Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 9:50AMSunset 3:50PM Thursday December 5, 2019 10:31 AM AKST (19:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:53PMMoonset 12:16AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 317 Am Akst Thu Dec 5 2019
Today..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
Fri night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 051300 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 400 AM AKST Thu Dec 5 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper level shortwave ridge is in place over Southcentral. This has led to the development of patchy fog in places. Meanwhile, a weak low spins over the Gulf allowing offshore flow to continue along the northern Gulf coast. Out west, a large low centered over the northern Bering is lifting a front over Southwest Alaska, bringing continued snow and blowing snow to areas along the Southwest coast. Upstream of this low, an upper level ridge is in place over the western Aleutians.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in generally good agreement through Friday afternoon. Solutions indicate that an upper level Bering low will move eastward by Friday night, though there are vast differences in the track the low takes and where it is centered over the eastern Bering by Friday night. Models also indicate that the upper level ridge currently over Southcentral becomes more amplified as it moves eastward over the Alcan border by Saturday afternoon, which would potentially yield a more active pattern over Southcentral as any developing North Pacific lows would be steered over the southern Mainland. Overall, confidence in the forecast beyond 48 hours is below average given model inconsistencies.

AVIATION. PANC . Conditions are once again favorable for fog/stratus. Light overrunning snow will develop late today. Expect MVFR conditions by the evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Fog over the Anchorage area should dissipate around noon as higher clouds begin to move over the area, but the timing on this is difficult to determine and it could clear earlier or linger into the afternoon. Westerly flow aloft will continue over the area into Friday afternoon. This will bring a weather front that is currently over southwest Alaska into Southcentral tonight. This system will be weakening as it moves across tonight into Friday morning. Some accumulating snow is possible from the Kenai Peninsula northward through Anchorage and the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys, but amounts are expected to be fairly light. Southerly flow aloft will begin to develop over the area on Friday night, signaling the onset of a warming trend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Blowing snow conditions continue for southwest Alaska as a front is pushing through. The worst conditions are along the coast where visibilities are dropping below one mile at times. The front will weaken through the day as it moves farther inland. A second front will move into the area Friday and will be warm enough to bring some rain to the coastline around Bristol Bay. Other areas around southwest Alaska will stay primarily as snow. Similarly to the first front, there looks to be enough wind with the second front to bring back blowing snow to the area into Friday night.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). The front over the eastern Bering will keep pushing east and move onshore today. Behind the first front a new low has spun up near the central Aleutians. This low is bringing another front into the area from the south. It looks to make it to the Pribilof Islands and Alaska Peninsula by this evening and is pulling up enough warm air to bring mostly rain to the area. Cold air will move in behind the front transitioning rain back to snow from west to east across the Aleutians/Bering through Friday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

The Gulf of Alaska remains quiet until early next week, when southerly flow and low pressure is expected to bring in gale force winds on Monday. Confidence is moderate in this occurring. With southerly flow we will definitely have elevated winds and waves, but to what degree is a bit of a question. Gale force looks to be a reasonable solution for now.

In the Bering, low pressure will be present in multiple areas. Two lows will be present over the weekend, one in the western Bering and the other over the Central Aleutians. Both are forecast as gale force for now. Models are quite erratic and consistency is poor both over time and between different models. We are confident in low pressure producing elevated winds and waves, but exactly where it will be windy and how strong those winds (some models think storm force) could be is a big question. We are not confident in the specifics. So we will need to hone this in the next couple of days.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday).

Long term analysis still points to southerly flow and considerable warming over the weekend for Southcentral AK. These conditions look to persist into early next week. The high amplitude ridge responsible for this looks to form rapidly Saturday along the ALCAN border and push all the way into the Arctic. We can also expect low pressure embedded in this flow to bring precipitation to coastal areas and elevate winds. However, model guidance is continuing to be inconsistent over Southcentral, so details will have to come in time. However, we are confident in a big warm up - threatening our snow pack - for Southcentral this weekend.

Out west, broad low pressure is expected to be present over the entire area. An entrenched long wave trough will have several low pressure systems of varying intensity spin through for the duration of the forecast period. Right now, the forecast starts with two low pressure systems (called a double barrel low) with one low in the western Bering and the other over the Central Aleutians. Models are quite erratic in the long term so the solution for low pressure will evolve, but there is enough agreement in models to go with this for now over the weekend. Low placement will likely change as guidance does and it should be noted that by early next week multiple lows will be rotating in the long wave trough and right now it's not clear where they will be So stay tuned.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory . 155 161. MARINE . Gales . 160, 180, 181, 185, 411, 412, 413. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . DK MARINE/LONG TERM . BB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi50 min 45°F1007.9 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi62 min 44°F2 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi32 min NNE 9.9 G 13 28°F 1007.8 hPa (-0.7)22°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 19 mi62 min E 19 25°F 1006 hPa19°F
HMSA2 19 mi30 min ENE 14 G 20 25°F 1005.5 hPa19°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi32 min SSW 11 G 12 34°F 1007 hPa (-0.7)25°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi39 minN 010.00 miOvercast25°F19°F78%1008.3 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi39 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy22°F14°F71%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASO

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12N8N8NE7N4N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN5NE5N4N7N5CalmCalmCalm4N7CalmCalmN3N5N84NE4N5N8N7N9
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2 days agoS7
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Tide / Current Tables for Seldovia, Alaska
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Seldovia
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:42 AM AKST     4.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:33 AM AKST     14.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:44 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:52 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:54 PM AKST     6.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:09 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM AKST     12.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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86.25.14.95.67.19.111.413.414.514.613.712.1107.96.56.26.77.99.611.312.412.511.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Graham, Alaska
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Port Graham
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:17 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:28 AM AKST     4.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:25 AM AKST     13.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:44 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:52 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:40 PM AKST     6.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:10 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM AKST     11.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.35.84.94.95.87.29.111.112.713.613.512.611.19.27.46.36.26.87.99.310.711.511.510.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.