Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
King Salmon, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:38AMSunset 4:44PM Thursday January 23, 2020 3:24 AM AKST (12:24 UTC) Moonrise 8:42AMMoonset 3:02PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King Salmon, AK
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location: 58.67, -156.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 230125 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 425 PM AKST Wed Jan 22 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A deep vertically stacked low is passing south of the western Aleutian islands, with an occluded front lifting northward toward the Aleutians. This is leading to widespread gales west of Adak. Light precipitation is also overspreading the area. Temperatures are cold enough to support snow initially, but warmer air will advect northward with the front.

A digging short-wave trough south of this low center is causing amplification of a downstream ridge. This ridge is building northward across the heart of the Bering Sea. Over the next couple days this high amplitude pattern will lead to a change in weather over the southern mainland, with cold air advection and resultant winds and heavy freezing spray (over marine areas).

Currently over the southern mainland, a broad and weak upper level short-wave trough is tracking eastward across Southwest Alaska producing a small area of light snow ahead of it. Otherwise, the region is cloud free in the mid to upper levels. With steep surface-based temperature inversions in place, this has led to formation of areas of fog, particularly in Bristol Bay where a few stations have been reporting dense fog (1/4 mile or less visibility) this morning.

Weak cyclonic flow out ahead of the trough is also producing a few snow showers from eastern Prince William Sound up into the Copper River Basin. A large area of low clouds extends from the Susitna Valley southward to the Mat Valley, Anchorage, Cook Inlet and the western Kenai Peninsula. With very weak low level flow don't expect these clouds to go anywhere quickly. Lastly, there are some localized gap winds along the Gulf coast due to tight pressure gradients between a low approaching southeast Alaska and high pressure northern to western Alaska.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good agreement with large scale features over the next few days and overall forecast confidence is above average. Some of the challenges will be in the details of temperatures, wind chills, and wind speeds as cold air advects across the southern mainland the next 24 to 36 hours.

AVIATION. PANC . MVFR ceilings, which are firmly entrenched across the Cook Inlet region, will hold until we get enough wind to erode the clouds. There could also be some period of flurries or light snow. If visibility is reduced, it should be of a short duration. Low level northerly winds will strengthen overnight tonight through the day Thursday, which will advect in drier air and erode the low level clouds. Best estimate to go VFR at the terminal is sometime Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Tonight through Thursday morning a few snow showers will linger across the Copper River Basin with flurries elsewhere as an upper level trough closes off a new low center over the western Gulf. This upper level trough also pulls a cold air mass across the southern mainland bringing colder trends through the end of the week. Gusty offshore flow increases tonight across channeled terrain and along the western Gulf, including Kodiak Island. Gusty winds are expected to persist for Seward, Portage Valley and Whittier over the next several days as the upper level low becomes stationary over the northern Gulf. Northerly flow will also increase for Broad Pass and Matanuska Valley as the pressure gradient becomes favorable Thursday afternoon. Wind across Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta slowly increases Thursday into Friday, with peak wind flow anticipated on Saturday. Winds for these locations are highly dependent on the location of the upper level low; so only minor adjustments were made as there is still some uncertainty on the low position.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday) .

Significant amplification of the long wave pattern over Alaska over the next 24 to 36 hours is expected to cause another Arctic outbreak of winter cold to move out of Siberia and into Southwest Alaska. This cold air outbreak is already about to reach the northern portions of the region, and will take hold across the rest of Southwest Alaska tonight. Due to lingering cloud cover, temperatures will only be marginally colder tonight than they were last night, and it will only really be felt in most areas on Thursday when skies gradually clear through the day. This will keep temperatures from rising much during the day Thursday. Thursday night is when the bottom will drop out, with widespread lows between 20 below and 30 below across northern areas, and lows between 10 below and 15 below into Bristol Bay. In addition to the cold temperatures, strengthening high pressure over the eastern Bering along with a low in the Gulf will result in strengthening northerly winds across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. Cold temperatures and winds combined will cause another round of wind chills dropping to between 40 below and 50 below, especially along the coast of the Kuskokwim Delta and in a corridor between Dillingham and Iliamna. Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for these cold wind chills.

This pattern is expected to persist right through the weekend, as the highly amplified and otherwise stagnant and unchanging upper level pattern continues to support the strong high pressure off the coast with a low in the Gulf. Thus, the very cold temperatures and winds will also continue through the weekend.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday) .

The Bering Sea will generally be split by a very persistent and strong area of high pressure over the eastern part of the basin, and a strong low south of the western Aleutians causing strong east to southeasterly winds, occasionally reaching storm force, and steady rain and snow showers. Under the high over the eastern Bering, the primary weather story will be strong northeasterly winds from off the mainland moving over the relatively cold waters, causing widespread areas of heavy freezing spray, especially by Thursday night over nearly the entire eastern Bering. The strong winds will also be stronger as they are funneled through bays and passes as well.

Across the central Aleutians and western Bering, strong easterly winds on the north side of a strong North Pacific low are expected to persist into the day Saturday, but they should gradually shift northward with time. Thus, the strongest winds should be north of the chain by Friday evening. The influx of colder air from further east along with the mixing of warmer Pacific air around the low will cause temperatures to remain around or slightly above freezing, and as such, precipitation type issues are likely.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday).

Gulf of Alaska:

Weak low pressure will persist over the Gulf of Alaska Friday through Monday and then a second weak low enters the GOA Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong thermal gradient has set up where brutally cold temperatures reside over land and mild temperature are over the Gulf Of Alaska. The expectation is that enhanced offshore winds and gap winds will develop resulting in areas of heavy to light freezing spray and enhanced sea states. The areas of concern at this time are the Copper River Delta along with Kamishak Bay through the Barren Islands.

Bering Sea and Aleutians:

A strong low centered south of the western Aleutians will keep widespread gales with occasional embedded storms ongoing across the central and western Bering Friday. The Gales will likely be over the western bering Sea Saturday and Sunday. Seas of 20 to 30 ft are expected over a large area of the central and western Bering and Aleutians Friday and Saturday. Heavy freezing spray is expected Saturday north and east of the Pribilof Islands.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Tuesday).

The big picture will be low pressure persisting over the Gulf of Alaska and south of the Aleutians with strong high pressure over the eastern Bering Sea and fierce cold air advection over the mainland. For the mainland this translates to below normal temperatures this forecast period. The Climate Prediction Center which is part of the National Weather Service anticipates that these below normal temperatures will persist into the 8-14 Day Outlook. This pattern will result in enhanced offshore flow and gap winds. Models are in good agreement with the longwave pattern over the mainland, Gulf Of Alaska and Bering through the forecast period.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Wind Chill Advisory 155 161. MARINE . Gale 121 127 129 138 150 170 172-175 178 185 Storm 175 176 177. Heavy Freezing Spray 121 127 129 130 132 138 139 150 160 165 179 180 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KH SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . PJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmN3NW4CalmNW3CalmW3NW4CalmW4SE5S3CalmS5CalmS3SE4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE6
2 days agoN5NW5N6N6N4N3W3NW5N6N4N3N4N5N5N6N5N6N5N3N3W4CalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Naknek Air Base, Naknek River, Alaska
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Naknek Air Base
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Thu -- 12:34 AM AKST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:03 AM AKST     2.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:42 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:30 PM AKST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM AKST     2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:02 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.82.12.11.91.71.51.10.80.50.2-0.1-0.2-01.22.42.82.72.52.21.91.61.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Omakstalia Point, Naknek River, Alaska
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Omakstalia Point
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Thu -- 01:18 AM AKST     6.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:42 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:19 AM AKST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:57 PM AKST     7.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:02 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.15.765.65.14.33.42.51.50.70-0.30.53.56.77.97.77.16.35.34.12.91.91.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.