Sunday, February28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chenega, AK

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 6:25PM Sunday February 28, 2021 6:49 PM AKST (03:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:34PMMoonset 8:55AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 253 Pm Akst Sun Feb 28 2021
.gale warning tonight...
Tonight..W wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..E wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Mon night..W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu through Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chenega, AK
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location: 60.33, -148.15     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 010256 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 556 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The low pressure system over the Gulf is continuing to move east, although the eastward progression is slowing some. The precip over eastern Prince William Sound and points east will continue in favored areas but, in general, will weaken in intensity. An amplified mid- to upper-level ridge continues to work its way east and is currently moving into western Alaska and the eastern Aleutians.

Deep low pressure continues over the western Aleutians and western Bering. This system continues to produce widespread storm to hurricane force winds, seas over 45 ft, and areas of heavy, blowing snow. This system is also pulling some warmer air northward, however, so periods of rain are also expected mainly along the Aleutian chain.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are still in good agreement through the middle of the work week. The strong low pressure system over the Bering Sea will continue to move east, crossing the Bering and eastern Aleutians on Tuesday, then continuing into the Gulf of Alaska, gradually weakening as it does so.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions will persist through today and much of the overnight period. Expect light to moderate snow to move into the area between 14-16z with periods of heavy snow possible.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday afternoon) .

Snow showers are tapering off and skies are clearing from west to east as an upper ridge builds over the region. Temperatures will subsequently drop to near or below zero across much of the region by early Monday morning. Northerly gap winds will likewise diminish as a Gulf low departs to the west.

An occluding front associated with a broad low in the Bering will quickly approach Southcentral early Monday morning. An upper level shortwave will allow for the formation of a surface low near Kodiak. This will take a similar track to the previous low; however, moisture associated with the aforementioned front will allow for snow accumulations west of the Chugach Mountains and minimize any initial downsloping. Thus, light snow will continue from early Monday morning through the evening. Approximately 3 to 5 inches are expected across the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Similar totals are likely along the Prince William Sound coast. More benign conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with offshore flow developing bringing clearing skies.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Recent clear and cold conditions across Southwest Alaska will soon transition into an active stormy pattern as a front arrives to the coast this evening. Gusty easterly winds will pick up, especially across coastal locations as the front pushes inland. One challenging aspect of the forecast has been temperatures. After persistent cold temperatures at the surface over the last few days, southerly flow in the midlevels is expected to erode this cold air rather quickly. Snow is still expected across the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley, however locations across the Alaska Peninsula may see a rain/snow mix at times as warm southerly flow lifts northward. This front is well occluded, however, so most of the warmer air will be kept at bay south of the Alaska Peninsula. Snow and blowing snow is still expected to cause limited visibility overnight through early Monday, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.

As the low center moves over the central Bering Monday afternoon, gusty west to southwest flow is expected as colder air fills in on the backside of the low. This will allow for a showery pattern, with snow showers likely to last into Tuesday. Additionally, one other thing we are keeping an eye on is a long westerly fetch across the eastern Bering that may bring the potential for surge along coastal areas of Bristol Bay sometime late Monday into early Tuesday. Confidence remains low at this time, however we will continue to monitor this.

As the low center continues to track southward over the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday, winds will become northerly across the coast. Snow showers are expected, and visibility may be reduced at times across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast Tuesday morning. However, precipitation is expected to end quickly from north to south, as much colder, drier air arrives across Southwest Alaska from the north for Wednesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A hurricane force low centered north of Shemya continues to bring impactful weather to the Bering Sea. The leading front continues to move eastward, bringing gusty southerly flow to the Pribilofs, central Aleutians, and eastern Aleutians. On the backside of this low, westerly winds have filled in across the western Bering with snow and blowing snow conditions. As the leading front continues to track eastward, high winds will spread across the Chain through Monday. A triple point forms along the initial front over the Alaska Peninsula early Monday and then moves into the Gulf. However the parent low moves from the northern Bering north of the Pribilofs to the eastern Bering by Monday night. As a result, gusty westerly winds over the Pribilofs will eventually shift to northerly, with potential for continued snow and blowing snow which may reduce visibility at times Monday through Tuesday. A much colder airmass arrives over the Bering in the wake of this low Tuesday night, while another front arrives over the western Aleutians Wednesday morning.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday).

Bering: Upper level disturbances move over the Central and Eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula. Forecast confidence is good. Widespread high end gale force winds and waves will diminish Thu. Waves to 20 feet subsiding. A well developed low and front move across the Bering from the West through Fri. The front brings widespread high end gale force winds with areas of storm force winds to the Central Bering, diminishing late Thu, while the wind wrapped low holds onto widespread gale force winds through Fri. Waves building to 26 feet through Fri.

Gulf of Alaska: A low exits the Southern Gulf for Thu, with outflow winds from the Alaska Peninsula right behind. Models vary, but confidence is good. Widespread high end gale force winds and waves spread from the Shumagin Islands to the Barren Islands into the Western Gulf through Thu. Waves to 17 feet across the Southern Gulf, subsiding. The next low and front approach the Southwest Gulf Fri.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday).

Generally quiet weather is expected for the long term forecast period, especially across Southcentral. The period is expected to mainly be dominated by a strong upper level low over northeastern Russia that will continue to send rounds of Arctic/Siberian air across much of Alaska especially early on. Upper level ridging will periodically build north and try to cut off this cold air as storm systems move north into the Bering and along the eastern periphery of the upper level low. As a result, a frontal system is anticipated to move into Southwest Alaska on Thursday with some snow. However, this front won't have much progress into Southcentral as another lobe of cold air Will quickly try and push across southern Alaska behind it. The front will be quickly pushed southward across the Alaska Peninsula and into the North Pacific. The main weather concerns for Southcentral will mainly be the winds through the typical gaps, bays, and passes. Temperatures are also expected to remain well below normal for at least the first half of the forecast period with some warming heading into Saturday and Sunday though remaining either slightly below or near normal.

Towards the very end of the period on Sunday, models are keying in on an upper level ridge setting up across much of southern Alaska as the upper level low over northeastern Russia moves southward into the western Bering bringing colder air to this area and starting to bring milder air north into Southcentral. The storm track looks to also become more active starting Sunday as another system traverses the Bering and eventually into the Gulf early next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 155 195. HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191. MARINE . HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 178. STORM WARNING 170-177 185 411 413 414. GALE WARNING 119-121 125 129-132 136-138 150 160 165 179-181 185 351 352 412. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 130 139 150 160 165 179 180 185 412 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . NR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/MV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 33 mi59 min W 25 G 33 31°F 41°F3 ft996.4 hPa (+3.9)17°F
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 60 mi59 min N 7.8 G 12 39°F 42°F12 ft995.5 hPa (+4.2)
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 69 mi49 min 42°F999.3 hPa (+3.2)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PATO

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Chenega Island, Dangerous Passage, Alaska
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Chenega Island
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Sun -- 02:11 AM AKST     11.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:02 AM AKST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:54 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:05 PM AKST     13.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:18 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:27 PM AKST     -2.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:34 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.410.91211.59.76.93.81.40.41.33.871012.213.112.510.373.30-1.9-1.80.33.6

Tide / Current Tables for Eshamy Bay, Knight Island Passage, Alaska
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Eshamy Bay
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Sun -- 02:13 AM AKST     12.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:00 AM AKST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:54 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:07 PM AKST     13.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:17 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:25 PM AKST     -2.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:33 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.811.312.41210.17.23.91.40.41.447.210.312.613.61310.87.33.40-1.9-1.70.53.8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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