively dry across the Southwest to start out the week if the models remain on these tracks.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Gale force winds and showers across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula will weaken throughout the evening hours. Farther west, a low near Shemya this afternoon will continue to extend its front eastward, reaching the Pribilofs and eastern Aleutians by Sunday morning. Expect widespread precipitation and high end gale force winds, with embedded storm force gusts to to continue across the western Bering and Aleutians through Sunday.

By Monday morning, a compact North Pacific low will lift north towards the ALaska Peninsula, which will bring a brief period of storm force winds to the region. Another round of widespread rain will accompany this system as the warmer temperatures move in throughout the day on Monday, transitioning to snow overnight and into Tuesday as northwest flow allows colder temperatures to return.

A much more organized system will enter the western Bering and Aleutians by Tuesday morning. Expect widespread storm force winds, with the potential to see hurricane force winds on Tuesday with colder air wrapping around the low center.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Tuesday through Thursday.

Gulf of Alaska: Small model variance, but forecast confidence is good. Light northerly winds for the Gulf, except along the Alaska Peninsula where a trough brings northwesterly small craft winds and waves through the Barren Islands and near Sitkinak into the Western Gulf, diminishing Wed. Wave heights over the Gulf to 19 feet, subsiding Wed. A front enters the Western Gulf Wed and moves to the Central Gulf Thu. Southerly small craft winds with the front through Thu.

Aleutians/Bering: Small model variance, but forecast confidence is good. A strong North Pacific low and front moves over the Bering through Thu. Widespread storm force winds and waves with areas of hurricane force winds with the wind wrapped low. This system diminishes to widespread high end gale force winds with local areas of storm force winds spreading over the Bering and to the Alaska Peninsula for Thu. Wave heights to 44 feet on the Pacific side and 33 feet bering side spreading north and east subsiding Thu.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday) .

Model solutions remain consistent with 2 key features in the long term. On Wednesday, a deep low over the western Bering combined with a strong upper level ridge over the Gulf will create a very amplified pattern. Stormy conditions can be expected across much of the Bering and Aleutians Wednesday as the low tracks to the northeast. This low will ultimately suppress the ridge, pushing it southward, however it is not likely to entirely displace it. Effectively, this will create a more zonal pattern, allowing for active weather across Southcentral for the end of next week as the upper level jet transports remnant energy from the Bering eastward. At this time, models are suggesting the development of a stout triple point low in the vicinity of Kodiak Island next Thursday into Friday. By the weekend, this low will have moved into the eastern Gulf, and a MUCH colder airmass looks to arrive across much of the state by Saturday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 121. Special Weather Statement 101 125. MARINE . Storm Warning 155 178 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185 Gale Warning 150 165 170 172-177 185 120 130-132 138. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . JPW SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/KO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK1 mi75 minW 19 G 2310.00 miOvercast and Breezy27°F24°F89%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3S5S3S3CalmSE3CalmS4SW6SW6S7SW7W7W11W10W10W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Naknek Air Base, Naknek River, Alaska
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Naknek Air Base
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Sun -- 07:00 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:48 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:30 AM AKST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:35 PM AKST     2.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:29 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:18 PM AKST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.91.81.61.41.10.90.60.30.200.21.22.22.32.22.11.91.71.41.10.90.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Omakstalia Point, Naknek River, Alaska
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Omakstalia Point
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Sun -- 07:00 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:19 AM AKST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:49 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:50 PM AKST     6.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:30 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:07 PM AKST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:48 PM AKST     5.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.65.24.743.32.41.60.90.30.10.73.45.96.66.465.34.53.52.61.81.213.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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