Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 051300 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 400 AM AKST Thu Dec 5 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper level shortwave ridge is in place over Southcentral. This has led to the development of patchy fog in places. Meanwhile, a weak low spins over the Gulf allowing offshore flow to continue along the northern Gulf coast. Out west, a large low centered over the northern Bering is lifting a front over Southwest Alaska, bringing continued snow and blowing snow to areas along the Southwest coast. Upstream of this low, an upper level ridge is in place over the western Aleutians.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in generally good agreement through Friday afternoon. Solutions indicate that an upper level Bering low will move eastward by Friday night, though there are vast differences in the track the low takes and where it is centered over the eastern Bering by Friday night. Models also indicate that the upper level ridge currently over Southcentral becomes more amplified as it moves eastward over the Alcan border by Saturday afternoon, which would potentially yield a more active pattern over Southcentral as any developing North Pacific lows would be steered over the southern Mainland. Overall, confidence in the forecast beyond 48 hours is below average given model inconsistencies.

AVIATION. PANC . Conditions are once again favorable for fog/stratus. Light overrunning snow will develop late today. Expect MVFR conditions by the evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Fog over the Anchorage area should dissipate around noon as higher clouds begin to move over the area, but the timing on this is difficult to determine and it could clear earlier or linger into the afternoon. Westerly flow aloft will continue over the area into Friday afternoon. This will bring a weather front that is currently over southwest Alaska into Southcentral tonight. This system will be weakening as it moves across tonight into Friday morning. Some accumulating snow is possible from the Kenai Peninsula northward through Anchorage and the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys, but amounts are expected to be fairly light. Southerly flow aloft will begin to develop over the area on Friday night, signaling the onset of a warming trend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Blowing snow conditions continue for southwest Alaska as a front is pushing through. The worst conditions are along the coast where visibilities are dropping below one mile at times. The front will weaken through the day as it moves farther inland. A second front will move into the area Friday and will be warm enough to bring some rain to the coastline around Bristol Bay. Other areas around southwest Alaska will stay primarily as snow. Similarly to the first front, there looks to be enough wind with the second front to bring back blowing snow to the area into Friday night.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). The front over the eastern Bering will keep pushing east and move onshore today. Behind the first front a new low has spun up near the central Aleutians. This low is bringing another front into the area from the south. It looks to make it to the Pribilof Islands and Alaska Peninsula by this evening and is pulling up enough warm air to bring mostly rain to the area. Cold air will move in behind the front transitioning rain back to snow from west to east across the Aleutians/Bering through Friday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

The Gulf of Alaska remains quiet until early next week, when southerly flow and low pressure is expected to bring in gale force winds on Monday. Confidence is moderate in this occurring. With southerly flow we will definitely have elevated winds and waves, but to what degree is a bit of a question. Gale force looks to be a reasonable solution for now.

In the Bering, low pressure will be present in multiple areas. Two lows will be present over the weekend, one in the western Bering and the other over the Central Aleutians. Both are forecast as gale force for now. Models are quite erratic and consistency is poor both over time and between different models. We are confident in low pressure producing elevated winds and waves, but exactly where it will be windy and how strong those winds (some models think storm force) could be is a big question. We are not confident in the specifics. So we will need to hone this in the next couple of days.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday).

Long term analysis still points to southerly flow and considerable warming over the weekend for Southcentral AK. These conditions look to persist into early next week. The high amplitude ridge responsible for this looks to form rapidly Saturday along the ALCAN border and push all the way into the Arctic. We can also expect low pressure embedded in this flow to bring precipitation to coastal areas and elevate winds. However, model guidance is continuing to be inconsistent over Southcentral, so details will have to come in time. However, we are confident in a big warm up - threatening our snow pack - for Southcentral this weekend.

Out west, broad low pressure is expected to be present over the entire area. An entrenched long wave trough will have several low pressure systems of varying intensity spin through for the duration of the forecast period. Right now, the forecast starts with two low pressure systems (called a double barrel low) with one low in the western Bering and the other over the Central Aleutians. Models are quite erratic in the long term so the solution for low pressure will evolve, but there is enough agreement in models to go with this for now over the weekend. Low placement will likely change as guidance does and it should be noted that by early next week multiple lows will be rotating in the long wave trough and right now it's not clear where they will be So stay tuned.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory . 155 161. MARINE . Gales . 160, 180, 181, 185, 411, 412, 413. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . DK MARINE/LONG TERM . BB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	1 mi	50 min			45°F		1007.9 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	12 mi	62 min			44°F	2 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	17 mi	32 min	NNE 9.9 G 13	28°F			1007.8 hPa (-0.7)	22°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	19 mi	62 min	E 19	25°F			1006 hPa	19°F
HMSA2	19 mi	30 min	ENE 14 G 20	25°F			1005.5 hPa	19°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	39 mi	32 min	SSW 11 G 12	34°F			1007 hPa (-0.7)	25°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	1 mi	39 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	25°F	19°F	78%	1008.3 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	18 mi	39 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	22°F	14°F	71%	1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASO

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Seldovia, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Graham, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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