Friday, September18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia Village, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 8:12PM Friday September 18, 2020 8:11 AM AKDT (16:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 7:08PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 735 Am Akdt Fri Sep 18 2020
Today..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon through Tue..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia Village, AK
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location: 59.25, -151.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 181302 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 502 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A large stacked low is continuing to work its way north into Norton Sound and the Seward Peninsula this morning with a weakening dry slot now approaching the AlCan border. Areas of showers are working their way back into the the southwestern mainland and Mat-Su Valleys behind the drier air that was potent enough to temporarily clear out nearly all cloud cover over Southcentral earlier on Thursday afternoon. The tap of tropical moisture along and ahead of the low's front has now shifted to the east over the AK Panhandle, and this will mark the end to the heavier/steady precip that tracked through much of the area on Thursday. Local effect winds are still going strong with up inlet flow becoming solidly established. The gap winds through the Knik and Turnagain Arms that were earlier gusting up to 60-70 mph in mainly the far southeast Anchorage hillsides are gradually beginning to decrease with the low pulling away and the pressure gradient slowly relaxing.

A couple shortwaves are now moving along the Aleutians out west in the broad cyclonic flow now in place around the low centered to the north with limited impacts in the immediate term aside from a few bands of lower clouds. Streaks of low clouds are also drifting over much of the Bering around and south of the low center. Overall, the most dominant impacts with the main system appear to be well on the downswing this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in good agreement that the low near the Seward Peninsula will continue to weaken and drift northeast towards the Beaufort Sea, though there are some subtle discrepancies with the next couple shortwaves that will move from the Aleutians to the AK Gulf Saturday to Sunday. Some models show a deformation band of rain (with possible high elevation snow) develop along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Chugach Mountains to the north of a low that should be moving well into the Gulf by Sunday. Determining precip placement and even precip type near mountain peaks will be a potential forecast challenge for near the end of the weekend. Additionally, another Western Bering low will come into play from the west by Saturday that could produce gale to storm force winds as it moves in.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions will mainly continue, though there could be occasional MVFR conditions with passing showers until Friday afternoon. LLWS around 20 kts may persist through midday Friday. Gusty south to southeast winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday Night) .

Southcentral is on the southeast side of a large upper level low, which formed following the passage of the strong low that caused yesterday's winds. The low is directing southwesterly flow across the area. This is allowing upslope flow to produce rain shower activity from Anchorage east, as the winds run up against the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains. As this large-scale weather scenario will be very slow to change, expect the best chances of precipitation in areas near the mountains, especially in the Mat- Su Valleys and the northern and eastern Prince William Sound. In other areas, especially Anchorage and the Western Kenai Peninsula, today will be a mostly dry day, though a stray shower can't be ruled out. This will be mixed with a bit of sunshine as well. Winds across the area persist this morning, but will continue to gradually diminish through the day. This will remain steady-state into Saturday morning.

Then on Saturday, a robust upper level trough will approach Southcentral from the west, circulating around the upper low that will be retreating to the Arctic coast. There is significant model disagreement about how strong the upper level trough will be, and how quickly it moves through the area. For the most part, the models agree that the trough will be weakening as it moves across the Cook Inlet region Saturday and Saturday night. Since the trough will be negatively tilted, which supports the development of precipitation, most of the models develop an area of precipitation anywhere from Anchorage east to western Prince William Sound Saturday evening through the overnight. That is where the agreement ends. The westernmost models developing precipitation over Anchorage would result in a period of cold rain for the Bowl. The easternmost keep the band east of Girdwood. The middle ground solution favored with this forecast package develops the precipitation from the upper Hillside over Palmer, then up to Hatcher Pass. Thus, lowered some of the precipitation chances for the Bowl Saturday and Saturday night, while raising them along the mountains. During the day, the precipitation will be all rain, however, as slightly cooler air moves in overnight, snow levels will drop to allow termination dust for higher elevation areas from Glen Alps to Hatcher Pass. In Hatcher Pass, there is potential for several inches of snow accumulation by Sunday morning.

Shower activity will continue on Sunday across Prince William Sound on through the Copper River Basin, while rain shower activity continues in the mountains north and east of Anchorage.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The low pressure system that brought the region widespread rain yesterday is now over Norton Sound. This low will continue to slowly drift northward over the next few days. As it continues to meander near Nome while weakening the next few days, upper level waves of energy will continue to rotate around the upper level low through Southwest Alaska. This will keep the risk for rain showers in the forecast each day of the forecast period. 850 mb temperatures will slowly cool each day resulting in slightly cooler morning temperatures for Saturday and Sunday morning. Saturday morning low will drop into the mid 30s to near 40 degrees in the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Y-K Delta with mid to upper 40s for the coastal regions. Sunday morning will be even cooler with low to mid 30s across the inland areas and low 40s along the coastal regions.

Breezy conditions will continue through today as the pressure gradient remains in tact. This pressure gradient will begin to lessen late today into this evening resulting in diminishing winds across the area.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A low pressure system continues to move quickly southeastward across the southern Bering and the eastern Aleutian Chain bringing a quick burst of rain to these areas as well as an area of small crafts to the marine zones to the south of the Chain. This low will be moving into the western Gulf by Saturday morning.

The next big weather maker will be a storm system that will be developing off a 120-140 kt jet racing northward from the western Pacific towards the western Aleutians. The warm front from this system will begin to spread rain across the western Aleutian Chain this afternoon and this evening with increasing winds. As the baroclinicity strengthens, this storm will begin to rapidly intensify overnight tonight into Saturday morning. The front end of this system will mainly bring gale force winds to the region as the air will be a little more stable resulting in less mixing of the higher winds aloft to the surface. On the backside of the low, storm force sustained winds and storm force gusts are expected for the western to central Aleutian Chain beginning Saturday night and continuing through the day Sunday. Cold air advection will take over on the backside creating a more unstable atmospheric profile resulting in the higher winds aloft being mixed down to the surface. Widespread rain is expected for the western to central Chain beginning late this afternoon through Saturday. This system will continue moving eastward into the Bering Saturday night into Sunday spreading rain to the Pribilofs and the eastern Aleutians including Dutch Harbor. With the increasing winds, wave heights will be on the rise Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning with wave heights of 20-27 feet on the Pacific side of the Chain and wave heights of 10-15 feet on the Bering side.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

A strong low entering the Bering Sea on Saturday seems to be trending stronger with the newer model runs. Thus, expect gale force winds will more widespread in nature across the Bering Sea and Aleutians.Saturday night through Monday. There is also the possibility of a brief period of storm force winds along the Aleutian Chain as colder feeds into the back side of the storm Saturday night into Sunday. By Tuesday the low crosses over the Aleutians and moves into the Northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska. There is disagreement on the track, but with the latest models generally farther south, suspect the bulk of small craft/gale force winds may be confined to the southern Gulf/Kodiak Island.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday).

A strong low in the vicinity of the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula on Monday will continue southeastward into the Gulf/Northeast Pacific by Tuesday. Thus, rain and wind over the central to eastern Bering will shift south and eastward to Kodiak Island and the Gulf. Cold air advection behind the low will maintain robust northerlies across the eastern Bering and Southwest Alaska coastal waters all the way through Wednesday. Much of Southwest and Southcentral look drier on the northern periphery of the low Monday through Tuesday, with steady rain likely confined to the Gulf coast. However, it may not be completely dry over Southcentral, as most models indicate a short-wave trough moving through sometime Monday.

The forecast for late next week looks potentially "winter-like". Most models show a trough dropping out of the Arctic mid week, though there is disagreement on how far south the trough will make it. The GFS is most aggressive in driving cold air (down to -10 degrees C at 850 mb) down across Southwest Alaska, then potentially interacting with energy being pulled from the Gulf/Northeast Pacific up to Southcentral. At a minimum, could be a round of mountain snow. Stay tuned, as forecast confidence is quite low at this point in time.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 177 178 411 413. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . KM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 20 mi72 min 52°F1003.8 hPa (+0.9)
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 24 mi102 min SW 4.1 52°F 1002 hPa45°F
HMSA2 24 mi40 min SW 8 G 14 53°F 1001.3 hPa44°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 30 mi42 min S 7 G 8.9 51°F 1004.5 hPa47°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 36 mi42 min WSW 20 G 30 51°F 1004.6 hPa48°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK19 mi19 minVar 410.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F86%1004.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASO

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm4CalmS9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm334CalmS533
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S76CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Picnic Harbor, Rocky Bay, Alaska
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Picnic Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:44 AM AKDT     14.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:43 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:54 AM AKDT     -1.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:22 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:12 PM AKDT     14.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:07 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:15 PM AKDT     -1.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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912.214.314.713.410.46.42.2-0.8-1.8-0.42.86.710.413.214.51411.783.90.4-1.3-0.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Tutka Bay,Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Tutka Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:33 AM AKDT     22.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:22 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:42 AM AKDT     -3.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:57 PM AKDT     22.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:06 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:04 PM AKDT     -2.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.813.718.721.82219.214.17.81.8-2.2-2.9-0.34.81116.82122.520.816.510.54.2-0.6-2.6-1.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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