Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Levelock, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 10:59PM Sunday July 25, 2021 7:33 AM AKDT (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 5:48AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Levelock, AK
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location: 58.97, -156.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 251257 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 457 AM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A weakening system cycles a couple of shortwaves across the southern Gulf as it continues its southeastward trek into the North Pacific. Simultaneously, a system of low pressure is developing within the heart of an arctic trough and will spend today into tomorrow pushing across the AKPen towards the North Pacific. Both systems will lead to increased cloudiness and possible rain showers over their respective areas, as well as some increased winds near the Eastern Aleutians and Southern AKPen. Upper level ridging and areas of high pressure dominate much of the Southern Mainland through Tuesday. This is a good onshore flow pattern for Southwest Alaska, so anticipate fog development at times. Further west, a trough moves into the western Bering later tonight, thus showers and increased winds are likely for the Western and Central Aleutians. There is some weak cyclonic development at the surface at the base of the trough that scoots south of the Aleutians through Tuesday.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in good overall synoptic agreement through the short term. Models are actually doing much better than they have been the passed few days. Discrepancies are quite small, with some timing issues for an upper level shortwave passing over the Anchorage/Mat Valley areas. Also, the GFS brings in some light precipitation with this wave, where as the NAM pushes the precipitation further east, confining it to the mountains.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Tuesday morning) .

An upper-level easterly wave moving into the Copper River Basin from the Yukon Territory this morning is producing an area of rain from the Wrangells southwest to Cordova and eastern Prince William Sound. This feature will weaken as it moves over coastal Southcentral, with rain tapering off by afternoon. Elsewhere, clouds will linger underneath an upper-level ridge building in from the west. Scattered showers are also expected to continue through the afternoon hours, mainly over the higher terrain, before diminishing as drier air advects over the region. The ridge becomes the more dominant feature across Southcentral by Monday morning. As such, cloud cover is expected to diminish across interior Southcentral as the drying trend continues.

The challenge in the short term will be the extent of marine stratus that is expected to develop as the low currently over the Gulf is replaced with a surface ridge. Subsidence ahead of the upper-level ridge will help trap low-level moisture underneath the surface ridge, allowing low stratus and perhaps fog to develop by Monday morning. With weak flow along the immediate coast, a light northeasterly flow along Kodiak Island, and an up-inlet flow over Cook Inlet, it is possible that low stratus advects toward coastal locations for early Monday morning. As a broad, yet weak northerly flow develops aloft Monday afternoon, it is also possible that a weak surface trough develops over eastern Prince William Sound. If this occurs, low stratus and/or fog could also be drawn over Cordova by late Monday into Tuesday. The continued weak flow may signal the return of low stratus for early Tuesday morning along eastern Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet; however, with a shortwave approaching from Southwest Alaska, there is less confidence in this scenario, especially for Cook Inlet.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Sunday and Monday) .

Mostly overcast skies and cooler temperatures will persist over Southwest Alaska through Monday. The offshore flow that lead to warmer temperatures over Bristol Bay and the Middle Kuskokwim the past few days has transitioned to onshore flow, allowing low stratus over the Bering Sea to move into the region. A few showers are possible, mainly over the high terrain of the Western Alaska Range and Kuskokwim Mountains, but overall the region should remain rain free. The one exception to this is over the northern Kuskokwim Delta where a series of weak shortwaves will bring light rain today and again Monday afternoon. Areas to the north of the Aleutian Range may see the sun poke through the clouds on Monday as lee side subsidence begins to dry out the area.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Sunday and Monday) .

Seasonal fog and low stratus will persist throughout the region. A shortwave currently north of Adak will bring light to moderate rain to the Pribilof Islands, eastern Aleutians, and AKPen today before diving into the north Pacific Monday morning. Winds are expected to reach 30 mph over the eastern Aleutians and gaps of the AKPen today before the low weakens Monday morning. A trailing, weaker low will bring rain to the central Aleutians on Monday before also moving into the north Pacific.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday).

A low tracking across the far northwestern Bering Sea will push a front eastward across the Bering Tuesday and to the west coast of Alaska on Wednesday. Expect a wide swath of small craft southerlies with this front across the open waters of the Bering Sea as well as the Southwest Alaska coastal waters. There is potential for a smaller area of gale force winds, most likely off the Kuskokwim Delta coast (including Nunivak Island area). Winds will then quickly diminish Wednesday night through Thursday.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday) .

Subsident dry air will maintain its strong presence across Southwest and Southcentral the first two days as a result of a strong surface to upper-level ridge. Subsequently, a broad long-wave associated with a Siberian low rotates across the northern Bering and toward the Southwest coast and Bristol Bay between Thursday morning and Friday morning. Model solutions differ on how fast the ridge breaks down and how far eastward the aforementioned trough progresses into southern Alaska. Most likely, dry and warm conditions over Southwest Alaska mid week will give way to clouds and good chances for rain Thursday through Saturday. Southcentral Alaska is more likely to remain under the influence of the upper level ridge. This could mean multiple days of warm and dry conditions, with at least some sunshine likely each day.

As for the Bering Sea and Aleutians, the bulk of the upper trough and surface front will pass across the Bering Sea, with just a brief glancing blow along the Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula. Ridging in place prior to and behind these features will lead to the very seasonal areas of low clouds and fog. It does look like potential for a stronger low to enter the region next weekend.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . CB/SEB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK26 mi39 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast47°F44°F90%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S11S10S9S11S10S8S6S6S7S9SW8SW7SW8SW7S6SW5S5S6SW6SW8SW5SW5SW6
1 day agoNW4NW4NW6NW6N6N7NW9N9NW10N10NE7NW6W8W6CalmW5CalmSW7S6S6S6S7SE8S7
2 days agoS6S6S3S4CalmSE3CalmW4Calm3N9N10N5NE6NE6N4N4N5N5N5N4N4CalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak, Kvichak River, Alaska
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Kvichak
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Sun -- 12:13 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:01 AM AKDT     -1.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:43 AM AKDT     18.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:08 PM AKDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM AKDT     13.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-1.316.813.217.718.817.91613.410.57.44.72.71.94.29.713.213.11210.38.15.63.2

Tide / Current Tables for Levelock, Kvichak River, Alaska
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Levelock
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Sun -- 12:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:45 AM AKDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:59 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:35 AM AKDT     11.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:45 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:53 PM AKDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:04 PM AKDT     7.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:06 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.1-0.6-0.62.3710.51110.59.68.26.753.42.11.31.14.77.97.77.16.25.13.8

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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