Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Covenant Life, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:05PM Wednesday February 19, 2020 10:10 PM AKST (07:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:20AMMoonset 12:27PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 739 Pm Akst Wed Feb 19 2020
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
Thu..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Thu night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow in the evening, then snow showers and rain showers late.
Fri..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
Fri night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..S wind 10 kt becoming e. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Covenant Life, AK
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location: 58.88, -136.57     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 192314 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 214 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

SHORT TERM. A strong front originating along the eastern Aleutians at this time looks to dump heavy snow on the South Klondike Highway, pour rain across Southeast Alaska, and spread strong winds across the region. In fact, high wind gusts of 60 mph now look possible for both Yakutat and Juneau, and cannot be ruled out for a few other locations in the northern Panhandle and eastern Gulf Coast. High wind watches will be posted shortly for the Juneau and Yakutat. Looking at model soundings, impressive wind speeds lie at the inversion level and just below. MOS numbers push Juneau in excess of 30 kt sustained. Yakutat will be a tougher case, but coordination with OPC highlighted the front's instability and added group confidence for expanding storm force winds from Cape Suckling southeast to Cape Edgecumbe. Inner Channel winds were largely raised to gale force with the uncertain exception of Lynn Canal where parallel flow may serve to limit wind speeds but confidence is low. Likewise even in areas outside the high wind watches in Juneau and Yakutat, we do expect gusts from 40 to 50 mph likely. Due to consistent ridging, Skagway looks to blow strong throughout most of the short-term period.

Now we turn our attention to Skagway. The previous winter storm warning for the Klondike and White Pass verified in a big way, with estimates of one foot of snow over the pass this morning. We foresee another big event beginning Thursday morning as snow quickly becomes heavy over the pass. Snow showers will keep moderate snow in the forecast through Thursday night as well. All in all, we expect another 8 to 12 inches of snow for White Pass Thursday and Thursday night.

Finally, we expect good mixing with all these winds to keep temperatures warm enough to produce rain and lots of it, rather than snow for the rest of Southeast. In fact, we expect many parts of the Panhandle to receive an inch of rain or more on just Thursday alone.

Weather begins to calm down Friday. A ridge builds in with some progressively cooler air pushing through into Friday night. But we are expecting little if any snow accumulation. Instead just an unimpactful mix of precip in showers. Winds also calm down significantly as well, although some breezy conditions could persist for the northern Panhandle through Friday morning.

Friday night as a new system prepares to undercut Southeast Alaska, some light snow could increase into Saturday morning. But this is early to nail things down.

Forecast confidence is moderately high. NAM, GFS, NAMNest and other high res models were used to fine-tune the forecast.

LONG TERM. The challenges of winter-time split flow persist in the mid- range into early next week, as moist Pacific systems rail across 50 N and occasionally from latitudes southward and interact with persistent and colder Bering Sea systems that periodically replant themselves in the Gulf of Alaska. This introduces many complications that frankly models (and forecasters) often struggle with. With temperatures marginally hovering in the meteorologically scary neighborhood of the mythically well-marked rain/snow line, small error potential can span the impact scale from little to great.

After a vigorous front clears the Panhandle a maritime, a relatively cool air mass spreads across Southeast Alaska, supporting showers. These showers will fall as mainly rain for the south and a mix for the north. Poorly resolved short- waves could enhance some accumulations during this time, especially as thicknesses and temperatures drop into Friday night.

Saturday, it increasingly looks as though the southern stream energy becomes even more active as a storm looks to barrel into the BC coast. This helps speed cooling across Southeast and probably increases frontogenesis somewhere across either the eastern gulf of Alaska or the Coastal Panhandle. Much of this precipitation could fall as snow, given low thicknesses and cooling 850 mb temperatures. While it is still an evolving story, we lowered QPF during the weekend, as uncertainty is uncomfortably high. Yet it is certainly plausible that a few communities could get significant snow from this scenario. Eventually, either Sunday or Sunday night the steering flow turns westerly and potentially sets up another overrunning event late in the weekend or early next week. But should the southern track rob the north of moisture, this setup may be much ado about nothing.

Ensembles and operational runs then hint at a more deeply subtropical system perhaps beginning as snow and ending as rain for much of the Panhandle mid next week. When exactly this happens, we are still merely wagering. But as we hinted earlier, there is confidence that Southeast Alaska region-wide will experience a cool-down this weekend into at least Monday before warming into mid next week. This probably means more snow for some.

Westerly winds Friday will be relatively high in the gulf with widespread 30 kt and even some gale force winds. But as the system to the south nears the BC Coast, winds largely diminish across the Panhandle even as the Inner Channels flip north Saturday. Winds look to have little impact this weekend until an anticipated front arrives mid next week with strong southeasterlies.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ026. Strong Wind from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for AKZ027. High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for AKZ025. Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for AKZ022. Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for AKZ023. Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ020. Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for AKZ021. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 3 AM AKST Friday for AKZ018. Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for AKZ017. MARINE . Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052. Gale Warning for PKZ022-031>034-036-041-042-053. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-035.



JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 47 mi44 min SSE 4.1 G 8 36°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 47 mi60 min SW 24 G 27 39°F 1011.8 hPa
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi52 min 38°F 42°F1013.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAEL

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------W8--W10----W10W10--Calm
1 day ago------------------------------E10--E10--E12--E12--E12
2 days ago------------------------------N8--5--N10--Calm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Composite Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:34 AM AKST     4.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:33 AM AKST     16.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:13 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:15 PM AKST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1413.311.38.76.34.84.76.18.711.614.215.815.914.411.57.73.90.9-0.5-02.25.69.312.5

Tide / Current Tables for Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Muir Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:36 AM AKST     4.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:26 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:34 AM AKST     16.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:17 PM AKST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1413.311.38.86.34.84.76.18.611.614.215.815.914.411.67.83.91-0.5-02.25.59.212.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.