Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 10:08PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 3:34 PM AKDT (23:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:37PMMoonset 3:22PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 639 Am Akdt Wed Aug 12 2020
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog in the morning.
Tonight..SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 121237 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 437 AM AKDT Wed Aug 12 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The upper low from yesterday remains just north of the Alaska Range early this morning, and it will continue to influence local conditions by generating thunderstorms and showers over much of Southcentral Alaska today and tonight. A strong shortwave extends southward from the aforementioned upper low through Southcentral, then runs westward through Kusko Bay then turns northward past Yukon Delta. Increased moisture and rainfall have shifted further east of Wrangell Mountains and further north of Alaska Range. West of this low, an upper level high will maintain low level clouds/stratus over much of Kusko Bay and Bristol Bay early this morning, then gradually weakening with daytime heating. A vertically stacked low near the Aleutian Islands is centered northwest of Atka, and weather reports indicated an extensive area of patchy fog and low clouds over Bering Sea and Aleutians. South of the Aleutians, an elongated area of tropical moisture or baroclinic zone runs through eastern Aleutians and south Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and this will bring increased moisture and clouds over western Gulf throughout today.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Computer model resolutions are in accord for most of the large scale features except on the motion and location of the emerging low south of AKPEN in the coming days. Although the synoptic low over the Aleutians will strengthen the next circulation overlaid by the baroclinic zone, solutions begin to split starting Friday morning as this emerging low enters western Gulf through the weekend. Overall, solutions are doing a good job handling the latest weather pattern.

AVIATION.

PANC . The main forecast challenge would be forecasting thunderstorms today and tonight, especially whether thunderstorms will occur nearby or right over Anchorage Bowl. Shower bands continue to move from south to north, with the anticipation of increased showers later in the day. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions will prevail.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A broad upper trough over Southcentral will continue showery weather across the region. Cold air aloft and a strengthening thermal trough will increase afternoon and evening thunderstorm potential over inland areas from the Kenai Peninsula to MAT-SU Valleys (including Anchorage Bowl) and Copper River Basin through Thursday. Southcentral overall will experience a slow warming and drying trend. Weak offshore flow with localized outflow winds tonight will diminish on Thursday and give way to afternoon seabreezes. Patchy fog will diminish in inland by the mid morning hours.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Expecting a pattern change to occur late on Wednesday as the upper level low that has provided lift for afternoon and evening showers moves off to the southeast. There is a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two over the Western Alaska Range today due to the shortwave and some mild instability building over the region throughout the day. Otherwise, the weather is looking hot and increasingly dry through Fri as a ridge builds over the central Bering Sea. This ridge location puts Southwest in the zone of subsidence, with offshore surface flow from the interior also helping to dry things out.

The southern AKPEN should be the only area to receive rainfall starting early Thu morning. Models indicate a slight perturbation in an area of baroclinicity embedded within the jet to the south of the Aleutian Chain. This perturbation is expected to form into a surface low that will move off of the southern AKPEN coast Thu morning. As the system moves north, it's expected to absorb the remnants of an upper level low over the Central Aleutian Chain. This will bring persistent rain over the southern AKPEN through Fri as the two systems interact.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

An occluded low over the Central Aleutians Wed is expected to continue to weaken as it moves slowly east through Thu. The weather impacts from this storm will continue to be rain and light winds. To the north, surface high pressure currently centered over St. Lawrence island is expected to expand and occupy the northern and central Bering by Fri. This should keep the winds on the light side and also create some fog and low stratus. The pattern will then again to change over the Western Aleutians Thu night as the next frontal system comes in. Models are in good agreement in regards to small craft advisory winds and rain from Shemya to Amchitka by Friday. Some solutions indicate Gales over the Western Aleutians by Friday night but there is still uncertainty in this forecast.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday).

Aleutians/Bering: Light winds with high pressure moves into the Eastern Bering for Sun. A North Pacific low and its front moves into the Western Bering through Sun. While the track and development of the low vary through the forecast, confidence is good for the front to spread showers and Southeasterly small craft winds and waves with local gales developing over the Western Aleutians Eastward for Fri afternoon. As the low tracks into the Western Bering, winds and waves will wrap the low and spread into the Eastern Bering by Sun. Southerly winds move with the front, Easterly then Northerly follow behind the low.

Gulf of AK: High pressure over the Gulf dissipates for Sat. A North Pacific low and its front moves along the Southern Gulf through Sun. Confidence is good for showers and Easterly small craft winds and waves across the Southern Gulf to spread Northward mostly in the Eastern Gulf through Sun. High pressure enters the Western Gulf Sun.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sat through Tue). Model agreement has began to improve a bit with the track a developing North Pacific low moving into the Western Aleutians this weekend. While there are small differences with regards to timing, there is general consensus that this system will bring gale force winds and rain to the Western-Central Aleutians for Saturday. This agreement then quickly breaks down Sunday into early next week, especially when looking at the last 2 runs from the GFS. The GFS has begun to trend with a much deeper low tracking into the Bering Strait, while the EC/CMC and other ensembles continue to track this system much weaker through the AKPen. After coordinating with WPC, the long term forecast will treat these GFS solutions will be treated as an outlier for now, but this will need to be continue to be monitored. If other models begin to trend this direction, significant changes to the forecast will be needed for the Southwest Mainland early next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/DK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi46 min 53°F1014.3 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi34 min WSW 5.1 G 5.1 55°F 1014.8 hPa (+0.0)52°F
HMSA2 19 mi22 min W 7 G 11 56°F 1011.9 hPa51°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi34 min WSW 8 G 8.9 55°F 1015.2 hPa54°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi41 minN 510.00 miFair60°F54°F80%1014.7 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi42 minW 710.00 miShowers in Vicinity61°F53°F77%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASO

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmCalmS6S5S6Calm453CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE346N5N5
1 day ago46NE54NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6N3CalmN5N5N6N6
2 days ago46566S9
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5556S5S44SE3Calm3433Calm3

Tide / Current Tables for Seldovia, Alaska
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Seldovia
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:20 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:10 AM AKDT     4.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:33 AM AKDT     12.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:01 PM AKDT     7.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:20 PM AKDT     14.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.37.35.755.36.47.99.51111.91211.210.18.87.77.37.7910.612.313.714.414.313.1

Tide / Current Tables for Port Graham, Alaska
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Port Graham
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:21 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:56 AM AKDT     4.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:25 AM AKDT     11.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:47 PM AKDT     7.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:21 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:12 PM AKDT     13.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.56.75.455.46.57.89.110.3111110.39.38.37.57.37.9910.411.812.913.513.212

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.