Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Salamatof, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 10:02PM Friday August 14, 2020 5:24 AM AKDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:28PMMoonset 6:07PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 407 Am Akdt Fri Aug 14 2020
Today..W wind 10 kt becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Tonight..W wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salamatof, AK
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location: 60.57, -152.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 141242 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 442 AM AKDT Fri Aug 14 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Northeast flow continues across the interior and upstream of the upper trough over the Eastern Gulf this morning with a smaller easterly wave tracking into the Southcentral area. This embedded/easterly wave most likely aided in the development of another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the Talkeetna range & Kenai peninsula to a lesser extent on Thursday afternoon despite relatively dry lower levels visible on low level water vapor and 00z AFC sounding. An expansive upper ridge continues to build over the northern 2/3 of the state and over the Bering Sea with mainly clear and dry downstream conditions dominating much of the Western interior. The remaining feature of note is the low crossing from the Southeast Bering into the North Pacific near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula as it begins to interact with the upper level jet and the broader trough in the Gulf. Areas of light rain and dense overcast from False Pass to Chignik have been observed to the north over the past few hours near the low center. Meanwhile, marine stratus extends to the west across most of the Aleutians and Western Bering underneath the aforementioned ridging and surface high pressure. Fog has been more scarce this morning with somewhat warmer conditions filtering in from the north and the general lack of widespread precip over the past day or so. Aside from a few areas of broken/scattered clouds rotating through the Southeast and Copper River Basin, another fairly calm and clear morning is underway once more for most inland areas.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Numerical models are aligning well in response to existing upper level features including the circulations near surface. Of these synoptic pattern, an upper level low over the Gulf is sandwiched between two separate but broad areas of highs aloft. The pressure and wind gradients will continue to steepen as well as the elongated ridge north of the upper low through the weekend. Essentially, this low will exit the Gulf into the North Pacific starting Sunday morning, while the ridge settles undisturbingly along the Yukon Territory through the north of Kuskokwim Mountains into early next week.

Over the Bering, an amplified upper level ridge will shift inland starting Friday night, and this should keep stratus/fog over much of the Bering before the next frontal boundary creeps over western Aleutians starting Sunday morning. As a result, solutions are much more improved on this forecast package.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday with the exception of a few showers passing near PANC the next couple days. Light winds will gradually rise to 10 to 15kt from the NNE overnight Friday night, with gusts picking up to around 20 kt on Saturday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today through Sat night).

A pattern change to drier, warmer, and windier conditions starts today and continues into the weekend.

A broad upper low over the Gulf moves slowly south through the weekend as ridging builds over the mainland. This will set up offshore flow today which will strengthen into Saturday afternoon. The result will be strong outflow winds across the North Gulf Coast, Prince William Sound, and the western Kenai Peninsula. Brisk northerly gap winds will also develop over the Susitna Valley, NE winds over the Matanuska Valley, and northerly gap flows through the Alaska Range. These outflow and gap winds will strengthen through this afternoon and should peak Saturday before diminishing Saturday night. Accompanying the winds will be warming temperatures with many areas getting in the upper 60s to upper 70s with the warmest temperatures inland through Saturday. Coastal areas will not be immune to the warm temperatures as compressional warming and strengthening offshore flow will hold out the afternoon seabreezes.

Before the drying occurs, there is still a chance of afternoon and evening showers today. There may even be enough instability to kick off a few wet thunderstorms along the Talkeetna Mountains. Then the drying and ridging aloft take over.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An upper level ridge is expected to dominate the pattern for the forecast period for most of Southwest Alaska. Sensible weather- wise anticipate dry conditions with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to 70s through the weekend. An enhanced pressure gradient will set up later today and Saturday resulting in breezy winds for portions of SW AK.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The high that has been hovering across the northern Bering Sea will re-orient and bisect the Bering north to southward. Portions of the central and east Bering might even see blue skies. Looking upstream, a gale force frontal system will continue to move towards the western Aleutian Chain. This is a mature low that will deepen a little bit more today. As time elapses, the surface low will jump the chain and move into the western Bering. This system has a deep fetch of tropical moisture with it. Looking at satellite imagery this plume of moisture extends west of the Marianas Islands. Suffice to say, this system is juiced. While the surface low will move northeastward, expect the frontal to slowly push north and east. There is already some decent lightning that has been detected with this front overnight. The expectation is that more convection will percolate with this baroclinic zone this forecast package.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Aleutians/Bering: A North Pacific low and front move across the Aleutians and Bering through Tue. While the track and development of the low are mixed through the end of the forecast, confidence is good for showers and small craft winds and waves to move with the front over the Aleutians and Bering. Some local gales may be possible West of St Matthew Island and diminishing Sun as the winds wrap around the low through Tue. As the front enters the Eastern Bering Mon, the winds dissipate. Northerly small craft winds and waves continue over the Western Bering behind the low through Tue.

Gulf of AK: A Southern Gulf low dissipates over the North Pacific by Tue. Confidence is fair for showers and Northerly small craft winds and waves over the Western Gulf for Sun. Several troughs move around the dissipating low through Tue. Confidence is good for local Easterly small craft winds to develop along the North Gulf Coast through Tue. A new front enters the Western Gulf for Tue. Confidence is good for showers and Southerly small craft winds over the Western Gulf for Mon and Tue.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Mon through Thu).

There is good model agreement that the amplified ridge will begin to break down on Monday, with one piece lifting northeast and phasing with the North American ridge and the second retreating south over the North Pacific. This transition comes as a result of the Bering low sliding southeast over the AKPEN, lifting a second upper-level wave into the Gulf of Alaska. Upstream, yet another upper-level low dives into the Bering from Siberia. These features will all work to establish a long-wave trough right where the ridge was over the weekend. The resulting flow will turn southeasterly over the Gulf and Southcentral, ushering in moisture and increasing clouds and chances for showers late Monday into Tuesday. The pattern is similar over the Southwest where a southerly flow ahead of a frontal system will also bring increased chances for clouds and precipitation early next week. By mid-week, the upper- level low in the Gulf remains as a ridge tries to build over the interior from the north. This pattern would result in a building of the thermal trough with warmer and drier conditions under a northerly flow. Periodic easterly waves transiting the region would bring a chance for afternoon and evening showers across Southcentral mid-week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AS/CB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PS MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/TM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi157 min SSW 11 G 13 56°F 1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK47 mi32 minSSE 510.00 miFair49°F46°F93%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW6W7W10W8W8W7SW12SW9S10SW11SW11S10S5S6S5SE5
1 day agoCalmS3S3S4S7S7SW6W7W75SW5SW5SW6SW6W7SW4S7S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE3CalmSW3S7SW8SW10SW10SW9SW6SW4SW4CalmSW3SW3W6CalmE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Drift River Terminal, Alaska
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Drift River Terminal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:08 AM AKDT     14.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:51 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM AKDT     4.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:05 PM AKDT     13.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:44 PM AKDT     9.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:07 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.614.313.311.79.87.864.84.55.26.78.810.912.41312.812.111.1109.29.19.811.212.9

Tide / Current Tables for Tuxedni Channel, Alaska
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Tuxedni Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:57 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:37 AM AKDT     4.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:05 PM AKDT     11.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:33 PM AKDT     7.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.911.910.48.66.85.24.24.14.86.289.811.111.611.410.79.78.7888.710.111.613.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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