Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia, AK

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for -

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition

Fxak68 pafc 191322 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 522 am akdt Mon aug 19 2019 Analysis and upper levels The overall longwave pattern remains similar to yesterday. A broad upper level high remains situated over the bering with lows on either side. This is leading to generally quiet conditions over the aleutians. The shortwave trough that contributed to the strong winds over southcentral today has moved offshore, however gusty northerly winds are presently continuing this morning in its wake. As such, low temperatures should remain on the warmer side where winds are the strongest. Model discussion Model agreement is good over the next 48 hours and confidence is moderate to high for this period. There is a noticeable difference late Tuesday into Wednesday with the european model tracking a relatively strong upper low well south of the alaska range, whereas all other major models keep it much further to the north. This would mean the difference between a mostly sunny day or a mostly cloudy day with widespread showers across southcentral. As the european is the only model showing the latter and the american canadian models have exhibited good run-to-run consistency, we are currently leaning towards those solutions in the latest forecast. Aviation Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Light northerly winds will generally persist through this morning. Though some uncertainty still exists, winds will likely shift to southeasterly by mid- afternoon, with brief gusts possible this evening. Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Mon and tue)... after the series of dry cold fronts from the weekend, the area will start to stabilize to start the week. Winds continue to diminish across all areas with the matanuska valley being the staunch hold out through the morning hours. Temperatures will be still a few degrees cooler than sun, with some of the lower lying valleys and parts of east anchorage starting out in the 30s. Smoke will be persistent across much of the susitna valley and the kenai peninsula. We expect some turnagain arm winds to develop later this afternoon and this should allow some of the smoke to filter back into the anchorage bowl as well. For tonight, expect low temperatures to be some of the coldest we have seen in a while with clear skies and light winds. By early tue, a weak front will slide from SW ak over kodiak island. This will bring a chance for light rain to kodiak and the coastal areas of the souther kenai peninsula. Unfortunately, not much, if any of this rain looks to make it inland to make much difference for the fire areas. Dry conditions look to continue for just about all inland areas through at least the middle of the week. Fire weather Another extraordinarily dry day with rh values dipping into the low 20s is in store for much of the area. The good news is that winds should be markedly lighter than they were over the weekend. The lone exception is the matanuska valley were winds continued to be strong and gusty all through the night. By later this morning, we expect those winds to slowly drop off as well. The dry airmass combined with those winds have severely limited recoveries in some locations. So far, the palmer airport has only been able to muster an unbelievable 33% rh overnight. As the northerly gradient decreases through the day, winds should become light and be mostly slope terrain driven this afternoon. The couple exceptions should be along the turnagain arm and the knik river valley where a light SE wind should start by late this afternoon. Tonight, much calmer conditions and better rh recoveries are expected as the area will be caught between systems. A very weak front will skirt through the kodiak island area on Tue bringing a chance for rain to coastal areas and increasing clouds further inland. Chances for any precipitation making it to the swan lake fire or further north are meager and limited to mountain showers.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3) High pressure in the bering will shift to the west, while a trough near the bering strait dives southward later today. What this means for sensible weather is that winds will initially be offshore along the kuskokwim delta coast and bristol bay coast, then become more variable under the influence of the trough. This trough will bring cooler conditions and a chance for precipitation this evening into tonight for the kuskokwim delta coast then reaching the bristol bay area by mid-day Tuesday. Expect a return to drier conditions by Wednesday as the trough exits to the east and high pressure develops to the west. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3) Strong upper ridging in the bering will retreat to the northwest, and a gale force low in the north pacific will push an occluded front towards the western aleutians. Expect precipitation in the western aleutians today, then spreading to the central and eastern aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday as a secondary low develops in the eastern periphery of the primary low. The western aleutians will see small craft advisory level winds today into Tuesday, with a small swath of gales embedded today south of the chain. Otherwise, north to northeast winds will continue over the pribilof islands, with a slight chance of precipitation Tuesday as a trough dips southward along the coast of western alaska. Fire weather While offshore flow will continue today over southwest, wind will be markedly weaker than yesterday, and conditions will be noticeably cooler as the warm air mass previously over the eastern bering retreats westward. That said, afternoon humidities may still approach critical values in the middle kuskokwim valley, and over the ridges in the kilbuck ahklun mountains and the alaska aleutian range today. Multiple fires continue to burn in the greater bristol bay area... judging by satellite-derived fire temperature, the most active fires in southwest are the ethel creek fire, roughly 40 miles northeast of koliganek, and a new start as of yesterday very near levelock. These fires will continue to be the main smoke producers, impacting surrounding areas and areas downstream. Farther away, a general haze will likely be detectable. An incoming trough should improve conditions by Tuesday. Marine (days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday) On Wednesday a surface low with a front across the western bering weakens into Thursday as a new low center develops south of the alaska peninsula. This low will then be the focus Thursday and Friday. There is high uncertainty in the track, strength and timing of this system and should be monitored as it will likely deepen quickly into a gale force system. .Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... the extended forecast beginning next Thursday continues with a mostly dry pattern across the southern mainland... However, low pressure will be active over the mainland and gulf. Chances for rain are broad brushed across the forecast area as an upper level low near the northern alcan border interacts with with a better organizing system over the gulf. To the west... A ridge slowly builds across the western bering Thursday through Sunday bringing a stable air mass and low level clouds and fog with it. The southwest mainland and eastern bering will be under a gustier northerly flow pattern as the pressure gradient between low pressure to the east and ridging to the west vie for dominance. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... None. Marine... Gale warning: 177 178. Fire weather... None. Synopsis and model discussion... Ap southcentral alaska... Mso southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mm marine long term... Kh

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	1 mi	44 min			51°F		1014.1 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	12 mi	32 min			53°F	1 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	17 mi	32 min	N 2.9 G 2.9	50°F			1014.6 hPa	42°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	19 mi	32 min	ENE 8	51°F			1013 hPa	44°F
HMSA2	19 mi	20 min	ENE 8 G 11	49°F			1014 hPa	41°F
APXA2	23 mi	77 min	ESE 6	38°F			1015 hPa	35°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	39 mi	32 min	NNW 7 G 8.9	58°F			1013.9 hPa	37°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

Last 24hr

NE15 G23

NE15 G21

NE15 G22

NE18 G24

NE15 G21

NE12 G20

NE14 G19

NE16 G24

NE18 G25

NE14 G25

NE17 G24

NE15 G22

NE14 G20

N12 G18

NE13 G19

N12 G16

N10 G13

N10 G13

N10 G14

NE10 G16

NE12 G17

NE11 G15

N11 G14

N8 G11

1 day ago

NE15 G21

NE19 G29

NE15 G24

NE12 G20

N16 G20

N18 G25

NE17 G26

NE14 G22

NE13 G22

N17 G26

N17 G23

NE11 G21

NE13 G20

N12 G16

NE11 G20

NE12 G15

NE9 G14

NE15 G23

NE15 G24

N18 G24

NE14 G21

NE11 G18

NE14 G23

NE16 G23

2 days ago

SW5

S11

S10

S7

S14 G17

S7 G10

SW13

S11

S6

S7

S6

S8

S7

S7 G10

S4 G10

S10 G14

SE2 G5

NW3

N7

--

N5

E7

NE12 G17

NE14 G22

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	1 mi	69 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	41°F	37°F	86%	1014.4 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	18 mi	69 min	NNE 3	10.00 mi	Fair	44°F	37°F	79%	1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASO

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

Last 24hr

--

--

Calm

3

4

N9

N7

5

N9

4

--

NE14 G21

N9 G15

N8 G15

N7

Calm

--

--

Calm

--

--

Calm

Calm

Calm

1 day ago

--

NE6

Calm

--

N3

N4

6

Calm

5

--

--

N9

NW4

N9 G17

5

N4

Calm

Calm

Calm

--

Calm

N9

S3

Calm

2 days ago

--

--

--

5

S9 G16

6

S5

--

6

--

S7

3

--

S7

6

--

S7

--

3

Calm

--

E4

3

N7 G14

---

Tide / Current Tables for Seldovia, Alaska

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Tide / Current Tables for Port Graham, Alaska

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Weather Map and Satellite Images

       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

   (on/off)   Help

---

Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.