Thursday, October22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Halibut Cove, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:00AMSunset 6:27PM Thursday October 22, 2020 6:19 PM AKDT (02:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 8:40PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 403 Pm Akdt Thu Oct 22 2020
.small craft advisory Friday and Friday night...
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri night..E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Sat..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Halibut Cove, AK
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location: 59.51, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 230105 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 505 PM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The large low in the Central and Western Aleutians has a double center that can be seen particularly well on visible satellite. These two centers should merge sometime tonight or tomorrow morning. The front associated with the low in the Bering Sea and stretching over the Alaska Peninsula is meeting up with the jet stream just south of the Alaska Peninsula today. This set-up often causes a triple-point low to develop, but that does not look like it will happen possibly due to the surface low not quite aligning with the upper-left exit region of the jet stream. The ridge over mainland Alaska has held firm overall, but it is being eroded away slowly by this approaching front allowing rain to finally reach Kodiak.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in good synoptic agreement into early next week. They are also in better agreement today with slowing the speed the front is progressing into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska which should have an impact on precipitation type in these areas.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Rain and easterly gales will continue for the western Bering through late Friday as a front lifts slowly from the western Bering to the Barren Islands. As it lifts north and east, the front will stall and start to weaken, due in large part to an expansive 1042 mb high parked over the Yukon. Rain and snow will push north to the southern Kenai Peninsula by Friday morning and to Prince William Sound and portions of interior Southcentral through Saturday. A strengthening southeasterly cross-barrier flow along the Chugach and Kenai Mountains will limit precipitation for the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl. However, some overrunning of moisture out ahead of the front may produce flurries or a brief period for very light snow from Kenai to Palmer late Friday night into Saturday morning. Any precipitation that does make it to these locations will also have to deal with a dome of cold and dry air near the surface. Again, this will act to limit snowfall, as any precipitation falling into a drier layer of air will evaporate before reaching the ground. So, it will take some time to saturate the drier column of air and get any light snow to reach the ground.

Gap winds will also increase Friday as the front draws closer to the Southcentral coast. These winds will bend down toward Cook Inlet given the pressure gradient, but the northerly winds from Talkeetna to the Matanuska Valley and Anchorage will help keep the warmer air attempting to move in from the Gulf at bay.

Rain or a mix of rain and snow will linger across the Southcentral coast with snow lingering over the northern and western portions of the Susitna Valley through Saturday. The next system then tracks into the western Gulf late Sunday into Monday with a front pushing to the coast. This low looks to track into Prince William Sound and push its front onshore. This would bring an initial round of snow to much of the region late Sunday that should quickly change to rain for most locations with the exception of the mountains and the far interior Southcentral Mainland.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Strong winds associated with the frontal boundary will continue to spread across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay tonight into Friday night. A series of continuous rain will impact mostly the coastal area and portions of Southwest Alaska the next couple days, with snow falling over much of the region. The wet pattern will continue as the second front brings more rain through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A broad occluded front wrapped into a complex low south of the western Aleutians will continue to bring storm force winds over Bristol Bay tonight. Gales will persist over much of the Bering Sea and most of the Aleutians tonight through Friday night. Hazardous seas and widespread rain showers will continue especially along the path of the storm force low and its front. A good portion of snow will fall in the area around Nunivak Island between tonight and Friday, or near the most northeastern cold sector of the front. With the cold air advection moving across the Bering, only rainfall is expected over much of the region through the weekend.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Gulf of Alaska:

There is medium confidence that a slow moving front will lead to a barrier jet across the northeastern Gulf coast on Sunday. Differences in models exist over the strength of the winds associated with this feature and its extent. For now, a NAM/EC solution is preferred with gale force winds from Prince William Sound east. After this, forecast confidence decreases with an area of low pressure from the North Pacific late Sunday afternoon. At this time, the majority of model guidance indicates broad southwesterly flow from the southern Gulf into southeast Alaska on Monday. However, small craft to gale force winds are a possibility, including continuation of the barrier jet from the day before. These intricacies should be better determined with future model runs. This low looks to move inland across southern Alaska and dissipate Monday into Tuesday.

Bering Sea:

There is high confidence that the low currently over the eastern Bering will continue to be stationary and weaken through Sunday. As it weakens from a low pressure center to a trough, it will be absorbed by an area of low pressure south of the eastern Aleutians Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds should remain at small craft criteria or below during this time. Additionally, a complex low pressure system off the Kamchatka Peninsula will bring a series of fronts over the western Aleutian waters, bringing small craft winds to the area. Expect the first front Sunday, dissipating Monday, and the second front Monday moving into the central Aleutians through Wednesday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models have started coming into better agreement in regards to the ridging and longwave patterns on Sunday/Monday. A high amplitude trough and associated weakening low slowly push east towards the Southwest shore on Sunday, while a ridge builds over the North Pacific. Warmer air flows in behind the ridge, increasing temperatures slightly for Southern Alaska. The GFS was the previously the biggest outlier with how far inland this warmer air goes, however, the ECMWF has started showing more agreement with the GFS, bringing warmer air into the region. The trough pushes east, flattening the ridge, before being forced south by an incoming strong wave out of the north. Model solutions are agreeing well that this arctic wave pushes southeast across the state Tuesday into Wednesday, which will bring colder air towards Southcentral along with it. Any precipitation associated with this wave will likely be snow.

A ridge sets up over Southwest/eastern Bering behind the longwave trough. This pattern may be short-lived as a low pushes out of the south towards the Central Aleutians late Wednesday night. The path is relatively consistent across most models, but strength and center location vary greatly.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . STORM WARNING 160. GALE WARNING 130-132,136-138,351,352,150,165,170,172,174,177,178, 180,181,185,411,412,414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CB MARINE/LONG TERM . CK/KM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 12 mi49 min ESE 13 45°F 1025 hPa29°F
HMSA2 12 mi27 min ESE 6 G 12 45°F 1023.6 hPa30°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 27 mi49 min 48°F1026 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 33 mi49 min 45°F 50°F2 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 43 mi19 min E 7 G 9.9 42°F 1026 hPa (-0.0)34°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 57 mi19 min E 28 G 33 45°F 1024.5 hPa35°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK17 mi26 minE 10 G 1410.00 miFair45°F28°F53%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE6NE6------------------NE5NE8--E10NE12NE14
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1 day ago4CalmCalm------------------NE5N5N5CalmNE7NE8NE9E10E10E10E9NE8
2 days ago43N4----------------CalmN5N5CalmN5NE5NE5--E633E53

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:52 AM AKDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:38 AM AKDT     16.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:11 PM AKDT     5.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:34 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:11 PM AKDT     17.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:39 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.40.93.87.511.314.516.516.715.312.79.675.76.38.311.214.116.417.516.914.811.78.2

Tide / Current Tables for Sadie Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Sadie Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM AKDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:37 AM AKDT     16.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:12 PM AKDT     5.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:10 PM AKDT     16.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:41 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.50.83.57.110.81415.916.114.812.39.46.85.66.18.110.813.615.816.916.314.311.37.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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