Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia Village, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:43PM Thursday April 22, 2021 5:32 PM AKDT (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:59PMMoonset 4:14AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 403 Pm Akdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia Village, AK
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location: 59.25, -151.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 230120 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 520 PM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The pattern aloft features a developing rex block. What is a rex block you say? A closed high pressure north of a closed low pressure system. What this does is stagnate the upper air pattern, keeping it mostly steady state as long as the block stays in place. Rather than the jet stream keeping a progressive change in the weather, the block forces the jet stream around the state, both to the north and to the south. Currently the high sits over the central portion of the state while the low pressure system is in the north Pacific, just south of the eastern Aleutians. There is a bit of active weather associated with the front between the two large scale systems, wrapping from the Adak/Atka area through the Bering Sea, and across the southwest mainland.

For sensible weather, that blocking high is keeping the Interior very clear, which extends down into Southcentral Alaska. The front is bringing rain from the Kuskokwim Delta through Bristol Bay region as well as the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula. Downslope drying, however, is taking a bite out of the precipitation in most locations.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Guidance is in great agreement with decaying the first low pressure system very quickly tonight, and replacing it with another from the northwest Pacific where it will spin in place south of the Alaska Peninsula for the next few days.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. It is possible that some light winds off Turnagain Arm will sneak into the terminal this evening, however they should remain light and not gusty.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A very similar pattern continues with a ridge of high pressure to the north and an area of low pressure south of Dutch Harbor. The ridge is keeping a front stalled across the central Gulf and across into Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai Peninsula. Rain should begin to dissipate this evening before completely tapering off tomorrow. Once that happens, sunshine will overtake all of Southcentral. Expect warm temperatures and light winds through the rest of the forecast period.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday) .

The upper level jet continues to pump moisture across Southwest Alaska as a weakening frontal system stalls over the area. Expect areas of rain showers in the lower elevations early tonight before tapering off later tonight. Another weak shortwave will kick off a few showers across Bristol Bay and coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta on Friday through Saturday morning. Drier conditions expected by Saturday afternoon with a decrease in cloud cover as high pressure over the interior tries to nudge into the area. On Sunday another low pressure system across the eastern Bering will bring clouds across the area and perhaps some light rain near coastal locations. Cloud cover and easterly winds should keep fog to a minimum across the area over the short term.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday) .

A broad area of low pressure dominates the area extending across most of the Bering and Aleutians. This system will continue to produce periodic showers with small craft winds or less across the area through tomorrow morning. The high pressure over mainland Alaska will pinch off the southern part of the low and leave a piece of energy to move across the western Bering on Friday with a few showers, but winds generally less than 25 knots. By Friday evening a gale force low moves towards the central Aleutians and then into the Bering on Saturday. This low will travel along the Aleutian chain towards the AKPEN by Sunday with winds near Gale force and light rain. Last but not least another shortwave will dive down across the western Bering on Sunday with small craft winds and slightly cooler air.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3 through 5 period.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

The big question for the extended forecast is how long does this blocking high pressure remain in place. Historically, model guidance struggles with such features and tends to break them down too fast once established. Dry and clear conditions can be expected for southcentral as long as that block stays in place, likely into early next week. The low pressure system that will be in place near the Alaska Peninsula will decay in place will keep some cloudiness and rain over the southwest mainland. Expect above normal temperatures across Southcentral Alaska to continue along with seasonally normal dry conditions.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Flood Warning 121 (Anchor River). MARINE . Gale Warning 170 172 174. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ML SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RC MARINE/LONG TERM . ML/MK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 20 mi45 min 41°F1016.7 hPa
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 24 mi63 min NE 6 1016 hPa
HMSA2 24 mi31 min NE 6 G 8 46°F 37°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 30 mi33 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 41°F 1017.2 hPa (-0.8)39°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 32 mi63 min 41°F 41°F1 ft
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 36 mi33 min NE 28 G 33 40°F 1016.1 hPa (-1.0)39°F
APXA2 43 mi108 min ENE 5.1 38°F 1018 hPa37°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK19 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast45°F39°F80%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASO

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3S6S8S6S5CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmN5Calm
1 day agoN4N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmN54N4CalmCalmCalmNE4
2 days agoE7S7S8S6S4S5S6S5Calm3SE6S66S754SW3CalmNE4553Calm4

Tide / Current Tables for Picnic Harbor, Rocky Bay, Alaska
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Picnic Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:29 AM AKDT     4.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:30 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:33 AM AKDT     10.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:58 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:09 PM AKDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:41 PM AKDT     10.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.38.26.85.64.94.95.66.78.19.510.410.59.57.85.63.51.91.21.52.84.879.110.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tutka Bay,Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Tutka Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:33 AM AKDT     6.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:24 AM AKDT     14.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:57 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:58 PM AKDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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13.813.111.69.67.76.56.57.49.11112.913.913.812.610.47.74.92.82.12.94.97.710.913.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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