Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Covenant Life, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:19PM Sunday August 25, 2019 9:05 AM AKDT (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:27PMMoonset 4:50PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 836 Am Akdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Today..Light winds becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain late.
Mon..NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Covenant Life, AK
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location: 58.88, -136.57     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 251347
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
547 am akdt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis Low pressure in the northwest gulf dissipates as more
low pressure develops in the southwest gulf this afternoon. The
low in the southwest gulf then tracks into the eastern gulf
through Tuesday evening. A front lifts across the eastern gulf
Monday and into southeast alaska Monday night. A ridge of high
pressure over the inner channels shifts east into western canada
Sunday night.

Short term Numerous showers occurred over most portions of
southeast alaska overnight. Some of the showers produced heavy
rates of rainfall overnight; however, actual 12-hour rainfall
amounts, although not insignificant, mainly were under a half
inch. An intense short-wave yesterday evening depicted in wv
imagery shot across the northern gulf Saturday and the north-
central panhandle Saturday evening. This feature clearly enhanced
showers. But upon approaching the coast mountains, a thunderstorm
erupted in the holkham bay, tracy arm, and endicott arm area.

Following the short-wave's crossing into bc, lightning ended over
our region.

A weak ridge of high pressure over the panhandle will strengthen
through this evening. Orographically enhanced showers will tend
toward weakening through tonight as the ridge sharpens ahead of
a big storm approaching southeast on Monday. So far, consensus is
only marginally better, but changes were made with the ECMWF and
06z NAM and canadian through Monday night to elevate qpf, and some
pop adjustments were made to reflect this. As best we can tell
rain will begin along the immediate coast early Monday morning and
quickly spread inland through the day. At this point most all
points within the panhandle look to receive 1 to 2 inches Monday
and Monday night. The one exception being yakutat who looks to
receive less than an inch. But even as the weather front presses
northward and hangs up across the northern panhandle, a
deformation band looks to set up somewhere ahead of the main low
center. Should the deformation band set up over the panhandle, the
north-central panhandle from sitka to juneau may see heavy rain
persist well into Monday night.

Winds will likely be a factor as much as heavy rain. We increased
them once again over the outer gulf to around 30 kt. As guidance
narrows on the position of the low, we may increase them further
to gales. Some work was also done through the inner channels with
higher increases of easterlies through cross sound. Strong wind
gusts of 45 mph or so are possible from sitka southeast to
ketchikan and all points between. While only hinted at in the
forecast, we hope to better define regions of strong wind gusts
in the near future.

Forecast confidence is medium high, with some details yet to
completely iron out.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday night ... An upper low will
be moving ashore near CAPE fairweather at the start of this long
range forecast period. A short wave trough with a 100kt jet max
will be located over the southern panhandle. A much larger and
positively tilted upper trough will extend from the upper low wsw
to the far southwest gulf. This larger trough will pinch off an
upper low and become more north-south oriented by Wednesday
morning. The CAPE fairweather low will have tracked well to the
east - to the nwt - by that time and the jet core will have
shifted north to the central panhandle as a broad upper ridge
builds north over the eastern gulf and southeast alaska.

At the surface, the low associated with the upper low will be
located west of cross sound, south of yakutat, and weakening as it
moves slowly to the southeast. Showers will be diminishing through
Tuesday and by Wednesday morning all of southeast alaska should be
dry, if not sunny. The dry weather should reliably last through
Thursday night. By Friday morning, wpc and the national blend are
trying to build in precipitation from the west. ECMWF is pushing a
front over the northern panhandle from the southwest at that
time, and the GFS is totally dry. As a result, confidence in a dry
weekend is below average.

Models are still trying to bring down daytime highs for the second
half of this week. We are now looking at highs in the second half
of the week in the mid to upper 60s. Not the 70s we were
originally expecting, but still solidly above normal for this time
of the year.

Aviation If TAF writing were a video game, this would be level
five difficulty, given showers and their inherent ceiling and
visibility variability, potential clearing, and fog formation. Our
synoptic skill level can only hope to negate the noise of volatile
changeability at the convective mesoscale level. Therefore, 12z
tafs strove to maintain mean conditions and not to gamble on
extremed out there. Because of atmospheric instability, we feel
that any fog that forms will be fairly temporary, and that low
stratus will be more likely to occur. We do expect some modest
improvements to occur into the afternoon, but confidence in not
great. We anticipate a slight deterioration overall tonight with
boundary layer cooling. Winds will not be factor during this taf
period with sheer from the next storm likely holding off until
after 12z Monday.

Marine Conditions will be benign today and tonight across most
of the area (less than 25 kt winds); however, a barrier jet in the
northern gulf tips marine zone 52 into small craft early Monday
morning. Winds and seas only grow into Tuesday. We lowered seas
over the next 12 to 18 hours or so to better reflect buoy
indicated sea-states.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz052.

Jwa fritsch
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 47 mi39 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 53°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 47 mi55 min SW 18 G 19 55°F 1013 hPa55°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi47 min 1018.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK48 mi17 minN 07.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity55°F53°F94%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEL

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--4--NW9--NW10--NW10--NW10--------------------------Calm
1 day ago--E12--E15--E10------E8--------------------------4
2 days ago--E7--E11--5--E7--------------------------E12--E9

Tide / Current Tables for Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Composite Island
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Sun -- 03:51 AM AKDT     2.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:05 AM AKDT     11.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:49 PM AKDT     5.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:49 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:52 PM AKDT     14.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.16.64.432.63.45.27.49.51111.511.210.28.87.36.366.78.410.612.714.214.613.9

Tide / Current Tables for Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Muir Inlet
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Sun -- 03:53 AM AKDT     2.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:06 AM AKDT     11.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:51 PM AKDT     5.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM AKDT     14.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.26.74.532.63.35.17.49.51111.511.210.28.87.46.366.78.310.512.614.114.613.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.