Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Salamatof, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:40AMSunset 4:41PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 1:29 PM AKST (22:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:51AMMoonset 1:25PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 657 Am Akst Wed Jan 22 2020
Today..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
Thu night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sun..N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salamatof, AK
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location: 60.57, -152.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 221324 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 424 AM AKST Wed Jan 22 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A mainly zonal flow is in place for much of the region, with short-wave ridging building across the western Aleutians, ahead of a western Pacific low. A ~998 mb surface low is also noted in various observational data, just south of Hinchinbrook Island. Following last night's snowfall, as drier air has moved in some low stratus has developed from the Kenai Peninsula through the Matanuska Valley, and across portions of the Copper Basin.

The same can be said for portions of southwest Alaska, as stratus and fog stretched from the Bristol Bay region, inland to Lake Iliamna.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

The model continuity has improved over the last 24 hours, with guidance in pretty decent agreement through early next week. After that, they only fly in the ointment is the GFS drying to lift an unusually deep (~482 dm) mid-level low into the Gulf from the north Pacific. Otherwise, all guidance suggests the main items to watch is a deep mid-level low developing somewhere across the Bristol Bay/Alaska Peninsula region, as a strong disturbance dives into the base of an intensifying trough. This is a slight shift westward, which makes sense given they now show the ridge axis stretching from the Pribilof Islands to the eastern Aleutians.

This pattern doesn't look all that dissimilar from what we seen around New Years Eve/Day, when a deep mid-level low sat in the same vicinity with the brunt of the cold air being locater west and north of the Alaska Range, while also filtering into the northern Susitna Valley, and most of the Copper Basin. The pattern also featured several lows developing or moving through the northern Gulf.

AVIATION.

PANC . Stratus continues to plague the airfield, with ceilings varying from around 800 feet to 2500 feet near the terminal. This should continue through the morning, with conditions improving around 16z. With very cold temperatures aloft, flurries or very light snow showers will continue through until these ceilings increase, due to greater cloud depth/moisture depth.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). An upper level trough will amplify over southwest Alaska through tonight. This will usher in colder air from the west, and increase the surface gradient. Offshore winds will strengthen through Thursday as a result. A 500 mb closed low will then develop along this trough just to the west of the Kenai Peninsula Thursday morning, dropping southeast into the Gulf Thursday afternoon. This will help develop a surface low in the Gulf, tightening the gradient and further enhancing the offshore winds. Precipitation will end for most areas today. The exception will be the Copper River basin, where some trapped moisture will combine with some lifting at the mid-levels to produce some showers through Thursday morning. Some moisture will wrap around the Gulf low into the Copper River basin and eastern Prince William Sound late Thursday through Thursday night bringing a possibility of some snow to those areas.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Wednesday through Friday night) .

Residual snow showers continue to move across the northern Kilbuck Mountains and are expected to taper off this morning. In its wake, this front leaves behind ample moisture which has produced widespread low level stratus and fog across most of Southwest. Interior areas of Bristol Bay may see prolonged low level stratus through midday today while the Kuskokwim Delta area should clear out by late morning.

The next big weather story for Southwest is the arrival of cold temperatures for the end of the week. As an upper level trough moves inland and "digs" southward by Thursday morning, a cold Arctic airmass will be pulled down from the north. As an upper level ridge over the eastern Bering nears Southwest, gusty northerly flow can be expected for interior parts of Bristol Bay and through the usual gaps and passes along the southern Alaska Peninsula on Friday. This combination of cold air and gusty northerly flow has the potential to create low wind chill values, especially for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Wednesday through Friday night) .

A ridge of high pressure in place over the Bering this morning will slowly drift eastward as a strengthening North Pacific low approaches the western Aleutians. Precipitation will start as snow, however a quick change to rain is expected as warm southeasterly flow quickly moves in tonight.

The main change to the forecast was an increase in sustained winds across the western Bering, particularly Thursday night into Friday morning. Although the low center ultimately never makes it into the Bering (as it encounters a blocking ridge in place over the eastern Bering), it is expected to strengthen as it lifts northward, and thus expect the possibility for some storm force winds embedded within the widespread gales through early Friday.

Meanwhile, an Arctic airmass settles over the eastern Bering for the end of the week, bringing widespread areas of heavy freezing spray to the northern and eastern Bering waters.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday).

Gulf of Alaska:

Weak low pressure will persist over the Gulf of Alaska Friday through Tuesday. Strong high pressure over the mainland coupled with the low pressure in the Gulf will produce strong outflow wind, especially out of the Copper River Delta and out of Kamishak Bay through the Barren Islands that should produce gale force wind Friday and Saturday.

Bering Sea and Aleutians:

A strong and nearly stationary low centered south of the western Aleutians will keep widespread gales with occasional embedded storms ongoing across the central and western Bering Friday. The Gales will likely be over the western bering Sea Saturday and Sunday. Seas of 20 to 35 ft are expected over a large area of the central and western Bering and Aleutians Friday. Strengthening high pressure over the eastern Bering may cause near gale force wind out of the Kuskokwim Delta Friday night through Sunday. Offshore gale force wind is also possible in the Bristol Bay area Friday through Sunday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Friday through Tuesday).

The big picture will be low pressure persisting over the Gulf of Alaska and south of the Aleutians with strong high pressure over the eastern Bering Sea and deep cold air over the mainland. For the mainland this translates to temperatures running around 20 degrees below average through the weekend. This setup favors the outflow gap winds through the coastal mountains with precipitation mainly along the coastal regions of the Gulf. Models are in good agreement with the synoptic features through Sunday then diverge with respect to the low pressure center location south of the western Aleutians beginning Sunday night. However, the impact of these differences is minor, and limited to the western Aleutians. Where the lows end up will decide whether gales occur over the western Aleutians or not.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 127 130 131 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 411 412 413 Heavy Freezing Spray warning 121 129 150 160 180 185 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . SA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi60 min 18°F 29°F1006.3 hPa
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 77 mi60 min ENE 11 24°F 1004 hPa21°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK47 mi37 minNE 710.00 miOvercast18°F12°F81%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E5E4E5E4E4NE3E3E4E5NE4NE7
1 day agoSE4SE5E3CalmE5CalmCalmNE3NE4NE6N3NE4CalmE4E8E7E4E3NE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3NE4NE4N3CalmNE3N4NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmS3S4S3S4S4S4CalmS5S5S5S4S5

Tide / Current Tables for Drift River Terminal, Alaska
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Drift River Terminal
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:44 AM AKST     16.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:32 AM AKST     5.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:50 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:48 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 02:11 PM AKST     18.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:25 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:52 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:20 PM AKST     -2.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.413.315.716.215.112.89.97.25.65.67.410.614.217.118.51815.912.37.83.3-0.2-1.9-1.51.3

Tide / Current Tables for Tuxedni Channel, Alaska
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Tuxedni Channel
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:44 AM AKST     14.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM AKST     4.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:48 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:47 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:11 PM AKST     17.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:32 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:57 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:09 PM AKST     -1.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.314.314.713.711.48.66.24.95.171013.215.81716.514.511.16.92.8-0.2-1.5-0.71.95.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.