Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 10:13 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 2:20 PM

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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 347 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.Tonight - NW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Thu and Thu night - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Fri - N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Sat - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Sun - N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 032126 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 126 PM AKDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS

The main upper pattern has general agreement through much of the extended period. There are differences in the minor details, but overall confidence in the forecast is high through the next several days. An upper low currently in the Bering Sea will shift southeast into the Gulf of Alaska through Monday, and will quickly be followed by a secondary upper low for mid to late week. Several embedded shortwaves will eject northward across the Interior bringing increased potential for shower with each wave. Upper troughing will also move across the North Slope early in the forecast period, becoming the secondary upper low over the Bering Sea for late in the period. There will be elevated fire weather concerns for the area near Delta Junction on Saturday due to gusty winds and low humidity values. Winter Weather conditions due to snow and blowing snow will also impact portions of the north slope over the weekend. Strong winds are also forecast across the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island tonight into Monday morning. We will continue to monitor river conditions through the weekend. Some minor flooding due to snowmelt will continue along the Tanana River near Fairbanks through early the mid week.

DISCUSSION

Warm conditions look to return to Interior Alaska for Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with perhaps few lower 60s. A cold front will arrive for early in the work week, with temperatures falling off about 10 degrees. However, temperatures will rebound starting Wednesday, with highs reaching back into 50s and possibly lower 60s. Overnight lows look to remain at or above freezing through the extended period. This will aid in snowmelt across the Interior with localized flooding possible on area streams and creeks. Generally scattered showers are expected on Saturday as an upper wave lifts north across central Alaska. A brief break is forecast Sunday ahead of the next upper wave. More scattered showers are expected Monday into Tuesday before drier conditions spread across the Interior for mid week. Shower activity looks to return by late in the forecast period, with perhaps a couple of thunderstorms by Friday across the far southeast zones. Fire weather conditions are forecast for Saturday due to low humidity values and gusty winds for areas near Delta Junction and Fort Greeley. Chinook winds off the Alaska Range will gust overnight into Saturday morning in the 30 to 50 mph range. Winds should dissipate over this region by tomorrow night. As mentioned above, temperatures look to remain at or above freezing for the next several days, which will aid snowmelt and lead to high stream flows.

Upper energy will move across the North Slope through much of the extended period. Periods of snow and blowing snow will continue through the extended period. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the central Brooks Range to the Beaufort coast where 2 to 4 inches of snow and gusty winds are expected tonight through Sunday afternoon. This snow is in response to an upper trough skirting the Beaufort coast. This upper wave will shift west across the North Slope through Monday, with light snow moving west with it. Continued upper level energy will shift west across the North Slope through the week, each bringing a period of light snowfall to the region. Overall, temperatures will remain cold with single digits to lower teens through the weekend, then moderating through the week into the 20s along the coast, to 30s inland along the Brooks Range.

An upper low currently over the Bering Sea will continue to lift moisture northward across the Yukon Delta tonight into Saturday.
Periods of rain and snow are expected through the weekend as the upper low track southeast into the Gulf of Alaska. A brief break in precipitation is forecast for early in the work week, before the secondary system drops south out of the Bering Strait and into the Bering Sea. Showers are expected to develop across the Lisburne Peninsula on Tuesday, and track southward into the Seward Peninsula for mid week. Temperatures look to remain the 30s and 40s, and any snow through the extended period should remain confined to the coast. As for winds, brisk northeast winds will spread across the Bering Strait and across St. Lawrence Island tonight through Monday morning. It has been warm along the Bering Strait coast, and snowpack is likely melted and refrozen, therefore, blowing snow will likely not be an issue. That being said, a few areas of blowing snow could be possible with localized reduced visibility.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag conditions are forecast for Saturday for portions of the Tanana Valley, especially for areas near Delta Junction and Fort Greeley. Chinook winds are expected overnight into Saturday afternoon, and gap wind prone areas could see gusts 30 to 50 mph.
Humidity values are expected to fall near 20 percent on Saturday.
Winds look to subside by late Saturday afternoon across the Alaska Range. Rain and snow showers will be possible from early the mid week with slightly cooler temperatures and higher humidity values.
A small threat for thunderstorms arrives for late in the extended forecast period for southeast zones near the ALCAN border, but confidence in occurrence is low at this time.

HYDROLOGY

The Yukon River near Eagle continues to have high water and a minor ice jam in place with ice in place down river from Eagle. A SPS remains in place for this area. The Tanana River is partially ice free and minor flooding due to snowmelt is expected. A Flood Watch is in effect from Salcha to Fairbanks. Minor flooding has been reported in the Rosie Creek subdivision.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808-810.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
Flood Watch for AKZ840-844.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Gale Warning for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-813-814-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ810-850-853-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-856-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859-861.

Black Rock
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:55 AM AKDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:57 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:39 AM AKDT     8.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:20 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:59 PM AKDT     2.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:56 PM AKDT     6.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Hagemeister Island (north end)
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:20 AM AKDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:00 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:56 AM AKDT     9.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:23 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:20 PM AKDT     2.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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