Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia Village, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 9:07PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 6:14 AM AKDT (14:14 UTC) Moonrise 8:23PMMoonset 6:00AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 326 Am Akdt Wed Apr 8 2020
.small craft advisory through tonight...
Today..N wind 25 kt becoming nw 20 kt by late morning. Gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft late.
Thu..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia Village, AK
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location: 59.25, -151.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 081152 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 352 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The mature, vertically stacked low that helped to verify the Winter Storm Warning in Kodiak overnight has moved into the northern Gulf this morning. Conditions have improved for Kodiak as the low has lifted northward, allowing for winds and snow to start diminishing. The barrier jet that brought storm force winds along the North Gulf Coast is beginning to weaken this morning as a few snow showers continue to linger across the coastal locations this morning.

An upper level ridge continuing to build into Southwest Alaska has helped to keep the region relatively dry and clear overnight through the morning hours today stretching all the way across to the central Aleutians. Behind this surface high pressure, a front associated with a weakening low is crossing over the western Aleutians is moving towards Adak, bringing stronger winds and showers as is progresses eastward.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue to be in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern, leading to higher forecast confidence in the short term.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist. Expect strong wind gusts to taper off by late morning.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Friday night) .

A vertically stacked low over the northern Gulf will exit to the northeast Gulf this afternoon. Snow in the Prince William Sound area will taper off this morning, as it spreads north and east across the Copper River Basin. A secondary weak upper level trough will cause light snow showers to linger in the Copper River Basin through tonight with little or no accumulation. Meanwhile, weak cold air advection behind the low combined with tight pressure gradients between the exiting low and high pressure building in from the Bering Sea will maintain windy conditions across the Gulf through tonight before diminishing tomorrow. Similarly, strong gap winds along the north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound will peak this morning, then very slowly diminish this afternoon through tomorrow.

High pressure will build overhead and lead to quiet conditions across Southcentral and the Gulf Thursday through Friday. With mostly clear skies both day and night, there will be a large diurnal range in temperatures of roughly 35 degrees or more. Thus, the freeze/thaw cycle will be in full force each day. Expect an overall warming trend as the ridge builds in and the arctic air mass in place moderates.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Fair skies are expected today under weak high pressure. Temperatures will remain approximately 10 degrees below average, climbing to near 20 over the Kuskokwim Delta and 30 over the Bristol Bay region. Clouds will increase Thursday as a warm front tracks over Southwest Alaska. Most areas will remain free of precipitation, however a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow cannot be ruled out across the Kuskokwim Delta, north of the front. Mostly sunny skies and slightly above-average temperatures are expected Friday as high pressure builds in across the region in the wake of the front.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Widespread snow showers are likely across the Pribilofs through early Thursday along a warm front. Partial clearing is expected thereafter, west of high pressure. Fair skies will persist across the central and eastern Aleutians under the aforementioned high, with showers will developing Friday afternoon ahead of a warm front. Active weather will continue across the western Bering/Aleutians as a series of fronts move over the region.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). (Friday through Sunday)

Bering Sea/Aleutians… A large area of low pressure will dominate much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians on Friday, with its central pressure near 1000 mb located over the western portions of the sea. Showery type precipitation is a good bet. An attendant surface front will bisect the east central Bering and Aleutians, but this front looks to remain below gale force. This front moves rapidly north on Saturday, away from the region. A north Pacific storm, in the neighborhood of 970 mb, lifts north towards Shemya on Saturday while remaining south of the island chain. Its associated surface front does progress into the western and central Aleutians though, with sustained gales possible.

Gulf of Alaska… High pressure in control of the northern and eastern Gulf on Friday moves eastward by Friday night, allowing a front to enter the southwestern Gulf. This front reaches the northern and eastern Gulf on Saturday, as a weak area of low pressure moves to a position southeast of Kodiak Island. The front then moves ashore by Sunday afternoon, with the weak low moving into the northern Gulf. Northwesterly offshore flow then develops near the Barren Islands and Kodiak Island.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7. Sat through Tue) .

For the long term, there remains consistency for an upper level ridge to remain present over the mainland of Alaska. While a warming trend to near average remains evident every day through Day 7, a somewhat unsettled pattern develops over the weekend. Therefore, confidence is average through Sunday. After Sunday, the models begin to diverge substantially leading to low confidence for Monday and Tuesday.

Over the Bering and the Aleutians, both the GFS and ECMWF show a similar upper level pattern with an upper trough over the North Pacific corresponding to a strong low at the surface to the south of the western Aleutians. The GFS keeps an extension of a weaker upper level ridge across the Bering from the main ridge over the mainland. This will help to keep the aforementioned system south and push the trough underneath the ridge keeping it over the North Pacific south of the Aleutian Chain. The ECMWF, however, weakens the ridge over the Bering and allows the surface front with the closed low to push into the western Bering early Sunday morning. There is average confidence with the low in the North Pacific with low confidence in the details of how this system progresses. Further east, there is average confidence that another weak system over the North Pacific will move northward toward Bristol Bay Saturday keeping the weather unsettled across the eastern Bering

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gales 119 121 125 127-32 139 175 176 413. Storm 120 351 352. Heavy Freezing Spray 180. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ALH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . MV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 20 mi75 min 38°F1005.2 hPa (+0.3)
HMSA2 24 mi43 min NE 11 G 17 27°F 1002.6 hPa12°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 30 mi45 min N 25 G 28 29°F 1005.4 hPa14°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 36 mi45 min NW 23 G 36 31°F 1004.2 hPa20°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK19 mi22 minN 710.00 miOvercast28°F15°F58%1005.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASO

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3N3N44N10NE9
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1 day ago--NE7S7--665E84
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34Calm5E443S7CalmCalm3S3CalmCalmS3
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Tide / Current Tables for Picnic Harbor, Rocky Bay, Alaska
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Picnic Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:30 AM AKDT     14.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:00 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:38 AM AKDT     -2.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:57 PM AKDT     14.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:53 PM AKDT     -1.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:06 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:24 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.412.614.414.412.59.24.90.8-1.9-2.2-0.23.27.210.813.214.113.110.46.62.6-0.4-1.30.13.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tutka Bay,Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Tutka Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:17 AM AKDT     22.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:59 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:28 AM AKDT     -4.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:45 PM AKDT     21.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:06 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:44 PM AKDT     -2.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:24 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.614.719.62221.417.812.15.5-0.3-3.6-3.6-0.35.111.417.120.821.619.314.58.32.3-1.9-2.7-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.